This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I went 1-3 last week to put me at 2-6 for the playoffs and 7-11-1 on best bets. Moreover, my only win (Denver) wasn't especially convincing. That said, I feel as though I only got one game truly wrong (Arizona-Green Bay), and the Packers only avoided a seven-point-loss (push) on a 4th-and-20 conversion from their end zone and a subsequent Hail Mary. I took the Chiefs, but only because I didn't know whether Rob Gronkowski or Julian Edelman would be healthy. Given the Pats won by seven (line was five), and both players were huge factors, I have no problem with it. Finally, the Seahawks-Panthers didn't settle anything with one team dominating the first half and the other the second. The Panthers moved on, but if that game were played at 4 pm ET again this Sunday, the line would still be the same.
This week, I like the Patriots quite a bit (best bet) and the Panthers-Cardinals are a coin flip.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Patriots -3 at Broncos
Watching the Broncos play against a handicapped Ben Roethlisberger, I had two impressions: (1) Gary Kubiak has no business coaching a playoff team; and (2) Peyton Manning isn't capable of making the defense defend the entire field. While Denver's superior defense, improved running game and talented receivers were still good enough to draw a No. 1 seed and handle the beat-up Steelers, I expect the Patriots to attack their weaknesses and win this game fairly easily. Lay the wood.
Patriots
I went 1-3 last week to put me at 2-6 for the playoffs and 7-11-1 on best bets. Moreover, my only win (Denver) wasn't especially convincing. That said, I feel as though I only got one game truly wrong (Arizona-Green Bay), and the Packers only avoided a seven-point-loss (push) on a 4th-and-20 conversion from their end zone and a subsequent Hail Mary. I took the Chiefs, but only because I didn't know whether Rob Gronkowski or Julian Edelman would be healthy. Given the Pats won by seven (line was five), and both players were huge factors, I have no problem with it. Finally, the Seahawks-Panthers didn't settle anything with one team dominating the first half and the other the second. The Panthers moved on, but if that game were played at 4 pm ET again this Sunday, the line would still be the same.
This week, I like the Patriots quite a bit (best bet) and the Panthers-Cardinals are a coin flip.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Patriots -3 at Broncos
Watching the Broncos play against a handicapped Ben Roethlisberger, I had two impressions: (1) Gary Kubiak has no business coaching a playoff team; and (2) Peyton Manning isn't capable of making the defense defend the entire field. While Denver's superior defense, improved running game and talented receivers were still good enough to draw a No. 1 seed and handle the beat-up Steelers, I expect the Patriots to attack their weaknesses and win this game fairly easily. Lay the wood.
Patriots 27 - 20
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Cardinals +3 at Panthers
As good as the Panthers looked in the first half, they were shut out 24-0 in the second, leading me to believe the Seahawks took 90 minutes to wake up after traveling to the east coast for a 10 am body-clock game. The same thing happened three years ago when the Seahawks trailed 20-0 to the Falcons at the half, only to lose 30-28, so I don't want to give the Panthers full credit for a win over what was arguably the best team in football. Nonetheless, Carolina is now 16-1, playing at home, and featuring the league's third best defense by yards-per-play (4.9.)
The Cardinals, by contrast, had the ninth best defense (5.2), but the top offense (6.3), well ahead of the Panthers' 12-ranked unit (5.5 YPP.) Moreover, Carolina benefited from a weak schedule - six games in their soft division plus four more against the AFC South and four against the NFC East. The Cardinals had a roughly average schedule, drawing the AFC North and NFC North, but their numbers were accumulated against somewhat tougher competition.
Arizona looked shaky against the Packers, though, and while Green Bay needed a miracle to force overtime, the Cardinals scored their go-ahead touchdown on a tipped pass that luckily fell into Michael Floyd's hands. Moreover, the Packers got to Carson Palmer, sacking him three times and pressuring him 12 others. And Carolina's pass rush is better than Green Bay's.
The bottom line, these are roughly equal teams, the game is in Carolina and the line is appropriately three. As this is the late game, there's no body-clock issue, either. As such, I'm picking this on a hunch, but it's a true coin-flip for me. Take Arizona and the points - it's likely Palmer's last chance, and I think he'll rise to the occasion against a Carolina secondary that's beatable aside from Josh Norman.
Cardinals 27 - 23
I went 1-3 in the Divisional round to go 2-6 in the playoffs. I was 114-134-8 on the year overall and 7-11-3 on best bets. I went 135-116-5 in 2014, and best bets were 18-12-1. From 1999-2014, I've gone 2,068-1,880 (52.4%), not including ties.
