With the season winding down, I went to Reddit to find out what Guillotine League players have on their minds and how they are approaching the final weeks of the season. Inevitably, there are a lot of start/sit questions, along with strategy discussion and heroic tales of survival.
King Henry owners, how we feeling going into the final three weeks?
Sunday was supposed to be a get right game for our king! Coming off the bye week and facing the Giants should have meant a big game. Six points sucks.
Henry hasn't had a 15+ point game since Week 9. He's RB19 since Week 10. He still getting his 12 - 15 carries. His YPC is respectable. He has no PPR value and the Ravens don't find themselves inside the 5 yard line too much for goal line work. And the Steelers shut down Henry in week 10.
My RB room is solid. I can get production elsewhere. Henry is scoring more like a Flex starter, and I think I have better options at WR.
A month ago, I couldn't imagine benching Derrick Henry in any format, but here we are. He's still a must start for most leagues with 10 or more teams, but we're talking about Guillotine Leagues, where you are probably down to the final three teams, and everyone has a stacked roster. Most experts still have him ranked as a top 10 running back this week, but I understand if he slips outside your top 12 and ends up on your bench in a Guillotine League. The Steelers present a tough matchup for him, which will probably limit him to about 70 yards. If you do start him, you're relying on him to come away with a touchdown or two.
Pick 3 RBs
3 teams left, PPR. Please help me pick 3 RBs (one is my flex): Saquon, Gibbs, Chase Brown, Conner, Bucky.
Saquon Barkley and Jahmyr Gibbs are the easy picks. Both are must start options regardless of matchup, and they sit atop Jeff Erickson's Week 16 Value Meter.
Bucky Irving has been fantastic, but he's in a 50/50 split with Rachaad White, and he's just one week removed from missing most of Week 14 with a back injury, making him a risky choice with so many other great options available.
Like Irving, Chase Brown has been a league-winner for fantasy managers this season, but in this situation he's not the best option. For all that Cleveland does wrong, they've been solid in limiting fantasy running back production. Brown ran for just 44 yards on 15 carries in his first meeting with the Browns.
James Conner gets the nod here against Carolina. The Panthers are the most favorable opponent for fantasy backs, and Conner has been incredibly productive both as a runner and receiver this season, particularly the past two weeks.
Screw the Thursday games?
Every week I hesitate to start a player on a Thursday game but I always tell myself "he's one of your best players you gotta" and then I get burned. Especially this year. Should I just give up on Thursday games forever? (This is a Sutton post)
For every dud like last week's game, there's a fantasy-friendly game like the Week 10 Thursday night shootout between the Bengals and Ravens. If you had a Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase pairing then you probably headed into Sunday's games with a 100-point headstart on the competition. Even Kirk Cousins managed to pull off a 500-yard, 4 TD game on Thursday night in Week 5. "You've gotta start your best players." You can confidently start Courtland Sutton tonight.
In final four I had Kupp and Tyreek combine for 5 points, still survived! On to final 3. Let's hear your heroic survival stories.
I don't have a Guillotine League-specific survival story, but I did have a fantasy playoff game come down to the wire in Week 15 because of Kupp's goose egg. This particular league scores 2 points per reception, so I've grown accustomed to Cooper Kupp providing 20 or 30 points regularly, making a zero-catch performance particularly brutal. Ultimately, I headed into Monday with a very small lead and Aaron Jones yet to play, while my opponent had Justin Jefferson remaining. When JJ caught an early TD, I thought my season was over, but Jones came through with a TD of his own. I escaped with a 171.1 to 169.86 victory.
Pick 2 WRs
Final 3 of an 18 team league. I have Lamb, AJB, McLaurin. Which 2 to start? Or would you grab any other names on waiver wire over those 3 including BTJ, Adams, Wilson, Kupp, Hill...
This is the part of the Guillotine League season that I hate - when there is so much talent available that you're nearly guaranteed to make the "wrong" decision. But it's all about surviving and advancing, and I think that CeeDee Lamb and Davante Adams give the best chance to do that. Expect double-digit targets for both of them, which provides a high floor and big upside.
I think I have to take a swing with Tyreek this week fellas
Wish me luck. Other teams are absolutely (obviously) stacked and I need to take some big swings. I'm definitely the underdog against the other 2 based on projections and don't have nearly as good of receivers. With Waddle possibly out I think Hill may have a case for a decent game. Thoughts?
Hill hasn't been the top 5 overall fantasy pick that you hoped he would be when you drafted him, but he still lands among the top 15 wide receiver rankings for me this week. For most, that makes him a fringe starter in Guillotine Leagues at this point in the season. He got shut down by a very good corner in Derek Stingley on the road last week. It happens. The Dolphins are back in Miami, where Tyreek had 10 catches for 115 yards and a TD the previous week. With that upside in mind, he's definitely worth starting in your situation.
You Can Still Join a Guillotine League!
You can start leagues any week of the season for as long as you want.
Here's how it works:
1. Set up and draft your team just like traditional fantasy football
2. Each week the lowest scoring team gets eliminated
3. All of the players from the eliminated team become free agents
4. A weekly FAAB bidding war starts among the remaining teams
5. Survive the chop and be crowned champion
Public and Private Leagues are open at GuillotineLeagues.com with prize pools as high as $250. Check out the contest lobby and join a league today!
