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2024 Genesis Scottish Open: "Summer" in Scotland
Congrats to all who were tailing us last week as we took home our fifth outright winner of the season. What a wonderful Sunday sweat watching our horse dust the field with an opening 29 on the front. A smooth 126 over the weekend and we are collecting. Davis Thompson's performance reminds me of the weekend 122 (61-61), I witnessed at the RSM Classic by Ludvig Aberg back in November. The Jordan Spieth / Justin Thomas generation better watch out, these kids are for real. How about the amateur Luke Clanton finishing in a tie for second with Michael Thorbjornsen?!?!? I absolutely love the competition. Let's hope the PGA TOUR sees the storylines developing and builds us a better schedule for 2025. Who wouldn't want to watch two or three of these kids go after Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele? I know I would.
For those who have been with us since the beginning, that's now 31 outright wins in 31 months since we started in January of 2022. Let's continue this two and half year run across the pond at the Genesis Scottish Open. A partnership event between the DP World Tour and the PGA TOUR, we have 156 players in North Berwick, Scotland ready to compete for $9 million and a $1.62 million first-place check. The top 65 and ties make the weekend in this preview for next week's final major of the season; the 152nd Open Championship.
2024 Genesis Scottish Open: Renaissance men
This is the 42nd Scottish Open. The last five have been contested at the Renaissance Club. Direct neighbors to the "Honourable Company of Edinburgh Golfers" (Muirfield), the Tom Doak design was created in 2008. Built with American ambition, each of the five Scottish Opens hosted here have been extremely entertaining. The first three even ended in a playoff. The past two have been a part of a collaboration destined to bring the PGA TOUR and DP World Tour together. The last two winners respectively are Rory McIlroy (2023) and Schauffele (2022). Weather is the biggest influence on final score as in five years they winners have ranged from seven under par in 2022 to 22 under par in 2019 (in a playoff).
The forecast calls for rain leading into the championship. This will severely soften the playing conditions. With temperatures in the high 50s, don't expect the seaside links to dry out quickly. Compounding the scoring storyline, very little wind from the Firth of Forth is expected during the tournament. All of this can change in a minute, but if this forecast holds true, look for the winning score to push 20 under par again. The par 70 scorecard only measures 7,237 yards. With five par 3s, three par 5s, and 10 par 4s, players will be making an endless amount of birdies.
Two of the par 3s are under 165 yards, all three par 5s are reachable with little wind, and half of the par 4s are under 450 yards. Length becomes a huge advantage on links courses when the wind doesn't blow across the landscape. The entire field will get a break from the number one golfer in the world. Scheffler is not competing in the Scottish Open. Quite honestly, he can take every week off until the playoffs and still be the FedExCup points leader! Six wins in mainly signature events and the Masters racks up the units. McIlroy is not just the defending champion, but the betting favorite as well. Schauffele sits a close second on the board, but Rors will be the favorite Thursday morning when we start.
We haven't seen McIlroy since the US Open. Not only will he have to answer questions about last month, and being defending champion, the Open Championship is next week. Rory hasn't played in close to a month and his last opportunity to break the ten year major drought is right around the corner. Looking for a little McIlroy preview... the last time The Open was played at Troon in 2016, he finished fifth. I expect Rory to be ready this week and in contention. The Renaissance Club is a perfect match for his game. There are a couple others I have my eyes on and you'll learn why in the outrights narrative.
2024 Genesis Scottish Open: Drive for show, putt for dough
Schauffele and McIlroy are essentially archetype players for contending at the Renaissance Club. This manufactured modern links design favors length over accuracy in more ways than one. You'll hear an endless amount of coverage about the weather, but in any future forecast the best chance you have to win is to back great drivers and putters. Doak also designed Memorial Park in Houston. Go check that TOUR stop leaderboard from back in March. It was littered with ball speed and birdie makers. The Renaissance Club presents little fear from the tee boxes. Players will be bombing away everywhere they can.
This course ranked in the bottom ten on TOUR for penalties off the tee in 2023. Even the 42 fairway bunkers won't cause concern. Consider the lack of wind predicted, and many of those off the tee hazards just won't be in play. The final two last year were Robert MacIntyre and Rory. Two guys who are great drivers and putters. Everyone remembers the famous approach finale by MacIntyre and McIlroy into a gale force wind. That Sunday was incredibly brutal. Thursday through Saturday the field played in rather benign conditions. Sunday whipped up a storm and blew most of the field away. That's what can happen around here. So as much as we want to load the card with just one type of player, we may need one or two other skill based competitors in case the weather goes sideways.
My favorite skill in golf is approach play. Bombing a drive is great, but there's nothing better for me than a tap-in birdie. Laser-like irons from long range are the best and this Doak design gives you a bunch. Three par 5s to reach in two, three more par 3s over 200 yards, and four par 4s around 480 yards. Those 10 approaches separate the field. Both Xander and Rory can really attack from 200+ yards. Our outrights will be skilled in similar shots. Seventeen greens are surrounded by 38 bunkers. Doak's design also features a number of run-off areas and some long grass around the perimeter of the putting surfaces.
Players have not needed a ton of around the green acumen to contend here. Most of the ground game involves planning the approach properly or the putter. Thankfully, we can break down who the best approach putters are. Approach putting? Who leaves the ball closest to the hole after their initial roll. Since many will use their flatstick off the green, this statistic is very helpful for the next two weeks. Players must avoid three-putting and manage their speed. These greens will be considerably slower than the John Deere, Travelers, and any other PGA TOUR venue they just played. Greens cannot be cut to insane speeds because of the wind. Should it start blowing and the greens are running 12+ on the Stimpmeter balls simply will not come to rest.
We saw putting separate the field at Memorial Park and it happens here as well. Past leaderboards contain a common thread of good links course putters. Notice I didn't say good putters. Slow greens and fescue turf is different from U.S. conditions. It really makes a difference and the primary selection criteria needed to make our card. In the end, there's a large group of guys that bomb it. The group gets smaller when you consider the long iron skill needed, but still not small enough to select a profitable card. Compare putting skill, par 3 scoring (we have five of them), past Renaissance results, and current form and now we're ready to reveal the winning names. Going for two wins in a row, here's our outrights for the Scottish Open.
2024 Genesis Scottish Open: Outright Winners
Ludvig Aberg (+1600)
Aberg has missed one cut all season and has already earned six top-10s.
- Aberg is ranked fourth in approach and fifth OTT in this elite field.
- Ludvig won the Omega European Masters in his third DP World Tour start.
- Over his last 20 starts, Aberg is gaining over six strokes on the field. 20 starts!
- He has six top 15 finishes in his last eight starts.
Aaron Rai (+5500)
Everyone has been talking about Rai for a month. At 55-1 on Monday, now is the time to capture his value.
- Rai is the 2020 Scottish Open champion.
- Aaron has gained an average of eight strokes on the field over his last five starts.
- The putter no longer fails him, Aaron has gained an average of 5.5 strokes on the greens over his last three events.
- Rai is coming off four straight top 20s.
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