This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
It was a fitting end to my worst handicapping season in 17 years, a 6-9-1 week. I also went 0-1-1 on my best bets (Titans, Giants) to put me at 7-9-3. I don't have a great explanation for what went wrong - I felt reasonably confident in my picks most weeks - but I lost the thread early and was never able to pick it up again for a sustained stretch.
In any event, let's turn our attention to the playoffs.
I feel strongly about only one game, and that's the Redskins-Packers, which I'll count as a best bet. But none of the other three are coin-flips, i.e., I have at least a lean in each one.
SATURDAY GAMES
Chiefs -3 at Texans
The Chiefs have won 10 in a row and draw a Texans team that's only in the playoffs because someone had to win the AFC South. That said, the Texans rank fifth in yards per play allowed (5.0), one spot ahead of the Chiefs (5.1), and Houston's defense, like Kansas City's, has gotten tougher as the season's gone on. The Chiefs have a big edge on offense at 5.5 YPP (13th) to Houston's 4.9 (31st), but the Texans' number includes four starts by Ryan Mallett, two by T.J. Yates and one by Brandon Weeden. With Brian Hoyer healthy and a solid defense, I'll take the three points at home in what I expect to be
It was a fitting end to my worst handicapping season in 17 years, a 6-9-1 week. I also went 0-1-1 on my best bets (Titans, Giants) to put me at 7-9-3. I don't have a great explanation for what went wrong - I felt reasonably confident in my picks most weeks - but I lost the thread early and was never able to pick it up again for a sustained stretch.
In any event, let's turn our attention to the playoffs.
I feel strongly about only one game, and that's the Redskins-Packers, which I'll count as a best bet. But none of the other three are coin-flips, i.e., I have at least a lean in each one.
SATURDAY GAMES
Chiefs -3 at Texans
The Chiefs have won 10 in a row and draw a Texans team that's only in the playoffs because someone had to win the AFC South. That said, the Texans rank fifth in yards per play allowed (5.0), one spot ahead of the Chiefs (5.1), and Houston's defense, like Kansas City's, has gotten tougher as the season's gone on. The Chiefs have a big edge on offense at 5.5 YPP (13th) to Houston's 4.9 (31st), but the Texans' number includes four starts by Ryan Mallett, two by T.J. Yates and one by Brandon Weeden. With Brian Hoyer healthy and a solid defense, I'll take the three points at home in what I expect to be a tight, low-scoring game. Back Houston.
Chiefs 19 - 17
Steelers -3 at Bengals
If Andy Dalton were playing, I'd have to think this line would be Bengals minus three, and I can't see him being worth any more than six, especially when those six are as valuable as it gets, taking the line from one key number to another. The Bengals have a far better defense, are familiar with Ben Roethlisberger and should be able to move the ball through the air against a weak Steeler secondary. Take the home dog.
Bengals 24 - 23
SUNDAY GAMES
Seahawks -5 at Vikings
The Vikings have to be the sharp play getting this many points at home against a public team like Seattle. They also have a good defense, and Teddy Bridgewater played better in the season's second half. But the Seahawks are arguably the best team in the NFL on a neutral field and shut down the run better than any team in the NFL, taking away the Vikings' biggest weapon. I'll do the square thing and lay the wood.
Seahawks 27 - 17
Packers -1 at Redskins
The Redskins were 6-2 in the second half, while the Packers were 4-4 (including the Hail Mary win against the Lions), yet it's the Packers laying a point on the road. I thought it might be because the Packers were better on a per-play basis, but that's not really the case. While the Redskins allow 6.0 yards-per-play on defense (29th), and Packers 5.5 (17th), that margin is reversed on offense with the Redskins at 5.6 (10th) and the Packers at 5.1 (27th.) Digging deeper into the advanced metrics, Massey-Peabody has the Packers as nearly four-points better than the Redskins on a neutral field. But while Green Bay's full-season body of work might indeed be more impressive than Washington's, the Redskins have been better of late, likely due to the improvement of Kirk Cousins and the return to full health of playmakers Jordan Reed and DeSean Jackson, i.e., it might be foolish to expect regression from the Redskins when their improved play is predicated on sustainable and persistent changes. Bottom line, this point spread seems to presume regression for both teams (Packers positively, Redskins negatively) from their late-season form, and while that's typically a good bet, it's off base in this instance. Take Washington.
Redskins 24 - 20
I went 6-9-1 in Week 17 to bring my record to 114-134-8 on the year. I was 7-9-3 on best bets. I went 135-116-5 in 2014, and best bets were 18-12-1. From 1999-2014, I've gone 2,068-1,880 (52.4%), not including ties.
