Game Spotlight: Good Chalk in Pittsburgh

Sunday

Pittsburgh (7-5-1) vs. New England (9-4), 4:25

Open: 52 O/U, NE -2.5
Live: 54 O/U, NE -2.5

Because Nothing Can Be Simple we have here a matchup that would at a glance be an obvious powderkeg of fantasy potential, but Ben Roethlisberger's nagging rib ailment threatens to complicate the script to some extent. To be clear, Roethlisberger is absolutely going to play and there are no indications that there is any particular concern over his ability to play. Plus, the guy has an obnoxiously long history of playing hurt, and playing very well in many of those cases. He's also at home, which is a huge reassurance. With the Steelers making a desperate push for playoff viability, the urgency is also a plus. But Roethlisberger looked goofy on a number of throws even back during the Denver game in Week 12, and last week he missed 19 snaps with Josh Dobbs playing in his place.

Because of the venue and the stakes of this matchup, I think we have to err on the side of optimism with Roethlisberger and thus everyone who would otherwise be in play for the slate. I know it's a corny hack thing to lean on reductive narratives, but Roethlisberger is nothing if not an ego-driven competitor, and the same is of course true of the opposing quarterback also. Consciously or not, these guys seem to find the ability to dig deeper in settings like this.

If Roethlisberger is even vaguely himself, then Antonio Brown and Juju Smith-Schuster both go straight to the top of the wideout rankings on the slate. I don't mean to specifically say that both Brown and JSS should rank ahead of Michael Thomas and Adam Thielen, but I also don't think there's a strong argument against it. These are two clearly elite receivers, and their projections get a boost from not just Roethlisberger's home splits, but the fact that this game is uniquely suited to provide shootout upside on this slate. It's one thing to adhere to projections, where Thomas and Thielen often rank top-three by default, and another to acknowledge that we're in the business of anticipating outliers, and I think a setting like this is one where things can bet uncommonly explosive. Brown and JSS are both so good and their utilization so varied that I see no reason to find concern with a matchup like Stephon Gilmore. The Steelers are always ambitious with their scheming to free up Brown and JSS, so this game will be no exception. It's been a quiet month or two for Vance McDonald, but he's done a great job this year on a per-target basis, and and Jesse James has only 16 targets in the last seven weeks after seeing 21 targets in the first six. I think you have to love McDonald this week, especially in tournaments. Another James Conner absence would help the upside of Brown, JSS, and McDonald that much more.

Conner (ankle) is listed as questionable after logging a limited practice Friday, but it still seems like a long shot for him to suit up, especially if the diagnosis in question is a high ankle sprain. High ankle sprains are almost automatic three-week absences, very often turning into four weeks. Even if Conner is ahead of schedule, a high ankle sprain basically precludes even the remotest chance of playing. If it's not a high ankle sprain then he would perhaps have a decent shot to play. Even if he does play, though, it would likely just screw things up for Jaylen Samuels rather than provide real fantasy opportunity for Conner, who almost certainly would be far below 100 percent health.

If Conner is out, I think you have to like Samuels again, especially on DraftKings' PPR scoring. Samuels simply isn't polished as a runner out of the backfield, because most of his experience in the role was running goal-line carries and other novel circumstances at North Carolina State, but he's already an elite pass-catching threat out of the backfield, and he can absolutely line up wide too, which he very well might need to do if this turns into an uptempo game with Conner and Ryan Switzer (ankle) likely limited at best. Samuels' seven catches for 64 yards from last week might seem like his ceiling as a receiver, but it simply isn't true. Stevan Ridley has the revenge game narrative going for him, but I'm not willing to bet money on him doing anything in particular.

The Patriots of course present a wealth of fantasy possibilities in their own right, both because of their own talent on offense and the likelihood that their defense is just bad enough to invite a shootout scenario. Tom Brady diced up the Dolphins last week, and so long as he manages the potent Pittsburgh pass rush he should find favorable matchups for his route runners. This Steelers defense is their best in years, but it's important to note that Brady has incinerated these guys over his career, throwing 25 touchdowns to four interceptions in 10 regular season games. The Steelers defense has been the same scheme for like 40 years now.

Joe Haden is the only vaguely intimidating Pittsburgh corner, and I would absolutely give Josh Gordon the advantage all the same. Haden's Pittsburgh renaissance has certainly been something to behold, but there's only so much a sub-6-foot corner with middling speed can do against Gordon if he gets left in downfield single coverage. The Steelers are good at helping their corners, but Gordon poses a vertical stress in one part of the field that forces the defense to move its safeties and linebackers such that you're going to leave some eventual vulnerability elsewhere, and between the alternate seam threat posed by Rob Gronkowski and the constant slot menace posed by Julian Edelman, I think there's reason for optimism for all involved. It's unlikely that all three smash value for their DFS investors, but it seems like at least one of the three has to put up big numbers so long as Brady plays to his standards. Chris Hogan is the fourth target, but he's been reduced to little more than an ornamental slot receiver these days. Gronk has been Brady's greatest weapon against the Steelers, totaling 664 yards and eight touchdowns on 49 targets in six games.

Sony Michel disappointed in what should have been a blowup spot against the Dolphins last week, but for whatever it's worth he should once again function as the clear lead runner for the Patriots. Whether that amounts to much against a Steelers run defense allowing 3.9 yards per carry to running backs is a different matter, and one it's tough to feel great about following the Dolphins disappointment. The Steelers sell out against the run with their ILB personnel, where Jon Bostic and Vince Williams are major liabilities in space. It takes creative zone coverages and blitz assignments to hide those two, but I'm not sure the Steelers can succeed in that task against the Patriots specifically. James White is a unique pass-catching threat in his own right, and the Patriots do a great job of setting him up. Against a blitz-obsessed defense with an explosive pass rush, it would seem that the Bat Signal is in the sky for White as the Patriots look to deter the blitz. The floor is lower these days with both Michel and Rex Burkhead at 100 percent, but this seems like an appropriate environment for an upward spike in White's usage.

Indianapolis (7-6) vs. Dallas (8-5), 1:00

Open: 47 O/U, IND -3
Live: 47.5 O/U, IND -3

The Colts have been an odd team to witness this year, their nature and methods changing drastically from some weeks to others, with a consistent theme of overachievement otherwise. Dallas was pretty much a mess for most of the year, but since the Amari Cooper trade they're 5-1 with both the offense and defense showing substantial promise at various points. The teams meet in this setting where Dallas is in pursuit of improved playoff seeding while the Colts are in an urgent fight for a playoff berth at all. Both teams should be motivated to play. Although they're in different conferences, the Colts might have more insight on the Cowboys than vice versa. Head coach Frank Reich has seen plenty of the NFC East after serving as the offensive coordinator in Philadelphia the two prior years. Defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus coached Dallas' linebackers in the six years prior to this.

Andrew Luck has been beyond belief at home this year, averaging over 300 yards per game while throwing 19 touchdowns to four interceptions, his home quarterback rating some 30 points higher than on the road. He's always been better in the Indianapolis dome than anywhere else, but normally the divide is more to the tune of 10 points. I'm inclined to read his 2018 home production as somewhat unsustainable then, if only because nearly perfect play tends to be unsustainable generally. The Colts have a history this year of having players active on Sunday even after missing Friday practice with injury, but in the case of T.Y. Hilton it's tough to tell if such optimism should apply – Hilton hasn't practiced all week with his ankle issue, whereas in past instances of Friday inactivity the Colts had the player in question practice in at least a limited capacity in the prior days. If Hilton is active, he's to be feared. For his career he averages 9.6 yards per target at home, and that sample includes a good number of games with Scott Tolzien and Jacoby Brissett at quarterback instead of Luck. Regardless of whether Hilton is able to give it a go, the other leading pass-catching threat would of course be Eric Ebron, whose frequent presence in the slot gives him more playmaking chances than most tight ends. If Hilton is out, Ebron's projection probably gets a boost.

If not Hilton or Ebron, taking on the Indianapolis pass catchers gets tricky. Tight end Mo Alie-Cox is back from injury, but he's more of a blocker. Wideout Ryan Grant primarily plays outside, where he's completely ill-suited to the task, and slot wideout Chester Rogers has seen his prominence fade in the past month for some reason. Dontrelle Inman and Zach Pascal play both inside and out, but they appear to be cannibalizing each other over the same meager role. There's no evidence that any of those four receivers are any good on their own account, either. Someone will do something, especially if Hilton is out, but it's a risky wager with perhaps muted upside in even the best-case outcomes.

It's a tough matchup for Marlon Mack against a Dallas defense allowing only 3.7 yards per carry to running backs, but I like Mack as a tournament play, betting on the game script over the matchup. The previously mentioned intel advantage for Reich and Eberflus plus the greater urgency and homefield advantage for the Colts makes me prefer them in the game, even with the anxieties that come with Hilton's situation. If I think the Colts will win even if Hilton doesn't provide his customary production, then I force myself to like players like Ebron and Mack by that logic. In Mack's case we have a pretty good running back on a homefield favorite that at multiple points has shown a willingness to feed him as a workhorse this year. His pass-catching production has been a major disappointment, but I like the chances of that spiking upward in a novel context like this one. Jordan Wilkins hasn't seen meaningful snaps in about two months, so I think you can justify Nyheim Hines as a tournament play also, especially on DraftKings, because he'll be the team's only source of speed if Hilton is out or can't contribute to his normal standards.

I often talk about how Saquon Barkley's skills and usage basically make him something other than a running back, and more importantly a player for whom matchups really just don't matter much, but Ezekiel Elliott could very well be in the same category. With 40 touches last week you almost worry about overwork, but Elliott was born to play running back and not only has the build to take punishment, but he's just one of those guys who naturally, instinctively does an incredible job of managing contact. He dives into piles constantly but never seems to end up in harm's way. The Colts have defended the run well this year, but they've notably funneled a league-leading 116 targets to running backs, and Elliott has been a major factor in that regard lately.

The Colts pass defense is generally worse than its run defense, and with questionable personnel the scheme relies on zones to mitigate big-play risk. I'm not sure how well that approach is suited to stopping a player like Cooper, whose skill as a route runner likely entails some understanding of how to manipulate and exploit coverage schemes. With Cooper's usage and talent he's a top wideout play almost regardless of opponents these days, but so long as Dallas calls something other than a slant occasionally then this should be a totally good matchup for Cooper also. Michael Gallup hasn't put it all together yet, but the promising rookie has gotten open deep repeatedly lately, and eventually Dak Prescott is going to stop missing that throw. Particularly if Hilton is active and starting on the other side, Gallup could present real tournament value if the game goes into its more high-scoring scenarios. If Gallup ascends then it's probably at the expense of Cole Beasley, and there's only so much room for the slot specialist in an offense that doesn't aspire to throw much. The Colts have struggled to defend tight ends this year, so I think you can justify Blake Jarwin in tournaments, but mostly just on DraftKings. Jarwin has been a highly reliable safety valve for Prescott lately, catching his last 13 targets for 124 yards, but it's hard to imagine him providing touchdown upside with just one red-zone look among his 18 targets this year.

Cincinnati (5-8) vs. Oakland (3-10), 1:00

Open: 46.5 O/U, CIN -3.5
Live: 46 O/U, CIN -3

This live recital of dueling errors might contain more fantasy value and perhaps even entertainment value than standards we've come to expect of these two failure factories. When you have two defenses this bad, even offenses run by Derek Carr and Jeff Driskel stand a fighting chance of putting up numbers. And pretty much everyone involved is cheap!

That includes Joe Mixon, who figures to be one of the chalkiest DFS picks at any position following his big game as a heavy road underdog against a comparably tough Chargers defense. Mixon's volume has been inexcusably erratic this year, but with 26 carries and five catches last week perhaps the Bengals are finally picking up on the fact. The Raiders are allowing just under five yards per carry and just over seven yards per target to running backs, so Mixon should have both a high floor and high ceiling. I'll have him in pretty much every lineup of mine. Gio Bernard is a good bet for about 25 snaps, but he's been a disaster since September.

With A.J. Green out the Bengals receivers are far less impressive, and with Driskel at quarterback the floor and ceiling are both lower for all involved. But Tyler Boyd has shown the ability to succeed despite Driskel, and in that case he projects just fine against a Raiders secondary allowing 8.5 yards per pass and 30 passing touchdowns in 13 games. I think Driskel is a totally good tournament punt in the matchup, because for as much as the Bengals might intend to hide him, the Bengals defense is bad enough to allow a shootout scenario, and if Driskel drops back enough times eventually he's going to start running, and he might even be able to throw on a defense this bad, anyway. If Driskel throws 30 passes and runs six times, there's a good chance he smashes value at his prices. The Bengals don't want to entertain that scenario, but there might be only so much they can control. If Driskel has a good game then it opens up a chance for John Ross to provide standout tournament value as well. He's played 60 or more snaps in three straight games, and with speed like his a big play can happen even in unconventional ways. It's not a fluke that he has six touchdowns on 18 catches. Even C.J. Uzomah is back on the GPP radar in this context.

Like Driskel, Carr is a good-looking tournament punt at quarterback, simply because his defense is bad and he's playing against one that's similarly bad. If the defenses fail faster than the offenses, Carr would absolutely project well against a Bengals defense allowing the most fantasy points to quarterbacks, though to be fair much of that damage they've allowed on the ground, where Carr doesn't do anything even though he totally could (4.69-second 40-yard dash).

We might as well categorize Jared Cook as Carr's WR1, and against the Bengals Cook is capable of a big game even if Carr produces below expectations. The Bengals defense is bad all over, but it's especially bad in the middle of the field, and for the year they've allowed over eight yards per target to tight ends at a completion rate of 76.7. After Cook, Jordy Nelson is probably your best bet for production, yet there's nothing to be taken for granted. Although he has 18 targets in his last two weeks, he saw just 16 in the six games prior. It's reasonable to err on the side of optimism here, because Nelson still seems pretty good and it seems like his production is mostly dependent on the cooperation of Carr, who a defense like Cincinnati's just might be able to accommodate. Marcell Ateman figures to run the second-most snaps at receiver, but slot wideout Seth Roberts might see more targets all the same. Since his 10-target, 16-yard game against Baltimore in Week 12, Ateman has caught five passes for 61 yards and a touchdown on eight targets in two games. Roberts has 13 targets in those two games.

Part of why the target volume is so unstable for the Raiders receivers is the pass-catching threat posed by Jalen Richard, who probably remains underutilized despite his breakout season. Richard's function is often the result of necessity, ie, the Raiders falling behind and needing to play catch-up, but against the Bengals he's an obvious plus matchup from the start. They'd be foolish to not attack the Bengals with Richard in the passing game, as the Bengals have allowed a 79.3 completion rate to running backs at 7.8 yards per target. That's ridiculous, and it presents an easy bull's eye for the Raiders if they want to take it. Richard's 68 targets on the year yielded 57 receptions for 483 yards (7.1 YPR), an exceptional rate at a catch percentage of 83.8.

Even if Richard has a big game, though, he can do so at the expense of Oakland's receivers rather than Doug Martin specifically. So if the game stays close as the spread expects, Martin would also carry perhaps his best projection of the season against a Bengals defense allowing 5.0 yards per carry to opposing running backs. I can't imagine how Martin isn't a great tournament play in a setting where his usage might spike in the best matchup possible.