NFL Game Previews: Saturday Matchups

SATURDAY

Houston (+3.5) at Kansas City, o/u 41.5 – Saturday, 1 p.m. EST

It's a battle of division winners with nothing to play for but seeding! The Texans could conceivably climb out of the four spot in the AFC playoffs, and avoid a wild-card matchup with what will probably be the AFC North runner-up, so they might be the more motivated squad here. Houston has won three of its last four, but it's hardly been a dominant run, as they lost to the Titans and barely squeaked by the Jaguars. C.J. Stroud's coronation as the next great NFL quarterback has also been delayed — it's not that he's been bad or had a full-on sophomore slump, but his numbers have taken a step backward as injuries have wracked his receiving corps. Joe Mixon's also been slowed lately by nagging injuries, failing to reach 60 scrimmage yards in two of the last three games. Instead, it's been the defense keeping the team afloat, and aside from a bit of a no-show against Jacksonville, DeMeco Ryans' unit has been among the most aggressive in the league. The Texans are second in sacks, tied for second in takeaways, third in yards per play allowed and tied for fourth in third-down defense.

Is Kansas City's luck finally about to run out? The two-time defending champs are coming off their biggest win of the season, 21-7 over the Browns — just their third win by more than one score — but Patrick Mahomes left the game early with an ankle injury and had to be replaced by Carson Wentz. While from a narrative perspective, Wentz taking over the offense and leading the team to a Super Bowl win over Philly would be perhaps the greatest revenge in NFL history, for now Mahomes looks like he's going to gut it out, and we've seen what he can do even on a bum wheel. The receiver room could get Hollywood Brown back this week too, though I'm not sure he's exactly a big upgrade on DeAndre Hopkins or Xavier Worthy. Brown is probably just one more guy who can deliver decent but vaguely disappointing numbers in a passing game that hasn't really been elite since 2022. Kansas City has held three consecutive opponents to less than 20 points and did collect six takeaways against Cleveland last week, but they won't face Jameis Winston again. Just a few weeks ago, this was a unit that coughed up 27 points to the Panthers and 434 yards to the Raiders. That head-to-head loss to Josh Allen and the Bills could yet loom large in the battle for the AFC's top seed.

Key Info

HOU injuries: WR John Metchie (out, shoulder), LB Christian Harris (questionable, ankle), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (out, suspension), S Jalen Pitre (IR, pectoral)
KC injuries: WR Hollywood Brown (IR, shoulder), S Chamarri Conner (out, concussion)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
HOU DFS targets: Texans DST
KC DFS targets: none

HOU DFS fades: none
KC DFS fades: Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco/Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce/Noah Gray

Weather notes: temperature in the mid-30s

The Scoop

Mixon gains 60 yards. Stroud throws for 250 yards and three TDs, two to Nico Collins and one to Dalton Schultz. Pacheco leads the KC backfield with 60 yards and a touchdown. Mahomes throws for 220 yards and a score to Worthy, but he gets sacked four times and briefly leaves the game again. Texans 24-23

Pittsburgh (+6.5) at Baltimore, o/u 45.0 – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST

This game could well decide the AFC North. The Steelers won the first 2024 meeting back in Week 11, and another victory here clinches the division — they'll be two games up with two left to play, and they'll hold the tiebreaker. A loss, and the two rivals are tied, with Pittsburgh facing the tougher final two matchups and on a two-game losing streak. Russell Wilson's been ... good, I suppose, but hardly consistent since the Steelers' Week 9 bye. The last six games he's had one huge game against a Bengals defense that gives up big games to everyone. Other than that, he's had one strong performance in Cleveland (75.0 percent completion rate and a 9.6 YPA, but only one TD) and four games in which he failed to top a 64.0 percent completion rate, a 7.0 YPA or 205 passing yards. Not having George Pickens available has definitely hurt, but Wilson's malaise started before his top wideout got hurt. The Steelers also don't necessarily need a lot from their passing game — that's just not how the team is built, and his 5.7 YPA in the win over Baltimore was his lowest of the season — but their margin for error is a lot narrower, as last week's drubbing by the Eagles showed. Wilson will probably have to make at least a couple big plays to lock up Pittsburgh's first division crown since 2020.

The Ravens have been alternating wins and losses since early November, which doesn't bode well for this one after last week's rout of the Giants, but their pattern is actually a lot more stable than that. Baltimore has won every game this season in which it's scored at least 28 points, and lost every one in which it hasn't. Earlier in the year, the Ravens needed the offense to pop off because the secondary was a mess, but over the last month or so DC Zach Orr has finally gotten his unit pointed in the right direction, and four consecutive QBs (well, five, since the Giants used two guys last week) have failed to reach 220 passing yards against it, including Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert and, yes, Russell Wilson. Lamar Jackson has been doing his best not to let Josh Allen run away with the MVP race, posting an absurd 24:1 TD:INT in the last eight games, but Derrick Henry has slowed and has just one 100-yard performance and two rushing TDs in the last five games. If the defense is back to Baltimore's usual standards, the team can maybe get away with not having a dominant rushing attack. But if Henry does find that extra gear down the stretch, the Ravens could be the team absolutely no one wants to face in the postseason.

Key Info

PIT injuries: WR George Pickens (out, hamstring), WR Roman Wilson (IR, hamstring), LB Cole Holcomb (PUP, knee), S DeShon Elliott (out, hamstring)
BAL injuries: WR Rashod Bateman (questionable, foot), WR Nelson Agholor (out, concussion), WR Diontae Johnson (out, personal), EDGE Odafe Oweh (questionable, ankle)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
PIT DFS targets: Van Jefferson
BAL DFS targets: none

PIT DFS fades: Najee Harris/Jaylen Warren, Calvin Austin
BAL DFS fades: none

Weather notes: temperature in the low 30s, 10-15 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of snow

The Scoop

Harris manages 50 yards. Wilson throws for 240 yards and two scores, one each to Jefferson and Pat Freiermuth. Henry busts out for 120 yards and two TDs. Jackson throws for 230 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers. Ravens 28-20

EARLY SUNDAY

New York Giants (+9) at Atlanta, o/u 42.0 – Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST

With nine straight losses, the Giants have settled into the second overall pick in the 2025 draft, with only the Raiders' inferior strength of schedule keeping them in the No. 1 slot. There are still five teams with three wins just behind the 2-12 squads though, so Big Blue might not be able to afford getting complacent and accidentally winning one. Last week's split of QB snaps between Tommy DeVito and Tim Boyle went about as well as you might expect, but Drew Lock figures to be healthy enough to take back over for this one. Lock's not really an improvement, but at least he offers the vague promise of hypothetical upside as a second-round pick from 2019. Tyrone Tracy has struggled since the team's Week 11 bye, managing just 3.4 yards per carry, and he's now playing through an ankle issue. Somehow, Malik Nabers has maintained a stable floor amidst the chaos, seeing double-digit targets in three straight games while posting a 23-230-1 line on 37 targets. This offense hasn't scored at least 23 points or reached 400 yards since Week 5, and that game against the Seahawks was the only time this season the Giants have hit either number. Explain to me again why this isn't Brian Daboll's fault?

Speaking of struggling offenses, the Falcons finally decided to pull the plug on Kirk Cousins after another poor performance. The veteran QB did throw his first TD since Week 9 in last week's win over the Raiders, but a 1:9 TD:INT (which, frankly, could have been worse – he put the ball on the carpet five times during that stretch, but Atlanta recovered all five fumbles) forced Raheem Morris to hand the reins over to Michael Penix, the eighth overall pick in the 2024 draft. It's a heck of a time to try and find out if the kid is ready, considering the Falcons are just one game back of the Bucs in the race for the NFC South title. They do hold the tiebreaker edge, so Penix just needs to win one more game than Baker Mayfield the rest of the way. The rookie gets the Giants, Commanders and Panthers; Mayfield faces the Cowboys, Panthers and Saints. I mean, it's not impossible... Penix's mobility should help, but sacks weren't really an issue for Cousins despite his statuesque form in the pocket. Getting the ball to his best weapons was. Drake London did score his first TD since Week 9 against Las Vegas, but he saw only three targets and hasn't had a 100-yard game since Week 5. Darnell Mooney didn't even have a catch last week, while Kyle Pitts has been on the side of milk cartons for at least a month. Bijan Robinson has reached 100 scrimmage yards in four of the last five games with four rushing scores, but that's just not enough, and so the season is now in Penix's hands. No pressure, kid.

Key Info

NYG injuries: RB Tyrone Tracy (questionable, ankle), DT Dexter Lawrence (IR, elbow), EDGE Brian Burns (questionable, ankle), LB Bobby Okereke (out, back)
ATL injuries: K Younghoe Koo (IR, hip), LB Troy Andersen (IR, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
NYG DFS targets: Wan'Dale Robinson
ATL DFS targets: Drake London, Ray-Ray McCloud, Kyle Pitts

NYG DFS fades: none
ATL DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Tracy puts together 50 yards. Lock throws for under 200 yards but does hit Nabers for his first passing touchdown of the season. Robinson churns out 100 combined yards and a score. Penix throws for under 200 yards as well and tosses a pick-six to fellow rookie and former PAC-12 rival Darius Muasau, but he rallies in the second half and throws his first career TD to London. Falcons 23-17

Arizona at Carolina (+4.5), o/u 47.0 – Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST

A win over the Patriots last week pulled the Cardinals back from the brink, but their playoff hopes are still iffy. While the Cards are only one game back in the NFC West, they now have two teams ahead of them at 8-6, and the Seahawks swept the season series and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. Kyler Murray, who had a 3:5 TD:INT during Arizona's three-game losing streak coming out their Week 11 bye, didn't throw a pick last week but also didn't throw a touchdown. That's been the trend this season – while his 69.0 percent completion rate and 7.2 YPA are back to his pre-injury level, he's only produced 19 TDs (15 passing, four rushing) in 14 games after racking up 29 (24 and five) over 14 games in 2021. James Conner is on the cusp of his second straight 1,000-yard campaign and Trey McBride has been the most productive non-rookie tight end in the league when it comes to catches and receiving yards, but somehow none of his 89 receptions have gotten him into the end zone. If the Cards do end up falling short of the postseason, that inability to finish is something OC Drew Petzing (or whoever his replacement is) will need to solve.

The Panthers' run of respectable losses came to a crashing halt last week against the Cowboys, but you can't moral victory them all. Bryce Young got sacked six times and committed a season-high four turnovers, but he'd been taken down only 15 times in his first 10 appearances this season, and a healthy Micah Parsons can wreck any game plan. Still, 'improve the offensive line' may have gotten bumped up a spot or two on the offseason to-do list after that performance. Chuba Hubbard's also come back down to earth, failing to top 60 scrimmage yards in three of four games since Carolina's Week 11 bye, and while the decision to extend him looks a bit smarter in the wake of Jonathon Brooks' latest knee injury, it's still a questionable use of resources given the state of the franchise. The Panthers' defense remains atrocious, averaging 27.0 points and 384.5 yards allowed over the last four weeks, and while the team gets three potential chances to play spoiler down the stretch against the Cards, Bucs and Falcons, there isn't much to suggest they can actually pull it off.

Key Info

ARI injuries: RB Trey Benson (out, ankle)
CAR injuries: WR Xavier Legette (out, hip), WR Jalen Coker (questionable, quadricep), EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (questionable, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
ARI DFS targets: Kyler Murray, James Conner
CAR DFS targets: none

ARI DFS fades: none
CAR DFS fades: none

Weather notes: no weather concerns

The Scoop

Conner piles up 110 yards and two TDs. Murray throws for 240 yards and two scores, one each to McBride and Marvin Harrison. Hubbard collects 80 yards and a touchdown. Young throws for under 200 yards but hits Adam Thielen for one TD and runs in another. Cardinals 31-24

Detroit at Chicago (+6.5), o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST

Last week's game against the Bills put a serious dent in the Lions' Super Bowl chances, and not because they lost a 48-42 barn burner. David Montgomery, Alim McNeill, Carlton Davis and even depth DB Khalil Dorsey all suffered injuries that may have ended their seasons, although Detroit is holding out hope for a Montgomery return. The defensive line alone now has eight players on IR. The good news is that even if the defense falls apart, the offense might be able to bail them out. Jared Goff threw for 494 yards with five touchdowns against Buffalo, and over his last five games he's posted a 70.9 percent completion rate, 8.4 YPA and 14:1 TD:INT. Jahmyr Gibbs was already averaging 102.6 scrimmage yards and 5.0 YPC over that stretch while scoring six total TDs, so more work for him probably isn't a bad thing. Montgomery's injury could also open the door for 2024 fourth-round pick Sione Vaki to show he can be something more than a special-teams asset. The Lions' next two games are on the road, and Road Goff is generally less impressive than Home Goff, so the stage could be set for a winner-take-all NFC North clash with the Vikings in Week 18 at Ford Field.

The Bears' losing streak stands at eight games, and while moving on from Matt Eberflus was overdue, I have to question the wisdom of giving Thomas Brown the interim tag. It's not that I don't think he could be a capable head coach; it's that Caleb Williams is now on his third offensive coordinator as a rookie, going from Shane Waldron to Brown to now Chris Beatty, who began the year as the WR coach. Williams has put together a tidy 8:0 TD:INT over the last four games despite all that turmoil, but his 62.1 percent completion rate and 6.6 YPA are pedestrian at best. Cole Kmet has disappeared from the game plan, seeing only four targets in the last three games, with wideouts have been plenty busy. DJ Moore has a 29-298-2 line on 39 targets in those four games, while Keenan Allen has produced a 23-271-4 line on 41 targets and even rookie Rome Odunze has a 13-145-2 line on 28 targets. Chicago has a tough closing schedule against playoff-caliber teams who will likely have things to play for, so they might not win another game in 2024. The focus has to be on letting Williams find a rhythm to wrap up his first pro season, rather than getting beaten down behind a shaky offensive line – he's been sacked a league-high 58 times this season, with C.J. Stroud a distant second at 45.

Key Info

DET injuries: RB David Montgomery (out, knee), EDGE Aidan Hutchinson (IR, lower leg), LB Alex Anzalone (IR, forearm), CB Carlton Davis (IR, jaw), S Brian Branch (questionable, calf)
CHI injuries: S Jaquan Brisker (IR, concussion)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
DET DFS targets: Jahmyr Gibbs, Jameson Williams
CHI DFS targets: none

DET DFS fades: Tim Patrick
CHI DFS fades: Cole Kmet

Weather notes: temperature in the low 30s, 15-20 mph wind, 15-25 percent chance of rain/snow

The Scoop

Gibbs glides for 120 yards and a score, while Craig Reynolds adds his first TD of the season. Goff throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns, finding Williams and Sam LaPorta. D'Andre Swift manages 70 scrimmage yards and a score. Caleb throws for under 200 yards but does hit Moore for a TD. Lions 31-14

Tennessee (+3.5) at Indianapolis, o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST

The Titans have seen enough from Will Levis to determine he's not their quarterback of the future. Mason Rudolph will take over reins of the offense, but the problem is, the team may not be bad enough to find their next franchise QB in the 2025 draft. Tennessee's currently set to pick sixth, which might mean they either need to trade up, or gamble on someone like Jalen Milroe. (Or throw a big bag of money at Sam Darnold, which might be the Titans' best option.) Rudolph had a 4:4 TD:INT during a three-start stretch in the middle of the season when Levis was injured, and while he looked pretty good against the Bengals last week in relief, that's the Bengals. Then again, his closing stretch features three more secondaries that have been less than stellar this season, so maybe he can put up the kind of numbers that will earn him decent money as a backup next season. Tyjae Spears is coming off his best performance of the season as a pass-catcher, and with Tony Pollard not 100 percent, the second-year back could see more work on the ground as well. Calvin Ridley's been somewhat quiet over the last month or so, but his best game of the season (10-143-0 on 15 targets in Week 8 against the Lions) came with Rudolph under center, so he could also have a big finish to a mostly disappointing campaign. He is just 221 yards shy of 1,000.

The Colts' playoff chances aren't completely gone, but they're hanging by the slimmest of threads. They need to win out, and if they end up tied with anyone for the final wild-card spot in the AFC, it needs to be the Chargers since Indy got whupped by Denver last week. The Colts haven't beaten a non-AFC East team since Week 6, but that team was the Titans at least. Anthony Richardson continues to look like a guy who just isn't ready for the NFL, posting a 3:4 TD:INT, 50.0 percent completion rate and 6.0 YPA over the last four games, and while he's kept his fantasy value afloat with four rushing TDs over that stretch, the Indy offense has averaged just 18.0 points and 290.8 yards over that stretch. Jonathan Taylor should have scored his first touchdown since Week 8 last week, but instead he let go of the ball before crossing the goal line on a 41-yard dash, the first in a series of disastrous second-half plays that reached its nadir with this inept attempt at a trick play. Every AFC contender is salivating at the thought of getting to face these guys in the playoffs.

Key Info

TEN injuries: QB Will Levis (questionable, shoulder), RB Tony Pollard (questionable, ankle), K Nick Folk (questionable, abdomen), LB Kenneth Murray (questionable, hamstring), LB Luke Gifford (out, concussion), CB L'Jarius Sneed (IR, quadricep), S Quandre Diggs (IR, foot)
IND injuries: WR Alec Pierce (out, concussion), K Matt Gay (questionable, neck), EDGE Samson Ebukam (IR, Achilles), LB E.J. Speed (out, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
TEN DFS targets: none
IND DFS targets: Jonathan Taylor

TEN DFS fades: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
IND DFS fades: Josh Downs

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Spears leads the TEN backfield with 70 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Rudolph throws for 200 yards and two TDs, hitting Ridley and Chigoziem Okonkwo. Taylor pops for 100 combined yards and a score. Richardson throws for 200 yards and runs in a touchdown. Colts 23-21

Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets (+3.5), o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST

With the Rams moving into the lead in the NFC West this week – they're tied with the Seahawks at 8-6, but won the first meeting between them – every team in the division has held the lead at some point this season, making it the only division in the league that can boast that level of chaos. Round of applause all around, folks, excellent job. As it stands, the NFC West is also the only division in which all four teams are still alive in the postseason chase, but that could end soon enough as the Niners are close to getting the chop. The Rams have won three straight and have all the momentum among the group, as that stretch includes a ridiculous 44-42 victory over the Bills. Matthew Stafford didn't throw a TD last week against San Francisco, but he also hasn't committed a turnover in five straight starts, posting a 10:0 TD:INT, 66.0 percent completion rate and 8.3 YPA during that span. Kyren Williams is on another tear, piling up 371 rushing yards and four scores in the last four contests, but Cooper Kupp has been oddly hit or miss, failing to catch a pass at all last week and managing just a 3-17-0 line on six targets a few weeks ago against the Saints. Demarcus Robinson's also turned back into a pumpkin with zero catches on two total targets in the last two games, but that was bound to happen. The Rams finish up with the Cards and 'Hawks at home, so there's a chance they could get caught looking past the Jets here, but Sean McVay and Stafford should know better.

Last week's win over the Jags was hardly a turning point in their lost season, but the offense at least does seem to have finally come together. Over their last four games, New York's averaged 26.5 points, and the team has topped 400 yards in back-to-back contests. Aaron Rodgers threw three touchdowns last week, just the second time this season he's done that, and during that four-game surge he's posted an 8:1 TD:INT, albeit with a less impressive 62.8 percent completion rate and 7.3 YPA. Davante Adams has, maybe predictably, emerged as his first look, seeing double-digit targets in three straight, but Garrett Wilson hasn't been completely ignored. Breece Hall has been banged up during that time as well, so the Jets' attack could even find another gear over the final weeks if he regains his form. The defense is missing some key pieces, and it shows, but with three chances to be the Grinch against teams with something at stake before the Jets can hit the beach, Rodgers can indulge his inner unwashed socks.

Key Info

LAR injuries: LB Troy Reeder (IR, hamstring)
NYJ injuries: RB Braelon Allen (questionable, back), DT Quinnen Williams (questionable, hamstring), LB C.J. Mosley (IR, neck)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
LAR DFS targets: Cooper Kupp
NYJ DFS targets: Allen Lazard

LAR DFS fades: none
NYJ DFS fades: none

Weather notes: temperature in the mid-20s, 8-10 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of snow 

The Scoop

Williams racks up 100 scrimmage yards and a TD. Stafford throws for 220 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Kupp and Puka Nacua. Hall picks up 80 yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Rodgers throws for 210 yards and a second touchdown to Lazard. Rams 27-24

Philadelphia at Washington (+3.5), o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST

The Eagles extended their winning streak to 10 games last week, longest active streak in the league, and as a result they can clinch the NFC East with another victory here. The top seed in the conference is also within their sights, as they're currently tied with the wounded Lions at 12-2. Philly's also beaten Washington in six of their last seven meetings, including three straight at Northwest Stadium/FedEx Field (which reminds me, who decided it was OK to call a stadium in the Eastern time zone 'Northwest Stadium'? Northwest of what, Virginia Beach?), so they should feel pretty comfortable coming into this one. Despite that consistent success, complaints were mounting about the state of the passing game, so OC Kellen Moore and Jalen Hurts went out last week and proved they can, in fact, just flip the switch whenever they want to. Hurts' 9.1 YPA was his best mark since Week 10, while his 290 passing yards were his highest total since Week 3. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith each topped 100 yards with a TD, and for once it was Saquon Barkley who had to take a back seat. Barklet now needs 312 yards over the final three games to reach 2,000, and 417 to catch Eric Dickerson – not impossible, but a lot less likely than it seemed a week ago. The defense has also held six straight opponents to 20 points or less, including the Commanders in Week 11, and you can certainly make the case that the Eagles are the best team in the league right now, as four of the last five teams they've downed could wind up being playoff teams.

That doesn't mean the Commanders are a lost cause in this one, though. Far from it. That first meeting came with Jayden Daniels at far less than 100 percent due to bruised ribs, and even so, they only lost by a single score to the Eagles in Philly. The Commanders actually held the lead going into the fourth quarter before the game turned into the Saquon Barkley Show. With Daniels feeling and looking better, Washington's won two straight and have their first postseason berth since 2020 within reach. Only two rookie QBs in history have ever thrown for 3,000 yards and run for 700, but Daniels is 44 rushing yards away from making it three. (The other two are Cam Newton in 2011 and, err, Robert Griffin III in 2012. Not to bring up bad memories for Washington fans.) Terry McLaurin's also on a tear, posting a 20-248-5 line on 24 targets over the last three games, but the defense is still having trouble keeping better units down. If they're going to pull off the upset here, it's probably have to come via something ridiculous from Daniels, again.

Key Info

PHI injuries: TE Dallas Goedert (IR, knee), EDGE Bryce Huff (IR, wrist)
WAS injuries: RB Austin Ekeler (IR, concussion), WR Noah Brown (IR, kidney), TE Zach Ertz (questionable, concussion/shoulder), K Austin Seibert (IR, groin), DT Jonathan Allen (IR, pectoral), S Jeremy Chinn (questionable, concussion)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
PHI DFS targets: none
WAS DFS targets: none

PHI DFS fades: none
WAS DFS fades: Dyami Brown

Weather notes: temperature in the low 30s 

The Scoop

Barkley bangs out 130 yards and two scores. Hurts throws for 220 yards and touchdowns, both to Brown. Brian Robinson responds with 110 yards and a TD. Daniels throws for 240 yards and two scores, one each to McLaurin and Ben Sinnott. Eagles 28-27 

Cleveland (+7.5) at Cincinnati, o/u 47.0 – Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST

There is no more conclusive proof that Kevin Stefaniski hates fun than the decision to bench Jameis Winston in favor of Dorian Thompson-Robinson. OK, sure, Winston's been picked off multiple times in three straight games, but in one of those games he threw for nearly 500 yards with four TDs. DTR has yet to throw for more than 165 yards in a game in his brief career. The talking point here is that the Browns need to evaluate Thompson-Robinson for 2025, but as what, their No. 3 QB? They can't get rid of Deshaun Watson's contract, and if they head into next season with Watson atop the depth chart, they're as much as admitting they don't plan to be competitive. Nick Chubb may also have played his last game for the franchise, and Myles Garrett is doing his best Captain Spaulding impression, saying how much he'd love to stay with the Browns for his entire career, but not if it's just to be part of another rebuild. Starting DTR feels like the first step toward blowing it all up, taking their lumps until they can clear Watson off the books, and then hopefully field a roster fans will want to see in their shiny new stadium five years down the road.

The Bengals somehow aren't dead yet, clinging to life in the wild-card race at 6-8 after consecutive wins over the Cowboys and Titans. They basically need to win out, have the Broncos lose all their remaining games (Thursday was a nice start), and not have either the Dolphins or Colts end up with a winning record. No problem. If Cincy does somehow thread that needle, Joe Burrow really ought to win the MVP. I don't care what sort of numbers Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson or whoever end up with – Burrow has thrown at least three TDs in six straight games, and he is the only reason this team isn't already fully looking ahead to 2025. He has at least some help, as Chase Brown has 730 scrimmage yards and six total touchdowns over those six games, while Ja'Marr Chase has hauled in eight TDs over the last five contests. The defense produced six takeaways last week, equalling its total from the prior six games combined, but still somehow gave up 27 points and nearly 400 yards of offense. In fact, the last team the Bengals below 20 points was... the Browns in Week 7, which was also the game in which Thompson-Robinson has seen his most extensive action so far this season. Hmm.

Key Info

CLE injuries: QB Jameis Winston (questionable, shoulder), RB Nick Chubb (IR, foot), WR Cedric Tillman (out, concussion), TE David Njoku (questionable, hamstring), LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (IR, neck)
CIN injuries: K Evan McPherson (IR, groin), LB Logan Wilson (IR, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
CLE DFS targets: Jerome Ford
CIN DFS targets: Ja'Marr Chase

CLE DFS fades: none
CIN DFS fades: none

Weather notes: temperature in the low 30s, 1-10 percent chance of snow 

The Scoop

Ford picks up 80 combined yards and a touchdown. Thompson-Robinson throws for under 200 yards and gets picked off twice, but he does find Jerry Jeudy for a score. Brown generates 80 scrimmage yards and a TD. Burrow throws for 330 yards and three touchdowns, two to Chase (who tops 100 yards) and one to Andrei Iosivas. Bengals 31-17

LATE SUNDAY

Minnesota at Seattle (+3), o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The door may be open for the Vikings to claim the NFC North title, and even the top seed in the conference. They're tied with the Lions at 12-2, and they're a heck of a lot healthier. Minnesota's won seven straight, and the last two against Atlanta and Chicago haven't been close, with a combined score of 72-33. Sam Darnold turned in a lackluster effort last week against the Bears, but he basically earns more money as a free agent with every victory, and he's cruising toward his first career 4,000-yard, 30-TD campaign. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison have been maybe the best wideout duo in the league over the last month, the defense has been stout, and the biggest area of concern has maybe been Aaron Jones' ball security issues. Their closing schedule isn't easy, but the Vikes are already playing with house money in 2024.

At 8-6, the Seahawks are effectively tied for the NFC West lead, but last week's relative no-show at home against the Packers was more than a bit worrying. Seattle's last three losses have come to playoff-caliber teams (the Rama and Bills being the other two), and nine wins likely won't be enough to get them into the postseason. Geno Smith also left last week's game with a knee issue, but it won't keep him out of the lineup – at least, it won't this week. He hasn't thrown multiple TDs in a game since before the team's Week 10 bye though, and the Seahawks will need to get more from him to get over the hump. DK Metcalf has also gone quiet, leaving Jaxon Smith-Njigba as Seattle's only reliable downfield threat. Kenneth Walker should be back from a calf injury this week, but Zach Charbonnet was a relative monster in his absence (188 rushing yards and three TDs over the last two games with a 6.3 YPC) and may have pushed his way into a timeshare. Leaning more on the backfield may not be the worst idea with Smith struggling to get the ball into the end zone, to be honest.

Key Info

MIN injuries: LB Ivan Pace (IR, hamstring), S Harrison Smith (questionable, foot)
SEA injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

DFS Lineup Optimizer
MIN DFS targets: Vikings DST
SEA DFS targets: none

MIN DFS fades: none
SEA DFS fades: Geno Smith

Weather notes: 90-99 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Jones splashes for 50 yards and a TD, but he also loses a fumble that Tyrice Knight returns to the house. Darnold throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson. Walker leads the SEA backfield with 50 yards. Smith throws for under 200 yards and a score to JSN. 24-17

New England (+14) at Buffalo, o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Patriots have lost four straight, and there hasn't been much to suggest the team is about to turn a corner. Drake Maye's thrown a pick in six straight games, posting a 7:7 TD:INT over that stretch, and while his 70.8 percent completion rate over that stretch is impressive, it's mostly been short, safe passes – he has a 6.8 YPA, and he hasn't had a completion of 40-plus yards since Week 6. Given the kid's arm, the only valid excuse for not letting him chuck it deep more often is that he doesn't have a wide receiver capable of getting open downfield. The defense is also sagging, allowing 29.3 points and 355.8 yards over the last four contests, and now it has to face the most potent offense in the entire NFL. A 14-point spread doesn't do justice to how lopsided this matchup is on paper. The Pats have lost five of the last six meetings, including three straight in Buffalo by an average score of about 36-20 – and one of those three New England teams made the playoffs. This New England team... won't.

The Bills rebounded from a ridiculous 44-42 loss to the Rams with an even more ridiculous 48-42 win over the Lions, becoming just the second team in NFL history to play consecutive games in which both teams hit for 40-plus. (The 1966 Giants were the other.) They're also on the verge of another record, as scoring 30 or more points here would make them the first team even with nine straight such performances. They may not stop there either, considering their remaining schedule features the Jets and then round two against New England. Josh Allen has been a man on a mission, scoring at least one rushing TD in five straight contests and producing 16 total scores (eight of each) during that span against only three INTs. James Cook has also been on a tear, getting into the end zone eight times in the last seven games with 596 scrimmage yards. The truly scary thing is, the Bills' offense isn't even firing on all cylinders yet. Those 48 points last week came without Amari Cooper even getting a target, which might be the most mind-boggling stat I've ever seen. The biggest obstacle to them reaching 30 again will be the weather, but even Old Man Winter is going to have a hard time denying Allen if he wants that record. 

Key Info

NE injuries: LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (IR, pectoral), S Kyle Dugger (questionable, ankle)
BUF injuries: WR Curtis Samuel (questionable, ribs), LB Matt Milano (questionable, bicep), LB Dorian Williams (questionable, elbow), S Damar Hamlin (questionable, ribs), S Taylor Rapp (questionable, neck)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
NE DFS targets: none
BUF DFS targets: Josh Allen

NE DFS fades: none
BUF DFS fades: none

Weather notes: temperature in the single digits 

The Scoop

Rhamondre Stevenson plows ahead for 60 yards and a score. Maye throws for under 200 yards and turns the ball over three times. Cook collects 90 yards and a TD. Allen throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Cooper while running in two more scores of his own. Bills 31-10 

Jacksonville (+1.5) at Las Vegas, o/u 39.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Jaguars were back to their losing ways last week, and their 3-11 record has them currently set to pick fourth in the 2025 draft. Given how much help they need on both sides of the ball, maybe they should take Travis Hunter. Mac Jones has seen action in five straight games and stumbled to a 4:7 TD:INT, but the team doesn't have any better options to fill in for Trevor Lawrence. Jones' supporting cast keeps getting thinner too, with Evan Engram the latest top target to be lost for the rest of the season. More volume for Brian Thomas, I guess. The defense is going to need to be completely rebuilt over the spring, though. The Jags are last in takeaways, last in yards per play allowed and last in QB rating against, and they could add more categories to that list like third-down defense and sacks before they're done. Individual players like bookend pass rushers Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker have done OK, but like the QBs, they've gotten little help. Arik Armstead got a sack in his Jacksonville debut back in Week 1, and has barely been heard from since, for instance. It's pretty clear that DC Ryan Nielsen needs to go, but whether he's the scapegoat that saves Doug Pederson's job or is part of a wider housecleaning is the bigger question.

Bad as the Jags have been, the Raiders have managed to be worse. They currently hold the top pick in next year's draft, and if they don't screw that up, they'll have a chance to undo one of the bleakest draft records in the entire league when it comes to QBs. The last quarterback the franchise drafted itself who was any good was Derek Carr (which might stretch the definition of "good"), and before that it was Kenny Stabler. Both those guys were second-round picks. Here are the quarterbacks the Raiders have taken in the first round since they failed to sign Roman Gabriel in 1962: Marc Wilson, Todd Marinovich, JaMarcus Russell. Wilson had the best career of the three, and he's the least well known. In the here and now, Desmond Ridder got the nod under center last week and was pretty bad, but Aidan O'Connell will be back this week to be not quite as bad. Brock Bowers will be happy to see O'Connell back, as the rookie tight end had just a 6-84-0 line on 11 targets over the last two games with Ridder seeing most of the snaps. Bowers is 10 catches away from 100, and 32 yards from 1,000, and the Raiders don't have much else to root for the rest of the way.

Key Info

JAC injuries: QB Trevor Lawrence (IR, shoulder), TE Evan Engram (IR, shoulder)
LV injuries: RB Sincere McCormick (IR, ankle), EDGE Maxx Crosby (IR, ankle)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
JAC DFS targets: none
LV DFS targets: Aidan O'Connell, Tre Tucker, Brock Bowers

JAC DFS fades: none
LV DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Travis Etienne ekes out 40 yards. Jones throws for under 200 yards and hits Thomas for a touchdown. Alexander Mattison leads the LV backfield with 60 yards, but he loses a fumble that Devin Lloyd takes to the house. O'Connell throws for 220 yards and two scores, one each to Bowers and Jakobi Meyers. Raiders 20-17 

San Francisco (+1.5) at Miami, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Weird fact of the week: the 49ers have never finished second in the NFC West under Kyle Shanahan. In his seven seasons so far at the helm, they've got three firsts, two thirds and two fourths. That doesn't seem likely to change in 2024 either – they're fourth and fading fast, as the injury bug just won't go away. San Francisco's down to what on paper is its fifth-string (or lower) running back, as Isaac Guerendo joins Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason on the sidelines. That leaves Packers castoff Patrick Taylor and Jets castoff Israel Abanikanda to handle the load, and putting the whole "any RB can succeed in Shanahan's scheme" theory to perhaps its ultimate test. (Trey Sermon says hi from Indianapolis.) While Taylor's supposed to get the start, I still think the speedy Abanikanda seems more like the kind of guy who will make the most of the open space Shanahan can conjure for his players. Without a trustworthy run game to rely on, Brock Purdy has struggled, failing to throw for even 200 yards in three of his last four games and posting a 3:2 TD:INT, 64.7 percent completion rate and 7.1 YPA over that stretch. Really though, almost all of that production came in a win over the Bears. He hasn't put up good numbers against a potential playoff team since Week 10 in Tampa Bay. Whether he's still dealing with shoulder soreness or is simply trying to do too much is tough to say, but a closing schedule that sees the Niners face the Lions and Cardinals after this one doesn't offer must hope of a late-season miracle that gets them into the playoffs. De'Vondre Campbell effectively quitting on the team isn't a great sign for what's happening in the locker room either, but maybe Dre Greenlaw's return smooths that over.

The Dolphins are in even more desperate straits, needing to win out and get plenty of help just to sneak into the final wild-card spot in the AFC. Last week's sluggish loss to the Texans didn't make them look like a team that deserved to keep playing after Week 18 either, as Tua Tagovailoa committed four turnovers and Miami's leading receiver was Malik Washington. Both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are attempting to play through injuries, and Jonnu Smith can't do it all. The run game has almost completely disappeared in Mike McDaniel's offense too. De'Von Achane makes his living as a pass-catcher these days, and he's topped 50 rushing yards only once in the last six weeks. A sweep of their final three games certainly seems possible (the Dolphins are on the road against the Browns and Jets after this), but that probably won't be enough, and they're quite capable of blowing at least one of those would-be easy victories. 

Key Info

SF injuries: RB Christian McCaffrey (IR, knee), RB Jordan Mason (IR, ankle), RB Isaac Guerendo (out, hamstring), EDGE Nick Bosa (questionable, hip), LB Dre Greenlaw (questionable, Achilles), LB De'Vondre Campbell (out, suspension)
MIA injuries: WR Tyreek Hill (questionable, wrist), WR Jaylen Waddle (doubtful, knee), EDGE Bradley Chubb (PUP, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
SF DFS targets: none
MIA DFS targets: none

SF DFS fades: none
MIA DFS fades: Tyreek Hill

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Abanikanda leads the SF backfield with 60 yards and a TD. Purdy throws for 200 yards and two touchdowns, finding George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. Achane gets held to 50 yards with a receiving score. Tagovailoa comes out firing and finishes with 310 yards and two more TDs, one each to Smith and River Cracraft. Washington also returns a kickoff to the house for some insurance. Dolphins 31-21

SUNDAY NIGHT

Tampa Bay at Dallas (+4), o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

As expected, the Buccaneers have ridden a soft closing schedule to four straight wins and a one-game lead on the Falcons in the NFC South. Last week's win over the Chargers was the one potential speed bump – they otherwise haven't faced a team with a winning record since losing to Kansas City in Week 9, and they won't until the playoffs, as they wrap up their slate with the Panthers and Saints. Baker Mayfield's been on fire, chucking seven TDs over the last two games and topping a 10.0 YPA in each one, and over the winning streak he's got a 71.4 percent completion rate and 9.3 YPA. Five INTs and two fumbles against eight touchdowns isn't the best of ratios, but he's gotten away with it. Surprisingly, the Bucs have become a running team during that stretch, topping 150 rushing yards as a team in all four wins. Partially that's a result of game script – Tampa's won by an average score of 31-15 – but Bucky Irving and Rachaad White have also formed an impressive duo. Irving barely played in Week 14 due to nagging injuries, and he still has 468 scrimmage yards and a 6.4 YPC during the win streak, while White has four TDs, 315 scrimmage yards and a 4.9 YPC. Mike Evans has also come up big when called upon, but if the Bucs keep up this ground assault, they might surprise some people if they get the right wild-card matchup. Right now they'd be hosting the Packers as the No. 3 seed; Green Bay's got a good run defense, but not an elite one.

That the Cowboys are still mathematically alive is a hoot. They've won three of their last four against generally poor competition, thanks largely to the defense finally starting to get healthy in the right places. Dallas has 10 takeaways and 18 sacks in those four games, numbers Dan Quinn would have been proud of, and Micah Parsons has 5.5 of those sacks himself. Like the Bucs, the Cowboys' run game has come to life late, and Rico Dowdle has reeled off three straight 100-yard performances, amassing 392 rushing yards and a 6.0 YPC over that stretch. Cooper Rush has also been his usual competent self, and while it's almost certainly too late to make the postseason and maybe too late to save Mike McCarthy's job if Jerry Jones needs a new distraction from how badly he's mismanaged the franchise, the Cowboys represent a real threat as a spoiler to their remaining opponents.

Key Info

TB injuries: TE Cade Otton (out, knee), LB K.J. Britt (doubtful, ankle), S Antoine Winfield (out, knee), S Jordan Whitehead (IR, pectoral)
DAL injuries: EDGE Micah Parsons (questionable, illness), EDGE DeMarcus Lawrence (IR, foot), LB Eric Kendricks (questionable, calf), LB DeMarvion Overshown (IR, knee), CB Trevon Diggs (out, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
TB DFS targets: none
DAL DFS targets: Cowboys DST

TB DFS fades: none
DAL DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Irving erupts for 120 yards and a score, while White adds 60 yards and a TD. Mayfield throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Evans and Sterling Shepard. Dowdle responds with 80 yards and a score. Rush throws for 240 yards and two TDs, finding CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson. Buccaneers 34-24

MONDAY NIGHT

New Orleans (+14.5) at Green Bay, o/u 42.0 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

For what it's worth, the Saints are the worst team in the league that's not yet eliminated from the playoffs. At 5-9, they could still run the table and win the NFC South. They've come pretty close to staying more firmly in the hunt though, despite all their injuries. New Orleans is 3-3 in its last six, and all three losses were by a single score to playoff-caliber teams. Derek Carr isn't ready to return, so Spencer Rattler will get another start after replacing Jake Haener last week. Rattler's at least completed over 50 percent of his passes this year, so relatively speaking, I suppose he's an upgrade. The offense is in tatters around whoever is unlucky enough to be at QB though – no Alvin Kamara, no Taysom Hill, no Chris Olave. The Saints have gone three straight games without scoring at least 20 points, and that was with Carr in the lineup for two of them.

The Packers have won double-digit games for the first time since 2021, and all it's likely to get them is a road game in the wild-card round against a team with an inferior record. They could still in theory win the NFC North, but it would take complete collapses by both the Lions and Vikings, which seems highly unlikely. While they aren't the Bills, the Pack have scored at least 30 points in four straight games, with Jordan Love posting a sharp 7:0 TD:INT over that stretch with a 67.3 percent completion rate and 8.9 YPA. Josh Jacobs remains the linchpin of the offense though , getting into the end zone in five straight contests and piling up 559 scrimmage yards and nine rushing TDs over that stretch. He's only averaged 3.6 YPC, but 10 carries at the goal line and 22 from inside the 10-yard line didn't give him a lot of room to roam. The Green Bay defense has also been stingy, holding four of its last five opponents under 20 points (with Detroit being the only exception) despite a banged-up secondary. Jaire Alexander could be back from a four-game absence this week though, and the Packers can afford to give their guys all the time they need to heal up before the playoffs.

Key Info

NO injuries: QB Derek Carr (out, hand), RB Alvin Kamara (out, groin), WR Chris Olave (IR, concussion), WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (questionable, illness)
GB injuries: RB MarShawn Lloyd (NFI, appendix), LB Quay Walker (out, ankle), CB Jaire Alexander (questionable, knee), S Javon Bullard (out, ankle)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
NO DFS targets: none
GB DFS targets: Josh Jacobs

NO DFS fades: none
GB DFS fades: Jayden Reed

Weather notes: temperature in the high 20s, 1-10 percent chance of snow

The Scoop

Kendre Miller pops for 80 yards and a touchdown. Rattler throws for under 200 yards but does find Foster Moreau for a TD. Jacobs rumbles for 130 yards and two scores. Love throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Tucker Kraft and Christian Watson. Packers 31-14

THURSDAY NIGHT

Denver (+2.5) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 41.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EST

The Broncos are oh-so-close to clinching a playoff spot, needing only not to lose Thursday. Even if they blow it against the Bolts, a combination of losses by the Dolphins, Bengals and Colts the next three weeks will do it. Denver's won four straight, and has completely screwed up my score-generating algorithm, winning by an average score of about 35-18 but getting three defensive touchdowns along the way. Bo Nix has started to look like a rookie again, tossing five INTs in the last two games against only four TDs, and defenses seem to have figured out that Courtland Sutton is the only Bronco they really need to worry about. Not that that knowledge has helped them slow Sutton down — he's reached 70 receiving yards or gotten into the end zone, or both, in seven consecutive games while racking up a 45-601-4 line on 66 targets. DC Vance Joseph's aggressive unit makes them a potential threat to just about anyone in the playoffs, but current seeding would send the Broncos to Pittsburgh in the wild-card round, and if they fall to the seventh seed they're probably headed to Buffalo instead. In Year Two of the Sean Payton Era, they may have to settle for a "happy to be here" one and done.

The Chargers hobble into this one having dropped three of their last four games, but they're still in a wild-card spot and two games up on the trio of 6-8 teams I listed above. They also get the Pats and Raiders the last two weeks of the season, even if they're both road games, so there's no reason to panic. Yet. The injuries are piling up, though — Justin Herbert's ankle is an issue again, the running game hasn't been able to replace J.K. Dobbins, Will Dissly's set to miss a second straight game, and the secondary has taken some hits too. Herbert hasn't reached 220 passing yards in four consecutive games, managing a 64.8 percent completion rate, 6.3 YPA and 3:1 TD:INT over that stretch, and that's simply not enough to cover for a defense that just coughed up 40 points to Tampa Bay. Maybe Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack — a combined 1.5 sacks during that four-game swoon — can get going, but this isn't a good matchup for it. Nix hasn't been sacked more than twice since the Ravens got to him four times in Week 9.

Key Info

DEN injuries: RB Jaleel McLaughlin (out, quadricep)
LAC injuries: RB J.K. Dobbins (IR, knee), TE Will Dissly (out, shoulder), TE Hayden Hurst (IR, hip), LB Denzel Perryman (questionable, groin)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
DEN DFS targets: Troy Franklin, Broncos DST
LAC DFS targets: none

DEN DFS fades: none
LAC DFS fades: Gus Edwards/Kimani Vidal, Hayden Hurst/Stone Smartt

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Javonte Williams leads the DEN backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown. Nix throws for 280 yards and two TDs, finding Sutton and Franklin while also running in a score. Edwards grinds out 50 yards. Herbert throws for 210 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Ladd McConkey and Scott Matlock, but he gets sacked five times. A fumble return TD by Bosa keeps the score somewhat close. Broncos 31-21

Last week's record: 12-4, 13-3 ATS, 10-6 o/u
2024 record: 150-74, 119-103-2 ATS, 118-105-1 o/u