Weekly Preview: The Open Championship

The Open Championship

St. Andrews Links (Old Course)
St. Andrews, Scotland

The PGA Tour heads to storied St. Andrews for the 150th Open Championship and the final major of the season.

It has been a crazy year in golf -- more so for what has happened off the course than on it -- but the further we get away from the most recent defections to LIV Golf, the more we can focus on golf itself. That, of course, was not the case earlier this week, as the news of Greg Norman's banishment from St. Andrews took center stage. Now that's over with, I think we are finally turning a corner. We saw in some early-week interviews that the players are simply not talking about LIV any longer. Perhaps that's the best way to handle it -- just avoid it. As you can see, though, that's easier said than done, as I once again fell into the trap of writing about LIV, even though I said I wouldn't. But let's move on. 

What we've got this week is yet another major championship that appears to be fairly wide open. The odd thing is, a lot of the guys who were favored in the top events earlier this year aren't in great form right now. I'm looking at you, Scottie Scheffler and you too, Justin Thomas. Still, there are a plenty of elite golfers who have been playing well. We'll get to that in a minute, but before we do, I just want to say that we should all soak in the scenes this week. This is likely the last go-around at St. Andrews for Tiger Woods -- at least a competitive one -- so let's have fun watching the greatest of all-time, on one of golf's greatest stages -- hopefully for four rounds.
                              
All odds via golfodds.com as of 8:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Collin Morikawa shot a final-round 66 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Jordan Spieth.

FAVORITES

Rory McIlroy (10-1)

I've not been a big fan of McIlroy's at major championships in recent years, but this one feels different. Perhaps it's because it's St. Andrews. Maybe McIlroy has redemption on his mind after missing the 2015 event held here due to injury. Or maybe it's because ever since LIV Golf came to be, McIlroy has played with a bit of an edge. Now, if he has the lead Sunday, will he fold under pressure like he has done a few times since his last major win in 2014? That's really the only question, because he's going to play well leading up to Sunday. I'm certain of that.

Xander Schauffele (16-1)

Schauffele is certainly on a roll right now, but with his win at the Genesis Scottish Open, he fell into the "it's all just a bit too much" category. The only guy we've seen succeed in this category in recent years is Scheffler, who won The Masters amid an insane heater. While Scheffler can flat-out dominate when he's on, I don't quite feel the same about Schauffele. I'm sure he'll play well again, but that win last week put a big dent in his value.

Scottie Scheffler (16-1)

I'm not a huge fan of Scheffler's prospects this week, but he's got so much game that it's hard to discount him any week. Scheffler has not played St. Andrews competitively, so there's no way to know how he will adapt. However, he did post a top-10 at last year's Open Championship.

THE NEXT TIER

Will Zalatoris (30-1)

There aren't many golfers out there who don't have a win yet peak in majors, but Zalatoris is somehow pulling it off. This will be the ultimate test, though, as the Open Championship is unlike anything we saw at the last three majors. This pick is all about Zalatoris' ability to get up for the biggest events, as he won't have the metrics pointing his direction at St. Andrews. He missed the cut in his Open Championship debut last year, and he just did the same at the Scottish Open.

Collin Morikawa (25-1)

There are a few things working in Morikawa's favor this week. First, his game has improved a lot since a terrible showing at the PGA Championship in May. Second, he's the defending champion. That can be detrimental in certain cases, but I think that helps Morikawa, as he's now in the group of Open Championship winners, which makes this an even more special week. Third, the weather is supposed to be fairly tame, and as we saw at the PGA Championship and THE PLAYERS, Morikawa struggled in poor conditions.

Louis Oosthuizen (40-1)

I definitely don't like the state of his game or that fact that he will have to deal with LIV questions, but I do love his track record at St. Andrews. Oosthuizen won here in 2010 and finished runner-up in 2015. Form or no form, he knows how to get around this course.

LONG SHOTS

Max Homa (50-1)

I mentioned Homa in the Sports Illustrated Bettors' Roundtable I take part in prior to each major, but at the time he was 80-1. As evidenced by the odds above he has picked up some steam, and I'm now a little more cautious about this pick. I can't explain why I shy away from golfers who pick up momentum at the betting window, but there's something about expectations that can ruin a golfer. With that said, Homa continues to improve, and he seems like he's got it together upstairs, which is something you absolutely need to win a major. That, or an insane amount of talent.

Joohyung Kim (200-1)

Instead of throwing out the same retreads, why not try someone new? Kim was in contention all the way until the end this past week, so you know he's not intimidated by a strong field. He's only 20 years old and already has seven professional wins. Yes, they were all in Asia, but who cares? He's only 20! Maybe he's the next big thing and we'll look back on last week's performance as his coming-out party.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Rory McIlroy - I dare say there are probably a lot of OAD players who saved McIlroy for this exact spot. If you are one of them, I say bravo. As mentioned above, there are a lot of things to like about McIlroy, and really the only thing working against him is his track record in majors over the past eight years. That isn't necessarily an indicator how he will play at St. Andrews.

Moderately-owned Pick: Louis Oosthuizen - If Oosthuizen's game were in decent form, he'd be near the head of the pack on the betting board. As it is, though, he's a bit further down. Regardless of his odds, he knows this course about as well as anyone, and he's not that far removed from some good showings. I doubt I'm the only one expecting a good outing from him, and I'm expecting him to be fairly popular.

Lightly-owned Pick: Joohyung Kim - This is crazy, right? Honestly, I'd take Kim over Viktor Hovland this week. You don't have to pick a big name just because it's a major. If you are trying to make up ground, I'd rather go the route of someone with high upside who is playing well as opposed to an elite golfer who is struggling at the moment.

Buyer Beware: Jon Rahm - I'm not stating that Rahm is in danger of missing the cut. I'm simply stating that he might not contend. That's not an easy statement to make, as Rahm is just as likely to win as to miss the cut. Still, like I've been saying for a while, there's just something off with him this year, something that will likely take an offseason to correct.

Last Week: Tommy Fleetwood - T4 - $362,000

Season Total: $10,480,765

This Week: Matt Fitzpatrick - I haven't spent any time on Fitzpatrick yet, and that's mainly due to the fact he's between the favorites and the mid-tier picks. He is, however, my best remaining option. I'm not fond of taking the guy who won the last major, but if he's going to pull it off, the back end would have to be the Open Championship on a course like this. If I had everyone available I'd take McIlroy, but Fitzpatrick is by no means a consolation prize.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Matt Fitzpatrick ($11,200)
Middle Range: Louis Oosthuizen ($10,300)
Lower Range: Max Homa ($9,000)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Tyrrell Hatton - T24

Streak: 5

This Week: Matt Fitzpatrick - I'm going back to the double-up, and the main reason is that while I like McIlroy's chances, he will have a tremendous amount of pressure on him. I expect him to handle it, but you never know. Fitzpatrick won the previous major and he's still not even one of the top five storylines. There's pressure there, but not nearly as much as some of the other guys.