This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
I had a nice week hitting all three of the "Games" picks and Jamison Crowder found the end zone in the "Touchdowns" section. I will admit that every week hasn't gone this way but this should be used as an affirmation of wagers you're looking at. It also might bring up an opportunity to bet on something you weren't even looking for. Let's look at what is happening this week.
GAMES
Miami Dolphins +9.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - I'd feel better about this at 10 (the original line) but it's probably not going to make a difference. This pick is about my belief in Brian Flores as a head coach and Tampa has not been good against the pass this season (great against the run, again). It's not going out on a limb to say this but I feel like the Buccaneers win but Miami covers the spread.
New England Patriots/Houston Texans UNDER 39.5 - I'm not confident in either offense and it's possible either defense outscores their own team on the other side of the ball. The new Bill Belichick team loves to run the football while Davis Mills has struggled under center for the Texans. I'd also think about clicking the "Game Lines" section here and hitting up UNDER 28.5 for +360.
Los Angeles Chargers -2 vs. Cleveland Browns- This line was started at 1.5 and I have to think the Baker Mayfield injury report of a torn labrum has moved this a half-point. I think the Chargers are really good, losing their only game to the Cowboys and scoring at least 17 points in each of their first four games. Los Angeles has only given up 18.5 points per game on the defensive side of the ball which isn't bad considering the opponents they've faced.
PLAYER PROPS
Dak Prescott + Daniel Jones OVER 549.5 Passing Yards +125 - You have to go to the "Weekly Specials" section to find this one and I'll admit I'm a sucker for anything over +100 odds. Through four games (a small sample) Jones is actually averaging 29.5 passing yards per game than Prescott but if you add their per-game averages it totals 562.5. It's a divisional game so maybe it's ground out by the running backs but I think there's a better than a 50/50 chance this over hits.
Kirk Cousins OVER 284.5 Passing Yards - Cousins finally threw his first interception of the season last week but overall has been great both protecting the ball (nine touchdowns, one interception). He's thrown for over this mark two out of four games and getting the Lions at home is a good matchup.
Jonathan Taylor + Lamar Jackson OVER 1.5 Rushing Touchdowns +125 - Another gem in the "Weekly Specials" section that I think is worth considering for Week 5. Either one of these players could hit two touchdowns by themselves so combining them makes even more sense to take the over here. Taylor scored last week and finished the 2020 season with two touchdowns in three of his last five games. Lamar has already had a two-touchdown game this season (Kansas City) and scored a rushing touchdown in seven of his 17 games last season.
TOUCHDOWNS
Cordarrelle Patterson +115 - The Jets have been awful against the running back spot while Matt Ryan and the Falcons have utilized Patterson to the fullest extent. Patterson has scored in two of his five games this season. His production has grown every week - you include he can't run more once he hits the end zone - so I'll take this wager especially with the Jets on the road.
Allen Lazard +230 - Lazard has scored three touchdowns in each of his last two seasons and with an over/under of 51 there are some points to be scored in this game. If Marquez Valdes-Scantling was active I'd be a little more hesitant here but MVS is on injured reserve. I also like Robert Tonyan (+190) in this spot as well as either of them hitting makes money; it'll be gravy if both find the end zone.