Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 10

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I went 6-7 last week, and it could have been worse. After the early games I was 2-6, but went 4-1 in the afternoon and standalone games. It would be nice to consider that a hot streak on which to build, but remember, I picked all the games at the same time, and the order in which they're played is irrelevant. There were some unlucky beats, particularly the Steelers, which were also a best bet, but I probably don't remember the games where bounces went my way. Incidentally, my record on best bets fell to 5-4-2.

This week, I like a few games quite a bit: The Jets, Redskins, Titans, Ravens and Giants. In fact, I'll make the Titans and Ravens best bets, and maybe I'll add one or two in the comments. Coin flips were the Bears-Rams, Browns-Steelers and Cardinals-Seahawks.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Bills +2.5 at Jets

I have no idea why this line isn't three or even three and a half. The Jets are at least as good, at home and Ryan Fitzpatrick, Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall all practiced in full this week. Take New York.

Jets 24 - 17

EARLY GAMES

Lions +11.5 at Packers

The Packers were miscast as road favorites against undefeated teams the last two weeks, but they're back in character at home against the Lions. Lay the wood.

Packers 33 - 17

Cowboys +1.5 at Buccaneers

Dez Bryant's (likely) back, but I'm not sure why the Matt Cassel Cowboys aren't getting the full three on the road. Take Tampa.

Buccaneers 23 - 20

Panthers -5.5 at Titans

I like the Titans here as a home dog, with a healthy quarterback, a new coach and facing an undefeated team for which they'll be up. Back Tennessee.

Titans 23 - 20

Bears +7 at Rams

The Bears actually aren't bad this year, and Jay Cutler played well against the Chargers but for one miscommunication that resulted in a pick six. The Rams defense is a taller order, but Nick Foles is terrible, so I think Chicago hangs with them. Back the Bears.

Rams 24 - 23

Saints -1 at Redskins

The Saints will move the ball, but outdoors in November, I usually like to fade Drew Brees, and the Redskins should have success against a terrible defense. Back Washington.

Redskins 27 - 23

Dolphins +6.5 at Eagles

I've been backing both of these teams most of the year, with better success on the Eagles. I thought Sam Bradford played better last week, and there's a chance the offense is coming together. The Dolphins passing game seems out of sync, and the Eagles are tough against the run. I'll lay the points, barely.

Eagles 27 - 20

Browns +5 at Steelers

This game is a coin flip for me. I suppose I'll take the Browns and the points against a backup QB.

Steelers 23 - 20

Jaguars +5.5 at Ravens

Despite fielding one of the worst pass defenses in the league, and playing five of their first seven games on the road, four of them on the west coast, the Ravens were in every game. Now they're at home and coming off a bye against a beatable opponent. Lay the points.

Ravens 30 - 20

LATE GAMES

Vikings +3 at Raiders

I keep fading the Vikings and Raiders, and both keep beating me. Something's got to give here. I think the Raiders are stronger at home, and Derek Carr has converted me. Back Oakland.

Raiders 23 - 19

Chiefs +6 at Broncos

I hate taking the Chiefs, but the Broncos don't seem to pull away, and their excellent pass defense is somewhat squandered against Alex Smith who won't throw it downfield anyway. Back Kansas City.

Broncos 20 - 16

Patriots -7 at Giants

I enjoyed taking the Patriots for once last week. Rooting for them to pull away is so much more pleasant than hoping their underdog opponent somehow gets it together. Moreover, the Patriots have covered 59 percent of the time in the Bill Belichick era, and that's not an accident - the Vegas models apparently have a hard time adjusting to a team that doesn't routinely punt on 4th-and-short in plus territory and that keeps scoring points even when the win is in hand. That said, I love the Giants as an underdog, and this game will force them to open things up and not moronically try to establish their medicore running game. Take the points (and the over).

Patriots 37 - 33

SUNDAY NIGHT

Cardinals +3 at Seahawks

I could go either way here, but my first instinct was the Cardinals will keep it close. Their offense is good enough to move the ball even in Seattle.

Cardinals 17 - 16

MONDAY NIGHT

Texans +10.5 at Bengals

This might not bear out historically, but I like fading undefeated teams because I expect the opponent to be especially up for them. The Texans are also coming off a bye, and I think they should be able to move the ball and stay in this one. Back Houston.

Bengals 27 - 20

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I went 6-7 in Week 9 to bring my record to 54-73-5 on the year. I'm 5-4-2 on best bets. I went 135-116-5 in 2014, and best bets were 18-12-1. From 1999-2014, I've gone 2,068-1,880 (52.4%), not including ties.