Fantasy Football Impact: NFL Draft's First Round Winners & Losers

This article is part of our NFL Draft series.

NFL Draft Recap: First Round Fantasy Football Impact

The first round is officially in the books, and while it may not have been as wild for the fantasy community as last year's, there's still a ton to unpack. We had two quarterbacks, two running backs, four* receivers, and two tight ends selected Thursday night. Now it's time to sort it all out and see what it means for our fantasy teams this year and beyond.

In this article, I aim to give a snapshot of the player himself, his fit within his team context, and his value for redraft and dynasty. 

Quarterback

Cam Ward, 1st Overall, Tennessee Titans

This one has been settled for a while. Ward even went so far as to shout out Treylon Burks as one of the best receivers in the league when he was streaming a week before the draft. That's a tell if I've ever seen one.

Ward had a unique path to becoming the first overall pick. He started out at Incarnate Word at the FCS level and did well enough to move up to Washington State, where he starred for two seasons. Miami lured him in the transfer portal for his last season, and Ward turned in a Heisman-caliber season with 4,313 passing yards on a 9.5 YPA and 67.2 percent completion rate to go with 43 total touchdowns (39 passing, four rushing). 

Ward's strengths center on his effortless arm strength and quick release. That's a nice pairing of traits when clean pockets and platforms are few and far between in Tennessee right now. He has the athleticism to extend plays while keeping his eyes downfield. It's similar to that of Caleb Williams, but like Williams, he'll need to rein it in a bit and stay within himself because we've see what happens when a young quarterback behind a shaky line tries to do too much. 

I wouldn't bank on huge rushing production from Ward, though the passing volume should keep him fantasy viable as the Titans will likely be playing from behind a good bit this year. The weapons around him aren't exciting as it stands, though it wouldn't be surprising to see Tennessee get him some help in the next two days.

Ward's ADP on Underdog before the draft was 151.4. Because he was expected to go to the Titans anyway, I don't see much movement coming in redraft. That ADP is good for QB24, and a low-end QB2 sounds about right. I wouldn't take him ahead of Matthew Stafford but I'd be comfortable mixing in some Ward shares instead of Sam Darnold and Anthony Richardson, and maybe Geno Smith.

Ward will be drafted high in Superflex Dynasty rookie drafts, but again, we've known that for a while at this point.

Jaxson Dart, 25th Overall, New York Giants

It grew increasingly clear that if another quarterback was going to be taken Thursday night, it'd have to be via a team trading back into the first round, and that's exactly what the Giants did in trading with the Texans.

Dart's an intriguing prospect whose draft stock was likely helped by the sheer lack of other viable quarterback prospects in this class. There's a reason 23 picks went off the board between quarterbacks in an era where quarterback thirst reigns supreme in the first round. 

Dart's well-seasoned with three years of starting experience at an SEC program to his credit. He improved year-over-year, improving his accuracy and limiting his mistakes. It'll be a transition for him to come from Lane Kiffin's system that so effortlessly gets production from its quarterback, but luckily, he won't be rushed with the Giants signing Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston this offseason.

 Tools-wise, Dart has a good-not-great arm and a willingness to attack deep. He's sturdy at 6-foot-2 and 223 pounds and can move with nearly 800 rushing yards in his last two years at Ole Miss. As someone who watched a lot of Dart in college, I was always impressed by his toughness as well. He's willing to stand in there and take a shot, and he doesn't shy from contact when he gets running downfield.

Dart was going as a late...dart flyer on Underdog before the draft (204.4). With Underdog drafts going to 18 rounds instead of 20, it's hard to justify getting much exposure to him with two vets standing in his way. 

You have to like what this means for his dynasty stock, though. The Giants made a big play to go up and get him, and Brian Daboll can get the most out of his quarterbacks. You know, provided that he has a legitimate NFL talent to work with. 

I think Dart has the tools you can dream on and is in an environment where, by next year, he could start making waves.

Running Back

Ashton Jeanty, 6th Overall, Las Vegas Raiders

Even as a massive Jeanty fan, I dreaded the idea of him ending up on the Raiders. In a vacuum, I think the Raiders got the best player available and don't fault them for taking Jeanty. 

But we fantasy players are greedy. 

If we're drafting a rookie running back, we want a good team context so he can maximize his production. The Raiders don't exactly fit that description, plus the schedule is also a concern with three likely playoff teams in their own division for the foreseeable future.

Even still, Jeanty on the Raiders shouldn't hurt his draft stock much, if at all. With what he did in college, peeling off 7.0 YPC last season on 374 carries, the Raiders should heap as many carries on Jeanty as possible. There's no one on the roster standing in the way, and new coach Pete Carroll probably wants to turn the page from last year when the Raiders had the worst rushing attack in the league by almost every metric.

Jeanty is a rare talent at RB, and even if the offensive line isn't opening huge holes for him like we see with Philadelphia, the volume projection makes him a safe pick at current ADP (11.2). He can make something out of nothing. Look at the Penn State game. Boise State was totally outmatched and Penn State knew all it had to do was slow down Jeanty. He still churned out 100 yards. We might see some Raiders games like that this year.

There's the possibility that the new coaching staff gets the run game scheme in gear, too, which will give him Top 5 RB upside.

Of course, you're already paying for Top 5 production when you take Jeanty. He was solidly going in the late first round of drafts going into Thursday, and I doubt that changes much. 

It's not an apples-to-apples comparison, but Marvin Harrison posed a similar conundrum for drafters last year. It didn't pan out, obviously. I'm still optimistic that Jeanty, even if he doesn't hit his ceiling, can be a top 10 fantasy running back this year. If that's his floor, he's justifiable in the late first round.

Omarion Hampton, 22nd Overall, Los Angeles Chargers

Hampton was absolutely on the first-round radar. Mapping it out, though, the Chargers didn't clock as a team that was going to be in that market after signing Najee Harris this offseason. Still, they have to replace nearly 300 carries from last year, and Harris is on a one-year deal, so getting the best player available at 22 makes sense on its own.

Hampton is a nice fit in LA. At 5-foot-11 and 221 pounds with 4.46 speed, Hampton has a nice combo of size and speed. He was a workhorse at UNC with two seasons of at least 250 carries. He's not a great pass-catcher but improved in that regard over his three years in college and had good numbers in 2024 with 38 catches for 373 yards and two scores on 44 targets. 

It's funny how, when stacked up to Harris, Hampton profiles as the speedy pass-catching back in this offense. 

I can already see the angst from drafters trying to figure out how to value Hampton this year. Harris has taken at least 255 carries each year and has never missed a game. He's starting from square one in this offense, just like Hampton is, though. 

I expect Hampton's redraft/best ball ADP to dip a bit due to the landing spot. He was drafted as RB13 going into Thursday, sandwiched between James Cook and Chuba Hubbard. I'd probably bump Hubbard ahead of him for now, but I'd still take a shot on Hampton over Joe Mixon or Kenneth Walker.

In terms of dynasty, I'm still very in on Hampton. Harris is a one-year problem, and it's not necessarily a bad thing that there's someone to spell Hampton during his rookie season while he learns the ropes. 

Wide Receiver

Travis Hunter, 2nd Overall, Jacksonville Jaguars

Whew. This is like the Shohei Ohtani problem fantasy baseball folks had to sift through a few years back, only taken to an extreme degree. In Ohtani's case, you could still benefit from him pitching every turn in the rotation if you managed your lineup properly. With Hunter, every snap he plays on defense only takes away from his fantasy upside at receiver.

We simply don't know how Jacksonville will end up deploying him. Anything they say from now until August is pretty much non-binding. They can placate us all they want and keep kicking the can down the road, saying they plan to use him as much as possible on both sides of the ball. What happens when rubber meets the road?

Hunter is legitimately incredible at both receiver and corner. He won the Biletnikoff Award this year, which is given to the best receiver in the country. He also had 16 pass breakups and four picks. I mean, WTF.

As for his best ball prospects, Hunter had been routinely going in the early ninth round going into the draft. Right or wrong, that window is probably closed. You're looking at an early sixth-round ADP now. That's the WR3 or WR4 on your team. 

You're taking on risk at that ADP, but you also know that. You're taking him for the upside scenario. You're taking him for the spike weeks that few other receivers can match. You're willing to live with the dud weeks in between. 

I really don't know how to call it for dynasty purposes. We're going to see his market shift more than any other player over the next few months, and we have to be willing to ride the wave. It's probably not wise to be overweight on your Hunter exposure, but I'd be queasy about fading a talent like his with Trevor Lawrence as his quarterback, too.

Tetairoa McMillan, 8th Overall, Carolina Panthers

McMillan drew the short straw this draft cycle in that he was that prospect who was put under the microscope and drug through the mud as analysts tried to find ways to poke holes in his profile. We see it every year. A guy gets anointed as the top player at his position only to have people get bored and try to "well, actually" him during a time when no actual football games are being played.

Ultimately, McMillan still ended up going top 10. He's the pre-eminent boundary wideout in this class with great hands and contested catch ability. McMillan makes the most of his 6-foot-4 frame to win 50/50 balls and can run a little bit after the catch, too. His 4.53* pro day 40 likely means he's closer to a 4.6 guy. That checks out in that the big knock on McMillan is his lack of separation ability. It's good that he made all those contested catches,  but being overly reliant on those can be a bad sign. It suggests that if he's not separating from college DBs, it won't get much better on Sundays. And he won't be able to win those 50/50 balls at the same rate in the NFL. 

Tee Higgins and Drake London are the more optimistic comps for McMillan, and I can see him reaching that level. I think his floor is something like a Kenny Golladay, which would be a disappointment for the eighth overall pick but still not a bad player.

Even if you're not fully sold on Bryce Young, you have to be encouraged by how he finished last season. You can get excited about McMillan's impact in a way that you really couldn't when the Panthers took Xavier Legette this time a year ago.

There are boundary reps ready for the taking for McMillan, and if he supplants David Moore as expected, he should be working in a part of the field that Young accesses well.

McMillan was a late fourth-rounder on Underdog at one time, but the negative press dragged him down by about a full round. He's much more palatable there, and the 5th round receivers all have their warts for one reason or another (Rashee Rice, Chris Olave, Jordan Addison, Chris Godwin, Jaylen Waddle, Deebo Samuel).

If you're optimistic about Bryce Young, you have to be excited about McMillan in redraft and in dynasty. I can't say I'll be targeting him in every draft, but him being on the Panthers is not the dead weight dragging down his upside that it would have been perceived to be a year ago.

Emeka Egbuka, 19th Overall, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a curveball. The Bucs were already kind of set at receiver going into last year's draft and managed to hit a home run on Jalen McMillan in the third round. He ended up being a godsend when Chris Godwin was lost for the season and the Bucs had to adjust on the fly.

Now we introduce Egbuka to the equation. He's a polished, slot-first guy who comes from the wide receiver factory that Brian Hartline has built at Ohio State. Egbuka caught 70.2 percent of his passes at nearly 10 yards per target over his last three years in Columbus. That's terrific efficiency. He's not a gamebreaker per se but he's solid across the board.

It was already tricky to get a handle on the Buccaneers' pass-catchers when it was Godwin, McMillan and Mike Evans. A first-round slot makes this an even bigger headache. 

Godwin owns the slot reps in Tampa and is back on a lucrative multi-year deal. Evans isn't really slowing down and plays an entirely different role than what would be asked of Egbuka. Perhaps this hurts McMillan the most, but he was mostly used on the outside opposite Evans. Again, that's not Egbuka's territory.

Egbuka was settling in as a mid-seventh-round option in best ball prior to the draft. With so many established mouths to feed in Tampa Bay, I expect him to slide a bit. I can already see the flags being planted on either side of the Egbuka vs McMillan debate if their ADPs settle within the same round. 

It's going to be hard to feel great about either McMillan or Egbuka in redraft until we have more information. I don't view Egbuka as having the high week-to-week upside to be overly invested in him in best ball, especially in half-PPR scoring. Full PPR is a slightly different story, but not enough to make Egbuka one of "my guys" this year.

Dynasty-wise, Egbuka is like a high-yield savings account. 

Matthew Golden, 23rd Overall, Green Bay Packers

Golden was one of the bigger risers through the pre-draft process, and at one point, the odds had him neck-and-neck with Tet McMillan to be the first receiver drafted.

Golden started out as a huge get for Houston as a four-star recruit. After two good years there, he leveled up and transferred to Texas, where he was a huge part of their offense. He led the 'Horns in target share (16.1%), yards (987) and touchdowns (9) despite coming into the year having to compete with established guys like Isaiah Bond and Johntay Cook.

Things really took off for him at the combine, where he put on a show with a position-best 4.29 in the 40. The athleticism put him on the first-round radar, though in hindsight, it makes sense that he was picked behind some more productive wideouts in this class.

I'm a Golden fan. I always liked his game going back to his true freshman season at Houston when he was producing opposite Tank Dell. I can't deny there's a wide range of outcomes for him at the next level, though, and going to a crowded spot like Green Bay doesn't give us much clarity.

Picking Packers receivers was already my kryptonite last year in that I was in on Jordan Love but didn't know how to stack him properly. Turns out, the correct answer was fading that group and just drafting a lot of Josh Jacobs.

We can expect Jayden Reed to be the top dog in this offense, and we can expect Christian Watson to miss most of the season. Dontayvion Wicks' 5.5 YPT figure means his reps need to be scaled back dramatically. Romeo Doubs is still in the mix, of course, but it speaks volumes that the Packers spent a first-round pick on a receiver for the first time since Javon Walker in 2002.

It's easy to see Golden sliding into Watson's role thanks to his blazing speed. That's not a role that gets a ton of volume in this offense, though it's one where Golden can do some serious damage when those punches land. 

There are enough positive indicators to like Golden at his ADP (78.3). He has spike week potential and I think that the market has cooled enough on the Packers' passing game in general to where there's profit potential if Love can round back into form like we saw in late 2023. I hate to be a draft capital absolutist, but Golden being a first-rounder in Green Bay does mean something, too. 

Tight End

Colston Loveland, 10th Overall, Chicago Bears

This was a bit of a surprise. Not so much that the Bears took a tight end at 10, but that it was Loveland and not Warren. 

If you compare the two's production, it's not really close, even in Loveland's best year. That's due to the nature of Michigan's offense, which was as ground-and-pound as it gets. The passing game was non-existent this past year after J.J. McCarthy left, too, so there wasn't much Loveland could do. Loveland is best understood through watching the film. 

He's a smooth athlete who can make plays up the seam, whether it's from an in-line look or in the slot. We didn't get testing data on him due to a shoulder injury; however, his frame (6-6, 248) is similar to guys like Coby Fleener, Mike Gesicki, Darren Waller and Kyle Pitts. He's not a Pitts-level athlete, but there's reason to believe he's above average in that regard. 

Going to Chicago means Loveland is the third target at best in this offense in all likelihood. Yes, Ben Johnson got a ton out of Sam LaPorta right away. It's hard to apply that expectation to Loveland, though, especially with Caleb Williams still developing. The tight end role should still see an uptick in this offense, though. 

Cole Kmet is still there and is a solid player, but this is a Top 10 pick under a new coach. Loveland is going to get some run.

Loveland has been hovering around TE12, and his selection in the Top 10 should push him up into the David Njoku/Evan Engram zone in the 10th round. I like to do my tight end shopping in that range, extending all the way to Tucker Kraft (TE13) and Isaiah Likely (TE14). Loveland going to Chicago has its appeal this year. If the offense clicks with the new system and revamped line, we'll see plenty more scoring in Chicago, and Loveland will play a part in that.

Tyler Warren, 14th Overall, Indianapolis Colts

Warren's a rare case. It's not every year that a tight end reaches 1,000 yards receiving in college. Warren, who took some time to get that opportunity while playing behind Theo Johnson, got there this year with an unbelievable campaign.

Warren commanded an absurd 31 percent of Penn State's targets and converted those 137 chances into 104 catches of 1,233 yards and eight touchdowns. He even got some work in the run game and thrived there. The thing is, Penn State's over-reliance on Warren came through some avenues that won't be available on Sundays. Warren had tons of catches on screens to help juice that catch rate. He was really the only game in town when Penn State dropped back to pass.

Now he steps into a crowded situation with a lot of unknowns. On paper, Indy has a solid group of pass-catchers as it is with Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell. Warren is a slam dunk to start at tight end, of course, but this is a really hard passing game to project.

The combination of Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. The fact that there are so many other established options Warren has to compete with is also intimidating. The market will likely cool off of Warren as TE7 (ADP 101.2), but will it cool enough to make his new ADP palatable? I'm not so sure. 

Dynasty is a totally different discussion because you can play the long game and hope that Indianapolis gets its quarterback situation ironed out next year. This year, though? I'll have to wait and see where the new ADP lands before making a call. The early birds who drafted Warren at the height of his acquisition cost are likely having some buyer's remorse.