NFL Game Previews: Week 12 Matchups

EARLY SUNDAY

Kansas City at Carolina (+11), o/u 43.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

It was going to happen sooner or later. After narrow one-score escapes against the likes of the Raiders, Bucs and Broncos, Kansas City finally got handed a loss, and in fairly convincing fashion by the Bills. Andy Reid's crew is still tied with the Lions at 9-1 for the best record in the NFL, but it only has the third-best point differential ... in its own division. Yup, the Chargers (plus-75) and that Denver team that should have beaten it in Week 10 (plus-52) are both ahead of KC (plus-49). That doesn't mean the AFC West title is in any particular danger, as they have a two-game lead on the Bolts and already won the first meeting between them. The backfield will remain in the hands of Kareem Hunt for at least one more week, but it's the passing game that should be the biggest worry. Patrick Mahomes is tied for the league lead in interceptions (with Jordan Love and Geno Smith, which granted isn't terrible company to be keeping), and in five games since the team's bye, he has a feeble 6.4 YPA. DeAndre Hopkins has had one big game for Kansas City, and three duds in which he failed to see more than five targets. Reid made it a point to get the ball in rookie speedster Xavier Worthy's hands more often last week, and that led to a whopping five touches. This team is 20th in yards per play — it's never finished outside of the top 10 since Mahomes took over as starter in 2018 — and 11th in points per game. This isn't a Tyreek Hill thing either, as KC led the league in both categories in 2022, the first season after Tyreek's departure for Miami. (If anything, it's maybe a Matt Nagy thing, and the parallels between Nagy and Reid, and Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick, are starting to look a bit ominous.) The bottom line is that the defense, which has been good but not great in 2024, may not be able to cover for the offense in the postseason this time around.

Not that any of that should matter this week. The Panthers do come in on a two-game winning streak, and they've left a trail of wreckage behind them — the Saints canned Dennis Allen after their loss, and the Giants benched, and then released, Daniel Jones after theirs. (I hear Jones already has his next employer lined up, though.) The Saints and Giants also have a combined 6-15 record. Before that mini-surge, Carolina had lost five consecutive by an average score of about 35-15. Second-round pick Jonathon Brooks is expected to make his NFL debut this week coming out of the team's bye, and Adam Thielen is expected to see his first action since Week 3, so it'll be all hands on deck (more or less) on offense. Bryce Young has been better since regaining the starting gig, but not exactly good, posting a 62.5 percent completion rate, 4:3 TD:INT and 5.9 YPA the last three games. Chuba Hubbard remains the Panthers' only really reliable option for generating points. As far as keeping points off the board goes ... well, they don't. Carolina's 32nd in PPG allowed at 31.0, and 28th in yards allowed per play. No team's given up more red-zone TDs (tied with the Jags, but the Jags have played one more game) and no team surrenders third-down conversions at a higher rate. Maybe if Kansas City hadn't gotten its wake-up call last week, you could make an argument it might get caught looking ahead to a couple upcoming divisional matches, but as it is, this game just seems to have squash written all over it.

Key Info

KC injuries: RB Isiah Pacheco (IR, ankle), K Harrison Butker (IR, knee)
CAR injuries: RB Jonathon Brooks (questionable, knee), RB Miles Sanders (out, ankle), WR Adam Thielen (questionable, hamstring), WR Jalen Coker (questionable, quadricep), K Eddy Pineiro (questionable, knee), EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (questionable, knee), EDGE D.J. Wonnum (questionable, quadricep)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
KC DFS targets: Patrick Mahomes, Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce
CAR DFS targets: none

KC DFS fades: none
CAR DFS fades: Chuba Hubbard/Jonathon Brooks

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Hunt collects 120 scrimmage yards and a TD. Mahomes throws for 310 yards and four touchdowns, two to Kelce and one each to Hopkins and Justin Watson. Hubbard leads the CAR backfield with 50 yards. Young throws for less than 200 yards but does find Thielen for a score. Kansas City 35-13

Minnesota at Chicago (+3.5), o/u 39.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Vikings are back on track, winning three consecutive to complete their sweep of the AFC South, and they still sit a game back of the Lions in the race for the NFC North crown. Sam Darnold slipped back into some old habits during the winning streak, though, posting a 5:5 TD:INT, and defenses are making a concerted effort to keep Justin Jefferson from beating them. Jefferson hasn't found the end zone since Week 7, though he does have 26 catches for 381 yards during his scoring drought, and he hasn't seen double-digit targets since Week 5. Darnold trying to force the ball to the game's best wideout probably has something to do with those INTs. After failing to reach 1,000 scrimmage yards in 2023 due to injuries, Aaron Jones is just 46 yards away from getting there this season, but he has just three TDs in 10 games and a career-low 4.4 YPC, so it wouldn't be a surprise if Cam Akers kept cutting into his workload. T.J. Hockenson is also still getting his bearings after returning from knee surgery, posting a 13-112-0 line on 16 targets in three appearances. DC Brian Flores' unit will just have to keep carrying the load — Minnesota is fourth in PPG allowed and sixth in yards allowed per play, and top 10 in third-down conversion rate allowed and red-zone TDs allowed.

What a difference a month makes. This time in October, the Bears were kicking back on their bye week having won three consecutive games, and they were firmly in the NFC North mix at 4-2. Since then, Chicago's lost four straight, failing to score even 20 points in a game during that stretch. The defense has held together as best it can, even after that gut-punch Hail Mary loss to the Commanders, but Caleb Williams has unraveled. The 2024 first overall pick bounced back a little last week, completing 74.2 percent of his passes and getting his team within a blocked field goal of a win over Green Bay, but he hasn't thrown a touchdown since Week 6 and has a 56.3 percent completion rate and 5.5 YPA during the losing streak. Williams has at least taken care of the ball — he also hasn't tossed an INT since Week 6 — but the Bears' offensive line has been atrocious, and the poor kid's been sacked 21 times in those four games. Switching offensive coordinators might help a bit, but it isn't the solution. Chicago's also lost four consecutive home games in this rivalry, with the team's last win over Minny at Soldier Field coming in 2019, when Chase Daniel replaced Mitchell Trubisky early and did just enough to earn a 16-6 victory.

Key Info

MIN injuries: K Will Reichard (IR, quadricep)
CHI injuries: RB D'Andre Swift (questionable, groin), WR Keenan Allen (questionable, ankle), S Jaquan Brisker (IR, concussion)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
MIN DFS targets: Aaron Jones, Jordan Addison, Vikings DST
CHI DFS targets: none

MIN DFS fades: Jalen Nailor
CHI DFS fades: Caleb Williams, D'Andre Swift

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Jones gains 70 combined yards and a score. Darnold throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Addison and Hockenson. Swift gets held to 40 yards and coughs up a fumble that Jonathan Greenard returns to the house. Williams throws for less than 200 yards but does connect with DJ Moore for a TD, and Jaylon Johnson adds a pick-six. Vikings 28-17 

Tennessee (+8.5) at Houston, o/u 41.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Titans are setting themselves up well to grab a new franchise QB in the 2025 draft, as they are currently in line to get the second overall pick. (Given the last couple drafts, that might be preferable to drafting first overall.) The biggest obstacle to that plan is the fact that they still have to play the Jags twice, since Jacksonville's the only team with a worse record than Tennessee. Will Levis, a second-round pick in 2023, still has time to change that thinking, though. In two games since regaining the starting job, he's thrown three TDs with a 64.8 percent completion rate and an 8.7 YPA, and, most important, has only committed one turnover. Those performances have come against good defenses in the Chargers and Vikings, too. Levis has the arm talent to be a viable NFL starter if his decision-making can rise to the level of acceptable on a consistent basis, and Tennessee's remaining schedule isn't challenging — the two games with the Texans represent the toughest defenses Levis will face the rest of the way. I'm not sure exactly how good he would have to be down the stretch to convince the front office to pass up the chance to draft, say, Shedeur Sanders, but the window would still seem to be open. Levis also has discovered a reliable target other than Calvin Ridley, as Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has improbably scored a touchdown in five of the last six games after not even getting his first target of the year until Week 6.

Speaking of second overall picks, C.J. Stroud has the Texans two games up on the Colts in the race for the AFC South title. His sophomore campaign isn't going quite as well as his rookie season, however. Injuries in his receiving corps haven't helped, but Stroud got Nico Collins back last week and still failed to throw a TD, and he's posted a miserable 2:3 TD:INT the last five games. Instead, it's been Joe Mixon carrying the team's offense. He's found the end zone in six consecutive games since returning from an ankle injury, a run he punctuated with a three-TD effort in Dallas last week. Over that stretch, Mixon's amassed 739 scrimmage yards and 10 total TDs, and even with a three-game absence he's still on the verge of 1,000 combined yards for the sixth time in his career. At the same time, the Houston defense has kicked into gear, recording 17 takeaways and 19 sacks in those six games. If Stroud can find his 2023 form, look out — and there may be no better opportunity for him to do it than against a Titans secondary missing multiple starters.

Key Info

TEN injuries: RB Tyjae Spears (out, concussion), CB L'Jarius Sneed (out, quadricep)
HOU injuries: EDGE Denico Autry (questionable, knee), LB Christian Harris (IR, calf)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
TEN DFS targets: none
HOU DFS targets: Joe Mixon, Texans DST

TEN DFS fades: Tony Pollard, Chigoziem Okonkwo
HOU DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Pollard picks up 60 yards and a touchdown. Levis throws for less than 200 yards, gets sacked four times and picked off twice, one of which Jalen Pitre returns for a score. Mixon does most of his damage through the air and picks up 90 scrimmage yards and a TD. Stroud throws for 310 yards and two more touchdowns, one each to Collins (who tops 100 yards) and Dalton Schultz. Texans 31-13

Detroit at Indianapolis (+7.5), o/u 50.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Last week my little jury-rigged score-generating algorithm spat out some truly absurd number for the Lions, and I scaled it back to "only" 45 points, because surely they couldn't top 50 for the second time in four weeks. Lesson learned, I guess. (Actually, it wasn't, because I did it again. The algorithm says they're scoring exactly 52 again this week.) Detroit's offense is truly something special. It's not just that they seem to score touchdowns at will, it's that the defense has no way of knowing where the next score is going to come from. In six games since the Lions' bye, David Montgomery has six rushing TDs, while Jahmyr Gibbs has five. Jared Goff's thrown 15 — seven to Amon-Ra St. Brown (who has an eight-game TD streak going), three to Sam LaPorta, two to Jameson Williams (who only played four of those games due to a suspension) and two to Kalif Raymond. The extra one went to Brock Wright last week when LaPorta was banged up. The defense is playing well, but it's also getting to beat up on demoralizes offenses who have to feel like they're facing a multi-score deficit before they even get to the stadium. The Lions will get challenged before the playoffs — Week 15 against the Bills is a potential Super Bowl preview, and they finish the regular season against the Niners and Vikings — but until then, they're in juggernaut mode.

How about that? Sitting Anthony Richardson down a couple games did make a difference, but only because the coaching staff refocused the game plan on the things he does well, rather than the things they wished he did well. Richardson ran for two touchdowns last week — his first TDs on the ground since Week 1 — and his 66.7 percent completion rate was the most accurate performance of his career over a full game. The second of those rushing scores came from four yards out with 46 seconds left in the game, giving the Colts a one-point win over the Jets. The first one was the more impressive run, though, as he gave Micheal Clemons a stiff-arm before lowering his shoulder and plowing through Jalen Mills at the goal line. (That highlight reel is fun, but I'd recommend not paying too much attention to Richardson's footwork, which remains, shall we say, a work in progress.) Indy's still in the playoff picture, one game back of Denver for a wild-card spot and two back of Houston in the AFC South, and the team's schedule gets a whole lot easier after this. If Shane Steichen's keeps scheming to Richardson's strengths, I like their odds to at least finish with a winning record.

Key Info

DET injuries: LB Alex Anzalone (IR, forearm)
IND injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

DFS Lineup Optimizer
DET DFS targets: Tim Patrick
IND DFS targets: none

DET DFS fades: none
IND DFS fades: Anthony Richardson, Mo Alie-Cox

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Gibbs leads the DET backfield with 100 scrimmage yards and a TD, while Montgomery adds 60 yards and a score. Goff throws for 360 yards and three touchdowns, one each to Patrick, ARSB (who tops 100 yards) and LaPorta. Jonathan Taylor puts together 100 combined yards and a TD. Richardson throws for less than 200 yards but hits Josh Downs for one score and runs in another. Lions 41-24

New England (+7.5) at Miami, o/u 46.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Patriots keep stumbling into wins — they're 2-2 in their last four — but are still on track for a top-5 pick in the 2025 draft and won't need a QB, so no harm, no foul. Drake Maye's still a work in progress, throwing four TDs but committing six total turnovers over the last three games, but he's completed 69.5 percent of his passes in that stretch while adding 146 rushing yards, so the tools are there. Really, give them one WR early in the draft next year or in free agency to complement Rhamondre Stevenson, plus an offensive line overhaul, and the offense might be fine. The problem is that may not leave many resources to fix a defense that's the real problem. DC DeMarcus Covington's unit has generated only one takeaway in the last five games, and the stunning nine-sack performance against the Bears accounted for more than a third of their total on the year (36 percent, to be precise). The decent pieces the defense does have are in the secondary, and they're banged up at the moment, which doesn't bode well (or bodes very well, if you're rooting for better draft slotting) against a closing schedule that still features both meetings with Josh Allen and the Bills, plus Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert. Heck, even Anthony Richardson next week might be a handful.

After a modest two-game winning streak, the Dolphins are 4-6 and still hanging around the fringes of the wild-card race in the AFC. Their closing schedule should get them to at least eight wins, as they play the Jets twice and head to Cleveland in Week 17 in addition to this week's winnable matchup, but finding that ninth win to get them over .500 could be tough. Tua Tagovailoa has been sharp since his return, posting a 77.7 percent completion rate and 7:1 TD:INT the last four games, but his 7.4 YPA just highlights how the Miami offense is still trying to re-discover its explosiveness. Jonnu Smith has nearly matched Tyreek Hill's production during that stretch, while Jaylen Waddle has been mostly AWOL. (Waddle did score his first TD of the season a couple weeks ago against the Bills, but it came in a game in which he caught two passes for minus-4 yards.) The only guy really humming right now is De'Von Achane, who has 425 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns since Tua's return. The defense, particularly the secondary, may have turned a corner, though. Jalen Ramsey has staying more or less healthy and regained something close to his peak form, while Jevon Holland and Jordan Poyer have been a reliable backbone at safety. The Dolphins have also owned this rivalry in recent years, winning seven of the last eight meetings and four straight in Miami.

Key Info

NE injuries: LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (IR, pectoral), S Kyle Dugger (questionable, ankle)
MIA injuries: EDGE Bradley Chubb (PUP, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
NE DFS targets: none
MIA DFS targets: Tua Tagovailoa

NE DFS fades: none
MIA DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Stevenson grinds out 50 yards. Maye throws for 210 yards and a score to Hunter Henry while also running in a TD. Achane racks up 90 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Tagovailoa throws for 260 yards and three scores, two to Hill and one to Waddle. Dolphins 31-17

Tampa Bay at N.Y. Giants (+5.5), o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Buccaneers stumbled into their bye, losing four straight, and the break was well-timed in more ways than one. Mike Evans missed the last three of those losses, but he could return from his hamstring strain for this one, giving Baker Mayfield a downfield target he can trust. The QB was doing OK until he got shut down by the Niners in Week 10, but there's only so far you can get relying on Cade Otton as your top threat. The Tampa Bay backfield is working as a tandem at least, as Rachaad White has five TDs (four through the air) during the losing streak while Bucky Irving has been slightly more effective on the ground on about a dozen touches a game. The secondary could also get corner Jamel Dean back Sunday, which can only help — during the four-game skid, the Bucs gave up an average of 31.3 points and 424.8 yards a game. An NFC South title is more likely than a wild-card berth at this point, especially considering their closing schedule. The Bucs still have both their games against the Panthers to go, plus the Raiders, Cowboys and a Week 18 home game against the Saints. It may not look like it given their 4-6 record, but this is potentially a 10-win club, assuming they don't blow any of their winnable games.

Like, y'know, this one. Daniel Jones getting benched by the 2-8 Giants wasn't a shock, but seeing him completely kicked to the curb was at least a little surprising, and much as his contract was a black mark against GM Joe Schoen, Schoen's decision to give Drew Lock a $5 million deal to be the backup — only for Brian Daboll to then skip him in favor of Tommy DeVito when a backup was finally needed — might actually be worse. There was some nonsense rationale provided about Lock being hurt during preseason and DeVito knowing the scheme better, but it's Week 12, my dudes. If your coaching staff can't get a quarterback ready to play in three months, maybe they shouldn't be coaching. DeVito will have some interesting talent around him, as rookie Tyrone Tracy has seized the starting job in the backfield and Malik Nabers got the bye week to heal up, but we're talking about an undrafted second-year QB whose biggest assets are his fashion sense and memeability. This move isn't intended to make the 2024 Giants better on the field.

Key Info

TB injuries: WR Mike Evans (questionable, hamstring)
NYG injuries: WR Malik Nabers (questionable, groin), EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux (IR, wrist), LB Micah McFadden (questionable, heel)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
TB DFS targets: Mike Evans
NYG DFS targets: Theo Johnson

TB DFS fades: none
NYG DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Irving leads the TB backfield with 110 yards and two touchdowns, while White adds 70 scrimmage yards and a receiving TD. Mayfield throws for 330 yards and three more scores, hitting Evans (who tops 100 yards) twice and Jalen McMillan once. Tracy responds with 100 combined yards and a touchdown. DeVito throws for less than 200 yards and a TD to Johnson. Buccaneers 42-17 

Dallas (+10) at Washington, o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

I hesitate to call this a Dan Quinn revenge game, because living well is the best revenge and Quinn's already got that covered. The Cowboys haven't just lost five consecutive games, they've been pretty much routed in five straight, with the average score in those humiliations being about 34-14. The offense has scored a whopping 16 points total in Cooper Rush's first two starts, but Mike McCarthy isn't inclined to give Trey Lance a try just yet, which is either a sign of how resigned McCarthy is to getting fired this offseason, or a scathing indictment of how bad Lance has looked in practice. CeeDee Lamb is at least still getting volume — he's seen double-digit targets in all five losses, posting a 42-396-2 line on 65 looks — but the loss of Dak Prescott probably means ceiling games will be few and far between. The offensive line is also shorthanded and struggling, but the defense is at least mostly back at full strength. Dallas likely will have both starting corners, Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland, in the lineup together Sunday for the first time in 2024. Diggs hasn't been the same ballhawk he was with Quinn as his DC, though, and Bland might also be less aggressive in Mike Zimmer's scheme.

Quinn's Commanders have lost two straight, giving away a winnable game against the Steelers before getting outplayed by the Eagles, and the club didn't look especially impressive in one-score wins over the Bears and Giants before that. Jayden Daniels has been playing through sore ribs that whole time, though, so I'm not willing to concede that the league has figured out the rookie QB just yet. The team is still 7-4 and firmly in position for a wild-card spot if they don't catch Philly for the NFC East crown, and clashes with the Falcons and Eagles — both in DC — stand out as the only really worrisome spots on their remaining schedule. Fun as Daniels has been, though, it's the backfield that has been the engine of Kliff Kingsbury's offense. The duo of Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler combined for 168 scrimmage yards and a TD last week, and Robinson already has a career-high seven rushing scores and a strong 4.5 YPC, while Ekeler's 11.1 yards per reception would also be a career high. Now they get to face a Dallas defense that's last in rushing TDs allowed, 31st in rushing yards allowed per game and last in yards per reception and yards per target allowed to RBs. (In fact, it's not even close in the latter categories — the Cowboys are giving up 11.0 yards a catch to backs, with the Ravens in 31st at 8.8. In yards per target allowed, it's the Cowboys at 8.9, and the Rams in 31st at 7.5). Dallas has mostly owned Washington the last few years, winning five of the last six meetings, including a combined 83-20 demolition across both of last season's clashes, but that feels like ancient history.

Key Info

DAL injuries: WR Brandin Cooks (IR, knee), TE Jake Ferguson (out, concussion), EDGE DeMarcus Lawrence (IR, foot), CB Trevon Diggs (questionable, groin)
WAS injuries: K Austin Seibert (questionable, hip), CB Marshon Lattimore (out, hamstring)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
DAL DFS targets: none
WAS DFS targets: Jayden Daniels, Austin Ekeler

DAL DFS fades: none
WAS DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 9-10 mph wind 

The Scoop

Rico Dowdle manages 60 yards. Rush throws for 220 yards and a TD to Lamb. Robinson leads the WAS backfield with 130 yards and two touchdowns, while Ekeler piles up 120 combined yards and a receiving score of his own. Daniels throws for 280 yards and two more TDs, one each to Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown (there's the revenge game!) while running in a touchdown of his own. Commanders 45-13

LATE SUNDAY

Denver at Las Vegas (+5.5), o/u 41.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

If the season had ended last week, the Broncos would be heading into the playoffs with some impressive momentum after nearly hanging the first loss on Kansas City before dismantling Atlanta. Bo Nix is beginning to draw some ORoY buzz, and deservedly so — the last four games he's delivered a 72.9 percent completion rate and 7.7 YPA while producing 10 total touchdowns against only one turnover. Not bad for the sixth QB taken in this year's draft. Courtland Sutton remains his only consistent receiving option, posting a 28-370-1 line on 38 targets over that four-game stretch, but the addition of rookie Audric Estime to the backfield mix might be what the Denver running game needed. Javonte Williams had one of his best games of the season in Week 11, while Estime popped in Week 10, and Sean Payton is comfortable playing matchups and riding the hot hand with his RBs. On paper this matchup is a little more favorable for Williams due to his pass-catching skills, but who knows, maybe it'll be Jaleel McLaughlin's turn to go off. The Broncos defense couldn't handle the Ravens a few weeks ago, but otherwise DC Vance Joseph's crew has been stingy, and Baltimore's the only opponent this season who's managed to top 350 yards. More takeaways would be nice, but Denver paces the league in sacks, and 2022 second-round pick Nik Bonitto leads the team with 9.0 in 11 games, tied for third in the NFL behind only Trey Hendrickson and Myles Garrett. Fun fact: Denver has yet to win a game in Vegas, going 0-4 since the move, and hasn't won a road game in this rivalry since 2015. Peyton Manning had a rough day, but a Chris Harris pick-six was the difference in a 16-10 victory.

The Raiders' losing streak stands at six games, a swoon that started with a 34-18 loss in Denver in Week 5. (That loss also snapped an eight-game winning streak in this rivalry for Vegas.) The offense remains a mess, but this week coach Antonio Pierce may not have any choice but to look to the future in the backfield. With Alexander Mattison and Zamir White both injured, 2024 sixth-round pick Dylan Laube figures to get another chance to show what he can do after he fumbled his first career touch in Week 6. (He hasn't been active since.) Veteran third-down back Ameer Abdullah should also get more touches, but neither is likely to have much success on the ground working behind this offensive line, and against this front seven. Gardner Minshew is still the quarterback for at least one more game, though there's been no real sign Aidan O'Connell will get another look even if he is ready to come off IR next week. The Raiders may not have the absolute worst receiving corps in the league — I'd take Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers over the Patriots' top two targets, for instance — but the lack of depth is a killer against defenses that can take those two guys away. That didn't actually happen in the first meeting, as Meyers and Bowers combined for a 14-169-1 line on 21 targets, even with Vegas switching QBs midstream — so if the Raiders are going to play spoiler, both for the Broncos' wild-card chances and their own draft slotting, that's likely how it'll have to happen.

Key Info

DEN injuries: WR Josh Reynolds (IR, finger)|
LV injuries: QB Aidan O'Connell (IR, thumb), RB Alexander Mattison (doubtful, ankle), RB Zamir White (doubtful, quadricep)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
DEN DFS targets: Javonte Williams, Devaughn Vele, Broncos DST
LV DFS targets: none

DEN DFS fades: Troy Franklin
LV DFS fades: Dylan Laube

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Williams leads the DEN backfield with 70 scrimmage yards, but Estime punches in a short score. Nix throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns, finding Vele and Lucas Krull while Sutton tops 100 yards. Laube struggles to gain 40 yards. Minshew throws for less than 200 yards and gets sacked four times, but he does hit Meyers for a TD. Broncos 27-10 

San Francisco (+2.5) at Green Bay, o/u 47.5
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

I originally had the Niners squeaking this one out, but replacing Brock Purdy under center with Brandon Allen changed the equation (literally). Allen's last NFL start came in Week 18 of the 2021 season, when he led the Bengals to a 21-16 loss in Cleveland. He hasn't even attempted a pass in a regular-season game since Week 9 of 2022. The 32-year-old career backup will have a mostly healthy supporting cast, and simply getting the ball in Christian McCaffrey's hands 20 times or so can make any QB look good, but it's tough to have much confidence he can get the job done. The NFC West is a total dogfight, with the 6-4 Cardinals one game ahead of everyone else, and the 49ers do have the best point differential in the division at plus-28, so making sure Purdy is healthy makes sense as the higher priority this week. Still, if they end up coming one win short of a playoff berth, this might be the biggest whaf-if game they look back on. This would be a good spot for the defense to really step up, but while DC Nick Sorensen's unit has held three straight opponents below 300 yards, it hasn't held one below 20 points since the Patriots in Week 4. On the other hand, no one's scored more than 28 points against San Francisco all year, either. On the other other hand, the Niners will be without Nick Bosa or Charvarius Ward this week, and Dre Greenlaw doesn't seem ready to make his 2024 debut.

The Packers' season might look very different right now if they hadn't blocked that field goal, but after last week's escape against the Bears they are 7-3 and looking pretty good for a wild-card spot if they can't catch the Lions or the Vikings in the NFC North. Jordan Love hasn't looked quite right since straining his groin against the Jags, posting a 1:3 TD:INT over the last three games, but last week's 15.4 YPA on only 17 attempts may have been a sign he's ready to start slinging it again the way he can. Christian Watson accounted for a whopping 150 of Love's 261 passing yards last week, and this is about the time of the year the wideout tends to erupt. As a rookie in 2022, Watson posted a 15-313-7 line on 27 targets between Weeks 10-13. Last season, it was a 14-186-4 line on 20 targets in Weeks 11-13. If Love is still less than 100 percent though, leaning on Josh Jacobs should work too. He's topped 100 scrimmage yards in three straight, putting him over 1,000 for the sixth straight year.

Key Info

SF injuries: QB Brock Purdy (out, shoulder), EDGE Nick Bosa (out, hip), LB Dre Greenlaw (PUP, Achilles), S Talanoa Hufanga (IR, wrist)
GB injuries: RB MarShawn Lloyd (NFI, appendix), LB Edgerrin Cooper (out, hamstring), CB Jaire Alexander (out, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
SF DFS targets: George Kittle
GB DFS targets: none

SF DFS fades: none
GB DFS fades: Jordan Love, Jayden Reed

Weather notes: 25-35 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

McCaffrey pops for 120 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Allen throws for under 200 yards but does find Kittle for a score. Jacobs zips for 130 combined yards and a TD. Love throws for 280 yards and three touchdowns, one each to Doubs, Watson (who tops 100 yards) and Tucker Kraft. Packers 31-20

Arizona at Seattle (PK), o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

After stringing together four straight wins before their bye, the Cardinals find themselves atop the NFC West, although it's hardly secure – they're 6-4, and the Rams, Niners and Seahawks are all 5-5. It's setting up for a thrilling race for the division title, but Arizona could be peaking at the right time. The defense has held three of its last four opponents to 15 points or less, and the last two (the Bears and Jets) to a combined 15. The offense, meanwhile, is cooking. Kyler Murray's got a 4:1 TD:INT during the winning streak while chipping in three rushing scores, and he's also produced a 70.8 percent completion rate and 8.2 YPA. The Cards' passing game has been inconsistent overall, and Murray's failed to reach 200 yards in five of 10 games, but that could change down the stretch if Marvin Harrison takes advantage of a run of vulnerable secondaries and has a big finish. The rookie hasn't seen double-digit targets since Week 3, but during the win streak he managed a 16-220-2 line on 23 looks, and he's capable of much more. James Conner has also churned out 100-plus scrimmage yards or scored a TD, or both, in every game during the win streak, providing OC Drew Petzing's scheme with a solid foundation.

The Seahawks were staring at their third straight loss last week until Geno Smith did his best Kyler impression and scrambled 16 yards for the game-winning TD with 12 seconds left on the clock against the Niners. The 34-year-old QB has been picked off five times in the last three games, but he's been mostly good in 2024, completing at least 70 percent of his passes in six of 10 starts, and he still leads the league in passing yards per game at 278.1. DK Metcalf looked 100 percent last week in his return, but it's Jaxon Smith-Njigba who's been Seattle's most dangerous wideout the last few weeks, posting a 23-359-2 line on 31 targets over the last three games. Kenneth Walker is struggling in the backfield (3.3 YPC over the last six games) and the defense is nothing special, but Geno seems to give the Hawks a puncher's chance every week. They're also made a habit of landing knockout blows on the Cardinals, winning five straight games in this rivalry.

Key Info

ARI injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
SEA injuries: TE Noah Fant (questionable, groin), S Rayshawn Jenkins (IR, hand)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
ARI DFS targets: none
SEA DFS targets: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

ARI DFS fades: none
SEA DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 65-75 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Conner bangs out 90 yards and a TD, while Trey Benson also scores. Murray throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Trey McBride. Walker grinds out 70 yards and a TD. Smith throws for 260 yards and a score to JSN. Cardinals 24-20

SUNDAY NIGHT 

Philadelphia at L.A. Rams (+3), o/u 49.0 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

A six-game win streak has sent the Eagles soaring to the top of the NFC East, and the division is headed for its second full decade with no repeat winner (the last team to do it was Philly, who won four straight crowns from 2001-04.) The offense and defense both seem to have shifted into gear at the same time, and over the last five contests, the Eagles have won by an average score of about 31-13. Saquon Barkley has been a monster over that five-game stretch, amassing 773 scrimmage yards and five TDs, and that production looks even better considering Jalen Hurts has nine rushing TDs himself during that time. The QB has also completed 71.7 percent of his passes with a 9.5 YPA and 6:1 TD:INT, so he hasn't exactly been one-dimensional. The defense, meanwhile, hasn't allowed anyone to top 280 yards against them since Week 4, and it's erupted for 11 takeaways and nine sacks over the last four contests. I remain a little skeptical that Nick Sirianni and this coaching staff can keep the team focused and pointed in the right direction, but on paper, the Eagles are every bit as talented as the Lions, and Detroit's most likely challenger for the best record in the NFC.

The Rams have won four of their last five, and last week's 28-22 victory over the Patriots wasn't as close as it looked as LA took its foot off the gas in the fourth quarter. Matthew Stafford has his two elite wideouts back, and over the last four games the veteran quarterback has posted a 10:3 TD:INT, 66.2 percent completion rate and 7.7 YPA. That emphasis on the passing game has meant that Kyren Williams hasn't scored a rushing touchdown in four games, but the third-year back has a receiving TD and 379 scrimmage yards, so he's hardly been forgotten. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have four 100-yard performances between them in those four games, while Demarcus Robinson has been the surprising closer with four scores. The defense hasn't exactly been stingy – giving up 424 yards to Seattle is understandable, but 382 to New England? Yikes – but it's made up for it in splash plays. The Rams have recorded multiple takeaways in four of five games since their bye, 11 in total, and the pass rush led by Jared Verse and Byron Young has 18 sacks, including an active four-game sack streak for Young. Sean McVay will have his work cut out for him to get the team to the playoffs given their closing schedule, but the NFC West will probably be decided in the final weeks anyway.

Key Info

PHI injuries: WR DeVonta Smith (out, hamstring), EDGE Bryce Huff (IR, wrist)
LAR injuries: TE Tyler Higbee (PUP, knee), LB Troy Reeder (IR, hamstring)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
PHI DFS targets: Jahan Dotson
LAR DFS targets: none

PHI DFS fades: none
LAR DFS fades: Puka Nacua

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Barkley rumbles for 150 scrimmage yards and two scores. Hurts throws for 290 yards and two TDs, one each to A.J. Brown (who tops 100 yards) and Dallas Goedert, and he runs in another touchdown. Williams is held to 60 combined yards. Stafford throws for 250 yards and two scores, both to Kupp. Eagles 38-20

MONDAY NIGHT

Baltimore at L.A. Chargers (+3), o/u 50.0 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

After a nearly 12-year hiatus, it's time for another Harbaugh Bowl! The last time John and Jim were on opposite sidelines, the Ravens beat the 49ers in Super Bowl XLVII, in case that doesn't come up during Monday's broadcast. Baltimore might be headed back to the Super Bowl this year, as even after last week's tough loss to Pittsburgh, the Ravens are 7-4 and in very good shape for at least a wild-card spot. The Steelers were the first team to hold them below 20 points all year, and also the first to force the Ravens into multiple turnovers. Derrick Henry has slowed down a bit, falling off a 2,000-yard pace, but he's still on track to be the first back to pile up 20-plus rushing TDs in a season since LaDainian Tomlinson's NFL-record 28 in 2006. Lamar Jackson is also coming off his quietest performance of 2024, but he's got a 25:3 TD:INT and career-best 9.0 YPA on the season with a 67.0 percent completion rate, and the team is still working Diontae Johnson into the mix. The Ravens' defense is also showing signs of regaining its usual form, holding Bo Nix and Russell Wilson in check over the last few weeks – although in between those two games, Joe Burrow lit up the Baltimore secondary for 428 yards and four TDs. If the defense can get itself together – a late Week 14 bye might help there – the Ravens are a legit championship contender, and even if it doesn't, they could be a handful for whoever gets stuck facing them.

One of those potential playoff matchups is the Chargers. Jim's return to the pros has gone about as well as anyone could have hoped, and the Bolts are sitting pretty at 7-3. That includes four straight wins, including last week's barn burner against the Bengals that saw Justin Herbert toss multiple TDs for the third time in those four games. If you loop in a Week 7 loss to the Cards, over his last five games Herbert's delivered a 7:0 TD:INT, 63.2 percent completion rate and 9.0 YPA, and his return to form has strapped a rocket to young wideouts Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey. Johnston has gotten into the end zone in three straight games, while McConkey has a 19-350-2 line on 24 targets during the win streak. J.K. Dobbins has seen his workload scaled back since Gus Edwards came off IR, but that's just given him the energy to do stuff like this late in games. Much like his brother's squad, the Chargers' defense probably isn't quite where Harbaugh wants it, but if they keep scoring nearly 30 points a game, the team has some wiggle room on the other side of the ball and can wait for the likes of Joey Bosa and Derwin James to get fully healthy.

Key Info

BAL injuries: RB Justice Hill (questionable, concussion), WR Rashod Bateman (questionable, knee), LB Roquan Smith (questionable, hamstring)
LAC injuries: WR Ladd McConkey (questionable, shoulder), EDGE Joey Bosa (questionable, hip), EDGE Khalil Mack (questionable, groin), S Derwin James (questionable, groin)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
BAL DFS targets: Rashod Bateman (or Diontae Johnson if Bateman sits)
LAC DFS targets: Ladd McConkey (or Quentin Johnston if McConkey sits)

BAL DFS fades: none
LAC DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Henry thunders for 130 yards and two touchdowns. Jackson throws 290 yards and two TDs, one each to Zay Flowers (who tops 100 yards) and Diontae. Dobbins gets held to 50 yards. Herbert throws for 300 yards and three scores, two to Johnston (who tops 100 yards) and one to Will Dissly, but it's not enough. Ravens 34-24

THURSDAY NIGHT

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (+3.5), o/u 36.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EST

The Steelers turned last week's game against the Ravens into a slugfest and Mike Tomlin managed to jedi mind trick John Harbaugh into giving Derrick Henry the ball only 13 times, and even then they still needed Justin Tucker to miss two field goals to escape with a home win. Regardless of how Pittsburgh pulled it off, the team has won five consecutive games and sits atop the AFC North. Russell Wilson was under center for the last four, but the game against Baltimore was the first time he didn't really contribute, and Chris Boswell produced all the offense with six FGs. Wilson's ugly red-zone INT in the fourth quarter would have drawn a lot more criticism if Lamar Jackson hadn't thrown a pick himself two plays later, and it was a reminder that not all of his problems in Denver were the fault of Nathaniel Hackett and Sean Payton. During the winning streak, the Steelers have won by an average score of about 28-18, and in the two victories following their bye they've held top-notch offenses to 329 yards or less, with the Commanders being the other. The weather Thursday night also figures to work in their favor, if it takes away Jameis Winston's deep ball. The home team has won five consecutive meetings in this rivalry, and the Steelers haven't scored more than 22 points in Cleveland since 2016, but they may not need even that much offense to get the job done.

At 2-8, the Browns are currently in line for a top-3 pick in the 2025 draft, and a much-needed new franchise QB. This game looks like it might be the first true Cleveland Weather game of the year, though the wind isn't quite cranked up to its full passing-game crushing fury. Last week's embarrassing loss to the Saints was due to the defense not stopping Taysom Hill, and DC Jim Schwartz's unit has been a shell of its former self — 22nd in QB rating against, 24th in points allowed per game and 27th in yards allowed per play. The offense has shown flickers of life with Winston at the helm — Jerry Jeudy, Cedric Tillman, David Njoku and even Elijah Moore have had big performances since the QB switch — but Kevin Stefanski has been reluctant to unleash Nick Chubb since he made his return from knee surgery, and last week's low workload in New Orleans was apparently deliberate with a quick turnaround ahead. Chubb routinely had games with 20-plus carries prior to the injury, which happened in Week 2 of the 2023 season ... against the Steelers. Hmm. That's a very different revenge game narrative. If the weather, or the Pittsburgh pass rush, neutralizes Winston, it'll be on Chubb and Myles Garrett (the Browns are third in pressure rate, but only tied for ninth in sacks) to manufacture an upset.

Key Info

PIT injuries: WR Roman Wilson (IR, hamstring), EDGE Alex Highsmith (out, ankle), LB Cole Holcomb (PUP, knee)
CLE injuries: LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (IR, neck)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
PIT DFS targets: George Pickens, Steelers DST
CLE DFS targets: none

PIT DFS fades: none
CLE DFS fades: Browns DST

Weather notes: temperature in the mid-30s, 10-15 mph wind, 75-85 percent chance of rain/snow

The Scoop

Najee Harris churns out 80 yards and a touchdown, while Jaylen Warren adds 60 scrimmage yards and a TD. Wilson throws for less than 200 yards but finds Pickens for a score. Chubb manages 60 yards and a touchdown. Winston throws for less than 200 yards as well, gets sacked five times and tosses a pick-six to Minkah Fitzpatrick. Steelers 31-10

Last week's record: 10-4, 11-3 ATS, 7-6-1 o/u
2024 record: 105-61, 83-81-2 ATS, 83-82-1 o/u