Yahoo DFS Football: Week 3 Picks

Yahoo DFS Football: Week 3 Picks

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.

Before jumping headfirst into the whirlwind of fun that is Yahoo Daily Fantasy Football, be sure to differentiate from the variety of games offered. Since Head-to-Heads, 50/50s and Double Ups pay nearly half of entrants, your best bet to cashing is to target players with higher floors. Think heavily-targeted number one WRs, RBs who get the bulk of a team's carries and upper echelon QBs in match-ups with a tight Vegas point spread and a high total.

Tournaments / Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs) require a bit more of your inner contrarian – target offensive players with higher ceilings in advantageous matchups. Huge point totals can come from the most unpredictable of places – the most obvious plays are not always the right ones. Though previous week's performances should be noted, each new week of action should be considered its own season. Don't chase last week's stats.

TOURNAMENTS (GPP – GUARANTEED PRIZE POOL)

Dak Prescott (DAL, $25)

Prescott makes an appearance as the GPP quarterback du jour this week after failing to live up to the Week 1 chalk hype. Prescott ran one in against the Redskins in Week 2, but has yet to connect on a pass TD in his short career. He came close a couple of times last week and of course he and Dez Bryant had their Week 1 touchdown connection reversed after a review. So why is the rookie QB even on our radar this week when we have at least a half dozen safer options? Well, with a sticker price of 25 dollars, Prescott is anywhere between 20 and 30 percent cheaper than most of this week's studs. The Cowboys have a Sunday night prime time date with a Bears squad whose defense is in shambles after losing linebackers Danny Trevathan and Lamarr Houston. With less pressure on their already top-end offensive line, and the ability to establish the running game with rookie back Ezekiel Elliott, Prescott could have plenty of time to make good decisions. He has distributed his targets fairly evenly among Dez Bryant (18), Cole Beasley (17) and Jason Witten (17) so far this season and it's time for them to connect on some red zone celebrations. With everyone spending their QB dough on the likes of Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers, you can go against the grain by playing Prescott this week and spending up for a high-end WR and RB.

Mark Ingram (NO, $27)

There are a few reasons why Ingram will be the guy folks are least excited about from this divisional battle Monday night. For starters, Drew Brees returns home, and everyone remembers how loose he and his receivers got in Week 1. The next reason is Ingram's expensive price tag. There really isn't much appealing outside of Matt Forte (NYJ, $29) in his price range though, and you know how hard it will be for people to avoid building around either DeAngelo Williams (PIT, $37) or David Johnson (ARI, $36) this week. Finally, and most importantly, what has he done for us lately? Ingram is off to a rough start and has been sparingly used, combining for a paltry 88 rushing yards on just 21 carries over the first two weeks. Ingram racked up a whopping 50 receptions last season but has been under-utilized as a pass-catcher so far, though he has snagged all six targets thrown his way. The Saints-Falcons clash on MNF boasts this week's highest projected point total at 53.5. Ingram only faced the Falcons once last season, but ran the ball 20 times and got into the end zone twice. There's no place where last week's trash becomes this week's treasure more than in fantasy football. With the whole world putting all their chips in on the passing game, why not bet on a low-percentage Ingram revival.

DeVante Parker (MIA, $18)

This is my guy and I'll faithfully stick with him through thick and thin. I'm a believer in his talent and big play ability. Sure, Parker has a long injury history and conditioning concerns throughout college and his rookie season, but the one thing we can't knock is his upside. This week's price tag is reasonable and the Week 3 matchup with the hideous Browns' secondary is as juicy as it gets. Parker was inactive in Week 1 but stepped up to the plate against the Patriots last week, catching eight of the 13 targets thrown his way for 106 yards. Parker has either caught a touchdown or exceeded 80 receiving yards in six of his last seven games dating back to last season. As for this Sunday, Arian Foster is dinged up and the coaching staff seems to have little faith in their run game, so the Dolphins may go full aerial assault with Captain Tannehill. We all know Jarvis Landry will get a boatload of targets, but he's less red zone friendly than Parker and will cost you 10 bucks more. Parker has tremendous separation skills and wins 50/50 balls from the best corners in the game. So when you see "vs. Cleveland" on the schedule for a guy like Parker, you just take the free square and ruminate elsewhere.

Other Against-the-Grainers

QB: Blake Bortles (JAX, $32)
RB: Eddie Lacy (GB, $22), Theo Riddick (DET, $18), Matt Asiata (MIN, $10)
WR: Michael Floyd (ARI, $20), Steve Smith Sr. (BAL, $18), Rishard Matthews (TEN, $11)
TE: Clive Walford (OAK, $12)
DEF: Dallas Cowboys ($14)

CASH GAMES (H2H, 50/50s and DOUBLE UPS)

Quarterback

Drew Brees (NO, $37)

Brees' salary this week is the highest we've seen a quarterback priced at so far this season, but it could be well worth paying given that there are plenty of viable, affordable options at RB and WR. We're all familiar with his extreme home/road splits. Looking back at last season, Brees had an 8.43 home YPA with a 23:5 TD:INT compared to 6.96 YPA and 9:6 TD:INT on the road. One important statistic to note (and one that most won't pay attention to) is that Brees has struggled against the Falcons over the last two seasons, failing to connect on more than one touchdown pass against them in any of those four games. Though we shouldn't factor past performances too heavily, especially with different personnel involved, there could be something to this. Nevertheless, Brees is in a good spot this Monday coming off a rough road start again the Giants. Brees has a bevy of weapons at his disposal and should hopefully get his running backs (Mark Ingram and Travis Cadet) more involved in the passing game. It's time for the scales to tip the other way and for Brees to step up against those hated division rivals. You may even want to play Brees without stacking with his receivers, since we never know where the TDs are coming from.

Running Backs

DeMarco Murray (TEN, $22)

I'd really like to recommend Zeke Elliott in this spot, but Murray slots in three bucks cheaper and has looked incredibly dominant over his first two starts. Meanwhile, Elliott hasn't factored into Prescott's plan outside of handoffs, catching just three of four balls thrown his way. Murray has averaged 19 fantasy points thus far, coming in fifth among running backs behind DeAngelo Williams, Matt Forte, C.J. Anderson and Spencer Ware. Murray is looking more like the back who dominated NFL defenses in 2014 than the one who struggled running out of shotgun with the Eagles last season. He has been heavily involved in the Titans' passing game and actually leads the team with 12 receptions. A Week 3 date with the Raiders appeared imposing upon first glance of the schedule just one month ago. As we're all aware, the Raiders' secondary has been thoroughly torched to the tune of 808 yards and seven touchdowns by the Saints and Falcons. Marcus Mariota and his receivers are a bit less dynamic than the two previous opponents and I'd expect the Raiders to tighten up their pass defense this week. That likely means more opportunity for Murray to be the focal point of the game plan and for him to get jiggy with it.

Melvin Gordon (SD, $22)

The former Wisconsin Badger, who went his entire rookie season (albeit one cut short by injury) without a touchdown, is currently tied with Matt Forte and Ryan Mathews as the league leader in rushing TDs. He is as chalky as it gets this week and is a surefire cash game play as the Chargers face a Colts team that is allowing 4.5 yards per carry thus far. We should also expect a bump in touches for Gordon since the Chargers sadly lost Swiss army knife Danny Woodhead for the season. This Chargers-Colts game is one of only two on the Week 3 slate with a projected point total over 50. Expect Gordon to be heavily owned this week. Don't overthink this spot.

Wide Receivers

Allen Robinson (JAX, $29)

I'm back to the well on Robinson this week after underestimating the dominance of Chargers' cornerback Jason Verrett in Week 2. Robinson got some garbage time run in the fourth quarter, but he was essentially shut down by Verrett for most of the game. This week Robinson faces off with a Ravens' secondary that was exposed by rookie Corey Coleman in Week 2, but was able to keep Bills' Tyrod Taylor and his crew in check the previous week. Left cornerback Shareece Wright grades out much higher than RCB Jimmy Smith. Robinson has lined up in the slot, left side and right side fairly equally since last season and will likely see coverage from both Wright and Smith as well as slot corner Jerraud Powers, if Powers is active for this tilt. Regardless of the coverage, it feels like it's about time for quarterback Blake Bortles to prove last season's success wasn't a fluke and for Robinson to get loose for a couple of big plays this week. As of Tuesday night, this game is a pick'em according to Vegas odds, and may be a barn-burner headlined by one Mr. Robinson.

Phillip Dorsett (IND, $15)

Dorsett should garner much deserved attention for both tournaments and cash games this week due to an intriguing matchup in a high projected point total (51.5) with the Chargers. Dorsett is expected to get more looks from QB Andrew Luck with Donte Moncrief (shoulder) sidelined for the next four to six weeks. But there's a big caveat: Do your homework and make sure Dorsett isn't going to have to primarily square off with the aforementioned Verrett on Sunday. Verrett doesn't typically cover slot receivers (where T.Y. Hilton resides for 60 percent of his snaps), but I wouldn't be surprised to see Verrett shadow the speedy Hilton. If that's becomes the case, it opens up a ton of opportunity for Dorsett, who has collected 124 yards on 11 targets this year and has big play ability. If you don't think Verrett will shadow Hilton, you can downgrade Dorsett to a GPP-only play. Also, keep in mind that Verrett is human and is prone to mistakes just as every other "shutdown" corner has been in NFL history. It only takes one play to make your salary dollars worth it, and this game will provide plenty of opportunity.

Cole Beasley (DAL, $12)

It was really tempting to put Ravens' Mike Wallace in this spot. Wallace is cheap ($14) and had Joe Flacco locked in on him for three touchdowns over the last two weeks. But that was last week. Steve Smith Sr. is proving that he's still relevant and I bet Kamar Aiken gets into the action against the Jags this week. With wideouts in cash games, we're looking for guys who get targets and have solid floors. Dak Prescott seems to like and trust Beasley enough to send 17 balls his way over the last two games. Beasley has caught 12 of them for 140 yards. A matchup against a depleted Bears' linebacker corps in a prime time game is a good spot for Beasley. Perhaps he rewards those who play him with his first touchdown of the season as well.

Tight End

Jacob Tamme (ATL, $12)

Tight end is tough this week, let me tell you. Jordan Reed is always a solid cash game bet, but are you willing to drop 30 big ones on him? Greg Olsen ($22) and Delanie Walker ($23) are reasonably priced as well, but they have tougher matchups than meet the eye and would need to surpass 100 yards or find the end zone to reach value this week. Tamme was a guy I ended up having plenty of exposure to here last week because of injury concerns with Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu, so I simply assumed that Matt Ryan's targets had to go somewhere. Those who rolled with him were handsomely rewarded (5-75-1, 16 FP) and it might be foolhardy for us to expect lightning to strike two weeks in a row, especially with rookie tight end Austin Hooper displaying some skills on the field last week. But we're looking at targets (eight in each of the last two weeks) and price (dirt cheap), so Tamme gets the nod again for cash games in what is projected to be the highest scoring game of the week.

Defense/Special Teams

New York Giants ($13)

My original plan was to lock in the Miami Dolphins in this spot against rookie QB Cody Kessler. But then salaries came out and we all noticed the bloated 18 dollar tag on them this week. If you can afford the Dolphins, you may as well consider the Panthers (home vs. Sam Bradford) or the Seahawks (home vs. Blaine Gabbert) for the same price. My under-the-radar play of NYG also happens to be my favorite cash game play, so I'll likely roll with them throughout all formats this week. The Giants racked up 14 FP against the Saints last week. They have one of the league's premier interior defenses and a nice trio of cornerbacks. A division battle with the Redskins and "road Cousins" will have Giants' defenders licking their chops. Cousins threw nine of his 11 picks last season on the road, two of those against the Giants. Cousins has already been picked off three times through the first two games in 2016. I'm expecting a bit more of the same as it will likely take Cousins a few weeks to settle in and be a decent quarterback again.

Honorable Mentions

QB: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT, $36), Matt Ryan (ATL, $32)
RB: DeAngelo Williams (PIT, $37), Ezekiel Elliott (DAL, $25)
WR: Julio Jones (ATL, $37), Sterling Shepard (NYG, $18), Tyrell Williams (SD, $13)
TE: Delanie Walker (TEN, $23), Dwayne Allen (IND, $17)
DEF: Miami Dolphins ($18), Carolina Panthers ($18)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Vlad Sedler plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: rotogutguy, DraftKings: rotogut, Yahoo: V_Sedler.
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only NFL Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire NFL fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Vlad Sedler
Vlad Sedler covers baseball and football for RotoWire. He is a veteran NFBC player and CDM Hall of Famer, winning the Football Super Challenge in 2013. A native Angeleno, Vlad loves the Dodgers and Kings and is quite possibly the world's only Packers/Raiders fan. You can follow him @RotoGut.
NFL Picks: Best NFL Player Props For Week 12
NFL Picks: Best NFL Player Props For Week 12
Week 12 Friday Injury Report: Purdy Out, Lamb In, Nabers Questionable
Week 12 Friday Injury Report: Purdy Out, Lamb In, Nabers Questionable
FanDuel NFL: Week 12 DFS Breakdown
FanDuel NFL: Week 12 DFS Breakdown
DraftKings NFL: Week 12 DFS Breakdown
DraftKings NFL: Week 12 DFS Breakdown
Wide Receivers vs. Cornerbacks: Week 12 Matchups
Wide Receivers vs. Cornerbacks: Week 12 Matchups
NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 12
NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 12