NFL Game Previews: Saints-Chiefs Matchup

MONDAY NIGHT

New Orleans (+5.5) at Kansas City, o/u 43.5
Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

To quote the late great Fred Willard, "Hey, wha' happened?" After erupting for 47 and 44 points in their first two games of the year, the Saints' offense has crashed hard, managing only 36 points combined against the Eagles and Falcons, who aren't exactly defensive powerhouses. Maybe it's a bird thing? Derek Carr has gone from MVP candidate to, uhh, Derek Carr, posting a 1:2 TD:INT and 6.2 YPA in the two losses. I refuse to believe that the loss of running back Taysom Hill — he's not a "swiss army knife" any more guys, he really only lines up in the backfield these days as an RB or wild-cat QB, which is another way to say RB — has had that big an impact on OC Klint Kubiak's scheme, but Hill has only been on the field for 15 snaps during the two losses. Alvin Kamara's stayed red hot, though, topping 100 scrimmage yards in every game while racking up six TDs in four weeks. Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed have also had big efforts, and the team's narrow route tree should keep it that way. The New Orleans defense under Dennis Allen and DC Joe Woods has been the team's true strength, sitting first in QB rating against thanks to a 1:6 TD:INT. In fact, nobody's solved this secondary yet. Philly beat New Orleans on the ground, while Atlanta got two defensive TDs and a bunch of field goals.

Patrick Mahomes can solve just about any secondary, of course, but he'll be working with one hand metaphorically tied behind his back Monday night. Rashee Rice had unquestionably become his go-to guy, but now he's on the shelf as Kansas City tries to figure out whether his knee injury will be season-ending. Travis Kelce's still around and is coming off a Kelce-esque 7-89-0 line on nine targets last week, but after that Mahomes' options are very limited. Rookie speedster has three TDs in four weeks, but they've come on only 14 touches. The team probably can't afford to keep easing him into the pros. After that, it's a bunch of retreads in Justin Watson, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman, plus 2022 second-round pick Skyy Moore, though he may have already blown his last chance with the organization. Another retread, Kareem Hunt, heads the backfield while Isiah Pacheco is out. Kansas City's defense has been good on the ground, but less so through the air, and the unit isn't yet playing at the level that carried the team to the Super Bowl last season. The defending champs are 4-0, but all four wins have been by a single score, and their margin for error feels like it just keeps shrinking.

Key Info

NO injuries: RB Kendre Miller (IR, hamstring), "TE" Taysom Hill (out, ribs)
KC injuries: RB Isiah Pacheco (IR, lower leg), RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (NFI, illness), WR Rashee Rice (IR, knee), WR Mecole Hardman (questionable, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
NO DFS targets: none
KC DFS targets: none

NO DFS fades: Alvin Kamara
KC DFS fades: Patrick Mahomes, Xavier Worthy

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Kamara manages 80 scrimmage yards and a score. Carr throws for 250 yards and TDs to Shaheed and Juwan Johnson. Hunt gains 60 yards. Mahomes throws for 210 yards and touchdowns to Kelce and Watson. Saints 27-20

SUNDAY A.M.

N.Y. Jets (+2.5) vs. Minnesota in London, o/u 40.5
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. EDT

So much for defending OC Nathaniel Hackett's besmirched honor. The Jets turned in a complete dud last week, managing only three Greg Zuerlein field goals in an ugly 10-9 loss to the Broncos, which must have made for a fun flight to the UK. Yeah, Zuerlein did miss a 50-yarder in the final minute that would have won the game, but somehow I don't think Aaron Rodgers was content with the overall performance. Breece Hall's disappearing act was baffling — four yards on 10 carries is unfathomably bad, and it's not like Denver has an elite run defense — but he'd found the end zone in three consecutive games to begin the year and had seen at least 14 carries and five targets in all three, so volume shouldn't be an issue even if rookie Braelon Allen keeps flashing with his opportunities. Rodgers also came out of the game limping, which isn't what the team wants to see from its 40-year-old QB, but the knee issue doesn't seem like it'll cost him time ... yet. Garrett Wilson leads the Jets in targets and receptions, but Allen Lazard leads in receiving yards and TDs, and that's not a state of affairs that can continue if the team's going to be a legit contender. Robert Saleh's pass defense has given up fewer than 130 passing yards a game and is in the top five in points allowed per game, but it also hasn't faced a dangerous quarterback since Brock Purdy in Week 1, and he didn't have a full complement of talent around him. This game will arguably be the first real test for Sauce Gardner and company this season.

There are only two undefeated teams left in the league, and the Vikings are the only ones in the NFC, which exactly nobody predicted in the preseason. (Don't even bother making the claim — no one will believe you.) They took care of the Niners and Texans in Minnesota before heading to Green Bay and ruining Jordan Love's return to the lineup, so it's not like they're had a creampuff schedule either. Sam Darnold is playing like a third overall pick, and also like the last four years never happened. He leads the NFL with 11 touchdown passes and a 118.9 QB rating, and he's been both accurate (68.9 percent completion rate, which is still somehow just outside the top 10) and aggressive (5.0 completed air yards per attempt, which is behind only Purdy and Anthony Richardson). Keep in mind too that Justin Jefferson — TD streak at five games dating back to Week 18 of last season — has been his only consistent target. Jordan Addison's been banged up, and while T.J. Hockenson has yet to play a snap. Aaron Jones is coming off a nice revenge game against the Packers (139 scrimmage yards), and it should be Darnold's turn this week. If there's a concern, it's the defense's fourth-quarter collapse last week against Love, but he's the kind of QB who can do that to just about anybody. The Vikes are still first in sacks, second in takeaways and fourth in PPG allowed, and now they get to tee off against an aging quarterback with mobility issues working behind an offensive line that hasn't gelled yet.

Key Info

NYJ injuries: EDGE Haason Reddick (out, stubbornness), LB C.J. Mosley (doubtful, toe)
MIN injuries: TE T.J. Hockenson (PUP, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
NYJ DFS targets: none
MIN DFS targets: Vikings DST

NYJ DFS fades: Aaron Rodgers, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson
MIN DFS fades: Johnny Mundt

Weather notes: 30-40 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Hall manages 60 combined yards. Rodgers throws for less than 200 yards but does find Lazard for a TD. Jones pops for 110 scrimmage yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Darnold throws for 270 yards and two more touchdowns, one each to Jefferson and Addison. Vikings 34-13

EARLY SUNDAY

Carolina (+4) at Chicago, o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

For the second consecutive week, the Panthers had a real NFL offense with Andy Dalton running the show. The veteran QB led his squad to 24 points against the Bengals ... only for the Carolina defense to cough up 34. Well, at least one side of the ball has figured things out. Diontae Johnson has erupted for a 15-205-2 line on 27 targets in Dalton's two starts, while Chuba Hubbard has taken advantage of the fact that defenses have something else to worry about by piling up 290 rushing yards and two scores. Johnson's now dealing with an ankle injury, but his chances of being able to play through it seem good. If only DC Ejiro Evero's defense was as easy to fix. No team has given up as many points per game, and the Panthers are in the bottom seven in yards allowed per play and bottom three in sacks. Derrick Brown and now Shaq Thompson have been lost for the year, and there's key talent missing at all three levels. This is a lost season already, but Dalton might steal a win or two along the way to cost them the top pick in the 2025 draft.

This was also supposed to be a battle between the 2023 and 2024 first overall picks, of course, but at least Caleb Williams still has his job. He's looked better the last two weeks, completing 66.7 percent of his passes with a 6.9 YPA and 3:2 TD:INT, and as with the Panthers, the improvement in the Bears' passing game has lifted the whole offense. D'Andre Swift is coming off his best performance of the year after hanging 165 scrimmage yards and his first Chicago TD on the Rams, and Roschon Johnson also got into the end zone. All of Williams' top targets are healthy too, with Keenan Allen back after a two-game absence. The Bears' defense isn't 1985 redux, but it is second in QB rating against and tied for third in takeaways. The NFC North looks like the best division in the league — it's the only one in which every team is both .500 or better, and in the black in point differential — so even if Williams steps up in a big way, it may only be enough to keep Chicago in wild-card contention. That's still a good first step for a franchise that has only made the playoffs twice in the last 14 seasons, making quick first-round exits each time.

Key Info

CAR injuries: RB Jonathon Brooks (NFI, knee), WR Adam Thielen (IR, hamstring), EDGE D.J. Wonnum (PUP, quadriceps), LB Josey Jewell (out, hamstring), S Jordan Fuller (IR, hamstring)
CHI injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

DFS Lineup Optimizer
CAR DFS targets: Chuba Hubbard
CHI DFS targets: none

CAR DFS fades: Jonathan Mingo 
CHI DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 15-20 mph wind

The Scoop

Hubbard picks up 70 yards and a TD. Dalton throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Swift gains 110 combined yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Williams throws for 230 yards and a second touchdown to Rome Odunze. Bears 27-10

Baltimore at Cincinnati (+2.5), o/u 49.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Ravens are only 2-2, but after trampling the Cowboys in Dallas and then crushing the Bills back in Baltimore, it feels like they might be the best team in the AFC at the moment. Derrick Henry has six TDs in four games and has 350 rushing yards with a stunning 7.1 yards per carry in those two wins. It's rare that something goes exactly according to plan in the NFL, but adding Henry, one of the all-time great power backs, to a run-dominant scheme that made fantasy darlings out of guys like Gus Edwards has gone exactly according to plan. Lamar Jackson has thrown less with King Henry taking on a bigger load, but he's been surgical when he does air it out, completing 75.8 percent of his passes in the wins with a 10.2 YPA and 3:0 TD:INT. The secondary is still trying to figure things out, but Baltimore's had the stingiest run defense in the league through the first month. If the pass defense regains its previous form (tops in QB rating against in 2023), look out.

Joe Burrow is on a roll after a bumpy season opener, completing 70.5 percent of his passes over the last three games with a 7.8 YPA and 7:1 TD:INT. Chase Brown busted out for two TDs last week and is averaging 6.3 yards a carry, even if Zack Moss' better all-around skill set is still keeping him in the lead role in the backfield. Ja'Marr Chase has hauled in three scores the last two weeks, Tee Higgins is healthy and even Andrei Iosivas has proven he can contribute when needed. So why is Cincy only 1-3? Lou Anamuro's defense, that's why. Only Atlanta has fewer sacks. The Bengals are 24th in completion percentage allowed, tied for 25th in rushing yards allowed per game, 27th in points allowed per drive and 28th in time of possession. The defense just can't get off the field, so Burrow and the offense have had to be incredibly efficient just to keep things close. All three losses were by a single score, and it wouldn't be surprising if the Bengals went on a tear at some point, but falling to 1-4 with a loss here would be a deep hole to climb out of. The Ravens also swept the season series last year, though Burrow wasn't fully healthy for either game.

Key Info

BAL injuries: RB Keaton Mitchell (PUP, knee)
CIN injuries: LB Germaine Pratt (questionable, ankle)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
BAL DFS targets: Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers
CIN DFS targets: none

BAL DFS fades: Rashod Bateman
CIN DFS fades: Bengals DST

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Henry steamrolls for 130 yards and two touchdowns. Jackson throws for 250 yards and two scores, hitting Flowers and Nelson Agholor, and he runs in a TD of his own. Moss leads the CIN backfield with 80 combined yards and a touchdown. Burrow throws for 320 yards and three scores, one each to Chase (who tops 100 yards), Iosivas and Mike Gesicki, but it's not enough. Ravens 41-31

Buffalo at Houston (+1), o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Well, that was unexpected. After dominating the Dolphins and Jaguars, the Bills got dominated in turn by the Ravens. Maybe it's a Florida thing? Josh Allen was held without a TD for the first time this year, and the Buffalo offensive line didn't provide him with much protection — Allen came into the game having been sacked just twice in his first three games, but he was brought down three times by Baltimore among eight QB hits. Left tackle Dion Dawkins strained a hamstring during the game, and if he can't power through it the way he did against the Ravens or has his mobility impaired, it could be very good news for Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. Allen will also be without the player who has nominally been his top target in 2024, Khalil Shakir, opening the door for rookie Keon Coleman to take on a bigger role. With the defense also banged up, Buffalo's hot start could be evaporating quickly.

The Texans narrowly avoided an embarrassing loss to the Jaguars last week, but C.J. Stroud bailed them out with a game-winning TD drive in the final three minutes. Houston's 3-1, but none of the wins has been especially convincing, while the loss was a decisive one against the Vikings. All the chatter around this one has been about Stefon Diggs getting a revenge game, but he's still only Stroud's No. 2 option behind Nico Collins, who has been an absolute monster. Collins leads the NFL with 489 receiving yards, more than 100 yards clear of Malik Nabers and Chris Godwin in second place (386 yards). Diggs' addition just seems to have shrunk the route tree — both Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz have seen their production collapse, though both have also had trouble staying healthy. With the backfield still undermanned, Dell and Schultz could see more volume on short passes in lieu of giving extra carries to the likes of Cam Akers. DeMeco Ryans' defense is first in completion percentage allowed and fourth in passing yards allowed per game, but it also hasn't faced a QB like Allen.

Key Info

BUF injuries: WR Khalil Shakir (out, ankle), EDGE Von Miller (out, suspension), LB Terrel Bernard (questionable, pectoral), LB Matt Milano (IR, biceps)
HOU injuries: RB Joe Mixon (out, ankle), RB Dameon Pierce (questionable, hamstring), LB Christian Harris (IR, calf)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
BUF DFS targets: none
HOU DFS targets: Dare Ogunbowale

BUF DFS fades: Dalton Kincaid
HOU DFS fades: Nico Collins

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

James Cook churns out 80 yards and a touchdown. Allen throws for 240 yards and a score to Mack Hollins while running in a TD of his own. Akers leads the HOU backfield with 60 yards and a score. Stroud throws for 270 yards and two TDs, finding Diggs and Schultz. Texans 27-24

Indianapolis (+3) at Jacksonville, o/u 46.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Colts' offense looked significantly better last week, and all it took was an Anthony Richardson oblique injury to put Joe Flacco under center. Richardson's status is still up in the air, but this feels like a good spot to sit him and let him regroup. Whoever is in at QB will be busier than usual, as Jonathan Taylor also is out. That means Trey Sermon will start, with Tyler Goodson spotting in on passing downs. The good news is that if Flacco starts, he has some talent around him. Michael Pittman posted his first 100-yard game of the season last week, while Josh Downs also popped for a big game. The defense is banged up and wasn't great even when closer to full strength, but Flacco can still sling it at 39 years old, and is better equipped to keep up if the game becomes a barn burner.

Are the Jaguars even capable of putting up those kinds of points, though? The NFL's last remaining winless team looks absolutely lost. Trevor Lawrence has gone four consecutive games without completing 60 percent of his passes. Travis Etienne got out-produced by Tank Bigsby last week. Offseason addition Gabe Davis has been invisible. The defense is 30th in PPG allowed, 29th in QB rating against and yards allowed per play and last in takeaways. Nothing's going right for Doug Pederson's squad, so while on paper this is a winnable game, the current iteration of the Jags seems very capable of losing a home game to the Colts — something that hasn't happened in this rivalry since 2014.

Key Info

IND injuries: QB Anthony Richardson (questionable, oblique), RB Jonathan Taylor (out, ankle), DT DeForest Buckner (IR, ankle)
JAC injuries: TE Evan Engram (questionable, hamstring), EDGE Josh Hines-Allen (questionable, concussion), LB Devin Lloyd (questionable, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
IND DFS targets: Anthony Richardson/Joe Flacco, Josh Downs
JAC DFS targets: Evan Engram/Brenton Strange

IND DFS fades: none
JAC DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 9-10 mph wind, 60-70 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Sermon gains 80 yards and a score. Flacco starts and throws for 260 yards and three TDs, hitting Pittman, Downs and Goodson. Etienne manages 90 yards and a touchdown. Lawrence throws for less than 200 yards and a TD to Engram, but he gets picked off twice. Colts 31-14

Miami (+1) at New England, o/u 36.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Is there an o/u line for this game low enough to get people to even briefly consider betting the over? The Dolphins' offense since Tua Tagovailoa went down has been brutal, managing only four scores in its last eight quarters — three Jason Sanders field goals, and a Tyler Huntley one-yard TD run that Miami then failed the two-point conversion on. Of course, the unit wasn't doing great with Tua either, and the aerial assault that looked unstoppable about this time last season is bottom 10 in the league in completion percentage and passing yards per game, and somehow 32nd in points per game at just 11.3. Raheem Mostert is back this week, so maybe Mike McDaniel can find a way to get something going on the ground between Mostert and De'Von Achane, but with the Dolphins offering little threat through the air, it's a lot easier to crowd the box, knowing that whoever is at QB probably can't get the ball to Tyreek Hill no matter how open he is. The defense hasn't been terrible, but it can't get a stop in the red zone and has coughed up seven rushing TDs in four games. Miami has at least won six of the last seven meetings in this rivalry, for what that's worth.

On the other hand, the Patriots are 31st in points per game at 13.0 and haven't scored more than 20 in a game this year — and they managed to lose that one. Jacoby Brissett has been sacked 15 times, and that's probably the stat that's keeping him in the lineup because the coaching staff doesn't want to freak out Drake Maye by putting him behind the turnstiles that make up the team's offensive line. Meanwhile, Rhamondre Stevenson lost his starting job, at least temporarily, because the one thing he's done consistently in 2024 is put the ball on the carpet. Antonio Gibson, who doesn't exactly have a pristine track record when it comes to ball security himself, will get a chance to show what kind of spark he can provide. The defense is doing what it can, but everyone in the building knows the Patriots are already playing for draft position, and just trying to make sure Maye's rookie campaign doesn't do permanent damage to his future outlook. Everything else is just window dressing.

Key Info

MIA injuries: QB Tua Tagovailoa (IR, concussion), QB Skylar Thompson (questionable, ribs), EDGE Bradley Chubb (PUP, knee), S Jordan Poyer (out, shin)
NE injuries: WR K.J. Osborn (questionable, shoulder), WR Kendrick Bourne (PUP, knee), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (IR, pectoral), S Kyle Dugger (questionable, ankle)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
MIA DFS targets: none
NE DFS targets: Ja'Lynn Polk, DeMario Douglas

MIA DFS fades: none
NE DFS fades: Kayshon Boutte

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Achane leads the MIA backfield with 60 combined yards. Huntley starts again and throws for less than 200 yards but does find Tyreek for the game's lone touchdown. Gibson leads the NE backfield with 70 scrimmage yards and loses a fumble. Brissett throws for less than 200 yards. Dolphins 10-9 

Cleveland (+3.5) at Washington, o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Just to drive home how bad the Browns' start to the year has been, the last two weeks they lost to the Giants and Raiders, and the week before that they did their best to give a game away against the Jaguars. Deshaun Watson was more efficient last week, but only because he didn't even try to attack downfield. He has yet to throw for 200 yards or top a 5.5 YPA in a game, which might be acceptable if peak Nick Chubb were in the backfield, but he very much isn't. Amari Cooper's had one big performance, but otherwise Cleveland's passing offense has been stuck in the mud, and Jerome Ford isn't being given enough volume to let his 5.2 YPC make a real impact. Yes, the offensive line has been shorthanded, but there's still enough talent at OC Ken Dorsey's disposal that he should be able to come up with something. Myles Garrett and the defense seem to be getting tired of having to carry the franchise. Maybe Chubb's return, whenever that happens, will help turn the ship around.

Another week, another defense picked apart by Jayden Daniels. The rookie QB is doing things no one has done before in NFL history in terms of completion percentage while also running in four TDs in his first four games, and as a result the Commanders have been one of the highest-scoring teams in the league. Weirdly, though, Brian Robinson has been the team's only consistently productive skill player — he has a rushing TD or 100-plus yards, or both, in every game. Terry McLaurin took a couple games to get in sync with his new quarterback but now has an 11-152-2 line on 16 targets the last two contests. Spreading the ball around is working, but it also doesn't leave Daniels with a go-to option should the defense dig too big a hole. Washington's 32nd in QB rating against, 31st in YPC allowed, 25th in PPG allowed ... nothing much good has been happening on that side of the ball, even if the Commanders did hold Kyler Murray and the Cards to 14 points last week.

Key Info

CLE injuries: RB Nick Chubb (PUP, knee), RB Pierre Strong (questionable, hamstring), RB Nyheim Hines (NFI, knee), TE David Njoku (questionable, ankle), LB Jordan Hicks (out, elbow)
WAS injuries: RB Brian Robinson (questionable, knee), WR Noah Brown (out, groin)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
CLE DFS targets: Deshaun Watson, Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore
WAS DFS targets: none

CLE DFS fades: none
WAS DFS fades: Commanders DST

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Ford collects 90 yards and a TD. Watson throws for 200 yards and a score to Cooper. Austin Ekeler leads the WAS backfield with 110 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Daniels throws for 310 yards and two more TDs, one each to McLaurin and Zach Ertz. Commanders 34-20

LATE SUNDAY 

Las Vegas (+2.5) at Denver, o/u 36.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

The Raiders aren't facing an AFC North team this week, so they could be in trouble. Their two wins have come against the Ravens and Browns, while they've lost to the Chargers and Panthers, and neither of those games was particularly close. Gardner Minshew is hanging onto his starting job by his fingernails, while Davante Adams wants out. There's still time for an epic tank job and an early draft pick in 2025 to land that franchise QB, but Antonio Pierce wants to no part of that and keeps looking for the right button he can press to wake up the locker room. It'll be on the front office to make sure that doesn't happen.

I hesitate to call the Broncos good, but they seem to be settling into a formula that can wins games. The defense has been stifling, ranking third in passing yards allowed per game and second in sacks, and that's taken all the pressure off Bo Nix to be a hero. Or even just useful. The rookie QB did throw for his first career touchdown last week, but it came with just 60 passing yards and 2.4 yards per attempt. If one of his bubble screens to Troy Franklin has gone for minus-5 yards instead of minus-4, Courtland Sutton actually would have had more receiving yards than his QB had passing yards, which isn't the sort of thing you see every day. After not getting more than 11 carries in a game through the first three weeks, Javonte Williams got a chance to wear down a defense in Week 4 and put together a solid performance (77 yards on 16 totes), which Sean Payton might want to consider trying more often.

Key Info

LV injuries: RB Zamir White (out, groin), WR Davante Adams (out, hamstring), EDGE Maxx Crosby (questionable, ankle), LB Divine Deablo (questionable, oblique)
DEN injuries: RB Audric Estime (IR, ankle), RB Tyler Badie (out, back)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
LV DFS targets: none
DEN DFS targets: Greg Dulcich, Broncos DST

LV DFS fades: none
DEN DFS fades: none

Weather notes: no weather concerns

The Scoop

Alexander Mattison picks up 50 yards. Minshew throws for less than 200 yards but hits Tre Tucker for a touchdown. Williams piles up 90 scrimmage yards and a score. Nix thrown for less than 200 yards. Broncos 13-7

Arizona (+7.5) at San Francisco, o/u 49.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

That big win over the Rams in Week 2 already feels like ancient history for the Cardinals. They've dropped their last two games, both at home, by a combined score of 62-27, and last week's rout at the hands of the Commanders looked especially bad. Kyler Murray couldn't solve one of the worst secondaries in the league, and Jonathan Gannon's defense got smoked by his predecessor as Arizona's head coach. Marvin Harrison's been as advertised and James Conner's been productive, but this still seems like a team that's more than just a couple pieces away from contention. Gannon is 5-16 to begin his tenure with the Cards, and his OC Drew Petzing seems just as overmatched as he does. The team's upcoming schedule doesn't appear to have any safe harbors either, unless the Dolphins are still a mess by the time Week 8 rolls around.

Two big wins and two close losses is pretty good for a 49ers squad that hasn't gotten a snap from Christian McCaffrey yet and has had some big injuries on the defensive side as well, and the NFC West could still be winnable if they don't begin to put everything together until the second half. Brock Purdy's 9.3 YPA leads the NFL, and while his 68.9 percent completion rate isn't among the top 10 somehow (there are EIGHT QBs who have completed at least 70 percent of their passes so far. In 2023, Dak Prescott led full-time QBs at 69.5 percent), it's still pretty darn good. Until CMac is back, the backfield belongs to Jordan Mason, and it doesn't seem like he's got any competition coming any time soon after rookie Isaac Guerendo fumbled his only touch last week. Meanwhile, Purdy has more options than ever with Jauan Jennings looking just as dangerous as Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk or George Kittle. The Niners have swept the last two season series, winning each game by an average score of 39-17, and that dominance doesn't seem like it's about to end.

Key Info

ARI injuries: WR Zay Jones, (out, suspension)
SF injuries: RB Christian McCaffrey (IR, Achilles), WR Ricky Pearsall (NFI, chest), TE George Kittle (questionable, ribs), LB Fred Warner (questionable, ankle), LB Dre Greenlaw (PUP, Achilles)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
ARI DFS targets: Michael Wilson
SF DFS targets: Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings

ARI DFS fades: Greg Dortch
SF DFS fades: none

Weather notes: no weather concerns

The Scoop

Conner hits for 120 yards and two scores. Murray throws for 230 yards and a TD to Wilson. Mason responds with 130 yards and a touchdown. Purdy throws for 350 yards and four scores, two to Samuel (who tops 100 yards) and one each to Jennings and Kittle. 49ers 38-21

Green Bay at L.A. Rams (+3), o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The Packers didn't get the win last week, but Jordan Love's massive second half put to rest any concern about the health of his knee. The 25-year-old QB has seven completions of 20-plus yards against the Vikings — Deshaun Watson has eight all year. Even if he doesn't have all his top receivers available, Love's return should boost the whole offense, including Josh Jacobs, who has 94 total rushing yards the last two games and is still looking for his first TD as a Packer. Green Bay's defense hasn't been terrible, but it hasn't been able to come up big when it's needed to despite a league-leading 12 takeaways. Only five teams have allowed more trips to the red zone, and only three have given up more RZ TDs.

Injuries! Injuries everywhere! The Rams' one win probably shouldn't have happened, and the team limps into this one without its two best wideouts, multiple offensive linemen and a big chunk of its secondary. Matthew Stafford is actually on pace for a career high in completion rate at 68.5 percent, but he's only managed two passing TDs and Kyren Williams has had to carry the load and then some, accounting for six touchdowns on his own. The defense is 31st in QB rating against and PPG allowed, and Aaron Donald isn't coming back to bail it out. Once Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are back, Stafford might be able to stay ahead of the sticks on the scoreboard as it were, but for now things are looking a bit bleak for Sean McVay's crew

Key Info

GB injuries: RB MarShawn Lloyd (IR, ankle), WR Christian Watson (doubtful, ankle), WR Romeo Doubs (out, suspension), TE Luke Musgrave (questionable, ankle)
LAR injuries: WR Cooper Kupp (out, ankle), WR Puka Nacua (IR, knee), TE Tyler Higbee (PUP, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
GB DFS targets: Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, Dontayvion Wicks, Tucker Kraft
LAR DFS targets: Colby Parkinson

GB DFS fades: none
LAR DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Jacobs breaks out for 140 yards and a touchdown. Love throws for 290 yards and three TDs, hitting Jayden Reed, Wicks and Kraft. Willliams gets held to 60 yards. Stafford throws for 240 yards and scores to Jordan Whittington and Tutu Atwell. Packers 34-20

N.Y. Giants (+6.5) at Seattle, o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The Giants have played four consecutive games with total points of less than 40, but that low-octane philosophy isn't exactly working out for them. They're 1-3, and the one win was against a Browns team that might be in even worse shape than Big Blue. Daniel Jones attempted 40 or more passes last week, the second time that's happened this year, but in both games he failed to produce a touchdown, which makes the volume seem somewhat futile. Whatever momentum the Giants have on offense has been coming from rookie WR Malik Nabers and veteran RB Devin Singletary, and both players will probably be inactive this week. The Tyrone Tracy-Eric Gray combo might not be a big dropoff from Singletary, but neither player has proven anything in the NFL. The defense has been more lucky than good, and the secondary remains a mess, but if Brian Daboll can keep stacking up close losses, maybe he can buy himself another year in New York.

Even after a loss in Detroit last week, the Seahawks still sit atop the NFC West, and they have as good a case to be considered the best team in the division as the Niners. The offense has been consistent and pretty Ravens-esque, with Kenneth Walker averaging 5.7 yards a carry and scoring four TDs on the ground in only two starts — and in one of the games he missed, Zach Charbonnet had a two-touchdown performance. Geno Smith's 4:4 TD:INT is a little worrisome, but he's been sharp for the most part and knows who he should be getting the ball to, as DK Metcalf has topped 100 yards in three consecutive weeks. Mike Macdonald's run defense faltered against the Lions, but the defensive formula has also mirrored Macdonald's time in Baltimore, as Seattle has gotten after the quarterback and minimized the damage through the air. Hmm. Does that make Macdonald an honorary Harbaugh?

Key Info

NYG injuries: RB Devin Singletary (doubtful, groin), WR Malik Nabers (out, concussion)
SEA injuries: EDGE Boye Mafe (questionable, knee), S Julian Love (questionable, thigh)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
NYG DFS targets: none
SEA DFS targets: DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba

NYG DFS fades: none
SEA DFS fades: none

Weather notes: no weather concerns

The Scoop

Gray leads the NYG backfield with 40 yards. Jones throws for less than 200 yards and a score to Darius Slayton but gets picked off twice. Walker claims 80 yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Smith throws for 270 yards and two more TDs, one each to Metcalf and JSN. Seahawks 38-10

SUNDAY NIGHT

Dallas (+2.5) at Pittsburgh, o/u 44.0 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

A win over the Giants is par for the course for the Cowboys, and the fact that they couldn't put away a division rival they normally dominate is just another sign things are not great in Dallas. Dak Prescott has looked more like his 2023 self the last couple weeks, but the running game is non-existent and the defense is running out of healthy pass rushers and cornerbacks. While it may not happen in Pittsburgh, the stage does appear to be set for a Jalen Tolbert breakout, though. Prescott clicking, the defense struggling and Brandin Cooks on the shelf all point to a lot of potential volume for the third-year wideout the next month or so, especially against an upcoming slate that features a slew of possible shootouts — next week against the Lions, then the Niners, Falcons, Eagles, Texans and Commanders after the Cowboys' Week 7 bye.

This one, of course, is not likely to see pinball numbers on the scoreboard. Mike Tomlin would disapprove. The Steelers lost their first game of the year last week, and it was also the first time they allowed the other team to top 10 points. (They even had a good excuse, as the Colts' switch from Anthony Richardson to Joe Flacco was about as radical a switch in what a defense has to worry about as you can get.) T.J. Watt only has three sacks and seven QB hits, but he still warps blocking schemes with his mere presence, and the rest of the defense has been impressive. The surprise has been Justin Fields under center, though. He came into the year with a career completion rate of 60.3 percent. He's added more than 10 points to that number in 2024, sitting at 70.6 percent (and again, that's EIGHTH in the league. I don't know that people really appreciate how weird the beginning of this season has been), and he's remained dangerous on the ground. Tomlin keeps deferring the decision on who his "real" starting QB is until Russell Wilson gets healthy, but c'mon now. The Steelers' backfield is banged up, which leaves Hahvahd man Aaron Shampklin backing up Najee Harris, but it might just mean more designed runs for Fields against a defense that didn't know what do to about Lamar Jackson a couple weeks ago.

Key Info

DAL injuries: WR Brandin Cooks (IR, knee), EDGE Micah Parsons (out, ankle), EDGE DeMarcus Lawrence (IR, foot), CB DaRon Bland (IR, foot), CB Trevon Diggs (questionable, ankle) 
PIT injuries: QB Russell Wilson (questionable, calf), RB Jaylen Warren (out, knee), RB Cordarrelle Patterson (out, ankle), EDGE Alex Highsmith (out, groin), LB Cole Holcomb (PUP, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
DAL DFS targets: none
PIT DFS targets: Justin Fields, Najee Harris, Van Jefferson

DAL DFS fades: Rico Dowdle/Ezekiel Elliott
PIT DFS fades: Calvin Austin

Weather notes: 7-10 mph wind, 50-60 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Dowdle ekes out 30 yards. Prescott throws for 230 yards and two TDs, hitting CeeDee Lamb and Tolbert. Harris jets for 100 combined yards and a score. Fields throws for 200 yards and a touchdown to Jefferson while running in a touchdown of his own. Steelers 24-17

THURSDAY NIGHT

Tampa Bay (+1.5) at Atlanta, o/u 44.0 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

At 3-1, the Buccaneers stand atop the tumultuous NFC South, and their three wins have been impressive — even if the one over the Commanders didn't seem like it at the time. This is their first divisional test, but it comes in a rivalry they've had firm control of in recent years. The Bucs have won six of the last eight over the Falcons, and four of the last five in Atlanta. Baker Mayfield's off to a flying start, posting an 8:2 TD:INT in four games with a 70.5 percent completion rate that would be a career high, and a 7.6 YPA that would be his highest mark since his rookie campaign in Cleveland. He's even added two rushing TDs, which typically isn't a big part of his game. Somebody's got to run it in for Tampa, though. Rachaad White's been dreadful, and the coaching staff doesn't seem quite willing yet to commit to rookie Bucky Irving as the team's new lead back. That's a minor part of an offense that's focused on chucking the ball to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, though. If there's been a surprise for the Bucs, it's been the performance of the secondary. Despite losing cornerback Carlton Davis to free agency and then safety Antoine Winfield to a Week 1 foot injury, Tampa Bay has given up only one passing TD so far, tied with New Orleans for the lowest total in the league.

The Falcons have played four one-score games against playoff-caliber teams and emerged at 2-2, so they certainly haven't been bad. The losses were also to Kansas City and Pittsburgh, which is hardly a black mark. And yet, they don't particularly feel like a team that's about to start putting everything together, either. New OC Zac Robinson is making the same mistake that Arthur Smith did with Bijan Robinson, refusing to treat him like a bell cow and letting him wear down the opposition before erupting late. Last week, Bijan got only 11 touches, while the inferior Tyler Allgeier got 10 and was the one who got to exploit a worn-down Saints defense. Meanwhile, the passing game continues to sputter. Kirk Cousins attempted a season-high 35 passes last week but failed to get the ball into the end zone, and failed to connect with Kyle Pitts at all. The guy who was supposed to be such an athletic mismatch coming out of Florida a few years ago suddenly can't seen to get open. (It's actually not that simple ... he hasn't played in schemes that give him a chance to utilize his strengths as a pass-catcher, but he also hasn't put in the work to adapt his game to those schemes.) Cousins also isn't quite clicking yet with Drake London, though the third-year wideout did see 12 targets last week and has been steady, if not explosive. It's great that the veteran QB is turning Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud into assets, but maybe focus on the guys who can actually move the needle? The defense has been a mixed bag, ranking in the top seven in yards per play allowed but also sinking to last in sacks. Matthew Judon is good, but he's not a one-man pass rush, and nobody else has stepped up coming off the edge.

Key Info

TB injuries: WR Jalen McMillan (out, hamstring), WR Trey Palmer (out, concussion), S Antoine Winfield (out, foot)
ATL injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

DFS Lineup Optimizer
TB DFS targets: none
ATL DFS targets: Bijan Robinson

TB DFS fades: none
ATL DFS fades: Darnell Mooney, Falcons DST

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Irving leads the TB backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown. Mayfield throws for 260 yards and three TDs, hitting Evans twice and Cade Otton once. Robinson churns out 110 scrimmage yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Cousins throws for 220 yards and a second touchdown to London. Buccaneers 31-20

Last week's record: 9-7, 7-9 ATS, 7-9 o/u
2024 record: 33-31, 24-38-2 ATS, 34-30 o/u