DraftKings NFL: Week 10 DFS Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's Week 10 slate includes 10 games and features San Francisco at Tampa Bay as the only matchup with a total higher than 50 points. This slate differs from most in that there is little in the way of cheap value or games that are appealing to stack. There aren't as many easy decisions and that makes it great for tournaments. 

There are opportunities to get different based on construction as spending up for QB and WR will be contrarian. There are opportunities for leverage too with certain mid-range RBs and WRs set to be more popular than they deserve to be. In this article I've highlighted some of the best chalk for cash-games as well as a few ideas for GPPs. 

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays.

• RB Aaron Jones at JAX ($6,700)

The Jaguars just allowed 237 rushing yards to the Eagles last week and 170 to the Packers the week before. Now they'll be starting Mac Jones at quarterback, which almost certainly means the offense will have a tougher time staying on the field. Aaron Jones is coming off 25 touches last week and 21 the week before. He had back-to-back games with 26 and 24 touches earlier in the season before the injury hiccup. That type of volume has him projecting among the best values on the slate and he'll be popular as a result. The fact that Mac Jones is starting is icing on the cake. 

• WR DeAndre Hopkins vs. DEN ($5,300)

Hopkins re-announced himself to the world on Monday night with eight catches for 82 yards and two scores in his first full game with Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback. What a feeling that must be after such a long career and so many bad ones. Because the game happened Monday, DraftKings couldn't adjust his salary and now he's considerably too cheap. He'll be one of chalkiest players on the slate, virtually a lock for cash games. On paper it's a tough matchup as the Broncos and Patrick Surtain have shut down WR1s this season. That said, Hopkins lines up in different spots and Zay Flowers just torched them. All I'm saying is there are no sure things in this game.  

Other Cash-Game Options 

QB Brock Purdy at TB ($6,500)

QB Sam Darnold at JAX ($6,200)

QB Justin Herbert vs. TEN ($5,200)

RB Alvin Kamara vs. ATL ($8,100)

RB Bijan Robinson at NO ($7,700)

RB Breece Hall at ARI ($7,600)

RB Aaron Jones at JAX ($6,700)

RB James Conner vs. NYJ ($6,500)

RB D'Andre Swift vs. NE ($6,500)

WR Justin Jefferson at JAX ($8,800)

WR Deebo Samuel at TB ($6,900)

WR Drake London at NO ($6,700)

WR Josh Downs vs. BUF ($6,200)

WR Ladd McConkey vs. TEN ($5,900)

WR DeAndre Hopkins vs. DEN ($5,300)

WR Sterling Shepard vs. SF ($4,100)

TE Travis Kelce vs. DEN ($6,000)

TE George Kittle at TB ($5,800)

TE Cade Otton vs. SF ($5,500)

TE Taysom Hill vs. ATL ($4,000)

TE Hunter Henry at CHI ($3,900)

D/ST Chicago Bears vs. NE ($3,000)

D/ST New England Patriots at CHI ($2,500)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

San Francisco 49ers (28.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (22)

49ers

News of the week is the return of Christian McCaffrey ($8,000) after he missed San Francisco's first eight games with an Achilles injury. Apparently, he has no pain or limitations and is expected to be eased back into the offense. You never know if that means 10 or 20 touches, but he'll be about 10 percent owned and always has the potential for multiple touchdowns. The 49ers have the highest implied total on the slate and matchup against Tampa Bay's pass-funnel defense. It's a great spot for Brock Purdy ($6,500) and he projects accordingly. Deebo Samuel ($6,900) ranks among the top point-per-dollar values at WR and will be one of the most popular at the position. Jauan Jennings ($5,100) hasn't played since Week 6 due to hamstring injury but is expected back. He and first-round rookie Ricky Pearsall ($4,400) will attempt to fill the void left by the injured Brandon Aiyuk. George Kittle ($5,800) picked up the slack last time out with six catches for 128 yards and a score. He's averaging more than six catches per game over his last four and topped 20 fantasy points in four of his last six.

BUCCANEERS

Despite missing his top three WRs, Baker Mayfield ($6,400) nearly pulled if off last week against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. It's unfortunate that Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are out, especially as the Bucs have a tough matchup, but Mayfield has proven time and again that he can compete with whoever he has to target. Cade Otton ($5,500) has transformed into prime Travis Kelce the last three games, with 25 catches on 31 targets and three TDs in that span. He had at least eight catches and 10 targets in all three. Jalen McMillan ($4,200) has yet to practice this week, so it looks like Sterling Shepard ($4,100) and Trey Palmer ($4,000) will once again be the top wide receiving options. If McMillan plays, I'd rank him clearly ahead of Palmer. Sterling will be relatively popular with there being a lack of solid value across the slate. Rachaad White ($5,900) continues to perform well in the passing-game as he's caught 13 passes for three TDs over the last three. Bucky Irving ($5,700) also has 13 catches in the span. Both are cheap and neither will be popular. 

• Favorite 49ers Stack 1: QB Purdy + WR Samuel + TE Otton
• Favorite 49ers Stack 2: QB Purdy + WR Shepard + TE Kittle
• Favorite Bucs Stack: QB Mayfield + WR Samuel + WR Shepard and/or TE Otton

Atlanta Falcons (25) at New Orleans Saints (21.5)

FALCONS

Atlanta ranks fourth in neutral pace and its games are normally voluminous when it comes to total points and combined plays, as they're top 10 in both. New Orleans games also rank top 10 in both of those categories, so we could be in for points if the Saints can keep up. Kirk Cousins ($6,700) has thrown for at least three touchdowns in consecutive games and three times in the last five. Drake London ($6,700) is expected back after missing the second half of last week's game with a hip pointer. Like most weeks, he projects among the top value at WR and will be relatively popular. Darnell Mooney ($6,500) stepped up with five catches for 88 yards and a touchdown. It was his second consecutive game with at least 80 yards and a score and like usual, he won't be popular. Neither will Kyle Pitts ($4,800) due to the surplus of TEs on this slate. Prior to last week's dud against Dallas, he'd had 65-plus yards in four straight. Bijan Robinson ($7,700) might be my favorite running back on the board this week. I went into more detail in the "high-priced heroes" section. 

SAINTS

New Orleans will be without Chris Olave after he suffered another concussion last week and they're already missing Rashid Shaheed, meaning Derek Carr ($5,300) will be short on weapons. Expect to see more of Taysom Hill ($4,000), who caught four passes four 45 yards and rushed five times for 19 yards and a touchdown last week. He projects among the best value at TE. Alvin Kamara ($8,100) had a whopping 35 touches for 215 yards last week. He's been seeing heavy volume in the passing game, part of the reason he projects as the top overall RB. Mason Tipton ($4,500) is the WR I have the most interest in. He's a player they use all over the field, and I expect Carr to take a few deep shots to him in the absence of Shaheed. Cedrick Wilson ($4,600) is also viable as he'll likely operate as the No. 1 WR after catching six passes and a TD in that role two weeks ago. 

• Favorite Falcons Stack: QB Cousins + RB Robinson + WR London + TE Hill
• Favorite Saints Stack: RB Kamara + RB Robinson + TE Hill

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Josh Allen + WR Josh Downs or WR Alec Pierce + TE Dalton Kincaid or WR Khalil Shakir 

QB Jayden Daniels + RB Najee Harris + WR Terry McLaurin

QB Patrick Mahomes + WR Courtland Sutton + WR DeAndre Hopkins and/or TE Travis Kelce

QB Kyler Murray + WR Davante Adams or WR Garrett Wilson + TE Trey McBride

QB Sam Darnold + WR Justin Jefferson + TE Evan Engram

QB Aaron Rodgers + WR Davante Adams/WR Garrett Wilson + RB James Conner or TE Trey McBride

QB Justin Herbert + WR Calvin Ridley + WR Ladd McConkey or WR Quentin Johnston

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Justin Jefferson at JAX ($8,800)

Because of the lack of value across the slate, I expect Jefferson's rostership to be less than 10 percent with most preferring to spend up for running backs instead. No WR in the league has been consistent as Jefferson has topped 15 fantasy points every time out. His "worst" game of the season was six catches for 92 yards. The Jaguars have been awful against the pass, allowing a league-high 113.4 passer rating and third-most yards per attempt. The concern is whether Mac Jones can keep the game competitive. If you can find enough value, Jefferson is worth the gamble regardless because of the leverage he'd offer in tournaments.  

• RB Bijan Robinson at NO ($7,700)

This is smash spot for the entire Atlanta offense with New Orleans decimated by injuries on both sides of the ball. The Saints have given up some massive running performances over the last month. They allowed 277 to Tampa Bay and 225 to Denver in consecutive games that they lost by 20-plus points. I could see Sunday's matchup playing out similarly and Robinson has been as good as any back in the league recently. He's put up at least 21 fantasy points in four straight and it's encouraging to see him with seven receptions in consecutive games. He's done all that and "only" has four TDs in that span, so the upside is clearly there for 30-plus fantasy points, especially as he's had a few long TD runs called back for holding. 

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• RB Breece Hall at ARI ($7,600)

Nothing really against Hall; I like him as a player and the Jets have a nice matchup against the Cardinals, so it's no wonder he projects among the top value at running back. He's expected to garner ownership around 20 percent for a reason, but I'll make the case against him this week. His receiving numbers are down the last two games. Three catches on seven targets for 20 yards. His snap share fell to 75 percent while Braelon Allen's rose to 30 percent. He had 16 and 17 touches in those games, which coincided with the arrival of Davante Adams, longtime short-yardage security blanket for Aaron Rodgers. Mostly, though, I prefer the spots for Alvin Kamara and Bijan Robinson.

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• TE Taysom Hill vs. ATL ($4,000)

The Saints are down to bare bones. With Chris Olave joining Rashid Shaheed on the sidelines and Olave's direct backup Cedrick Wilson yet to practice this week, the Saints are incredibly thin at WR. They're thin at RB too after Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams were ruled out. It would only make sense for the healthy-again Taysom Hill to be more involved. He had five carries for 19 yards and a touchdown last week while adding four catches for 41 yards. He has upside in both the running and passing attack given how shorthanded the offense is. The matchup is also favorable, inside a dome against an uptempo Falcons team. 

The Bargain Bin

QB Aaron Rodgers at ARI ($5,700)

QB Caleb Williams vs. NE ($5,600)

QB Justin Herbert vs. TEN ($5,200)

QB Mac Jones vs. MIN ($4,400)

WR Alec Pierce vs. BUF ($4,900)

WR Quentin Johnston vs. TEN ($4,900)

WR Joshua Palmer vs. TEN ($4,800)

WR Mason Tipton vs. ATL ($4,500)

WR Ricky Pearsall at TB ($4,400)

WR Jalen McMillan vs. SF ($4,200)

WR Sterling Shepard vs. SF ($4,100)

WR Trey Palmer vs. SF ($4,000), if Jalen McMillan is out

WR Adonai Mitchell vs. BUF ($3,400)

TE Taysom Hill vs. ATL ($4,000)

TE Hunter Henry at CHI ($3,900)

TE Juwan Johnson vs. ATL ($3,300)

Injuries to Monitor

• RB Brian Robinson vs. PIT

Robinson (hamstring) is considered a game-time decision after missing last week. If he's ruled out, Austin Ekeler ($5,800) can be considered in tournaments. 

• WR Drake London at NO

London (hip pointer) is listed questionable after sitting out the final three quarters of last week's game. If he's ruled out, Darnell Mooney ($6,500) would get a significant bump while Ray-Ray McCloud ($4,300) would become a viable value option. Kyle Pitts ($4,800) could see a few extra targets as well.  

Weather

• It's going to be windy in Chicago, but what else is new? That game has the lowest total on the slate and isn't one I'd look to for passing-game stacks. Players like Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze and Hunter Henry remain viable as one-off options because they're relatively cheap.