DFS Football 101: Important Tips for New Players, Round 4

There are a few ways to use contest data in order to improve your DFS game. The strategies I am referring to will be used on DraftKings because they offer a "CSV" file in which you can download every single lineup in a given contest. They also provide the player ownership percentages for that contest. This is important because it will allow you to see which players everyone else was on and if you were on the same ones.

If you pull up any contest on DraftKings, you will see "Export Lineups to CSV" at the bottom of the standings window. This will bring up a CSV file in Excel, you just need to save the file under the ".xls" extension and rename it the name of the contest. When you are in the file, you will see the rank, entry ID, username, points, lineup, and player with ownership percentage (scroll to the right). Compare the players you owned against the top-owned players at each position. The highest-owned players are considered the "chalk". In cash games (heads up, 50/50s, and double ups), you want to be on the chalk because you only need to beat half of the field.

I will go back and look at the top players at each position and analyze why they were the most popular along with what took place. This will be important as a new player because it will help you identify where you were right and where you might have gone wrong. Was everyone on a player who ended up being a bust? What was the reason they were a bust? Is this something I could have identified beforehand?

Let's rundown each position from Week 3 on DraftKings. The following contest data is from the $5 Single-Entry 50/50:

Week 3 "Chalk" Plays – Highest Percentage Owned

Quarterback

• Rivers was going against the Colts' defense with a high total.
• Tannehill was at home against the Browns. Miami was a heavy favorite in the game.
• Mariota was at home against a Raiders defense that ranked as one of the worst in the league.
• Newton was coming off a huge game against the 49ers and was a home favorite.
• Rodgers was at home against a depleted Lions defense and was a home favorite.

KEY TREND: QBs facing bad defenses.

Running Back

• Gordon was by far the most popular play in Week 3 as he was against the Colts, very cheap, and the sole running back in the Chargers' backfield.
• Williams has been the best running back in fantasy football through the first two weeks, but now his salary is reflecting that.
• Johnson is one of the very few bell cows you can rely on each week. The Cardinals were favored on the road against the Bills.
• Murray was affordable, at home, and against a weak Raiders defense.
• Forte had been a monster the first two weeks and still underpriced. He was on the road as a slight underdog against the Chiefs.
• Sims inherited the starting running back role for the Bucs when Doug Martin was injured. His price was extremely cheap.
• Riddick inherited the starting running back role for the Lions when Ameer Abdullah was injured.
• Elliott was at home, solid favorite against a depleted Bears defense.
• Michael inherited the starting role from Thomas Rawls and the Seahawks were a strong home favorite against the 49ers. He was extremely cheap.
• Crowell was coming off a huge Week 2, but was a heavy underdog on the road against the Browns.

Wide Receiver

• Travis Benjamin was coming off a huge week with Keenan Allen out against a weak Colts defense.
• Landry was going against a weak Browns defense and Miami was a huge home favorite.
• Diggs was coming off a huge week and still cheap.
• Fitzgerald was still priced affordably and the Bills were without their number two cornerback.
• Shepard was in a high-total game against the Redskins.
• Brown is a cash game staple, but very expensive.
• Kelvin Benjamin was coming off a huge game against the 49ers, but had a tough matchup against the Vikings.
• Wallace has been one of the best values all season at WR.
• Sharpe had a good matchup at home against a weak Raiders defense and Delanie Walker was out.
• Jones has been one of the best wide receivers in fantasy and Sam Shields was out for the Packers. Diggs put up monster numbers against the Packers in Week 2.

• Once Delanie Walker was ruled out, Pitta became the most popular pivot play based on percentage of targets, matchup, and price.

• Dolphins were 10 point favorites at home against a Browns team with a rookie quarterback.
• Cowboys were seven point favorites at home against the Bears and a backup
• Cardinals were on the road facing a beat up Bills team with no Sammy Watkins.
• Broncos were on the road against the Bengals.
• Seahawks were 10 point favorites at home against an awful 49ers offense.

• People gravitated to the Panthers without any regard of the tough matchup against the Vikings. This is referred to as "recency bias" in which people have taken for granted last week's performance and expect the same thing to happen the following week. It can also work in the opposite effect in which a good player has an unexpected bad game which will drive ownership down the following week. This is more useful in tournaments.
• Dolphins were some of the most popular plays against the Browns. This will be a theme every week. Target players against the Browns.
• Chargers were also some of the most popular plays. They were facing a bad Colts defense, but also consider that they were without Antonio Gates, as well as Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead. Perhaps that was too much for them to overcome.
• Attack defenses that have suffered multiple injuries to starting players (Bears and Lions this week).