This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.
Sunday's Christmas Day slate features only three games and one clearly stands out as the best target for game stacks. The Green Bay-Miami matchup has a 50-point total and both teams still have everything to play for. The Dolphins have put up points all season and Aaron Rodgers is still capable of greatness on any given Sunday. It will be a popular target in tournaments, and rightly so considering it's difficult to imagine either of the other two games shooting out.
I thought it would be best to breakdown the slate by position. I've highlighted the top value options for cash games and added some ideas for tournaments. Speaking of GPP strategy on small slates like this one, it's best to plan for specific game scripts and then build lineups that make sense. Finding some leverage should be a priority and it's often easier to find because of all the chalk and condensed rostership.
The Games
| Over/Under | Road Team | Road Implied Total | Home Team | Home Implied Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | Green Bay Packers | 23.25 | Miami Dolphins | 26.75 |
| 36.5 | Denver Broncos | 19.75 | Los Angeles Rams | 16.75 |
| 40.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 24 | Arizona Cardinals | 16.5 |
Quarterback
- Tom Brady
at ARI ($6,100)
Brady threw for 312 yards and three TDs against the Bengals last week. It was his fourth multiple-touchdown game in his last five. He's attempted at least 40 passes in 11 of his last 12. The Bucs have the second-highest implied total on the slate for what should be a quite favorable matchup against the Cardinals, who will start third-string QB Trace McSorley ($4,800). I expect Brady to be the most popular QB, just ahead of Tua Tagovailoa ($7,000) based on the $900 salary difference. They're the only two I'd consider for cash games.
- Aaron Rodgers
at MIA ($5,900)
The Packers-Dolphins matchup is clearly the best target for game stacks. It's 50-point total is almost 10 points higher than the next closest game. The Packers must win to keep their slim playoffs hopes alive and they've been playing better lately. You can imagine multiple scenarios where this game shoots out and that's just not the case with the other two matchups. It's hard to ignore the fact that Rodgers has only topped 20 fantasy points once this season, but he needs to play well if the Packers are going to stand a chance. Just to be clear, if you have the money, Tagovailoa is the much better option but Rodgers makes sense in GPPs for leverage and salary relief.
Running Backs
- James Conner
vs. TB ($7,000)
The running back position is wide open as there isn't anyone that stands out as particularly strong value. In the top range, Conner will be more popular than Aaron Jones ($7,500). Partly because Jones has been dealing with a knee injury and is listed as questionable but also because Conner is $500 cheap and projected for more touches. You'd figure the Cardinals will try to lean on Conner to help third-string QB McSorley. In general, both Conner and Jones are usually decent options because of their pass-catching upside, and that's the case again this week.
- Latavius Murray
at LAR ($5,600)
Murray is coming off his best game of the season when he had 24 carries for 130 yards and a touchdown against Arizona last week. He gets a favorable matchup Sunday as the Broncos are favorites over the Rams, who are still without all-world DT Aaron Donald. Murray should have a decent chance to rush for 100-plus yards again.
Keep an eye on the status of Jeff Wilson (hip), who's listed as questionable. Raheem Mostert ($5,900) rushed for 136 yards against the Bills last week in Wilson's absence. If Wilson were to miss, Mostert would look like a pretty good option against the Packers. The Buccaneers running backs are in a good spot against the Cardinals, but it's always tough choosing which one to roster. Leonard Fournette ($5,800) has the higher ceiling, in my opinion. AJ Dillon ($5,700) has four TDs in his last three games as he continues to be featured near the goal line. He may not project well, but his touchdown upside makes him a worth tournament option.
Wide Receivers
- Tyreek Hill
vs. GB ($9,000)
Hill is expected to be the most popular player on the slate, mostly due to the fact that he's really the only elite option. The Dolphins-Packers matchup stands out and Hill is the best player in that game. He's scored in three consecutive games and has a ceiling as high as any player in football. It's hard to make a case for DeAndre Hopkins ($7,500) with Trace McSorley throwing him the ball, but most everyone will think the same. Jaylen Waddle ($7,200) is who I'd look to for a bit of leverage if I didn't roster Hill.
- Chris Godwin at ARI ($6,900)
Both Tampa Bay receivers project well from a point-per-dollar standpoint. I've mentioned couple times that the Bucs are in a really good spot, up against a below average defense and a third-string QB. They should have plenty of scoring chances. Godwin has eight-plus catches in three of his last four and he's found the endzone in three of his last five. Mike Evans ($6,200) on the other hand, hasn't scored since Week 4. Hopefully that keeps some people off of him because he's drawn nine targets in three of his last four and he's had a couple of long TDs called off in that span. He's the type of player who's always capable of 100-plus yards and two scores.
- Tutu Atwell
vs. DEN ($3,600)
Atwell is going to be the popular cheap WR. Cooper Kupp is still out and now Ben Skowronek is out, meaning that Atwell should be on the field for almost all of the passing plays. He showed some promise two weeks ago against the Raiders when he caught five of nine targets for 50 yards. It doesn'tmuch to pay off a $3,600 salary and more importantly, he makes it easier to afford Tyreek Hill.
Tight Ends
- Tyler Higbee vs. DEN ($4,100)
Tight end is especially weak. The case for Higbee is similar to that of Atwell. With Kupp and Skowronek out, Higbee could see a bump in target share. He's coming off his first TD of the season on Monday night against Green Bay. Greg Dulcich ($3,900) is a similar option. I'd like him a bit less is Courtland Sutton (hamstring) returns, however. Trey McBride ($3,200) could be worth a punt. The promising rookie had the best game of his young career last week when he caught four passes for 55 yards.
Defense/Special Teams
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at ARI ($3,300)
Trace McSorley is set to make his first start for the Cardinals. These types of spots usually lead to sacks and turnovers. On a three-game slate, there's at least some merit to rostering any of six defenses. The Broncos ($3,600) against Baker Mayfield seem like a decent option as well.
