This article is part of our DFS NFL series.
We've reached the long-awaited kickoff to the 2023 season, and the Chiefs will immediately set out to defend their status as Super Bowl champs in a matchup against the Lions on Thursday night. The storyline of the game changed quickly when news of Travis Kelce's knee injury first broke Tuesday. While he's questionable to play, it seems like a long shot that he'll suit up. If he does, he's extremely unlikely to play full snap count. This article will cover both alternatives, with a focus on the potential for Kelce to be sidelined.
Briefly, for those new to showdown slates, both FanDuel and DraftKings offer single-game contests for the Thursday, Sunday and Monday night games, albeit with different setups. FanDuel rosters consist of five players of any position. There is one "MVP" slot, which earns a 1.5 multiplier. The MVP costs the same as the four other flex spots on the roster. The total budget is $60,000, leaving an average of $12,000 per player .
On DraftKings, the "Captain" spot on the roster receives the same multiplier, though the salary also increases. That creates more incentive to get creative and take risks in the captain spot, both to save cap and create different roster builds than will be typical for the rest of the field. There are six roster spots to fill on DK, with five FLEX in addition to the Captain. The salary cap is $50,000, leaving $8,333 per roster spot.
Quarterback
There's no place to start but with Patrick Mahomes ($12,200 DK, $18,000 FD). We don't really need to recite his accolades at this point, so the decision to play him primarily comes down to matchup and game theory. The matchup is nothing to be scared of, particularly for the best quarterback in the league. We know the Lions will play hard, but they're projected to be slightly below average at each level of the defense, with the possible exception of the defensive line. If Kelce plays — and if he does, he'll reportedly maintain a significant role — Mahomes becomes less interesting because targets are likely to condense around Kelce and perhaps one or two additional pass catchers. That increases the likelihood that a receiver will outscore Mahomes. That would be a significant detriment given that Mahomes is the most expensive player on both sites. If Kelce is out, then Mahomes becomes a good option. In that scenario, he's likely to target several pass catchers fairly evenly, meaning his chances of being the highest points scorer increase.
On the other side of the position is Jared Goff ($9,400 DK, $15,500 FD), and he comes at a significant discount compared to Mahomes. The Chiefs boast a solid secondary, though they do typically surrender a lot of fantasy points because opponents are forced to throw to keep pace with the prolific Kansas City offense. Further in Goff's favor is the fact that Chris Jones won't play, as he's holding out for a new contract.
The strategy at the position is interesting because both quarterbacks are appealing. On DK, opting for a cheap captain could make it fairly easy to build a lineup with both Mahomes and Goff in the lineup. That's particularly true if Kelce is out or limited because that leaves St. Brown as the only likely player that potentially outscores either quarterback.
Running Back
The backfield appears to be a mess of a three-player committee in Kansas City. If there is a workhorse, it's almost certainly Isiah Pacheco ($6,800 DK, $11,500 FD). He has been cleared from offseason shoulder surgery, but there is the potential that the team will be careful with his workload early. Any touches on early downs shifted away from Pacheco likely would land with Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($3,600 DK, $7,500 FD). He's priced as an afterthought on both sites. Due to some mispriced options on FD, he's not that interesting. On DK, he's a better bet in terms of value. His production might be surprising, as he scored six touchdowns across 10 games in 2022 and benefits greatly from the Kansas City offense as a whole. Jerick McKinnon ($5,600 DK, $9,000 FD) is sandwiched in the middle of the two backs already discussed in terms of price. If he gets a full workload, he's more appealing than Pacheco on DK thanks to his involvement as a receiver. However, Kansas City purposefully throttled his usage prior to its Week 8 bye in 2022 and that could be the case again this year. There's a good chance this group is a rotation throughout the night, and the most valuable player will be whoever gets in the end zone. Pacheco is most likely, but don't dismiss Edwards-Helaire.
Detroit's running back depth chart is more straightforward. David Montgomery ($6,600 DK, $13,000 FD) projects to get the majority of touches and will almost certainly get any goal-line looks. He's priced up on FD, but his chances of reaching the end zone still make him appealing. His profile is less suited to DK's scoring, but being priced below Pacheco does stand out. Overall, at cost, he's my favorite back of the night on both sites. Jahmyr Gibbs' ($8,200 DK, $11,00 FD) appeal flips by site compared to Montgomery. His projected usage as a pass catcher is well suited for DK, but Kelce and St. Brown are the only non-quarterback options more expensive than him.
Wide Receiver
Kelce is getting all the headlines for his health concerns, but the more impactful injury situation might be that of Kadarius Toney ($7,000 DK, $9,500 FD). He was sidelined with a knee injury for all of training camp but has been cleared to play Week 1. Toney comes at a reasonable price on both sites if he plays a full allotment of snaps, but there are two reasons to doubt that. The first is the aforementioned injury, the second is that he played nowhere near that amount after joining Kansas City last season. In 10 games (including playoffs), he was on the field for more than 35 percent of offensive snaps just once and 30 percent just twice. Coach Andy Reid and other members of the staff have talked up Toney's progress this offseason, so it's certainly possible he takes the leap. For now, it feels like the fantasy community has tripped over itself to overhype him, though that could be on Freezing Cold Takes by Friday morning.
If Kelce is out, targets will have to go somewhere, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5,400 DK, $10,000 FD) and Skyy Moore ($4,800 DK, $8,000 FD) figure to benefit. They both should be on the field a lot, and their profiles diverge pretty clearly. Valdes-Scantling had an aDOT 14.6 and 17.5, respectively, the last two seasons, which were seventh and first in the league. The problem is that has translated to a combined five touchdowns and 1,117 yards. Moore is a bit more unknown due to his lack of usage as a rookie. The team announced he earned a starting role, presumably in the slot, and he should be expected to be used in the short areas of the field. Of the duo, Moore is a good fit on DK due to the PPR scoring. Valdes-Scantling profiles as more of a play on FD, but his lack of touchdowns holds him back even on that platform. Justin Watson ($200 DK, $6,000 FD) is expected to serve as the fourth receiver in the offense, and a long catch or two would make him worth rostering to pay up in other areas.
Once again, Detroit is a bit easier to read. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($10,200 DK, $13,500 FD) projects to dominate targets, as he finished 11th in the league with a 28.1 percent target share in 2022. He's pretty much a must-play in any lineup that rosters Goff. Marvin Jones ($6,200 DK, $10,500 FD), Josh Reynolds ($2,800 DK, $8,000 FD) and Kalif Raymond ($800 DK, $7,000 FD) are candidates to contribute behind him. Jones has fallen off from an efficiency perspective the last two seasons, but he still has a combined 28 targets inside the 20, 15 inside the 10, and nine inside the five in that same span. That makes him a strong fit on FD. Reynolds was nearly as productive as Jones last season despite 22 fewer targets. He's a nice target on both sites as a comparable role to MVS at significantly less cost. The sentiment is similar for Raymond, though only one of Reynolds or Raymond is likely to make a significant impact on a game-to-game basis.
Tight End
Even if Travis Kelce ($12,000 DK, $15,000 FD) plays it's a difficult case to make to roster him. He'll undoubtedly be limited, but his cost isn't adjusted for that.
Noah Gray ($2,400 DK, $5,500 FD) projects to be the primary beneficiary of Kelce's projected absence. Due to Kelce's dominance at the position, we have limited sample of Gray's ability, though three of his 28 receptions last season went for more than 20 yards. His increased role, price and quarterback make him a premier value, though he's likely to be rostered at an extremely high rate. Blake Bell ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) is a total punt as the projected third-string tight end behind Gray.
Rookie Sam LaPorta ($5,000 DK, 6,500 FD) is projected to immediately lead the way for the Lions at tight end. First-year tight ends typically don't see a lot of success, but Detroit has gone out of its way to highlight his projected usage. Particularly on FD, he's a cheap option. Brock Wright ($600 DK, $5,500 FD) lost his place on the depth chart due to the addition of LaPorta, but he did score four touchdowns and had three targets inside the 5 last season. He could be a punt play, but there is absolutely no floor in his profile.
Kicker
Riley Patterson ($4,200 DK, $8,500 FD) is back for his second tenure with Detroit. He struggled last season, particularly on deeper attempts. Harrison Butker ($4,400 DK, $9,500 FD) is back in Kansas City but is only 11-for-15 from more than 40 yards his last three seasons and 14-for-21 from 50 yards in the same span. Due to the values available for skill-position players, there's not a strong case for the kickers.
Defense/Special Teams
Typically, targeting the Kansas City ($3,800 DK, $9,000 FD) defense makes sense due to the projected game script and the opposing quarterback being forced into throwing, and thus increasing the chance of a mistake. The combination of Jones' and Kelce's absence lessens that appeal.
Detroit ($3,200 DK, $7,500 FD) can be safely ignored, even if Kelce doesn't play.
