Backfield Breakdown: RB Usage Report & Week 17 Waivers Preview

Injury Report 🚑

New Injuries

James Conner (knee / uncertain)

Kenneth Walker (ankle / uncertain)

Tyrone Tracy (ankle / day-to-day)

Justice Hill (concussion / week-to-week)

Cardinals RB James Conner left in the third quarter and didn't return, handing Arizona's backfield over to (mostly) Michael Carter, who was fifth in the pecking order just a few weeks ago. Trey Benson (ankle) didn't play Sunday, and Emari Demercado (back) is on IR. There's a real chance for Carter to go from the practice squad two weeks ago to 20 touches Week 17, although I imagine DeeJay Dallas also will get some playing time if Conner is out. FWIW, Carter got 71% of snaps and all seven RB opportunities after Conner's exit Sunday, with Dallas taking 29% of snaps and not getting a touch. Dallas had a one-yard receiving TD earlier in the game, but that was from a FB alignment with Conner also on the field.

Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker played deep into the fourth quarter after missing the previous two games with a calf injury. He was scheduled for an MRI on Monday, however, hinting at legitimate concern about his ankle. Curiously, Kenny McIntosh had a role Sunday, even before Walker was injured, playing just one fewer snap than Zach Charbonnet (22% to 20%) and getting one more opportunity (4-3). The assumption of Charbonnet being a fantasy RB1 whenever Walker is out may not hold for Week 17, although I'd lean toward starting him unless there's an issue with the oblique injury that had Charbs on the injury report last week (he returned to full practice by the end of the week and avoided a game designation).

Giants RB Tyrone Tracy missed the final few snaps of Sunday's blowout loss to Atlanta. At the time, it seemed like resting him at the end of a blowout. But then Giants coach Brian Daboll revealed that Tracy had aggravated his ankle injury from the past couple weeks. It hasn't cost the rookie a game yet, and prior to the final drive Sunday he'd taken 71% of snaps and 10 of 14 RB opportunities (including a highlight-reel TD catch). If Tracy is out for Week 17, it's possible Eric Gray gets significantly involved rather than Devin Singletary being a workhorse. 

Missed Week 16

Alvin Kamara (groin / week-to-week)

Jaleel McLaughlin (quad / day-to-day)

Trey Benson (ankle / uncertain)

David Montgomery (MCL / out for season)

Nick Chubb (foot / out for season)

Sincere McCormick (ankle / out for season)

Jonathon Brooks (ACL / season-ending) & Raheem Blackshear (chest / day-to-day)

MarShawn Lloyd (ankle/appendix / eligible Week 16)

J.K. Dobbins (knee - IR / eligible Week 17)

Austin Ekeler (concussion - IR / eligible Week 18)

Christian McCaffrey (IR - knee) & Jordan Mason (IR - ankle)

Stock Report 📊

A lot of what you'll see here is building on my work from Box Score Breakdown, the weekly recap article with stat tables for every team that include snaps, routes, and target/air-yard shares, in addition to all the basic stats like carries, catches, yards and TDs. I also discuss role specifics and make note of various circumstances that could cause numbers to be misleading, so it's worth checking out if you're looking to go into even more detail on running backs before making waiver adds or lineup decisions for the upcoming week.

Note: Opps. = carries + targets    

All stats below are from Week 16 only unless otherwise specified      

Trending Up 📈

Derrick Henry - 74% snaps, 26 of 30 RB opps, 189 total yards  /  Justice Hill injury

Jahmyr Gibbs - 74% snaps and 28 of 34 RB opps before final drive

Breece Hall - 79% snaps, 20 of 26 RB opps, 90 total yards

Jonathan Taylor - 76% snaps, 29 of 41 RB opps, 218 yards + 3 TDs

Bucky Irving - 59% snaps, 16 of 19 RB carries, 19 of 30 RB opps, 92 total yards + TD

Jerome Ford - 79% snaps, 16 of 22 RB opps, 131 total yards + TD

Michael Carter - 71% snaps and 7 of 7 RB opps after Conner's early exit

Gus Edwards - 46% snaps, 16 of 23 RB opps, 71 total yards + 2 TDs

Jaylen Warren - season-high 67% snaps, 17 of 28 RB opps, 92 total yards

Tyjae Spears - 60% snaps, 14 of 26 RB opps, 66 total yards + 2 TDs  /  B2B 20+ PPR games

Kenny McIntosh - 20% snaps, four of 23 RB opps, 29 total yards  /  Walker injury

Trending Down 📉

Brian Robinson - 63% snaps, 45% routes, 13 of 22 RB opps, 41 total yards

Joe Mixon - 66% snaps, 54% routes  /  averaging 12.5 PPR points over past 4 games

Tony Pollard - 40% snaps, 12 of 26 RB opps, 37 total yards

Najee Harris - 28% snaps, 10 of 28 RB opps, 42 total yards

Isiah Pacheco - 33% snaps, 11 of 28 RB opps, 25 total yards

Rhamondre Stevenson - 43% snaps, 13 of 25 RB opps, seventh fumble of season

Craig Reynolds - 15% snaps, five of 34 RB opps

Roschon Johnson - 27% snaps, 1 of 13 RB opps, 3 total yards

Kimani Vidal - 33% snaps, five of 23 RB opps, 24 total yards

Unsettled Backfields 🎲

These are the backfields that need to be monitored closely, where role changes could be imminent or we aren't sure about the team's depth chart moving forward. Backfield with a clear hierarchy/order won't be included unless there's a long-term injury to the starter and the backup situation is uncertain or confusing. 

Messy Backfields

1. Jacksonville Jaguars
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. Las Vegas Raiders
4. Kansas City Chiefs
5. Los Angeles Chargers

In four games since a Week 12 bye, the Jaguars have twice used Travis Etienne as their lead runner, once used Tank Bigsby, and once split the rushing work pretty evenly between them. Sunday's loss at Las Vegas was the split game, with Bigsby getting 12 carries and one target on 30% snap share while Etienne had nine carries and three targets on 51% share. As if things weren't frustrating enough, they reintroduced D'Ernest Johnson with 20% snap share, taking a bunch of playing time away from Etienne in passing situations. A Week 17 matchup with Tennessee means there's a chance either Etienne or Bigsby thrives early on and keeps getting fed, but it's hard to guess which one it would be, if either.

For Pittsburgh, the trend of Najee Harris losing playing time (and touches) reached a pinnacle Saturday, with 28% snap share being a season low. He got nine carries and one target in the loss to Baltimore, while Jaylen Warren had 12 carries and five targets on 67% snap share. And then Cordarrelle Patterson played just three snaps but scored a receiving TD on his lone opportunity, augmenting the frustration for anyone who had the misfortune to start Harris in a fantasy playoff matchup. You'd rather start Warren than Harris this week, especially against a tough Chiefs defense, but Warren probably doesn't have a volume ceiling beyond the 17 touches he took Saturday in Baltimore, and he's still unlikely to get goal-line carries unless they happen to be in a two-minute drill.

The Raiders used both Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah in all situations Sunday against Jacksonville, rather than the split we saw earlier this season, in which Abdullah only played in obvious passing situations. Mattison had a 12-7 advantage in carries and a 57/43 edge for snap share, plus a 7-6 advantage in targets. That might seem to make him the better fantasy option, but Abdullah has been playing better, and Sunday was no exception with his 12 touches yielding 85 yards and a TD (while Mattison's 16 touches went for 56 yards and a TD). Both are RB3s for Week 17 at New Orleans, i.e., startable in leagues with 14+ teams or in desperation situations (like if you lost James Conner and David Montgomery the past two weeks).

The Chiefs' backfield isn't actually confusing at this point, to be fair. Any notion of Isiah Pacheco taking his old role during the regular season is dead, and it probably won't happen in the playoffs either, as he isn't his usual self while playing with plates/screws in his leg. Pacheco seemed to regain the lead role in his second game back from IR, but Hunt actually got slightly more snaps and touches the past two weeks. It's essentially a 50/50 split, with some variability week to week based on who is faring better, matchups, etc.

Chargers RB Gus Edwards had a big game against the Broncos on Thursday, taking 16 of the 23 RB opportunities en route to a 14-68-2 rushing line. However, he played just 46% of snaps, after 27%, 44% and 53% in the previous three games without J.K. Dobbins (IR - knee). Kimani Vidal's snap share halved from Week 15 to Week 16, in part because the Chargers were able to run late in the game, and in part because Hassan Haskins took over a bunch of the passing-down snaps Vidal had been getting. Haskins played 20% of snaps and scored a TD on one of his two targets. Any notion of Vidal having value this season is dead, and Edwards is another guy in that RB3 range where you can start him but probably won't like the results.

Waivers Look-Ahead ±

If you're looking for a more comprehensive waivers article, RW's Kevin Payne has you covered. Here we're just taking a quick look at some RBs to target based on the work contained in this article and Monday's Box Score Breakdown. 

In order to qualify, the RB needs to be rostered in no more than 60 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Potential Short-Term Starters

1. Michael Carter - 0%
2. Trey Benson - 18% (ankle)
3. Tyjae Spears - 56%
4. Gus Edwards - 48%
5. Devin Singletary - 39%
6. Patrick Taylor - 46% 
7. Ameer Abdullah - 23%
8. Alexander Mattison - 48% 
9. Tank Bigsby - 52% 
10. Kendre Miller - 47%
11. Antonio Gibson - 11%
12. Tyler Allgeier - 32%

Good luck sorting this out in a week with two games on Wednesday, one on Thursday and three on Saturday. This is a good list of potential RB help, but ranking the players against one another without injury updates is all but impossible. 

For starters, we don't know how serious James Conner's knee injury is, nor if Trey Benson has any shot to play Week 17 (re: Michael Carters). We also don't know if guys like Tyrone Tracy and Tony Pollard are just slightly banged up or in real danger of missing time (re: Tyjae Spears, Devin Singletary. Then there's the possibility of Isaac Guerendo returning from a hamstring injury, which would take Patrick Taylor off the board as an option.