This article is part of our Crashing the Crease series.
It's important to keep a level head when evaluating goaltenders, which means focusing on the big picture rather than getting caught up in the latest trends. Overreacting to short-term results can lead to underestimating a key player's value and selling low on a major asset. A prime example of the effects of short-term unpredictability is Henrik Lundqvist, whose role changed from underperforming starter to Antti Raanta's backup to surging elite starter all during my three-week absence from this column. He was pegged among the league's top goaltenders at the outset of the season and is unsurprisingly valued similarly at this point despite all the ups and downs. Lundqvist's value has remained largely unchanged since the outset of the season, but can the same be said for the rest of the top 10 projected fantasy goalies headed into the season?
ESPN's top 10 fantasy goaltenders coming into 2016-17 were: Braden Holtby, Carey Price, Martin Jones, Jonathan Quick, Ben Bishop, Cory Schneider, Corey Crawford, Lundqvist, Pekka Rinne and Tuukka Rask.
Holtby hasn't quite lived up to his No. 1 goaltender preseason status, but few owners are complaining about a 14-7-2 record, 2.08 GAA and .925 save percentage. He's still among the top assets in fantasy hockey, even though a third straight 40-win season seems just out of reach.
Price saw a slight divot in value due to an early bout with the flu, but those who held onto him through that have
It's important to keep a level head when evaluating goaltenders, which means focusing on the big picture rather than getting caught up in the latest trends. Overreacting to short-term results can lead to underestimating a key player's value and selling low on a major asset. A prime example of the effects of short-term unpredictability is Henrik Lundqvist, whose role changed from underperforming starter to Antti Raanta's backup to surging elite starter all during my three-week absence from this column. He was pegged among the league's top goaltenders at the outset of the season and is unsurprisingly valued similarly at this point despite all the ups and downs. Lundqvist's value has remained largely unchanged since the outset of the season, but can the same be said for the rest of the top 10 projected fantasy goalies headed into the season?
ESPN's top 10 fantasy goaltenders coming into 2016-17 were: Braden Holtby, Carey Price, Martin Jones, Jonathan Quick, Ben Bishop, Cory Schneider, Corey Crawford, Lundqvist, Pekka Rinne and Tuukka Rask.
Holtby hasn't quite lived up to his No. 1 goaltender preseason status, but few owners are complaining about a 14-7-2 record, 2.08 GAA and .925 save percentage. He's still among the top assets in fantasy hockey, even though a third straight 40-win season seems just out of reach.
Price saw a slight divot in value due to an early bout with the flu, but those who held onto him through that have raked in the dividends as Price has posted a 17-4-2 record, 1.90 GAA and .936 save percentage since. Now that he's back to full health, the 2015 Vezina and Hart Trophy winner is neck-and-neck with Minnesota's Devan Dubnyk for another Vezina.
Defensive-minded coach Pete DeBoer's style has continued to keep Jones' value high, as the Sharks netminder has nabbed 16 wins with a 2.13 GAA and a .919 save percentage thus far. He's easily among the league's top 10 goaltenders and still has room for improvement at age 26.
Quick's early groin injury obviously has limited his value. He's due back soon and likely will be back to his old self before long. While Quick hasn't provided much to date, his outlook moving forward hasn't been significantly impacted.
Bishop has disappointed, validating those who saw the red flags associated with Tampa Bay's preseason three-year deal with backup Andrei Vasilevskiy. There's still time for the free agent-to-be to turn things around, but his major dropoff from last season's 2.06 GAA and .926 save percentage seems permanent. Bishop has clearly slid out of the top 10 at this point.
Schneider joins Bishop among the ranks of clearly declining goaltenders, as New Jersey's shift to a more up-tempo play style has significantly cut into his value. After six straight seasons with a GAA of 2.26 or lower, that number has jumped all the way up to 2.93. The 30-year-old Schneider is still among the league's most skilled goaltenders, but he can't currently be treated like one after his recent struggles.
Crawford is nearing a return from his appendectomy, and backup Scott Darling's recent winning streak shouldn't impact his stock much. Darling has won four straight, but the old starter should be able to waltz back into the No. 1 job after opponents scored four goals in each of Chicago's past two wins. Crawford has unsurprisingly won 12 of his 20 starts for the elite Blackhawks and should continue to pile up victories once he makes his return.
Lundqvist's ups and downs were discussed earlier, but the man who just tied Dominik Hasek for the most all-time NHL wins among European goaltenders has ultimately been just fine through 23 starts. With 15 wins, a 2.34 GAA and a .920 save percentage, Lundqvist is on pace to top the .920 mark for the ninth straight season while he continues to rack up wins for one of the league's top teams. The 34-year-old continues to rank among the top options at his position, just like he has for the past decade.
Rinne has been consistent, if not spectacular, with 13-8-4 record, 2.43 GAA and .918 save percentage. Those aren't quite top-10 numbers, but it's tough to be upset with the solid Finn. He should continue to be a more than serviceable option at age 34.
Rask has been a no-doubter top-10 value with 16 wins, a 1.91 GAA and a .929 save percentage. The 29-year-old Finn has resided in the league's upper echelon of goaltenders since taking over the Bruins starting job back in 2012-13, and his career .924 save percentage indicates that he's more than capable of remaining there moving forward.
Only three of the league's top 10 preseason goaltenders have clearly underperformed expectations thus far, and one of those figures to regain his elite status as soon as he returns from his long-term injury. Panicking about many of these guys at the wrong time could've led to you losing them for pennies on the dollar, but keeping the faith is what has allowed their owners to keep reaping the benefits of having these elite fantasy assets in their lineup throughout the season. Speaking of fantasy assets, here are the top performers, risers and fallers from the past week:
Top Performers
Sergei Bobrovsky, CLM — Bobrovsky extended his winning streak to eight games with three more victories this week, and has a 1.50 GAA and .941 save percentage over that span to boot. Those last two numbers aren't even a far cry from the Russian's elite season-long marks of 1.94 and .932, respectively. The league's wins leader has worked himself into the conversation for a second Vezina Trophy along with Devan Dubnyk and Carey Price.
Henrik Lundqvist, NYR — What goaltending controversy? Lundqvist waited patiently while backup Antti Raanta delivered a spectacular four-start stretch, then countered with an excellent three-outing run of his own over the past week. The previously scuffling Swede reclaimed his rightful throne with a 3-0-0 record and 97 saves on 100 shots against the Stars, Predators and Devils. Raanta has been excellent in his own right, but this is still King Henrik's crease.
Martin Jones, SAN — Jones was successful on his four-start road gauntlet, nabbing three wins in a six-day span that saw him travel to Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal and Chicago. He hasn't allowed more than three goals in a game since Oct. 17 and ranks in the top 10 in both GAA (2.13) and wins (16). Things should only get easier for the 26-year-old goaltender, as the Sharks play six of their next eight at home.
Three Rising
Connor Hellebuyck, WPG — Hellebuyck rebounded from a three-start losing streak this week with wins over the Panthers and Avalanche during which he stopped 68 of 72 shots for a .944 save percentage. The 23-year-old netminder hasn't been able to put it all together yet, but a November stretch in which he posted a save percentage of .920 or better in six of seven appearances shows the kind of upside he possesses despite playing for a Jets team that struggles defensively at times. These back-to-back strong performances could be the start of another such stretch.
Antti Niemi, DAL — Niemi's recent play has showed that he can be effective even when he doesn't get three-plus days of rest. He put forth three consecutive strong efforts with just one day off in between each. That 2-1-0 stretch involved putting an end to Philadelphia's 10-game winning streak, with the only loss coming in a goaltending duel with aforementioned riser Henrik Lundqvist. Niemi's .959 save percentage in this stretch might be enough to separate him from the struggling Kari Lehtonen and hand him the primary role in the Dallas net for good.
Mike Condon, OTT — Condon opened the week with a loss to the Sharks last Wednesday but rebounded with wins over the Devils and Islanders during a weekend back-to-back set while raising his season save percentage to .924 and lowering his GAA to 2.25. He has now appeared in nine straight games for the Senators, and his workload seems unlikely to decrease any time soon with backup Andrew Hammond having to leave Sunday's win over New York with an ankle injury. The 26-year-old posted a serviceable .903 save percentage while winning 21 games for an underwhelming Canadiens team as a rookie last season, and is once again proving capable of dealing with the rigors of starting in the NHL.
Three Falling
Chad Johnson, CGY — Johnson came into this week on a six-game winning streak, but saw his momentum come to a screeching halt with a pair of terrible performances in home losses to the Lightning and Blue Jackets. After watching their new starter allow eight goals on just 50 shots, it wasn't surprising to see the Flames turn back to Brian Elliott against the Coyotes on Monday. While Elliott's win in that matchup isn't enough to spark a goaltending controversy yet, Johnson needs to get back on track in a hurry if he wants to maintain his status as the undisputed No. 1 in Calgary.
Calvin Pickard, COL — Semyon Varlamov's groin injury opened the door for Pickard to start three consecutive games over this past week, but the young backup failed to make up ground on the struggling starter in spectacular fashion. Pickard allowed 10 goals on 77 shots in losses to the Panthers, Flyers and Jets while posting a sub-.900 save percentage in each contest. Many have been waiting for Pickard to overtake Varlamov on the Avalanche depth chart, but now there's serious doubt as to whether he can succeed in a starting role.
Roberto Luongo, FLA — Luongo allowed eight goals on 49 shots in losses to the Wild and Jets before watching James Reimer stop 30 of 31 shots in Colorado on Monday. The veteran netminder is still the clear starter in Florida, but has just one win in his last six appearances. He needs to get going soon or risks ceding starts to Reimer as the season progresses.
