Thursday NHL DFS Breakdown: Line Stacks & Strategy

I've made another small change to the magnitude of my Rating System, which has an average 49.0 Rating per game. The represents the total number of shot attempts per game either for or against, like Corsi, but it also adjusted for Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage. With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) range is a best of 56.8 (CAR) to a worst of 44.2 (ANH), and the Defense Rating (DR) range is a best of 44.1 (CAR) to a worst of 55.4 (OTT) – these numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups. I am hoping these values clearer show how good or bad a team ranks by equating it to shot attempts per game, whether those are on goal, off target, or blocked shots – they are still offensive chances for or against.

Slate Preview: Thursday, November 15, 2018

The Main Slate on Thursday has nine games and while there are a couple big favorites on the board and couple high power offenses, plus a handful of good value options, so there are a lot of choices for your DFS lineups. The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write ups with too many Offensive and Defensive Ratings. Also shown are my projected Shots on Goal, Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage. Starting Goalies are listed with either a Projected or Confirmed tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.

Expensive Line Stacks

(The number next to the player name is the power-play line they are slated to skate with, if a 0 is shown, that means they are not on either power-play line)

CGY1 vs. MON: Johnny Gaudreau-1 ($8,000 FD, $6,400 DK), Sean Monahan-1 ($7,600 FD, $6,900 DK), Elias Lindholm-1 ($6,300 FD, $5,700 DK) - This is an expensive line to invest in and they have been cold recently (one goal in past three games), but CGY1 has the chance to be the highest scoring line of the night against a Montreal team that is playing terrible defense in recent weeks (36 goals allowed in last eight games, 4.4 per game). Even through this cold stretch, all three members of this line are on a point-per-game or better pace and have gathered 24 goals and 32 assists in 18 games this season.

PIT2 vs. TB: Evgeni Malkin-1 ($8,300 FD, $6,700 DK), Patric Hornqvist-1 ($5,300 FD, $5,500 DK), Dominik Simon-2 ($4,000 FD, $4,100 DK) - Sidney Crosby is not going to play and Louis Domingue (15 goals allowed in last four starts, .864 SV%) is starting for Tampa on Thursday, so we are going to fire up the Malkin/Hornqvist line with their new linemate Dominik Simon. Malkin has been quiet lately, but with 21 points through 16 games, he is still having a big year, so the scoring will start up again soon. Consider adding Phil Kessel or Jake Guentzel as a power play coordinated solo option.

PHI1 vs. NJ: Claude Giroux-1 ($7,400 FD, $6,300 DK), Sean Couturier-1 ($6,200 FD, $5,600 DK), Travis Konecny-2 ($4,800 FD, $4,200 DK) - With Philadelphia at home they can avoid the NJ1 line to keep the elite defense of Travis Zajac (43.7 DR) off of the PHI1 line, instead garnering matchups against the other NJ lines who have a poor combined defensive rating of 51.6. New Jersey has beaten Pittsburgh twice in their last eight games, but they have lost the other six games allowing 33 goals (5.5 per game), so I think this is a good spot for Philadelphia to rebound off a loss to Florida on Tuesday.

NJ1 at PHI: Taylor Hall-1 ($7,700 FD, $7,600 DK), Kyle Palmieri-1 ($6,300 FD, $6,500 DK), Travis Zajac-2 ($4,600 FD, $5,500 DK) - Hall was a key cog in most winning lineups Tuesday and he was one of my top suggested solo plays, but the entirely NJ1 line is in play Thursday against Philadelphia. There is a chance that the Flyers use their top line (44.9 DR) in an effort to slow down the Devils' top line, but I think they will go another route and use their third line (45.9 DR) in an attempt to stop Hall, Palmieri and the newly added Zajac, who filled in for injured Nico Hischier to the tune of a goal and assist Tuesday.

NSH1 at ARI: Filip Forsberg-2 ($7,900 FD, $7,300 DK), Ryan Johansen-1 ($6,200 FD, $5,300 DK), Kevin Fiala-2 ($4,000 FD, $3,700 DK) - Aside from a shocking 4-1 victory at Washington on Sunday, Arizona has fallen apart following the injury to starting goaltender Antti Raanta, as backup Darcy Kuemper has not been able to build on some solid early-season starts. Forsberg is one of the best goal scorers in the NHL and has not skipped a beat in 2018-19 with 12 goals in 18 games so far, with Johansen accumulating 15 assists in the process. Kevin Fiala was moved to the top line in place of Colton Sissons.
Also in play: TB1/2 at PIT, NYI1 vs NYR

VALUE LINE STACKS

MIN1 vs. VAN: Zach Parise-2 ($6,500 FD, $6,300 DK), Mikko Koivu-2 ($5,300 FD, $5,000 DK), Nino Niederreiter-2 ($4,500 FD, $4,100 DK) - I rate MIN2 as a better overall line, but the Wild have recently been mixing the pieces of MIN2 in-game, resulting in a low amount of ice time where the trio plays together; on the other hand MIN1 does not break up and has played together almost exclusively. Vancouver has not played good defense recently, and goaltender Jacob Markstrom may be to blame for a lot of it as Anders Nilsson was playing well before getting hurt three weeks ago. Richard Bachman is in goal for the Orcas on Thursday.

DET1 at OTT: Dylan Larkin-1 ($6,100 FD, $6,600 DK), Anthony Mantha-1 ($4,000 FD, $4,900 DK), Darren Helm-0 ($3,500 FD, $3,700 DK)
DET2 at OTT: Gustav Nyquist-2 ($5,600 FD, $5,600 DK), Andreas Athanasiou-2 ($4,800 FD, $6,900 DK), Frans Nielsen-2 ($4,300 FD, $4,000 DK) - The hottest team in hockey? The Detroit Red Wings have won seven of their last eight games to crawl back to even on the season at 8-8-2. These Red Wing lines will be popular Thursday with a matchup against the league-worst defense of Ottawa (55.7 DR), but you can get creative with the lines by cutting Darren Helm and/or Frans Nielsen to use a solo play.

OTT1 vs. DET: Mark Stone-1 ($6,500 FD, $6,100 DK), Brady Tkachuk-2 ($3,900 FD, $5,500 DK), Colin White-1 ($3,200 FD, $4,100 DK) - I don't love the matchup or the price on DraftKings, but on FanDuel this line will likely be a great way to get exposure to the big-money lines. All three players here have flashed at times this year, so I am intrigued to see how they do together after a five minute dabble in their previous game Sunday. Detroit has not allowed more than three goals in seven of their last eight games but traveling with only one off day and going through customs in Canada can be a drain at times.

Also in play: CGY2 vs MON

Solo Forward Options

Matt Duchene-1 OTT2 vs. DET ($6,300 FD, $6,300 DK) - Duchene provides an interesting piece to add for more top power-play correlation with your OTT1 stacks; having two centers starting there will differentiate your rosters as well.

Matthew Tkachuk-1 CGY2 vs. MON ($6,100 FD, $5,600 DK) - See CGY1 above. Tkachuk (seven goals, 12 assists in 18 games) has been one of the best players in the league so far this year despite playing with little support around him at even strength; he does however draw top power-play duties with the big CGY1 line.

Jason Zucker-1 MIN2 vs. VAN ($5,100 FD, $6,000 DK) - I mentioned above how I like the MIN2 line better than MIN1, but they get broken up often during games, so why not use the cheapest piece of the group as a solo play to try and catch lightning in a bottle for the good matchup?

Craig Smith-1 NSH2 at ARI ($5,100 FD, $5,100 DK) - Smith will never wow you, but he puts the puck on net and good things happen (21 shots over last five games); he also provides a nice alternative to Colton Sissons in your NSH1 stacks where you get extra power-play correlation with Forsberg/Johansen.

Tom Kuhnhackl-0 NYI2 vs. NYR ($3,300 FD, $3,300 DK) - An in-game promotion to the second line Tuesday, after an Andrew Ladd injury, provided instant dividends as Kuhnhackl scored a pair of goals -- this is unlikely to be repeated on Thursday, but for $3,300 on both sites, you could do a lot worse.

Jordan Weal-2 PHI3 vs. NJ ($3,400 FD, $2,700 DK) - I'm going to be honest, Weal has been pretty worthless so far this year (two goals, three assists in 14 games), but there is a lot to like Thursday for him -- he has s spot on the second power play, he draws a home game against a poor New Jersey defense (50.9 DR), and most importantly he is centering Wayne Simmonds and James Van Riemsdyk, who will be playing his first game this year after rehabbing an injury.

Defensemen

(Due to extreme pricing differentials between the sites, a single list will be provided for Defensemen moving forward.)

There is just no getting around the fact that you are going to have to pay up for your defensive pairing on DraftKings on Thursday, there appears to be very few value options there. The first few guys on this list do not require much analysis, try to pair them with your line stacks:

Mark Giordano-1 CGY vs. MON ($5,600 FD, $5,600 DK) – My top blueliner of the slate Thursday, he offers a slight discount from some of the other options as well.

Shayne Gostisbehere-1 PHI vs. NJ ($5,700 FD, $5,900 DK) – Ghost has turned it on lately, and the new power-play alignment could be deadly with Giroux, Couturier, Voracek, Van Riemsdyk and Gostisbehere on the man advantage.

Roman Josi-1 NSH at ARI ($6,200 FD, $6,100 DK) – Josi has been the clear better option between him and P.K. Subban lately.

Thomas Chabot-1 OTT vs. DET ($4,900 FD, $6,300 DK) – Still absurdly priced on FanDuel, keep buying while you can for under-$5,000.

Mathew Dumba-2 MIN vs. VAN ($4,800 FD, $5,700 DK) / Ryan Suter-1 MIN vs. VAN ($5,300 FD, $4,900 DK) – This is a tough call nightly, as normal I would suggest taking the value option by using Dumba on FanDuel and Suter on DraftKings.

Mike Green-1 DET at OTT ($4,600 FD, $5,400 DK) / Dennis Cholowski-2 DET at OTT ($3,700 FD, $4,800 DK) – A month ago who would've thought we'd be talking so highly about Detroit in DFS terms? Against Ottawa on Thursday, both these guys offer immense value on FanDuel, but I would probably lean Cholowski on DraftKings, but wouldn't write off Green there.

Erik Karlsson-2 SJ vs. TOR ($6,100 FD, $5,100 DK) – This is a DraftKings-only play. While Toronto has one of the best goaltenders in the league in Frederik Andersen, Toronto allows a lot of shots and shoots the puck a lot – this puts Karlsson in great position to offer you a five-plus shot/block floor (8.0 in FD, 2.5 in DK), with upside of adding an assist or maybe even his first goal of the season.

Also in play: Ryan Pulock-1 NYI vs. NYR ($4,000 FD, $4,700 DK) / Johnny Boychuk-2 NYI vs. NYR ($4,200 FD, $3,800 DK), Robert Hagg-0 PHI vs. NJ ($4,100 FD, $3,900 DK)

Goalies

As always, make sure your goalie is starting, these articles are posted well before many teams announce their starter for the evening.

Pekka Rinne NSH at ARI ($9,200 FD, $7,900 DK) - Even with the road start, Rinne looks like the clear top choice to me at goalie Thursday night. Arizona had shown some signs of life when they won six of seven a few weeks ago, but since they they have lost four of five while being outscored by an average score of 4.2 to 2.2 during those contests. Without too much debate Rinne has been the best goalie in the league so far this year (6 wins in 8 starts, 1.47 GAA, 0.951 SV%, two shutouts), Roberto Luongo may be the only other goaltender in the discussion, so let's move onto him…

Roberto Luongo FLA at CLS ($7,700 FD, $7,700 DK) – Columbus has been playing much better defense of late, but their offense looks to be sputtering a bit (15 goals in last six games). This is not an easy start for Luongo on the road but even at 39-years old he is continuing to play at an elite level (1.33 GAA, 0.956 SV%) even when the defense in front of him may not be anything better than average (48.6 DR).

Thomas Greiss NYI vs. NYR ($7,800 FD, $8,000 DK) - Greiss scared me a little Tuesday allowing a goal on the second shot against of the game, but he settled down and 21 saves on the next 22 shots and earned the victory over Vancouver. The Rangers rate as only slightly better offensively than Vancouver (45.3 to 45.2), so Greiss is in a similar position as he was Tuesday but will likely face more Ranger shots albeit at a worse shooting percentage than the Canucks (8.9% to 10.0%); this adds up to Greiss being a good option in my book.

Also in play: Frederik Andersen TOR at SJ ($8,700 FD, $7,800 DK) – Andersen is a GPP option, and he should have a massive saves total if he can keep the goals down.

Mike Smith CGY vs. MON ($7,400 FD, $8,200 DK) – FanDuel only play. Smith has been a hard luck loser in a few recent starts but has played well, and this is a good home matchup.