This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Expert Bets, Picks, and Player Props for Super Bowl 57 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Finally, the big game is upon us! There are a crazy amount of betting and the amount expected to be wagered on the game is estimated to be around $16 billion. That's not a misprint. While I've been wrong about plenty this season, I bring into the Super Bowl an 8-3-1 postseason record so maybe I might be in a bit of a hot streak. Let's take a look at some of the different wagers and where my leans are at the FanDuel Sportsbook.
(Did I mention there's a significant Gronk FG attempt?)
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Super Bowl 57 Picks
Let's get straight to it, I'll take the Eagles Money Line (-122, as I write this). Everyone thinks this should be a close game (not me) but laying 1.5 (-110) seems silly in case of a narrow win. In this era of the two-point conversion and supposedly better strategy (ahem, Andy Reid, master of clock management) this game could be decided by a point. I really think football is a simple game; win the game at the line of scrimmage. On either side, are the Chiefs even close to being as talented as the Eagles? I don't think so. The biggest problem that the Eagles' defense will have to face isn't Patrick Mahomes with his ankle, it's probably Travis Kelce. Philadelphia has been better than league-average against opposing tight ends this season (12th vs. the position) and they've had two weeks to figure out how to slow Kelce down (more on that later). I'd also take advantage of in-game betting here if this game goes heavily one way or the other as the Patriots came back against the Falcons, the 49ers against the Ravens, Rams vs. Bengals (last quarter), etc.
Player Prop Bets Super Bowl 57
Coin Toss - TAILS Never fails (-104).
Ok, I'm half kidding here as the toss is half of a bet (laying the juice). If you want immediate action, go for it. I'm personally not going for it...I think.
(Gronk, native of WNY, grew up 10 minutes from me, his mom used to work at my Wegmans, better not miss this kick).
Do you have a $1, anyone? There is a +20000 prop for both Travis and Jason Kelce to each score a touchdown. It's a goofy bet, one that will likely not happen but I'd spent a dollar worse in my past (Rotowire trips to Vegas, there's a place called the Spearmint Rhino I may have visited...) so why not. I already have the $200 spent just in time for Valentine's Day.
Points to be scored in the first minute of play +3000. Hmm. This isn't happening on a kickoff return but, could we see an early deep shot from either team on play-action? Could happen and I think Kansas City might want to show that Patrick Mahomes is semi-healthy and what better way to do it. I also think Quez Watkins (+750 anytime TD) is a candidate for a long ball early given the attention A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith will command.
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 292.5 Passing Yards
A lot of my picks are going to go hand in hand with the Eagles winning this game. That means Philadelphia will come up with a good game plan to slow down the passing attack and their front four on defense gets to Mahomes. If I see his family members even once in this game, it'll be too many times. Seriously though, Mahomes has gone under this number in three of his last five games.
*There are alternate props for passing touchdowns (Mahomes over 0.5 -1100, Hurts over 0.5 -520. I'd stay away from these; there's an old saying "never bet a lot to win a little".
Patrick Mahomes OVER 19.5 Rushing Yards
Remember a few seasons ago when Mahomes easily had the over for rushing yards and took a knee on the last few downs for negative yardage to run out the clock and then the under hit? I may have called that right knowing that was going to happen. Seriously, this seems like a big number for a player with a ankle injury but if I think the front four for the Eagles are going to get to him, he may be flushed out of the pocket a lot and forced to run. Also, if we are on board with the Eagles winning this game, there won't be any negative rushing yardage late.
Kenneth Gainwell OVER 19.5 Rushing Yards
I'm going to talk through this one, so bear with me a bit. Let's look at Gainwell's last three games, rushes and yardage:
5-35
12-112
14-45
Normally I'm a contrarian but in this case it seems like an obvious over. Granted, two of those games were against the Giants and two of those games were blowouts. However, Kansas City ranked 18th against opposing running backs and if we think Gainwell can get at least five carries the over should hit.
(Also, what's up with these 19.5 yard rushing props?)
Longest Reception: A.J. Brown (-154) vs. Travis Kelce
I'm not going to touch any prop as to who has the most repections here but in a longest catch competition, I have a hard time believing Kelce will win here. He doesn't run a ton of deep routes (Brown does) and the only way I see Brown losing this is if Kelce breaks multiple tackles in a catch-and-run scenario. Brown, on the other hand, just needs a bomb thrown to him or to break a long tackle and he's gone. Here's my favorite prop bet for the Super Bowl.
Be sure to check out our full list of NFL player props this week along with our Super Bowl player projections to see where our numbers stack up compared to the sports books.
Super Bowl 57 Anytime Touchdown Props
This game has an over/under of 50.5 (I like the over but not a strong lean) so we should see plenty of touchdowns, making this an interesting area to wager in.
Travis Kelce -125
While I'm not high on Kelce overall, I know Mahomes will go to him in the red zone, most likely multiple times. I don't like laying these kind of odds but blindly I would have thought this would be in the -150 range.
A.J. Brown +120
If I'm going in on Brown, I'm going all-in. You can parlay an anytime touchdown, over 72.5 receiving yards and over 5.5 receptions for a return of 3.3:1 on a dollar. I also think there's a nice hedge here taking both Brown and DeVonta Smith (+165) to score as I think it's an likely scenario that at least one of them scores, possibly both.
Kadarius Toney +320
Toney has been used in a lot of gadget/trick plays and with two weeks to prepare, I'm sure Andy Reid has something cooked up for him. Only two games ago against Jacksonville he had seven targets and five carries showing the Chiefs want to get him involved in the offense.
Kenneth Gainwell +360, Boston Scott +500
Ok, here's our super big hedge of the week. In the last three games, Scott has scored in each while Gainwell has scored in one. Seeing that, these odds don't make a ton of sense. The Eagles all season haven't worried about running Miles Sanders at the goal line (he did have 11 touchdowns, two against San Francisco but 0 in the previous five games before that). Again, this is a scenario that both Gainwell and Scott score but we only need one to profit here.
Quez Watkins +800
Ok, here's a long shot that I think has an actual chance to score. Watkins has three touchdowns this season in three separate games but has gone catch-less in the last two. Over 12.5 receiving yards (+100) is another wager I like for Watkins as I think he'll be flying (see what I did there) under the radar. The Chiefs have not been good against opposing wide receivers ranking 26th in the league this season.
Good luck! Have fun and make sure you eat too much.
