This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Player Props and Best Bets for Week 15
Last article: 0-3, -3.28 units
Season: 82-135, -66.08 units
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Travis Kelce over 77.5 receiving yards, -110 (FanDuel)
Kelce comes into this game off one of his better efforts of the season, catching all 10 of his targets for 105 yards. Overall, he's 8-6 covering this number, and gets a solid matchup this week vs. the Seahawks, who rank 28th in fantasy points allowed to opposing TE's. The weather in this game should be okay, very cold at 9 degrees, but with sunny skies and moderate 13 mph winds.
Patrick Mahomes over 14.5 rushing yards, -115 (FanDuel)
Mahomes has been very effective on the ground this year, and gets another small total this week that he could conceivably cover on just one single carry. Overall, Mahomes is 9-5 in covering this number, and I think he's essentially an every week play at anything less than 20 yards.
Jerick McKinnon over 27.5 receiving yards, -110 (FanDuel)
McKinnon has been highly active the past couple of weeks, with receiving lines of 8-70-1 and 7-112-2. With that kind of success, it seems likely the Chiefs will try to keep him involved, and anything approaching his recent volume makes him a clear favorite to reach 30 yards. I'm also not against his combo prop of 57.5 yards (rushing + receiving), as the Seahawks have the second-worst rushing defense in the league behind the Texans.
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Justin Fields over 77.5 rushing yards, -110 (FanDuel)
Fields has been brilliant rushing the ball over the second half of the season, covering this number in six of his last eight games. Even during the two misses, he posted very respectable rushing totals of 71 and 60 yards. With nine degree cold and 22 mph winds, we can be sure that Fields will be looking to use his legs again in this spot, perhaps even more than during a normal game. Seems a solid play.
Justin Fields anytime touchdown, +200 (FanDuel)
Prior to last week, Fields had scored a rushing touchdown in six consecutive games. While there may not be a ton of scoring in this game (the total is 40 points), +200 seems a little too generous on what's been a very frequent occurrence for the Bears' top touchdown scorer.
Josh Allen over 50.5 rushing yards, -110 (FanDuel)
Allen has recorded 10 rushing attempts in three of his last four games, and seems likely to match or exceed that number today in this cold, high-wind game. The Bears are also weak on run defense overall, ranking 27th in yards allowed. Good spot.
Nick Folk over 1.5 field goals, +105 (DraftKings)
Folk ranks as the #3 fantasy kicker overall, while the Bengals rank 30th in points allowed to the opposing kicker. While very cold at 15 degrees, New England is expecting clear skies and moderate 13 mph wins. Good play at plus-money.
D'Andre Swift over 33.5 rushing yards, -114 (FanDuel)
Swift seems much closer to full health nowadays, and is finally starting to see his usage creep up, averaging nine carries and 45 yards over his last three games. With Swift averaging 5.5 yards per carry overall, anything close to 10 carries figures to be good enough at this number, and it's possible the Lions may be running a little more this week due to the cold weather (20 degrees).
A.J. Brown over 67.5 receiving yards, -110 (FanDuel)
Brown has covered this number in each of his last three games, going way over in two of those games, including last week when he logged a season-high 16 targets. Meanwhile, the Cowboys rank 26th in fantasy points allowed to WR's, and this is one of the few games this season where the Eagles are listed as underdogs (which might Brown's receiving numbers if they're in catch-up mode late). Obviously Jalen Hurts is missing from the equation this week, but I don't think Gardner Minshew will cause much of a downturn in their passing game.
Tony Pollard over 79.5 rushing + receiving yards, -115 (FanDuel)
Pollard often covers this number just on his rushing yards alone, and with this figuring to be a tightly contest game, I would guess the Cowboys will be more likely to lean on Pollard as a pass-catcher than they are during most weeks. He's also very capable of breaking a long gainer at any time, which always helps.
Najee Harris over 58.5 rushing yards, -113 (FanDuel)
Harris has covered this total in four of his last six games, and is coming off a season-high 24 carries last week. He now faces the Raiders, who rank 27th in fantasy point allowed to RB's, and are coming off a game where they allowed 172 rushing yards to Rhamondre Stevenson. Good chance Harris can get to 60 yards today.
