Half PPR Rankings

Henry is one of a kind with no true case study for a player bearing his traits, making it especially difficult to make the right call on the question of physical decline -- something that's already difficult enough to determine for running backs. The decline always happens, but in Henry's case there's reason to suspect he can remain productive into his early 30s. As much as his career workload of 2,030 carries (2,186 including playoffs) is a concerning figure, it's defenders who tend to get the worst of the collisions that involve him, and there might be a different exchange rate of usage to decline for someone with his combination of size (6-3, 247) and speed. That combination could prove a dangerous fit in a Ravens offense that already spreads defenses thin with the rushing threat posed by Lamar Jackson. Good as Henry might be as a rusher for the Baltimore offense, he'll have a hard time matching his workloads from Tennessee and isn't likely to catch many passes (Justice Hill paced Baltimore running backs with 28 receptions in 16 games last year). The 30 year old may be even more reliant on touchdowns than in past seasons, though he at least figures to spend plenty of time in the red zone now that he's with a much better team.

Hill is the first player ever with multiple seasons of 1,700 receiving yards, having done it in both of his first two years with the Dolphins. He was on pace for a record-breaking 2,098 yards (and 17 TDs) through Week 13 last season, but then a Week 14 ankle injury cost him part of one game and all of another, derailing his MVP candidacy in the process. Coach Mike McDaniel's offense has proven even more fantasy-friendly than the Reid/Mahomes partnership Hill had in Kansas City, with the wideout playing fewer snaps than other top receivers (43.4 per game last year) but drawing targets on an unprecedented share of his routes. Last year, Hill was targeted on 38.2 percent of routes, putting him miles ahead of second-place Davante Adams (31.5). The year before, Hill was a bit lower at 34.0 percent, though still the NFL leader among players with 400 or more routes. Coming off the field on a semi-regular basis allows the league's fastest player to keep his leagues fresh and exert all his energy on each route he runs. Hill has missed just seven games in eight seasons despite heavy usage, and he doesn't seem to have lost a step ahead of his age-30 campaign, setting him up to again lead one of the league's most explosive offenses alongside QB Tua Tagovailoa and WR Jaylen Waddle.

Chase's rookie season remains his best statistical effort through three years, but there's no shortage of signs that the best may still be ahead. He missed five games in his second season whilst averaging a league-high 11.1 targets per game, and then in 2023 he was on pace for 130-1,551-9 on 187 targets prior to the week in which QB Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending wrist injury. Backup QB Jake Browning kept the offense afloat, but not Chase's fantasy production, in part because the WR missed one game with an AC joint sprain and then played fewer snaps than usual the final two weeks. Injuries haven't been the only factor, to be fair. Chase was perhaps the best deep threat in the NFL as a rookie -- 15 catches for 576 yards and eight TDs on 34 targets of 20-plus yards -- but has seen just 37 deep passes across two subsequent seasons even though his efficiency on those throws has remained impressive (15-of-37 for 528 yards and six TDs). His aDOT has dropped with each passing year (12.6 to 9.3 to 8.4) on account of the Bengals giving him fewer deep shots and peppering him with screens, slants, hitches, etc. The hope now for anyone drafting Chase early in the first round is that he can combine his rookie-year fireworks with the short-area volume from Years 2 and 3. The Bengals anticipate having Burrow healthy well before training camp, and they seemingly plan to let No. 3 receiver Tyler Boyd leave in free agency while ignoring No. 2 receiver Tee Higgins' trade request.

Barkley's career has generally been a difficult one due to injuries and the struggles of the Giants offenses, but his rare talent usually shines through and provides fantasy investors with solid production despite the grueling nature of his workloads. The hope now is that by going from the Giants to the Eagles there might be a chance for Barkley to finally find some open field as a ballcarrier, not to mention more scoring opportunities. The Eagles offense made Miles Sanders one of the league's most productive runners just two years ago, so putting Barkley in the same scheme could result in one of the league's best outputs at running back. The retirement of center Jason Kelce is a bummer, but it's something the Eagles should be able to manage, as the offensive line left behind is still much better than what Barkley ever had with the Giants. D'Andre Swift claimed 229 carries and 49 targets in 16 games last year, so those numbers probably represent Barkley's floor for usage if he stays relatively healthy in his age-27 season.

Hall's career has largely been defined by starts and stops due to his 2022 ACL tear and the constant shenanigans of the Jets offense. Even so, the verdict is clear: Hall is a star. His combination of speed, power, vision and receiving ability make him capable of finishing as the top fantasy running back multiple times before his career concludes. When entertaining upside scenarios, it's difficult to rule anything out. He's averaged 4.8 YPC to this point in his career and appears capable of leading the league in rushing, yet his 76 receptions from 2023 imply he can also lead NFL running backs in receiving production. Perhaps both in the same season is on the table? Hall should be in much better circumstances this year, assuming 40-year-old QB Aaron Rodgers isn't totally cooked after suffering an Achilles' tear last season. The Jets improved the rest of their offense this offseason, signing LT Tyron Smith and WR Mike Williams, trading for RT Morgan Moses and then drafting OT Ola Fashanu (first round) and WR Malachi Corley (third round). They've now got both depth and high-end talent along the offensive line, a unit that was hard-hit by injuries last year and ultimately had 10 players top 200 snaps. With a better team around him and another year removed from the ACL tear, Hall may be headed for a truly special season.