Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Cardinals vs. Rams

By now the NFC has mostly revealed its power hierarchy, with four teams emerging as conference leaders. Two of those teams are the Buccaneers and Packers, but the other two are in this game, and depending on who wins the NFC top four might thin to a top three. Arizona already beat the Rams in Los Angeles in Week 4, and in an emphatic fashion, so if Arizona wins this game then we arguably might rank the Rams more alongside a team like Dallas than the big three of Tampa Bay, Green Bay and Arizona. If the Rams win this one then we'll remain with a Big Four going into Week 15.

QUARTERBACK

The Cardinals outplayed the Rams in both halves of their first match, a fact that was largely attributable to the play of Kyler Murray ($11200 DK, $17000 FD). Murray made it look easy, completing 24 of 32 pass attempts for 268 yards and two touchdowns while running for 39 yards on six carries. Those aren't the big numbers Murray is capable of, but it was highly efficient production and if the need had existed the Cardinals probably could have tapped into more volume. But the Cardinals had an 11-point lead at halftime, and a 21-point lead going into the fourth quarter, so there was no need to use all of Murray's bullets. If the Rams play this game closer then it could lead to more volume for Murray, who looked automatic on the road against the Bears in his first game back from a four-game ankle injury absence. The Rams defense is not as good as it was in 2020 and the Cardinals have the wide receiver personnel to stress the Rams' cornerback depth, so this is a manageable matchup for Murray at worst.

Matthew Stafford ($10400 DK, $15500 FD) is the quarterback likely to face the most stress in this game, for all of the following reasons: (1) general struggles lately, (2) durability troubles lately and (3) the superiority of the Arizona defense relative to the Rams. Stafford and the Rams offense could hit a new gear – one they hadn't shown the first time these teams played – if Stafford and star receiver acquisition Odell Beckham can tighten their rhythm together. While the Cardinals defense is fearsome it lives off its pass rush more than its secondary personnel, meaning they can be threatened deep if the pass rush is managed. These Cardinals corners, solid as they might be, can't cover a player like Beckham downfield. With that said, Stafford struggled a bit in the first meeting, completing 26 of 41 pass attempts for 280 yards, two touchdowns and one interception.

RUNNING BACK

With Darrell Henderson (Covid protocols) expected to miss this game it again leaves Sony Michel ($7200 DK, $12000 FD) as the clear lead running back for the Rams. Michel didn't do much the first time these teams played (three carries for 11 yards and a lost fumble), but Henderson saw 14 carries for 89 yards on the contest. It's probably easier to run on the Cardinals than throw against their pass rush, so it's conceivable that the Rams have a run-heavy game plan even despite their thinned personnel in the ground game. Michel played an obscene 64 snaps in Week 13, seeing 24 carries and four targets, so he should stay involved even if the Rams fall behind again. Mekhi Sargent ($600 DK, $6000 FD) might be a candidate play more snaps after seeing just two last week. The Rams have no other active running backs.

While the Rams' running back depth chart is badly thinned, the Cardinals could get a boost in their backfield if Chase Edmonds ($4600 DK, $10000 FD) can return from his high-ankle sprain. On DraftKings in particular Edmonds would be an interesting option if active. James Conner ($9800 DK, $13500 FD) has done a great job as Arizona's workhorse runner in Edmonds' absence, but Edmonds would likely take much if not most of the passing down work if activated. If Edmonds isn't activated, on the other hand, then Conner should get almost all of the work. Eno Benjamin ($2600 DK, $6000 FD) might not play if Edmonds is active, but if Edmonds is out then Benjamin should be the first runner off the bench behind Conner.

WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS

Cooper Kupp ($12000 DK, $15000 FD) had his worst game of the season the first time against the Cardinals, catching "just" five passes for 64 yards. Kupp saw 13 targets in that game, though, and he's highly likely to see double-digit targets in this one, too. Perhaps Kupp struggles in both matches with the Cardinals this year, but the volume is a near certainty and it's possible that the Cardinals used up their luck against him in the first game. Odell Beckham ($6200 DK, $10000 FD) needs to strike deep with Kupp and Van Jefferson ($8000 DK, $11000 FD) more so running underneath, which at once grants Beckham upside while raising his risk factor. Big plays are great, but if Beckham needs to get open deep to get his production then he needs to get open faster than the Arizona pass rush reaches Stafford. Jefferson might have the higher floor between himself and Beckham, and in the first match Jefferson was automatic with his six targets (six receptions for 90 yards and one touchdown). Ben Skowronek ($1000 DK, $6500 FD) is the only other healthy Rams receiver otherwise. Tight end Tyler Higbee ($5000 DK, $7500 FD) very rarely runs farther than 10 yards downfield, but he plays a ton of snaps and does typically see his customary allotment of checkdown targets. Kendall Blanton ($400 DK, $5500 FD) and Brycen Hopkins ($200 DK, $5000 FD) are otherwise candidates to approach double-digit snaps.

DeAndre Hopkins ($9600 DK, $12500 FD) might see surprisingly little of top corner Jalen Ramsey, who often stays in the slot where players like Christian Kirk ($5600 DK, $10500 FD), Zach Ertz ($5400 DK, $9500 FD) and Rondale Moore ($2000 DK, $7500 FD) tend to run their routes. That's not to say Kirk, Ertz and Moore are doomed – Ramsey can only cover one of them on a given play, after all – but the point is that despite the Rams' feared pass defense reputation they are actually quite vulnerable to Hopkins and even A.J. Green ($4800 DK, $9000 FD) because when Ramsey is in the slot the outside corners tend to be either bad (David Long) or short (Darious Williams). A guy like Williams can be a good corner and cover well on a play but still lose to Hopkins and Green because they play above the rim and he can't.

KICKERS

Even at 37 Matt Prater ($4200 DK, $9000 FD) still has exceptional range, so he's a candidate to knock down a 50-yard kick in any given game. He did as much the first time these teams played, propelling a 15-point fantasy day for the kicker. Matt Gay ($4000 DK, $8500 FD) is doing a great job on the other side and probably has a strong leg of his own, but Gay tends to get fewer opportunities than Prater. Gay might need the Rams to pull an upset to get over double-digit fantasy points – he had nine in the first meeting while missing a 40-plus yard field goal.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Both of these defenses have star players capable of making game-changing plays, but if the two offenses play up to their usual standards it might be tough for either DST to post a high point total. If the game is lower-scoring than expected, though, then it's possible that guys like Chandler Jones and Aaron Donald were getting to the quarterback, or maybe Isaiah Simmons or Jalen Ramsey made an improbable turnover play. The Arizona pass rush in particular is very reliable, though its  five hits on Stafford in the previous game yielded zero sacks. Both the Rams ($3600 DK) and the Cardinals ($3200 DK) will need to produce more on defense than the first time around if they are to provide utility to their DFS investors.