This article is part of our DFS NFL series.
The first Monday Night Football game of the season certainly won't be short on drama. The Seahawks will immediately have to face Russell Wilson when they play host to the Broncos. In addition to the excitement that his game brings, we also have another opportunity to play on Monkey Knife Fight.
There are three Game Types that are offered, which are "More Or Less," "Rapid Fire" and "Stat Shootout." For a full breakdown of the rules for each game, see the House Rules page. Let's dive into some of the contests within each Game Type, and discuss how things might play out.
More Or Less Contest
Let's get right to the quarterbacks. One option is a 2/2 goal for 3.5x the prize for passing yards for both quarterbacks. Wilson's prop is set at 254.5 passing yards, while Geno Smith's line is 200.5 passing yards.
This game has blowout written all over it. The Broncos have loaded up for what they hope will be a deep playoff run, while the Seahawks are starting off the post-Wilson era with the journeyman Smith at quarterback. If the Broncos race out to an early lead, we could see plenty of rushing attempts in the second half. They certainly have two capable running backs in Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon. I think the game unfolds that way, so I'll take the under on Wilson's prop.
If the Broncos build up an early lead, then Smith might need to throw the ball late as the Seahawks try to play catchup. Smith made three starts for the Seahawks last season when Wilson was injured, and he threw for at least 195 yards in two. Given his reasonable line, the over is the way to go.
Rapid Fire Contest
One option to consider is a 2/3 goal for 1.5X the prize. The choices are Wilson vs. Smith passing yards (with Smith getting a +54.5 yards bonus), Courtland Sutton vs. Jerry Jeudy receiving yards (with Jeudy getting a +4.5 yards bonus) and Williams vs. Rashaad Penny rushing yards (with Penny getting a +4.5 yards bonus).
The two we'll focus on are the receiving yards and the rushing yards props. Give me Sutton to outgain Jeudy, even with Jeudy getting the bonus. Even with the poor quarterback play that he had last season, Sutton still had at least 90 receiving yards in a game three times. Meanwhile, Jeudy never topped 77 yards in a single game.
Since I believe the Seahawks will be playing catchup for most of this game, they might have to go away from the run during the second half. That's not encouraging for Penny's upside. Also, the Broncos could lean on Williams heavily in the second half as they look to milk the clock. Given the minimal bonus that Penny will receive, I'm leaving toward Williams to outgain him.
Stat Shootout Contest
For this contest, let's look for the option where you select three players to score more than a combined 2.5 touchdowns for 2X the prize. First player I'm taking is Penny. He finished the last season by carrying the ball at least 10 times in six consecutive games. During that span, he totaled six touchdowns.
Next up is DK Metcalf, who finished last season with a career-high 12 touchdown receptions. Smith threw a total of four touchdown passes across his three games as a starter last season, and three went to Metcalf. While Metcalf has only been in the league for three years, he already has 29 touchdown receptions.
The final player to complete my trio of preferred options is Williams. The Broncos started to look his way more often when they got in close during the second half of last season, with 21 of his 31 total red-zone carries coming from Week 9 on. He is also a threat to catch a touchdown pass, given that he had three receiving scores for the season.
