NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 12

NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 12

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.

The Week 12 NFL main slate begins Sunday at 1 p.m. EST and features 10 games. The Bengals, Bills, Falcons, Jaguars, Jets and Saints are on bye, while the Thursday Night Football (Steelers-Browns), Sunday Night Football (Eagles-Rams) and Monday Night Football (Ravens-Chargers) participants play outside the main slate in Week 12. Yahoo will be running plenty of NFL DFS contests for Week 12, but the biggest is the NFL $115K Guaranteed contest, which pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $115,000 to the top 1,156 finishers, including $25,000 to the winner. You can submit up to 150 entries into this contest, which has a maximum total capacity of 6,700 entries but will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay. 

Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared towards head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.

Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your NFL $115K Guaranteed lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit. Suggested Week 12 plays include a QB-WR stack with an opportunity to rekindle last season's magic, as well as a couple household names who are returning or recently returned from injuries.

QUARTERBACK

Tua Tagovailoa, MIA vs. NE ($26): Tagovailoa looks fully recovered from his latest concussion, as he tossed three TDs en route to a season-high 23.52 fantasy points in last week's win over the Raiders. It's no surprise that performance came at home considering Tua has a 23:9 TD:INT in the warm-weather confines of Hard Rock Stadium since the start of last season compared to a 15:9 mark on the road. His ability to get the ball out quickly and accurately will allow Tua to set Miami's speedy playmakers up for success against a subpar Patriots defense that has surrendered a 16:4 TD:INT, including four Matthew Stafford touchdown passes last week.

Honorable Mentions:

Bo Nix, DEN at LV ($32); Jared Goff, DET at IND ($27); Anthony Richardson, IND vs. DET ($27)

Against the Grainers:

Patrick Mahomes, KC at CAR ($31); C.J. Stroud, HOU at TEN ($23); Cooper Rush, DAL at WAS ($20)

RUNNING BACK

Joe Mixon, HOU vs. TEN ($37): Mixon should be worth paying up for, as a run-heavy game script is likely in the cards for the favored Texans against a Titans defense that has been much more vulnerable to the run than the pass. Mixon has excelled regardless of matchup, posting 11 scrimmage TDs in eight appearances while topping 100 rushing yards in all but two games. Tennessee has given up seven rushing TDs and a league-high six receiving scores to RBs this season, so Mixon could be more of a factor than usual in the passing game in addition to seeing his usual robust workload on the ground.

Isiah Pacheco, KC at CAR ($19): If Pacheco isn't activated from IR, Kareem Hunt ($19) would be a no-brainer fantasy play against a Panthers defense that has allowed the most rushing TDs (14) and second-most rushing yards (1,339) to RBs. A potential timeshare could limit both of their ceilings if Pacheco returns as expected, but it's hard to pass up this value. Pacheco should reclaim the clear No. 1 role before too long, and considering he already had a week of practice last week to shake off the rust as he recovers from a fractured fibula suffered in Week 2, it's possible that he will hit the ground running in his return. He had 189 scrimmage yards and one TD on 41 touches in less than two full games prior to getting hurt, and Pacheco averaged 17.8 touches per game last regular season.

Honorable Mentions:

Jahmyr Gibbs, DET at IND ($35); De'Von Achane, MIA vs. NE ($33); Rachaad White, TB at NYG ($28)

Against the Grainers:

Tyrone Tracy, NYG vs. TB ($26); Rhamondre Stevenson, NE at MIA ($25); Ameer Abdullah, LV vs. DEN ($10)

WIDE RECEIVER

Tyreek Hill, MIA vs. NE ($28): The speedster is a solid play regardless of whether you also deploy Tua as your QB. Hill's playing through a wrist injury, but it hasn't seemed to hamper him as he's riding a two-game TD streak after scoring only once through eight games to begin the season. Hill has a nice opportunity to extend that scoring streak against a Patriots defense that has allowed the sixth-most yards (1,745) and eighth-most TDs (11) to WRs.

DK Metcalf, SEA vs. ARI ($27): While Jaxon Smith-Njigba at $28 is a tempting target after posting 280 yards and two TDs over his last two games, a healthy Metcalf is still the top option in Seattle's passing game. Metcalf didn't show much rust after missing nearly a month due to a knee injury, posting seven catches for 70 yards in last week's win over the 49ers. He had at least 99 receiving yards in four of his last six games prior to the injury, with a TD to boot in three of those four. Arizona's defense ranks in the middle of the pack against WRs, but with nine WRs valued above him and another two coming in at an identical $27 despite the player pool being depleted in a bye-heavy week, Metcalf looks like a nice value here.

DJ Moore, CHI vs. MIN ($19): Moore was more involved last week under new OC Thomas Brown, as the four-time 1,100-yard receiver posted his second-highest total of the season in catches (seven) and third-highest mark in receiving yards (62). Rookie Rome Odunze is trending up and Keenan Allen remains on hand to compete for targets, but Moore's still the best bet in Chicago's struggling passing game to capitalize on a matchup with a Vikings defense that has excelled overall but struggled to defend WRs. Minnesota's 184.4 receiving yards allowed per game to WRs are third-most in the NFL.

Honorable Mentions:

CeeDee Lamb, DAL at WAS ($32); Malik Nabers, NYG vs. TB ($29); Josh Downs, IND vs. DET ($27)

Against the Grainers:

Marvin Harrison, ARI at SEA ($25); Deebo Samuel, SF at GB ($22); Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, TEN at HOU ($18)

TIGHT END

Luke Schoonmaker, DAL at WAS ($10): If you have the cap space to pay up for rookie sensation Brock Bowers ($26), or Travis Kelce ($25) in a highly favorable matchup, those look like strong plays too. However, it's hard to pass up this value on Schoonmaker at the minimum salary. The second-year TE caught six of 10 targets for 56 yards after Jake Ferguson exited Monday's loss to Houston due to a concussion, and Dallas' coaching staff sounded pessimistic about the starter's chances of returning on a short week. While Schoonmaker hasn't done much as a pass catcher in the NFL, he flashed enough upside to warrant a second-round selection in the 2023 NFL Draft, and Dallas' TEs have seen 22 targets in two games since Cooper Rush took over as the team's starting QB. If Ferguson sits, Schoonmaker would be a low-risk, high-reward option against a Commanders defense that has allowed a TE to post over 60 yards or a TD in six of the last seven games.

Honorable Mentions:

Brock Bowers, LV vs. DEN ($26); Travis Kelce, KC at CAR ($25); Sam LaPorta, DET at IND ($16)

Against the Grainers: 

Cade Otton, TB at NYG ($21); T.J. Hockenson, MIN at CHI ($17); Hunter Henry, NE at MIA ($13)

DEFENSE

Minnesota Vikings at CHI ($17): Locking in an affordable defense is usually advantageous, but this week could be an exception, with numerous elite defenses benefiting from favorable matchups. One such unit is Minnesota, which has posted double-digit fantasy points in eight of 10 games heading into this matchup against the flagging Bears. Rookie QB Caleb Williams is going through some major growing pains, as he has been sacked a league-high 41 times this season and has failed to throw a TD during Chicago's four-game losing streak, in which the team is averaging a meager 11.5 points per game. Vikings DC Brian Flores' scheme has confused QBs all season, and it's likely to lure Williams into plenty of mistakes.

Honorable Mentions:

Kansas City at CAR ($19); Houston Texans vs. TEN ($18); Miami Dolphins vs. NE ($13)

Against the Grainers: 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at NYG ($15); Chicago Bears vs. MIN ($14); San Francisco 49ers at GB ($13)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Sasha Yodashkin plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Youngsash, DraftKings: Yashdogg,Yahoo: Sasha, Fanball: Yashdogg.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Sasha Yodashkin
Sasha has been contributing NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB and Tennis content to RotoWire since 2015, with an emphasis on DFS. He is a huge New York sports fan who has been playing fantasy sports since middle school.
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