DraftKings NFL Week 11: Top Picks and Lineup Strategy

Sunday's Week 11 slate on DraftKings includes 11 games and features Seahawks-Rams as the marquee matchup between the NFL's two hottest teams. Sam Darnold to Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Matthew Stafford to Puka Nacua are the league's hottest connections, and it will be exciting to see them go head-to-head for NFC supremacy. Bengals-Steelers will also be a popular target as it features two bad defenses, cheap RBs projecting well and Ja'Marr Chase. 

In this breakdown, I've highlighted the top options for cash games and included some of my favorite ideas for GPPs. As usual, leverage and correlation are paramount to winning large-field tournaments and important to prioritize when building lineups. For cash games, play the best chalk and, when in doubt, follow ownership.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays.

• RB Chase Brown at PIT ($5,700)

Brown played 96 percent of snaps two weeks ago against the Bears and had eight catches for 75 yards. Backup Samaje Perine was out injured and hasn't practiced this week. Brown has at least 15 DraftKings points in three consecutive games and a great matchup against Pittsburgh, the defense that's allowed his only 100-yard rushing game when the teams met in Week 7. 

• RB Jaylen Warren vs. CIN ($6,100)

It doesn't get any better for a RB than a matchup against Cincinnati. The Bengals defense ranks last in yards and points allowed on a per-play basis, and they've conceded RB1 fantasy scores in five of nine weeks. They'll also be without their two best defensive linemen. Warren has emerged as the clear no. 1 back for the Steelers and has considerable touchdown equity in such a soft matchup. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Justin Herbert at JAX ($6,300)

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QB Brock Purdy at ARI ($5,800)

QB Aaron Rodgers vs. CIN ($5,400)

QB J.J. McCarthy vs. CHI ($5,200)

QB Jacoby Brissett vs. SF ($4,900)

QB Davis Mills at TEN ($4,500)

RB Christian McCaffrey at ARI ($9,000)

RB Bijan Robinson vs. CAR ($8,300)

RB Josh Jacobs at NYG ($7,800)

RB Jaylen Warren vs. CIN ($6,100)

RB Chase Brown at PIT ($5,700)

RB Aaron Jones vs. CHI ($5,500)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba at LAR ($8,900)

WR Puka Nacua vs. SEA ($8,700)

WR Ja'Marr Chase at PIT ($8,500)

WR Justin Jefferson vs. CHI ($7,500)

WR Nico Collins at TEN ($6,700)

WR Ladd McConkey at JAX ($6,500)

WR Wan'Dale Robinson vs. GB ($5,500)

WR Khalil Shakir vs. TB ($5,300)

WR Parker Washington vs. LAC ($5,100)

WR Romeo Doubs at NYG ($5,000)

WR Michael Wilson vs. SF ($3,800)

TE Trey McBride vs. SF ($6,300)

D/ST Houston Texans at TEN ($3,700)

D/ST Los Angeles Chargers at JAX ($2,800)

D/ST Tennessee Titans vs. HOU ($2,300)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Cincinnati Bengals (22) at Pittsburgh Steelers (27.5)

Bengals

Fresh off a bye with a matchup against one of the league's worst defenses, it doesn't get much better. These teams met in Week 7 and it finished 33-31; Joe Flacco ($5,500) threw for 342 yards and three TDs and Ja'Marr Chase ($8,500) had 161 of those yards on 16 targets. He's averaging double-digit catches over the last four games and is expected to be the most popular WR on the board. Chase Brown ($5,700) will be among the most popular RBs after he played 96 percent of snaps two weeks ago in the absence of Samaje Perine. Tee Higgins ($6,000) will be considerably less popular and can be rostered for leverage. He's coming off his best game of the season after seven catches, 121 yards and two TDs against the Bears. It was a slow start to the season but he now has five TDs in his last five. 

Steelers

Cincinnati without Trey Hendrickson and Shemar Stewart have the worst defense in the league. They rank last in yards and points allowed on a per play basis. It's a dream spot for Aaron Rodgers ($5,400) and the Pittsburgh offense. Jaylen Warren ($6,100) will be chalky, but other than that, none of the Steelers pass-catchers will garner much ownership. DK Metcalf ($5,700) and Calvin Austin ($4,000) have ceiling potential for affordable salaries at WR, and the same goes for Jonnu Smith ($2,900) and Pat Freiermuth ($3,200) at TE. They don't project that well because Rodgers normally spreads the ball around, but we're only looking for one big game and there couldn't be a better opportunity. 

• Favorite Bengals Stack: QB Flacco + RB Warren + WR Chase or WR Higgins
• Favorite Steelers Stack: QB Rodgers + WR Chase + WR Metcalf and/or TE Smith

Seattle Seahawks (22.75) at Los Angeles Rams (25.75)

Seahawks

Arguably the game of the season as it features the two hottest teams in football. Seattle's offense has been elite: on a per-play basis, they rank first in points and second in yards. Sam Darnold ($5,700) is a big reason why, playing so well that he's emerged as an MVP candidate. He and Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($8,900) have formed the most efficient duo in the league, with the star WR averaging an otherworldly 4.6 yards per route run. Priced above Nacua and Chase for the first time, he won't be quite as popular as he's been in recent weeks. Cooper Kupp ($4,100) is cheap enough to be considered for large-field GPPs in his return to Los Angeles. So are Elijah Arroyo ($2,600) and AJ Barner ($3,100) at TE for essentially the minimum salary. Smith-Njigba is the priority, however. 

Rams

The Rams offense has been pretty much unstoppable. The play fast, throw at one of the highest rates and their games average the third-most plays. Matthew Stafford ($6,600), behind a league-leading 25 TD passes to just two INTs, is among the frontrunners for MVP.  Puka Nacua ($8,700) is back to full health and, like Smith-Njigba, his ownership will stay in check with Chase expected to be the chalk. Davante Adams ($7,700), priced up and questionable to play, will be extremely low-owned and makes for a decent leverage option given that he's caught six TDs over the last three games. Tyler Higbee ($2,700) is an option for larger-field GPPs as he's caught at least three passes in four straight. 

• Favorite Seahawks Stack: QB Darnold + WR Smith-Njigba + WR Nacua
• Favorite Rams Stack: QB Stafford + WR Nacua + WR Smith-Njigba

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Josh Allen + WR Khalil Shakir and/or TE Dawson Knox

QB Patrick Mahomes + WR Rashee Rice +/- TE Evan Engram

QB Justin Herbert + TE Oronde Gadsden

QB Brock Purdy + WR Jauan Jennings or TE George Kittle + TE George Kittle

QB Brock Purdy + RB Christian McCaffrey + TE Trey McBride

QB J.J. McCarthy + WR Justin Jefferson and/or TE T.J. Hockenson

QB Jacoby Brissett + RB Christian McCaffrey + TE Trey McBride

QB Michael Penix + WR Darnell Mooney or TE Kyle Pitts

QB Jameis Winston + WR Wan'Dale Robinson and/or TE Theo Johnson

QB Davis Mills + WR Nico Collins and/or TE Dalton Schultz

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Ja'Marr Chase at PIT ($8,500)

As good as Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua are, I don't it makes sense that Chase is priced below them. He projects for more fantasy points and has the better matchup, against the same Steelers team that allowed 16 catches on 23 targets to him a month ago. He's been unstoppable since Joe Flacco took over, averaging double-digit catches in four games. A lock for me in cash-games.

• WR Puka Nacua vs. SEA ($8,700)

Anytime you can roster a healthy Nacua at lower ownership in a high-totaled competitive matchup, there has to be interest. The same goes for Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($8,900) on the Seahawks side. It won't shock anyone if either breaks the slate. With Chase expected to command twice the ownership, they'd offer nice leverage in GPPs. I'll side with Nacua because of how great Matthew Stafford is playing.

Honorable Mentions: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($8,900); WR Justin Jefferson ($7,500)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• RB Bijan Robinson vs. CAR ($8,300)

Fading Robinson here is twofold: first, there are too many other expensive options to like better. The aforementioned three stud WRs in Smith-Njigba, Nacua and Chase all project better. As does Christian McCaffrey at RB, while Josh Jacobs would offer some savings in a better matchup. Trey McBride is also a priority at TE, and of all that combined makes it tough to justify spending on Robinson. The second part is that the offense has struggled and Tyler Allgeier has been more involved in recent weeks. Robinson's numbers are down considerably over the last month, and I'm just not willing to gamble on him against Carolina, a team that shut out Atlanta in Week 3. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• TE Trey McBride vs. SF ($6,300)

McBride is averaging eight catches and 11.5 targets in Jacoby Brissett's four starts. He has five touchdowns and two 30-point games in that span. Now the Cardinals are without their top WR in Marvin Harrison, having already lost backup Zay Jones. They have a favorable matchup at home against a defense depleted by injuries that hasn't been able to pressure the QB at all. It's a smash spot.

Honorable Mention: WR Michael Wilson ($3,800)

The Bargain Bin

QB J.J. McCarthy vs. CHI ($5,200)

QB Jacoby Brissett vs. SF ($4,900)

QB Michael Penix vs. CAR ($4,700)

QB Jameis Winston vs. GB ($4,600)

QB Davis Mills at TEN ($4,500)

RB Kimani Vidal at JAX ($5,900)

RB Chase Brown at PIT ($5,700)

RB Travis Etienne vs. LAC ($5,600)

RB Aaron Jones vs. CHI ($5,500)

RB Woody Marks at TEN ($5,400)

RB RJ Harvey vs. KC ($5,400)

RB Tony Pollard vs. HOU ($5,300)

WR Calvin Austin vs. CIN ($4,000)

WR Michael Wilson vs. SF ($3,800)

WR Darnell Mooney vs. CAR ($3,700)

TE Dawson Knox vs. TB ($3,300)

TE Pat Freiermuth vs. CIN ($3,300)

TE AJ Barner at LAR ($3,100)

TE T.J. Hockenson vs. CHI ($3,000)

TE Jonnu Smith vs. CIN ($2,900)

TE Tyler Higbee vs. SEA ($2,700)

TE Elijah Arroyo at LAR ($2,600)

Injuries to Monitor

• WR Drake London vs. CAR

London is listed questionable due to an illness and back injury. If he's ruled out, Darnell Mooney ($3,700) would get a significant bump and project well enough to be considered in cash-games. The same goes for Kyle Pitts ($4,100).

Weather

• Windy in Buffalo with possible rain/snow, which could affect the downfield passing game if you're considering Emeka Egbuka, Tez Johnson or Keon Coleman. I wouldn't worry about the TE's or Khalil Shakir.