This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
This week, I especially like the Cardinals, and I'll make them a best bet.
SATURDAY GAMES
Chiefs +5 at Patriots
The Chiefs won big in Houston last week, but the game was closer than the 30-0 score. Texans TE Ryan Griffin dropped an easy TD in the second half, the Texans had first and goal from the two in the first half before direct-snapping to J.J. Watt for no reason and then throwing a terrible interception on the next play. Moreover, the Chiefs began the game with a kick return TD. That's a three-score swing, and it doesn't count other unforced picks Hoyer threw. Nonetheless, the Chiefs have now won 11 games in a row, and a road win against a nine-win team is nothing to scoff at even if the margin should have been considerably smaller.
The Patriots were the league's best team for half the year before injuries struck, but by season's end they were so beat up, they wound up losing to the Dolphins. It's hard to know whether the two-week break and supposed return-to-health of Julian Edelman will restore their early-season form. Perhaps the biggest
This week, I especially like the Cardinals, and I'll make them a best bet.
SATURDAY GAMES
Chiefs +5 at Patriots
The Chiefs won big in Houston last week, but the game was closer than the 30-0 score. Texans TE Ryan Griffin dropped an easy TD in the second half, the Texans had first and goal from the two in the first half before direct-snapping to J.J. Watt for no reason and then throwing a terrible interception on the next play. Moreover, the Chiefs began the game with a kick return TD. That's a three-score swing, and it doesn't count other unforced picks Hoyer threw. Nonetheless, the Chiefs have now won 11 games in a row, and a road win against a nine-win team is nothing to scoff at even if the margin should have been considerably smaller.
The Patriots were the league's best team for half the year before injuries struck, but by season's end they were so beat up, they wound up losing to the Dolphins. It's hard to know whether the two-week break and supposed return-to-health of Julian Edelman will restore their early-season form. Perhaps the biggest question is whether Tom Brady's compromised offensive line can hold off the Chiefs fierce pass rush long enough for him to pick apart their beatable secondary.
My feeling is the full-strength Patriots would destroy the Chiefs, but we know New England was nowhere close to that in Week 17, and assuming they're somewhere in between on Saturday, I'm inclined to take the points. Back the Chiefs.
Patriots 20 - 17
Packers +7 at Cardinals
I was wrong about the Packers - I thought the form they'd been unable to shake for the last half season would do them in against a surging Redskins team at home. But Washington's defense was poor, and the Packers pass defense was good enough to handle last week's version of Kirk Cousins. I think this week will be a different story.
Even in the win at Washington, Aaron Rodgers managed only 5.8 YPA against a weak defense, and his longest completion was a 34-yarder to James Jones. In short, the Packers still lack playmakers on offense, and that's a problem against a tough run defense against which it'll be difficult to sustain long drives and an opposing offense that will attack the Packers down the field. Moreover, the Cardinals should have an easy time running against Green Bay's defense (29th in YPC.) In sum, it's hard to see how the Packers will slow down the Cardinals, and if they can't, it's equally hard to see how they'll keep up. Lay the wood.
Cardinals 34 - 17
SUNDAY GAMES
Seahawks +2.5 at Panthers
What a reward for going 15-1 and earning the NFC's No. 1 seed. The Panthers draw arguably the best team in the NFL on a neutral field, and this line reflects that as the Seahawks aren't even getting the full three despite being on the road. Of course, Seattle was incredibly lucky even to be here, thanks to a missed chip-shot field goal, but I'll chalk up their uninspiring performance largely to the sub-zero temperatures.
The Seahawks and Panthers are oddly mirror images of one another: Russell Wilson and Cam Newton are known as mobile quarterbacks, but both put up huge passing numbers during the second half of the year. The Seahawks have an outside deep threat in Tyler Lockett, the Panthers in Ted Ginn. The Seahawks have a shutdown cover corner in Richard Sherman, the Panthers in Josh Norman. The Seahawks have a speedy, ball-hawking linebacker in Bobby Wagner, the Panthers in Luke Kuechly. The Seahawks have a veteran running back returning from injury in Marshawn Lynch, the Panthers in Jonathan Stewart. The Seahawks have a go-to possession target who also makes plays down the field in Doug Baldwin, the Panthers in Greg Olsen. The Seahawks were slightly better against the run this year, the Panthers slightly better against the pass.
In the end, this is the right line, and which side one picks is largely a matter of feel. The Seahawks were lucky to escape with a win in terrible conditions, and I think they'll play better in comparatively balmy North Carolina this week. Take Seattle.
Seahawks 27 - 24
Steelers +6.5 at Broncos
If the Steelers were at full strength, this line would be closer to 2.5 or three, and any prediction here is therefore contingent on assumptions about Ben Roethlisberger's and Antonio Brown's health. My concern is more with Roethlisberger because (1) he's the quarterback and (2) even if he plays there's no way to know in advance whether he's 100 percent. In Brown's case, if he's cleared from his concussion, he's presumably at full capacity. Given Roethlisberger has torn ligaments in his throwing shoulder and having observed him on the final drive in Cincinnati where he was unable to throw a pass more than 10 yards, I'm inclined to think he'll be compromised - with or without Brown. And in that case, he's toast on the road against a rested defense that's among the league's best. Lay the wood.
Broncos 19 - 3
I went 1-3 in the Wild Card round. I was 114-134-8 on the year overall and 7-10-3 on best bets. I went 135-116-5 in 2014, and best bets were 18-12-1. From 1999-2014, I've gone 2,068-1,880 (52.4%), not including ties.
