Beating the Book: NFL Week 13 Picks Against the Spread & Score Predictions

Welcome to the NFL Week 13 edition of Beating the Book, where we give you NFL ATS picks for every game, every week -- including Thanksgiving Weekend.

We're coming off of a slog of a Week 12 in which we went just 5-8-1 ATS, marred by brutal losses on New England (-6.5, won by 6), Baltimore (-13.5, won by 13) and Kansas City (-3.5, won by 3). That's simply the way it's been going over the last few weeks, but we'll reset and turn our attention toward a packed Week 13 slate with all 32 teams back in action.

The slate, of course, begins with a three-game set on Thanksgiving Day consisting of a trio of excellent matchups. Packers-Lions gets us started at 1pm ET, followed by Chiefs-Cowboys and Bengals-Ravens. Even the Black Friday Game – a matchup of two 8-3 teams in the NFC – is a banger.

You can find my thoughts and score predictions on each of those games, and the entire NFL Week 12 slate, below. As always, our best bet of the week will be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 12:

• Texans +5.5 vs. Bills: We did take the Bills to win the game, but the Houston defense continues to prove it can keep this team afloat against anyone.
• Cowboys +3.5 vs. Eagles: While it looked dead in the water midway through the second quarter, the Cowboys rallied back for their best win of the season.

Worst calls of Week 12:

• Raiders -3.5 vs. Browns: Hated this pick the moment that game started. It was our Stay-Away of the Week for a reason.
• Saints -1.5 vs. Falcons: I'm choosing to believe that there was never a world in which I was going to pick this game correctly.

Last week: 5-8-1 ATS; 9-5 SU; best bet lost (SEA)

On the season: 88-85-5 ATS; 118-60-1 SU; 6-6 best bets

2024 season: 146-134-4 ATS; 195-89 SU; 7-12-2 best bets

Thanksgiving Day Slate

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

Spread: Lions -2.5

Total: 48.5

This is is the second meeting of the season between division rivals as the Lions look to avenge an ugly, 27-13 defeat at Lambeau Field back in Week 1. Since then, the Lions have mostly looked like the Lions, but they've had a few slip-up games against Kansas City, Minnesota and Philly. Last week against the Giants was nearly in that category, but Detroit was able to force overtime and ultimately pull out a 34-27 win despite giving up 517 yards to Jameis Winston and the Giants' offense.

The Lions offensive line is a concern, and the defense has to be called into question after last week, but I do like this spot for Detroit going up against a conservative – and still-banged-up – Packers offense. Look for Green Bay's defense to give Jared Goff problems, but we'll take the Lions to win a lower-scoring game at home.

Note: Those concerns on the offensive line could be lessened in the near future.

The pick: Lions 23 – Packers 20

Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Chiefs -3.5

Total: 52.0

With the Cowboys' upset of the Eagles last week, suddenly they're back on the fringes of the NFC playoff race. The odds are still very much stacked against them, but the Cowboys can at least envision a path to competing for the final Wild Card spot.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs were able to somehow, someway eek out a win over the Colts last week in overtime. While the KC offense once again struggled to generate chunk plays, they picked up 33 first downs, ran 91 plays and piled up 494 yards of offense on Indy. Had it not been for an early Patrick Mahomes interception near his own goal line – plus a brutal Kareem Hunt fumble in the red zone – the Chiefs would've had a good chance to win more comfortably. With that said, the Chiefs had a 1st and goal from the 2 yard line with 1:05 remaining and somehow had to settle for a field goal.

Long story short, something still feels off about the Chiefs' offense. There's no easy button right now, and Mahomes is struggling to create opportunities down the field. The rushing attack has been dependable, but with Hunt as the featured back, there's a notable lack of explosiveness. Perhaps the return of Isiah Pacheco changes that, but I have my doubts.

With the Cowboys' defense mostly healthy and playing at a high level behind the addition of Quinnen Williams, this is far from an easy road matchup for KC. We'll take the Chiefs to win outright, but Dallas can make this a field goal game.

The pick: Chiefs 26 – Cowboys 23

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Ravens -7.0

Total: 51.5

While the Bengals are basically out of the playoff hunt in the AFC, the expected return of Joe Burrow ramps up the intrigue for this divisional matchup. Considering Burrow hasn't played since Week 2, I don't want to assume he'll be back in peak form, but it's nonetheless a major boost to a Bengals team that's gone 1-8 SU without him. Burrow won't have Tee Higgins at his disposal, however, and he still has the worst defense in the history of DVOA on the other side of the ball.

On paper, the Ravens should be a nightmare matchup for the Cincy defense, but Baltimore is yet to look impressive since Lamar Jackson returned a month ago. The Ravens have won all four of his starts, but those have come against Tua Tagovailoa, J.J. McCarthy, Dillon Gabriel/Shedeur Sanders and Tyrod Taylor. Baltimore has essentially played the same game three weeks in a row, plagued by slow starts before eventually doing just enough to beat a bad team in the second half.

That trend is certainly worrisome, but the Bengals' defense is so dreadful that it's tough to envision Jackson struggling against this unit, especially in a home primetime spot.

The pick: Ravens 31 – Bengals 21

Black Friday Game

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles -7.0

Total: 44.5

Fascinating matchup on Black Friday between a pair of teams with the same record but very different vibes. The Bears have won seven of their last eight games, most recently beating Mason Rudolph and the Steelers in Week 12. That was just the latest in a string of favorable schedule spots for Chicago, which has faced Spencer Rattler, Tyler Huntley, Joe Flacco, Jaxson Dart/Russell Wilson, J.J. McCarthy and Rudolph over the last six weeks. Since Week 2, the Bears have only faced two defenses that currently rank in the top 20 in the NFL in EPA per play (MIN, NOR).

If you can't tell, I'm not a huge believer in this Bears team, though there is something to be said for taking care of business week in and week out, even against a soft schedule. Chicago's defense continues to generate turnovers at the highest rate in the league, while the offense has only eight give-aways on the season.

The Eagles, meanwhile, enter this game after blowing a 21-0 lead in Dallas last week. If you ask Philly fans, the sky has been falling for a while, but I still have plenty of faith in this team, even if you never know what you're going to get, offensively, on a week-to-week basis.

After going pass-heavy last week, I expect the Eagles to recommit to the run and test a shaky and banged-up Bears defense that ranks 22nd in rush defense EPA, 26th in success rate and 29th in yards per carry allowed. Philly also leads the NFL with only six offensive turnovers on the year.

The pick: Eagles 30 – Bears 20

Sunday Early Slate

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Rams -10.0

Total: 44.5

As we move to the Sunday slate, we'll keep these write-ups a bit more brief – or at latest attempt to. On paper, this is a potential trip-up spot for the Rams, who will be traveling cross-county following their latest beatdown against the Bucs on Sunday night. But the Panthers are on a short week after falling flat in San Francisco – a reminder that the version of this offense we saw against Atlanta in Week 11 was mostly smoke and mirrors.

Carolina still has plenty to play for and has the defensive personnel to slow down the Rams' passing attack. But LA has done nothing but take care of business against inferior teams this season. During their six-game winning streak, the Rams have five wins by at least 14 points and three by at least 24 points.

The pick: Rams 31 – Panthers 14

San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns

Spread: 49ers -4.5

Total: 36.5

This might be the game I'm most excited to watch on Sunday. An elite Browns defense – fresh off of 10 sacks of Geno Smith last week – going up against a quarterback who threw three interceptions on three consecutive possessions in the first half on Monday night. Credit to Brock Purdy and the Niners for still grinding out a convincing win, but facing a defense that ranks second in EPA per play, first in success rate, first in EPA per rush and fourth in EPA per pass will be a stiff test.

Keep an eye on the weather in Cleveland, as well. We don't want to overreact early in the week, but the current forecast calls for temperatures in the 30s with sustained high winds and the potential for snow. There's a reason this total has plummeted down to 36.5 after opening 40.5.

The pick: 49ers 20 – Browns 14

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Colts -4.5

Total: 44.5

With the Colts taking a loss at KC last week, and the Texans ripping off three straight wins, this is suddenly a huge game with massive postseason implications. Sitting at 8-3, Indy is still in the driver's seat in the AFC South, but the Colts' lead over Jacksonville is down to 1.0 game – with two matchups remaining – while Houston is now just 2.0 games back.

C.J. Stroud will step back in at quarterback this week after Davis Mills led Houston to wins over the Jags, Titans and Bills. Houston's defense deserves most of the credit for those wins, but Mills comported himself well, throwing for 240 yards per game with five touchdowns and only one interception. For the most part, Stroud is still fighting to re-find his 2023 form, but his presence should provide a boost to an improving Houston passing game with multiple weapons at wide receiver behind Nico Collins.

Indy's offense versus the Texans' defense is the real matchup to watch, though, especially with the Colts ending last week's loss with four consecutive three-and-outs. Even so, the Colts are still No. 1 in the NFL in EPA per play, success rate and EPA per rush. Houston ranks top-three in the first two categories, but the run defense grades out closer to league average.

With Stroud perhaps shaking off some rust, I lean toward Indy, but this is a low-confidence pick. We're in full-on stay-away territory.

The pick: Colts 24 – Texans 20

New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Dolphins -5.5

Total: 41.5

Very tricky line here. At first glance, I'm not sure the Dolphins should be giving 5.5 points to anyone right now. But Miami has won three of its last four games, including a convincing, 30-13 win over the Bills in Week 10. The Dolphins' 16-13 win over Washington in Madrid was significantly less convincing, but we have to acknowledge that they've at least separated themselves from the Is this the worst team in the NFL? conversation. 

On the other side, New Orleans now sits at 2-9, having lost five of its last six after falling to the Falcons at home last week. The Saints' defense has, at times, been frisky, but the offense has now scored 10, 17, 10, 3, 14 and 19 points over the last six weeks. Seven of those 10 points last week came on a pick-six, by the way. 

As much as I want to grab points with the Saints here, there's a reason this line is sitting where it is. I do think the New Orleans defense can make this interesting, but we'll ride with Miami at home.

The pick: Dolphins 24 – Saints 17

Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets

Spread: Falcons -2.5

Total: 39.5

I'll be honest, I would love to just pass on this game. Obviously it's going to be our Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week, and it'll be a finalist for the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Year. Both teams are on their second quarterbacks, both teams are down an elite receiver, and neither of these head coaches can be trusted.

Talent-wise, the Falcons are still the better team, but Atlanta has consistently played down to competition this season, going 1-5 ATS as a favorite and failing to cover by 14.0 points per game. The Jets, meanwhile, are 6-3-1 ATS as a dog, though most of those covers came with Justin Fields in the lineup and before the trade deadline.

It is worth noting that Atlanta still technically has something to play for. This season has been a disaster, but the Falcons are somehow only 2.0 games back in the division with a matchup against the Bucs, who may be without Baker Mayfield this week, looming in Week 15.

Regardless, I would not recommend betting this game.

The pick: Falcons 20 – Jets 17

Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Bucs -2.5

Total: 43.5

As I write this on Wednesday afternoon, it's still very much unclear if we'll see Baker Mayfield for the Bucs on Sunday. Mayfield is leaving the door open but acknowledged that it may be wise for him to sit out this week. So we'll see on that.

Either way, this is a game the Cardinals should have a chance to steal on the road. Even if Mayfield plays, it's fair to question how mobile and durable he'll be. And if he does sit out, then it's Teddy Bridgewater time for the Bucs. While the Bucs are expecting to get Bucky Irving back, he hasn't played since Week 4 and will likely be re-introduced with a lighter workload.

I'm most interested to see whether Arizona continues with its recent air raid tendencies behind Jacoby Brissett, who's attempted 49, 57 and 44 passes over the last three games. Tampa Bay can stop the run, but the secondary has crumbled of late and the Bucs now rank in the bottom 10 against the pass on the season. Over the last three weeks, the defense has given up 435 yards and 28 points to New England; 414 yards and 44 points to Buffalo, and 333 yards and 34 points to the Rams in a game that was over midway through the second quarter.

Knowing what we know now about the Bucs' quarterback situation, we'll lean toward Arizona to win a close game.

The pick: Cardinals 24 – Bucs 23

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

Spread: Jaguars -6.5

Total: 41.5

One thing that's jumped out to me about the Jags this season is they're finding ways to win games they would always lose in the past. Last week against Arizona was perhaps the best example yet, as Trevor Lawrence turned it over four times, yet Jacksonville was able to survive for a 27-24 overtime win. 

The Jags' rushing attack – third in EPA per rush – and a top-10 defense have been able to keep them afloat the last two weeks, and they'll once again lean on those areas against the one-win Titans. It goes without saying that it's been a rough season for Tennessee, but the Titans are 5-6 ATS and have now covered three in a row against the Chargers, Texans and Seahawks. Cam Ward is improving, but the lack of weapons around him remains a major issue. 

With the Colts facing a tough Texans team, this should be a big opportunity for Jacksonville to take care of business and potentially pull even with Indy in the AFC South before those two teams square off in Week 14. Because it's the Titans, I don't see the Jags losing this game, but we need to keep in mind that the Jags DNA is still in this team, so anything is on the table.

Ultimately, we'll take the Jags to win by a touchdown on the road. I don't feel good about it, but Jacksonville is well-coached enough to avoid a major letdown.

The pick: Jaguars 24 – Titans 17

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks -11.5

Total: 41.0

We don't need to fully re-hash J.J. McCarthy's performance at Lambeau Field on Sunday, but just know that it wasn't good. In fact, it was quite bad.

We're talking 12-of-19 passing for 87 yards; 5 sacks for negative 35 yards; two interceptions; a 17.9 QBR and a bottom 1 percentile EPA per dropback. In his five starts this season, McCarthy has a negative-9.2% completion percentage over expected – easily the worst mark in the league. Cam Ward, for reference, is at negative-5.2%. Bo Nix is at negative-2.4%.

McCarthy's disastrous performance was one of the stories of Week 12, but he's since landed in concussion protocol, and we may be looking at Max Brosmer appearance for the Vikings with Carson Wentz on IR.

Obviously, McCarthy going up against the Seattle defense on the road had massive disaster potential. And realistically, it's a terrible spot for Brosmer to potentially make his NFL debut. But part of me thinks… can it really be any worse? If I'm the Seahawks, I think I'd rather see McCarthy than the unknown that is Brosmer, even if he's never thrown a pass in a regular-season game.

We likely won't have an answer on McCarthy's status until closer to Sunday, but either way this should be an advantage spot for Seattle. The Seahawks did mess around in the second half last week and blow a cover, but on balance they've been able to hammer lesser opponents (8-3 ATS on the season).

We'll take Seattle to win and cover the 11.5, but Brian Flores' familiarity with Sam Darnold looms large here.

The pick: Seahawks 27 – Vikings 14

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: Chargers -8.5

Total: 40.5

Not exactly a headliner on the Week 13 slate, but this is a big game for the Chargers, at least, as they look to keep pace in the AFC playoff race. LA has been a difficult team to figure out thus far. They've essentially bounced back and forth between impressive games – wins over Kansas City, Denver, Minnesota, Pittsburgh – and head-scratching games, including narrow wins over the Dolphins and Titans, losses to the Giants and Commanders, as well as a 35-6 drubbing at the hands of Jacksonville in Week 11.

For the most part, they've played up – or down – to their competition, so it's difficult to asses which version of the Chargers we'll get this week. Coming out of a bye, and facing the doormat that the Raiders have become, I'd like to think we get the version of the Chargers that dominated Minnesota and Pittsburgh, winning those games by a combined score of 62 to 20.

The Chargers' issues on the offensive line are what could swing this game, but the Chargers' defense should be the latest unit to harass Geno Smith, who took ten (10) sacks last week.

With the number hanging at 8.5, we'll trust Jim Harbaugh to have his team ready at home.

The pick: Chargers 23 – Raiders 13

Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Bills -3.5

Total: 47.5

We finish out the afternoon slate with one of the most intriguing games of the week. My first instinct is to hammer the Bills here, but we can't just brush aside a pair of ugly losses to the Dolphins and Texans over the last three weeks. I like this as a get-right spot for Josh Allen against a shaky Steelers defense, but the Bills haven't been any better on that end. On the season, they're down to 23rd in EPA per play and 31st in EPA per rush.

The run defense, in particular, is a major concern heading into a matchup against a Steelers team with two viable backs who they use in creative ways. The Steelers are about a league-average rushing team (13th in EPA per rush), but they get Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell involved in the passing game at one of the highest rates in the league. With DK Metcalf (ankle) very much questionable, the Steelers may have to lean on those backs even more heavily than usual.

Ultimately, like most Steelers games, this will likely come down to the final possession or two in the fourth quarter. With Aaron Rodgers (wrist) at less-than-100 percent, we'll side with the Bills to get a road win and pull out a narrow cover. The hope is that the Houston game was a true wake-up call, since apparently the Miami loss was not.

The pick: Bills 29 – Steelers 23

Sunday Night Football

Denver Broncos at Washington Commanders

Spread: Broncos -5.5

Total: 43.5

Very quietly, the Broncos have reeled off eight straight wins to sit at 9-2, but a good chunk of those have been ugly. Six of those nine wins have come by three points or less, including a bizarre 13-11 victory over the Jets in London and a 10-7 win over the lowly Raiders in Week 10. It's more than fair to question the consistency and upside of the Broncos' offense, but the defense continues to play at an elite level and may get Patrick Surtain back this week.

I absolutely see this as a spot where Bo Nix could struggle once again, but the Commanders' defense has been a bottom-five unit over the last month, surrendering 400-plus yards in four straight games before holding Miami to only 311 in Madrid before the bye. That was an imminently winnable game for Washington, which made losing play after losing play down the stretch.

We're approaching this one with a high degree of caution, but the gap between these two defenses is enough to push me toward the Broncos on the road.

The pick: Broncos 20 – Commanders 14

Monday Night Football

New York Giants at New England Patriots

Spread: Patriots -7.5

Total: 45.5

We finish out the week with what should be a sneaky-fun Monday Night Football matchup. It's still unclear if the Giants will get Jaxson Dart back this week, but he was able to practice in full on Wednesday, even while remaining in concussion protocol.

If Dart returns, he adds another element to the Giants' ground game, which ranks just outside the top 10 in EPA per rush this season. If it's Jameis, who had 10 completions of at least 20 yards last week against Detroit, then all bets are off and we could have ourselves another wild shootout.

Either way, I think the Giants are catching the Pats at a decent time. New England has won nine in a row but has shown some cracks in recent weeks and will be without two starting offensive linemen – including first-rounder Will Campbell – on Monday night. Drake Maye versus a porous Giants defense is a concern, but New York has been able to hang around against superior competition for most of the season.

We won't go as far as to predict a SU upset, but we'll take the points with the Giants on the road.

The pick: Patriots 29 – Giants 26