NFL Schedule Release: Implications for Fantasy Playoffs (Weeks 15-17)

The increasing popularity of large best-ball tournaments has meant more and more interest each year in looking ahead to matchups during the fantasy playoffs. The main focus has been Week 17, because a lot of the tournaments will have hundreds of teams remaining and top-heavy payouts, creating incentive to draft team stacks in DFS. 

That'll be my main focus below, but I also want to briefly discuss some of the players/teams that look to have favorable playoff schedules for the three-week stretch — information that may be of interest to those of you focused on redraft or dynasty leagues rather than best-ball tourneys. We'll work backward, starting with Fantasy Super Bowl week. At the bottom of the page I'll discuss some of the best and worst schedules for Weeks 15-17 combined, accounting for the likelihood of weather concerns and favorable/difficult matchups.

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Week 17

The Week 17 Matchups

Cowboys @ Commanders

Lions @ Vikings

Broncos @ Chiefs

Steelers @ Browns

Saints @ Titans

Jaguars @ Colts

Buccaneers @ Dolphins

Patriots @ Jets

Eagles @ Bills

Bears @ 49ers

Rams @ Falcons

Cardinals @ Bengals

Ravens @ Packers

Giants @ Raiders

Texans @ Chargers

Seahawks @ Panthers

Highest Shootout Probability (Week 17)

• Cowboys @ Commanders
• Lions @ Vikings
• Broncos @ Chiefs
• Buccaneers @ Dolphins
• Eagles @ Bills
• Cardinals @ Bengals

It probably won't look as great by December, but this is a fantastic slate of games at first glance, largely pairing teams that are expected to make the playoffs in matchups against each other. The flip side, of course, is a bunch of potential dud games, like Saints-Titans and Jaguars-Colts (though the Jags-Colts game could be fantasy-friendly at least).

Looking at recent ADP data from best-ball sites and accounting for what can reasonably be drafted, some of my favorite game stacks for Week 17 include:

QB J.J. McCarthy - WR Justin Jefferson - WR Jordan Addison - (Any Detroit pass catcher)

QB Bo Nix - WR Courtland Sutton - WR Xavier Worthy

QB Tua Tagovailoa - WR Tyreek Hill - WR Jaylen Waddle - WR Mike Evans

QB Dak Prescott - WR George Pickens - WR Terry McLaurin - TE Jake Ferguson

QB Josh Allen - RB Saquon Barkley - WR Joshua Palmer

QB Trevor Lawrence - WR Brian Thomas - WR Travis Hunter - TE Tyler Warren

QB Drake Maye - WR Garrett Wilson - TE Hunter Henry

QB Michael Penix - WR Drake London - WR Darnell Mooney - WR Puka Nacua

Remember that Week 17 stacking is incredibly popular in best ball. This means the obvious combos like Josh Allen & Saquon Barkley or Puka Nacua & Drake London will end up being on the same teams a lot more often than they would otherwise (which is already reasonably often to begin with, given the ADPs of the respective players). That's not to say those combos should be avoided, but I think it's smart to mix in some less-considered players in addition to or instead of the superstars, e.g., Joshua Palmer, Jordan Whittington, Ray Davis.

Highest Blowout Probability (Week 17)

• Steelers @ Browns
• Giants @ Raiders

There aren't any games on this slate that I'd currently project for a spread of more than 7-8 points. As mentioned, we mostly have projected playoff teams facing each other while likely bad teams face one another.   

Week 16

The Week 16 Matchups

Rams @ Seahawks

Packers @ Bears

Eagles @ Commanders

Bills @ Browns

Chargers @ Cowboys

Chiefs @ Titans

Jets @ Saints

Vikings @ Giants

Buccaneers @ Panthers

Jaguars @ Broncos

Patriots @ Ravens

Falcons @ Cardinals

Steelers @ Lions

Raiders @ Texans

Bengals @ Dolphins

49ers @ Colts

Highest Shootout Probability (Week 16)

• Bengals @ Dolphins
• Eagles @ Commanders
• Chargers @ Cowboys
• Buccaneers @ Panthers
• Falcons @ Cardinals

The Bengals-Dolphins game catches my attention first, at least from a fantasy standpoint. Miami's defense actually played better than their offense for much of last season, but the Dolphins still have a hyper-talented group of playmakers, and Cincinnati is the surest bet in the league to be better on offense than on defense.

I don't think there's much value in targeting Week 16 game stacks given that best-ball pods tend to be only 12 or 16 teams, but for those who disagree, I'll point out a few that I like at first glance:

QB Tua Tagovailoa - WR Ja'Marr Chase - WR Tyreek Hill - WR Jaylen Waddle

QB Justin Herbert - WR CeeDee Lamb - WR Ladd McConkey - WR Tre Harris

QB Baker Mayfield - WR Mike Evans - WR Jalen Coker

Highest Blowout Probability (Week 16)

• Bills @ Browns
• Chiefs @ Titans
• Steelers @ Lions
• Raiders @ Texans

Unlike Week 17, this slate has a bunch of matchups between annual heavyweights and frequent cellar dwellers. All of the likely favorites listed above have matchups against 2024 playoff teams the following week, potentially setting up let-down spots if you believe in that sort of thing (I think it's more of an NCAAF phenomenon, but who knows).

Week 15

The Week 15 Matchups

Falcons @ Buccaneers

Browns @ Bears

Ravens @ Bengals

Chargers @ Chiefs

Bills @ Patriots

Commanders @ Giants

Raiders @ Eagles

Jets @ Jaguars

Cardinals @ Texans

Packers @ Broncos

Lions @ Rams

Panthers @ Saints

Titans @ 49ers

Colts @ Seahawks

Vikings @ Cowboys

Dolphins @ Steelers

Highest Shootout Probability (Week 15)

• Ravens @ Bengals
• Chargers @ Chiefs
• Falcons @ Buccaneers
• Lions @ Rams
• Vikings @ Cowboys

Anyone worried about Week 15 stacks in May is a truly sick puppy. But since we don't have any kind of policy against sick puppies here at RotoWire, here are a few stacks that sound fun:

QB Lamar Jackson - WR Ja'Marr Chase - TE Mark Andrews

QB Baker Mayfield - WR Mike Evans - WR Drake London -

QB J.J. McCarthy - WR Justin Jefferson - WR George Pickens - TE T.J. Hockenson

Highest Blowout Probability (Week 15)

• Bills @ Patriots
• Commanders @ Giants
• Raiders @ Eagles
• Titans @ 49ers
• Jets @ Jaguars

Like Week 16, this slate looks better for potential blowouts than premium matchups, although those Ravens-Bengals games tend to be a ton of fun for both real life and fantasy. A Raiders-Eagles game in Philadelphia is less appealing, to say the least, and Titans-49ers matchups in San Francisco could end up being something like a 16-point spread if Cam Ward stinks (and the Niners rebound to their 2022-23 form).

General Schedule Notes for Weeks 15-17

Unfavorable

• Cleveland's passing game gets a brutal draw, traveling to Chicago in Week 15 before returning home to face the Bills (Week 16) and Steelers (Week 17). Jerry Jeudy's December may feature a lot of bad weather.
• The Bills are also in for some rough weather, playing in New England (W15) and Cleveland (W16) before hosting the Eagles (W17).
• The Ravens don't have it quite so bad, but they're also likely to run into suboptimal weather, playing in Cincinnati, Baltimore and Green Bay over the final three weeks. At least they don't need to throw the ball to score 30 points.
• The Packers have a tough draw, playing at Denver, at Chicago and then home against Baltimore.
• A Week 17 home game against the Giants looks great for the Raiders, but first the Silver and Black have road trips to Philadelphia and Houston in Weeks 15-16, facing two of the league's most talented defenses in their own houses.
• The Patriots have a home game against Buffalo in Week 15, followed by trips to Baltimore and New York (Jets) the next two weeks. All three opponents have a lot of defensive talent, and none of the games is likely to feature warm weather.

Favorable

• The Dolphins travel to Pittsburgh in Week 15, but after that they get home games against Cincinnati and Tampa Bay, two teams whose talent and spending are overwhelmingly on the offensive side of the ball. 
• The Saints will probably be awful this year, but at least they have a cupcake schedule for the fantasy playoffs, hosting the Panthers (W15) and Jets (W16) before a Week 17 trip to Tennessee. 
• The Jets also get a nice draw for the playoffs, going to Jacksonville (W15) and New Orleans (W16) before returning home for a Week 17 clash with New England.
• The 49ers have a Week 14 bye, followed a Week 15 home game against Tennessee, a Week 16 trip to Indianapolis and a Week 17 home game against Chicago. Even before fantasy playoffs, San Francisco's non-division schedule is arguably the most favorable in the league, with matchups against the AFC South, NFC South, Giants, Browns and Bears. It'll be riot time if Kyle Shanahan misses the playoffs again.
• The Texans also have two dome games and a trip to L.A., and their schedule looks easier than Detroit's, facing the Cardinals, Raiders and Chargers. Wheels up for C.J. and Nico?
• The Buccaneers don't have any dome games in the playoffs, but they might as well, playing at home against Atlanta (W15) before going to Carolina (W16) and Miami (W17). Those matchups would have shootout potential even before thinking about the favorable weather aspect.
• The Panthers have a nice-looking draw, traveling to New Orleans in Week 15 before returning home to face the Buccaneers and Seahawks. That likely means no terrible weather, and no matchup against a top defense (although the Bucs and 'Hawks should at least be respectable on D).
• The Lions have two dome games and a trip to L.A. for the fantasy playoffs, although they might be facing tough defenses (matchups against LAR, PIT and MIN).
• The Seahawks have home games against the Colts (W15) and Rams (W16), then play at Carolina in Week 17.