Top Picks and Predictions for UFC Vancouver: De Ridder vs. Allen
The UFC heads to Vancouver for a card with several closely-lined fights. We'll take a look at each bout across three platforms to help determine where prospective players can find profit. Plays this week include a tireless wrestler looking to make the most of his second bite at the apple, and a veteran underdog who is always Dangerous. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Reinier de Ridder ($8,800)
I would have favored Anthony Hernandez heavily in a fight with "RDR," but we have seen late-replacement Brendan Allen wilt under pressure before, and De Ridder will flood the zone with offense the moment he hears the bell. I also don't trust Allen to survive on the ground, as he tends to rush to lock up submissions at the cost of holding a position.
Cody Gibson ($8,400)
There has been a lot to like about Gibson since his return to the organization in 2023. Even in his most recent loss to Da'Mon Blackshear, Gibson came out fast, did good work to the body, and showed an active wrestling game. He faces a much less accomplished grappler in Aori Qileng, who won't be shy about wrestling offensively, but won't be much of a threat off of his back. This should allow Gibson to work his full arsenal to put up a big score.
Melissa Croden ($7,800)
Croden would do well to lean on her size and strength here, as she faces an opponent in Tainara Lisboa who will look to crowd the pocket and work her own wrestling game. Croden has dominated fighters in the clinch on the regional scene, which doesn't bode well for someone who was finished on the ground by Luana Santos in May.
Matt Frevola ($8,300)
Frevola has a reputation as a brawler, but I expect him to put a premium on wrestling against Kyle Nelson, who does his best work on the front foot. Standing in the pocket and trading has led to unfavorable outcomes for "Steamrolla" lately, but the pace he can maintain should exhaust Nelson, who has had issues with his cardio in the past.
Bruno Silva ($7,200)
Hyun Sung Park finally stepped into the cage with an opponent he couldn't bully, and the result was four takedowns surrendered and a submission loss. While Silva isn't quite Tatsuro Taira, he is a capable grappler and should be tough enough to withstand Park's initial blitz. We saw Park suffer the first setback in his career in dominant fashion, and it's worth seeing if he can put it behind him against a scrappy fighter.
Manon Fiorot ($8,900)
Jasmine Jasudavicius is used to being the stronger fighter in the cage, but this will not be the case against Fiorot, who marches opponents down and unleashes offense. It's difficult to see how the Canadian fighter finds her footing here, as "The Beast" is the crisper striker from range, as well.
Mike Malott ($8,200)
Malott can wait on his opponent at times, but his game is far more put together than Kevin Holland's, who is too unpredictable to trust in a matchup like this. Holland has the kind of explosive offense that can sleep almost anyone on the right night, but I am siding with the fighter who is going to come into the cage with a plan.
Davey Grant ($7,500)
Grant seems like the worst kind of matchup for Charles Jourdain, who relies on space to deploy his kicking and combinations. "Dangerous" will put maximum pressure on the French fighter here and is equipped with a solid BJJ game if the fight gets to the ground.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Plays to Consider on PrizePicks
Marlon Vera OVER 60.5 Significant Strikes and Yousri Belgaroui OVER 27.5 Significant Strikes
Vera is known as a slow-starting counter-fighter, but we've seen him put numbers together against the right opponent. Aiemann Zahabi has notched 4.4 significant strikes per minute during his UFC tenure and should get in "Chito's" face as soon as the fight starts. This should result in a bout that looks a bit more like his contest with Pedro Munhoz, against whom he tallied a whopping 141 significant strikes.
Belgaroui comes to the UFC as a former kickboxer who bested Alex Pereira once in three matches. Like "Poatan," Belgarou is a clean, efficient striker with solid takedown defense. I expect the debutant to keep his feet here and challenge Azamat Bekoev in the striking realm over three rounds.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
UFC Bets to Consider
Drew Dober Wins via KO/TKO (+120)
It is difficult for me to fathom that Dober is 1-4 in his last five contests, as it wasn't all that long ago that he was viewed as a potential title contender. This step down should be just what he needs to get back on track, as Kyle Prepolec is far too comfortable in a brawl and has never faced anyone who has close to the punching power of Dober. If the 36-year-old's chin has truly been cracked, the pressure of Preoplec could spell trouble, but it seems more likely that the hand speed and athleticism of Dober will get the job done.
Danny Barlow Wins by KO/TKO (+132)
Djorden Santos is a fluid kickboxer, but "Shakur" never looks like he leaves first gear in the cage, as it often seems like he is throwing to put up numbers rather than do damage. This style will not do well against Barlow, who has notched a KO/TKO in each of his last four wins. I see this as a good bounce-back fight for Barlow after his knockout loss to Sam Patterson, as Santos should give him all the time he needs to get comfortable in space.
Stephanie Luciano Wins via KO/TKO (+650)
It's not often that I predict a women's fight to end in a knockout, but I don't believe Ravena Oliveira is a UFC-level fighter, and Luciano boasts a 5.36 significant strikes landed per minute rate in three UFC (and UFC-adjacent) fights. "Rondinha" is also a strong wrestler, which should help her keep her feet against an opponent who will try to bring her to the ground.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Vancouver this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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