This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.
With three weeks of football in the books, bye weeks will now thin out the options in the player pool, with the mighty New England Patriots and feisty Tennessee Titans the first teams to catch some rest. That obviously means no Tom Brady, Julian Edelman, Dion Lewis or Rob Gronkowski, leaving us without some of the DFS early-season darlings.
Not to worry, there are still 30 teams to choose from, and with a few big-name running backs hobbled by injuries, we may stumble into some stud options with minimum or near-minimum price tags.
Some of the injury situations remain unclear, so let's dig into those before getting to specific player recommendations…
For all of last week's heroics, Devonta Freeman ($5,200) isn't good enough to warrant a $5,200 price tag against the Texans, unless Tevin Coleman (ribs) misses another game. Sure, Freeman will probably handle at least half of the workload even if the rookie plays, but he's not going to run wild over the Texans the way he did against the Cowboys. With the cat out of the bag and the matchup much tougher, Freeman is only worth using if he's expected to truly dominate the snaps.
Bills running back LeSean McCoy (hamstring) and head coach Rex Ryan both acknowledged that it might make sense for the veteran running back to miss a game. If that happens, fifth-round rookie Karlos Williams ($3,400) will lead the Buffalo backfield in a home game against the Giants, making him the top option at any position for Week 4. I have no clue what happened to the Williams who looked awful at Florida State last season, as he's put up 186 yards and three touchdowns on the first 24 carries (7.8 YPC) of his NFL career. Even with the expectation of a sky-high usage rate, Williams would be too good to pass up in the event of a McCoy absence.
On a similar note, Marshawn Lynch (hamstring) looks shaky for Monday's game against the Seahawks, leaving undrafted rookie Thomas Rawls ($3,000) as the potential lead back against a mediocre Detroit defense. With Lynch barely playing in Week 3 against the Bears, Rawls rumbled for 104 yards on 16 carries, whereas 34-year-old Fred Jackson only recorded four touches (two receptions). Unfortunately, the Seahawks don't play until Monday, and it'll be a major surprise if Lynch is listed as anything besides 'questionable.' In the event Lynch plays, Lions passing-down back Theo Riddick ($3,000) makes for an acceptable Monday night substitute for Rawls. Of course, Lynch suited up last week and hardly got into the game. Yup, it's a tricky situation.
Jets running back Chris Ivory (knee) should be able to play, but if not, the unspectacular Bilal Powell ($3,700) will be a sneakily excellent option against the Dolphins, despite putting up a modest 14.5 DraftKings points in Ivory's absence last week. Powell dominated both the early-down and passing-down snaps in a loss to the Eagles, and as we saw with Devonta Freeman last week, opportunity is much more important than talent at the running back position.
I also expect DeMarco Murray (knee) to return, but if he doesn't, Ryan Mathews ($3,800) and Darren Sproles ($4,500) will be solid plays for a second straight week. I'm still not sure whether I'd prefer Sproles or Mathews.
$4,800 is an excellent price for Eric Decker (knee), who missed last week's loss to the Eagles. If late-week reports suggest he'll suit up and take on his normal snap count, Decker will be a strong play in GPPs, with the injury likely to keep his ownership rate low.
Already strong options, both Randall Cobb ($7,400) and James Jones ($5,300) get a sizable boost if Davante Adams (knee) can't play in San Francisco.
This may be digging too deep, but if Sammy Watkins (calf) doesn't play against the Giants, Robert Woods ($3,100) would join tight end Charles Clay ($3,300) as a cheap option to pair with a massively underpriced quarterback Tyrod Taylor. Due to the respective prices on Taylor and Karlos Williams, this is the very rare case in which it won't be dumb to pair a quarterback (in a GPP lineup) with a carry-dependent running back from the same team. Normally, the QB-RB pairing would only make sense if the running back were expected to catch a bunch of passes (ie: Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, Shane Vereen, Danny Woodhead)
Now, let's get to the top plays for Week 4:
Quarterback
Andrew Luck, IND (vs. JAX), $7,800 – I mostly avoided Patriots players against the Jags in Week 3, figuring that the massive talent gap between the two teams would lead to an empty second half for the New England offense. I fully expect the Colts to win this week, but I don't think they're anywhere near New England's level, so Luck should actually stay active through at least the first few minutes of the final quarter. The Jacksonville defense may not be as bad as it looked last week, but it still isn't any good, and the secondary is banged up.
Tyrod Taylor, BUF (vs. NYG), $5800 – Taylor's price has been far too low every week this season, yet his ownership rate has remained quite reasonable, likely because there's no attractive Buffalo receiver to stack him with. I've been using tight end Charles Clay ($3,300) in some of my Taylor lineups, but I think it's time to stop worrying about the pairings and just accept that $5,800 is too good of a bargain to pass on. Taylor is the only quarterback worth using in a GPP lineup without one of his receivers, though others might make an argument for Russell Wilson. He's also the only quarterback that can reasonably be projected for 3.5 DraftKings points per $1,000 of salary.
Other options:Aaron Rodgers, GB (at SF), $7,900; Russell Wilson, SEA (vs. DET), $7,100; Carson Palmer, ARI (vs. STL), $6,800; Philip Rivers, SD (vs. CLE), $6,100
Running Back
Jamaal Charles, KC (at CIN), $7,600 – This is one of the toughest matchups Charles will draw all season, but there's no reason to shy away as long as he's priced close to the other top running backs. His early-season schedule would be an absolute nightmare for any back besides himself and Le'Veon Bell, yet Charles is averaging 25.4 DraftKings points per game through three weeks. Truly matchup-proof, Charles and Bell are far ahead of the rest of the running back field, especially on PPR sites. The gap between the top two and everyone else is even wider than you think.
Latavius Murray, OAK (at CHI), $6,300 – Despite drawing a difficult schedule to start the season, Murray is averaging 19.2 DraftKings points on 20.3 touches per game. He's one of the few three-down workhorses in the league, and he shouldn't lack for carries (or running room) against the pitiful Chicago defense. Murray's ownership rate will be high, but he's still a more-than-worthy choice, with his combination of floor and ceiling matched only by the aforementioned superstars.
Other options:Matt Forte, CHI (vs. OAK), $7,100; Carlos Hyde, SF (vs. GB), $5,100; Lance Dunbar, DAL (at NO), $3,600; Duke Johnson, CLE (at SD), $3,100
Wide Receiver
Odell Beckham, NYG (at BUF), $9,100 – He may be a riskier choice than Julio Jones, but Beckham offers the same sky-high ceiling, and his ownership rate will be much lower. Though the Buffalo defense presents a tall challenge for any offense besides New England's, it also encourages opponents to go with a pass-heavy approach, which could lead to a massive day for Beckham, even if the Giants take a beating. With a slew of sub-$4,000 options potentially available at running back, it shouldn't be too hard to fit both Beckham and Jones into a lineup.
T.Y. Hilton, IND (vs. JAX), $6,700 – Hilton is my favorite wideout for Week 4, as his slow start has led to a price drop, just as he's back to full health for a home game against the Jaguars. There is some concern about a blowout, but Hilton should have a massive day if the Jags can just keep things reasonably close. Furthering Hilton's cause, Jacksonville has a bunch of injury concerns in the secondary, including top cornerback Davon House (foot).
Other options:Julio Jones, ATL (at HOU), $9,300; Emmanuel Sanders, DEN (vs. MIN), $7,700; Jordan Matthews, PHI (at WAS), $6,600; Amari Cooper, OAK (at CHI), $6,300; Michael Crabtree, OAK (at CHI), $4,600; Marvin Jones, CIN (vs. KC), $3,800
Tight End
Jordan Reed, WAS (vs. PHI), $4,500 – The tight end options look shaky this week, but Reed offers a nice combination of price and upside, without the expectation of a sky-high ownership rate that accompanies Greg Olsen, Jimmy Graham and Travis Kelce. Even if DeSean Jackson (hamstring) returns, Reed is the best bet to lead his team in targets against a fast-paced Philadelphia team that's averaging a league-high 71.7 defensive snaps per game. Reed's my fifth-favorite tight end for season-long leagues, behind only Rob Gronkowski and the three aforementioned players.
Other options:Travis Kelce, KC (at CIN), $5,300
Team Defense/Special Teams
Oakland Raiders (at CHI), $2,600 – With none of the team defenses sticking out as an especially strong play this week, I'll just be filling in the position based on what's left after I've finished everything else. The Raiders have a dreadful secondary and wouldn't normally be an option on the road (or even really at home), but Jimmy Clausen is even worse than the Oakland defensive backs, and the Raiders' defense is the cheapest unit that I consider usable. There's also stack potential here, with Latavius Murray looking like an excellent play against the terrible Chicago defense. How did the Bears get to be so mind-blowingly terrible?
Other options: Carolina Panthers (at TB), $3,300; Buffalo Bills (vs. NYG), $3,000; Atlanta Falcons (vs. HOU), $2,900; San Diego Chargers (vs. CLE), $2,800; Green Bay Packers (at SF), $2,700; Philadelphia Eagles (at WAS), $2,700
Thursday Night Game
As much as I prefer not to use players from Thursday games due to the expectation of higher-than-usual ownership rates, it may be hard to stay away this week, even with Ben Roethlisberger (knee) absent.
The Ravens have zero depth in their receiving corps, and the red-hot Steve Smith ($6,200) is still priced quite reasonably. And, if any other Raven were to actually step up, it would likely be dirt-cheap rookie tight end Maxx Williams ($2,500), who will be replacing Crockett Gillmore (calf) as Baltimore's top option at the position. Williams will probably finish second or third on the team in targets, as wide receivers Marlon Brown and Kamar Aiken are very consistent in their inability to get open. Don't be fooled by Pittsburgh's Week 4 showing in St. Louis – the Steelers' defense is still extremely unreliable.
On the other side, I have zero faith whatsoever in Mike Vick ($5,000), which makes it hard to justify Antonio Brown ($9,200) at his price. The play is Le'Veon Bell ($7,700), who should overcome his tough matchup via a massive quantity of touches, as the Steelers will presumably want to keep the game out of Vick's hands. I only expect Bell to run for about 4.0 yards per carry against the stout Baltimore run defense, but he should get plenty of totes and could push for double-digit targets.
