Top DFS Picks and Betting Strategies for UFC Qatar
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Qatar card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 327-143-1 ~ Dog Picks 49-40-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Bekzat Almakhan +115
Bet of the Week Record: 23-15-1 +1868
DFS Lock of the Week: Denzel Freeman - 29-7
Fanduel Captain: Orolbai/Freeman
Arman Tsarukyan (22-3-0) v. Dan Hooker (24-12-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22-3 (9 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 8 decisions)
- Elite wrestler with explosive entries, suffocating top pressure, and constantly improving striking
- Dominant scrambler who excels at breaking opponents with pace, chain wrestling, and ground control
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 24-12 (11 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Tall, rangy striker with sharp knees, long kicks, and dangerous counter shots
- Durable veteran but increasingly hittable and vulnerable to strong grapplers who can crash distance
DFS Perspective: Tsarukyan is the preferred DFS play and one of the safest options on the slate. His wrestling, cardio and positional dominance should allow him to take Hooker down at will and control every phase of the fight. Hooker possesses knockout power and veteran craftiness, but Tsarukyan's speed, pressure and mat control are on a level above. Expect high takedown volume, heavy ground-and-pound and likely a stoppage for a massive DFS return.
UFC Qatar Pick: Tsarukyan
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Belal Muhammad (24-4-0) v. Ian Machado Garry (16-1-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 24-4 (5 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 18 decisions)
- High-pace grinder who relies on pressure, clinch control, and constant forward movement
- Extremely durable but low-power striking limits finishing upside; often wins through activity and control
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16-1 (7 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 8 decisions)
- Slick, precise striker with elite distance management and sharp countering
- Strong defensive instincts and improving grappling; excels at frustrating aggressive opponents
DFS Perspective: This is not an ideal DFS fight, as both men tend to go the distance. Belal's style often reduces overall scoring pace. Garry is the preferred DFS side due to his superior striking, accuracy and ability to keep the fight at his range. Belal's volume and wrestling attempts give him some floor, but Garry's speed and range control should be the difference. Expect a tactical, low-scoring decision, with Garry edging ahead in rounds due to the cleaner work.
UFC Qatar Pick: Garry
Volkan Oezdemir (20-8-0) v. Alonzo Menifield (17-5-1)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 20-8 (13 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 5 decisions)
- Technical, sharp counterstriker who excels at catching opponents as they enter
- More consistent round-winner with better output, timing, and experience against elite competition
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-5-1 (9 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Huge power and explosiveness, but extremely low pace and long periods of inactivity
- Relies heavily on single big moments rather than sustained volume or pressure
DFS Perspective: Oezdemir is the preferred DFS side. Menifield's slow pace and reliance on single shots limit his scoring potential unless he lands a clean KO. Oezdemir's sharper boxing, higher activity and countering ability should allow him to dictate the rhythm and outwork Menifield over three rounds (or catch him with a clean counter). Expect Oezdemir to control the tempo and deliver the more reliable DFS performance.
UFC Qatar Pick: Oezdemir
Jack Hermansson (24-9-0) v. Myktybek Orolbai (14-2-1)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 24-9 (10 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Unorthodox, high-volume grappler with strong top control and sneaky guillotine/punch setups
- Can be effective at range but is aging and increasingly struggles with strong, physical wrestlers
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-2-1 (6 KO/TKO, 6 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Powerful, relentless wrestler who chains takedowns effortlessly and maintains heavy top pressure
- Improving striking but wins fights through pace, pressure, and overwhelming mat control
DFS Perspective: Orolbai is the preferred DFS play. His nonstop takedown attempts, top pressure and control time give him a massive scoring ceiling, especially against Hermansson, who can be grounded and held down by stronger wrestlers. Hermansson's scrambles and submission threats give him slight GPP value, but Orolbai's motor and wrestling edge should dominate. Expect Orolbai to rack up takedowns, control time and positional scoring for one of the best DFS floors and ceilings on the slate.
UFC Qatar Pick: Orolbai
Serghei Spivac (17-6-0) v. Shamil Gaziev (14-1-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-6 (7 KO/TKO, 8 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Strong clinch-and-trip grappler with heavy top control and smooth transitions
- Effective when he gets ahead early, but slows under pressure and can be hurt in striking exchanges
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-1 (9 KO/TKO, 3 submission, 2 decisions)
- Explosive power puncher with surprising speed for a heavyweight
- Aggressive early starter who works well behind forward pressure; can gas if extended
DFS Perspective: Gaziev is the preferred DFS play. His fast starts, knockout power and ability to pressure immediately create a strong early-finish ceiling. Spivac has the grappling to turn this into a grindy affair, but Gaziev's physicality and early burst make him the more dangerous and higher-scoring option. Expect violence early, with Gaziev carrying the more reliable KO path and DFS upside.
UFC Qatar Pick: Gaziev
Alex Perez (25-9-0) v. Asu Almabayev (22-3-0)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 25-9 (6 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 12 decisions)
- Fast, technical boxer-wrestler with sharp leg kicks and strong entries into reactive shots
- At his best when he can maintain a high pace, but has struggled with consistency and defensive lapses
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22-3 (3 KO/TKO, 9 submissions, 10 decisions)
- Slick, dominant grappler with excellent chain wrestling and suffocating top control
- Underrated striking and strong cardio; excels at wearing opponents down round over round
DFS Perspective: Almabaev is the preferred DFS play. His takedown chains, positional dominance and submission threats give him multiple scoring avenues that translate extremely well for fantasy. Perez's speed and striking keep him live for early moments, but Almabaev's pressure and mat control should take over as the fight progresses. Expect Almabaev to secure takedowns, accumulate control time and potentially lock up a submission for a strong DFS return.
UFC Qatar Pick: Almabayev
Luke Riley (11-0-0) v. Bogdan Grad (15-3-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-0 (8 KO/TKO, 3 decisions)
- High-pressure, high-output striker with excellent combinations and nonstop forward movement
- Strong chin, relentless pace, and sharp body work make him a problem in extended exchanges
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15-3 (9 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Dangerous counterstriker with real pop in his right hand and clean straight-line striking
- Can struggle when backed up; prefers technical range battles over chaotic brawls
DFS Perspective: Riley is the preferred DFS play. His pace, pressure and volume create a strong scoring floor, and his ability to break opponents with activity gives him legit finishing upside. Grad has big counter power for GPP leverage, but Riley's nonstop offense should dictate the tempo and score reliably. Expect Riley to swarm, outwork and potentially overwhelm Grad for a strong DFS return.
UFC Qatar Pick: Riley
Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev (7-0-0) v. Raffael Cerqueira (11-3-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7-0 (3 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 1 decisions)
- Strong wrestler with heavy hips, excellent chain grappling, and suffocating top pressure
- Thrives when he can dictate pace, drag opponents down repeatedly, and grind them into exhaustion
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 11-3 (8 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 1 decision)
- Explosive but raw striker who relies heavily on athletic bursts and early aggression
- Defense is wide open, especially against takedowns and cage pressure
DFS Perspective: Yakhyaev is the preferred DFS play by a wide margin. His wrestling, control time and pressure should completely neutralize Cerqueira's striking. Cerqueira's only path is an early blitz KO, but Yakhyaev's durability and grappling edge make that unlikely. Expect Yakhyaev to secure takedowns at will, dominate from the top position and score extremely well through control time, potentially leading to a ground-and-pound or submission finish.
UFC Qatar Pick: Yakhyaev
Kyoji Horiguchi (34-5-0) v. Tagir Ulanbekov (17-2-0)
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 34-5 (15 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 14 decisions)
- Fast, crafty striker with elite footwork, sharp counters, and years of experience at the highest level
- Scramble-friendly grappler who can create chaos in transitions and threaten with speed and angles
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 17-2 (1 KO/TKO, 8 submissions, 8 decisions)
- Clean, technical wrestler with strong timing on entries and excellent back-taking ability
- Patient and controlled but willing to scramble when forced
DFS Perspective: This is a razor-tight matchup and an excellent DFS fight to target on both sides. Horiguchi's speed and striking could allow him to pile up points in space, while his scrambling ability may keep him from being held down for long stretches. Ulanbekov's wrestling and positional control still make him the slight DFS lean, but Horiguchi's explosiveness and reversal potential keep this far from a safe pick. Expect wild scrambles, momentum swings and a competitive score either way.
UFC Qatar Pick: Ulanbekov
Bekzat Almakhan (12-2-0) v. Aleksandre Topuria (6-1-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-2 (10 KO/TKO, 1 submissions, 1 decisions)
- Fast, powerful striker with sharp combinations and clean footwork
- Extremely explosive in the pocket; mixes angles well and carries real finishing power in both hands
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 6-1 (3 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 1 decisions)
- Well-rounded prospect with fluid grappling and effective pressure striking
- Strong on the mat and durable, but hittable in exchanges and susceptible to faster strikers
DFS Perspective: Almakhan is the preferred DFS play. His speed, power and ability to dictate striking exchanges give him a clear path to a knockout or high-volume win. Topuria's grappling makes him viable for contrarian GPP builds, but Almakhan's athleticism and finishing instincts give him the higher ceiling. Expect Almakhan to land the cleaner, more impactful shots and force Topuria into uncomfortable exchanges, making him a strong DFS target.
UFC Qatar Pick: Almakhan
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Ryan Loder (7-2-0) v. Ismail Naurdiev (24-8-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 7-2 (5 KO/TKO, 2 decision)
- Powerful wrestler with strong top control and a grinding, suffocating style
- Continues to improve his striking, using it mostly to set up entries and secure dominant positions
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 24-8 (12 KO/TKO, 6 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Dynamic, explosive striker with sharp counters and excellent athletic movement
- Dangerous early, but can be slowed down and controlled by persistent grapplers who stay disciplined
DFS Perspective: Loder is the preferred DFS side. His wrestling pressure, top control and ability to force prolonged grappling exchanges give him multiple high-scoring paths. Naurdiev's speed and KO power make him a live GPP puncher's chance, but Loder's ability to dictate where the fight takes place gives him the safer floor and higher cumulative ceiling. Expect Loder to chain takedowns, accumulate control time and wear Naurdiev down for a strong DFS return.
UFC Qatar Pick: Loder
Nurullo Aliev (10-0-0) v. Shem Rock (12-1-1)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-0 (1 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Dominant wrestler with heavy pressure, strong entries, and excellent control once he gets the fight to the mat
- Physically strong and relentless; grinds opponents down with pace and suffocating top pressure
- Height: 511" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 12-1-1 (2 KO/TKO, 9 submissions, 1 decision)
- Explosive takedowns with solid cardio
- Dangerous grappler who capitalizes on mistakes fast
DFS Perspective: Aliev is the preferred DFS play. His wrestling volume, control time and ability to dictate every exchange give him a strong scoring floor and legitimate ceiling if he racks up multiple takedowns. Rock's grappling and movement make him live early in scrambles and exchanges, but Aliev's pressure should eventually overwhelm him. Expect Aliev to do what he does best: drag it down repeatedly, accumulate top time, and potentially find a late finish through pressure.
UFC Qatar Pick: Aliev
Saygid Izagakhmaev (22-2-0) v. Nicolas Dalby (23-6-1)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22-2 (4 KO/TKO, 12 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Smothering Dagestani-style grappler with dominant top pressure and elite positional awareness
- Methodical and patient; once he gets his hands clasped, he chains takedowns effortlessly and controls rounds with ease
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 23-6-1 (7 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 12 decisions)
- Durable, crafty veteran who mixes awkward movement, cardio, and pressure to wear opponents down
- Excellent in scrambles and chaos, but vulnerable to structured, heavy wrestling styles
DFS Perspective: Izagakhmaev is the preferred DFS play. His wrestling dominance, control time and submission upside give him multiple strong scoring paths against a fighter who historically struggles to deter takedown-heavy opponents. Dalby's toughness keeps him in fights longer than most, giving him small GPP appeal, but this stylistic matchup heavily favors Izagakhmaev. Expect sustained mat control, multiple takedowns and a strong DFS total for Izagakhmaev.
UFC Qatar Pick: Izagakhamaev
Marek Bujlo (6-0-0) v. Denzel Freeman (6-1-0)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 6-0 (3 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Big, long heavyweight with decent power and a willingness to trade
- Can be slow defensively and struggles when pressured or forced backward
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 6-1 (4 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 1 decision)
- Highly athletic for a heavyweight with fast hands and explosive closing speed
- Good defensive instincts, strong hips, and a sharp killer instinct in finishing sequences
DFS Perspective: Freeman is the preferred DFS play all day. His speed, athleticism and finishing ability give him a massive ceiling, and Bujlo's defensive holes line up perfectly for Freeman's aggressive style. Bujlo can crack and stands tall enough to create volatile exchanges, but Freeman's tools, tempo and power make him the far superior DFS option. Expect Freeman to overwhelm early and likely secure another quick stoppage.
UFC Qatar Pick: Freeman
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
