ADP Battles: Stevenson vs. Higgins vs. Metcalf

Most experienced fantasy managers go into their drafts with some type of cheat sheet. But let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll break down players in the same ADP range to help you make your best decision on draft day.

If you've missed the first few articles in the ADP Battles series, you can catch up by visiting my RotoWire page. This week, we'll look at a trio of players who often go off the board in the early part of the third round in 12-team leagues.

Rhamondre Stevenson

Stevenson emerged as a fantasy force last year. Although he handled an ordinary 210 carries, he was targeted 89 times. His receiving usage ensured he was a solid weekly option. Will he continue to be a force or was last year an outlier?

Upside

As a 225-pound running back, Stevenson proved to be problematic for defenses. He broke tackles at a 74th percentile rate and was 96th percentile in yards after contact. He averaged 5.0 yards per carry. Unlike last year, when the poor offensive coaching of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge allowed defenses to load up to stop the run, this year should be better. New offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien is expected to bring in an RPO-based offense (one that he ran with current QB Mac Jones when the duo was at Alabama). The potential of the Patriots' offense could provide Stevenson with better running lanes. It's possible Stevenson gets more carries, as he certainly has the size to take on a bigger role. Finally, in a best-case scenario, he retains a heavy receiving role. If everything clicks, his ADP of RB9 is a fair price.

Downside

Stevenson shared the backfield last year with Damien Harris. Harris left for Buffalo, but Stevenson will be in a similar situation this year after the team signed Ezekiel Elliott on Monday. Harris averaged about 11 touches a game last year. Elliott might not get that many touches, but he could get the goal-line carries. Stevenson had 19 rushes inside the 10-yard line last season to Harris' six. Elliott had 26 last year in Dallas. There's also the matter of Stevenson's fumbling. In the past, Bill Belichick didn't tolerate his RBs fumbling. Despite losing just one, Stevenson fumbled four times last year. If that happens again, it's possible Stevenson loses playing time. Also, Pierre Strong could cut into Stevenson's receiving role, which would limit Stevenson's floor and upside. If any of these cases end up occurring, Stevenson would be more of a top-18 than a top-10 RB.

The Bottom Line

I love Stevenson's talent. He should be used as a three-down RB, which would make him a player worth spending a premium pick on. But with Elliott likely stealing goal-line carries and the possibility of fewer targets, there's too much risk at his asking price. If I drafted him, I'd be paying for the best-case scenario.

Tee Higgins

Upside

Although Higgins has yet to have an elite season, that could change in 2023. Last year, he had the bad fortune of having pre-game or early injuries twice. Those injuries left the Bengals WR shut out in the box score. It's always dangerous to extrapolate numbers. However, had Higgins played at his per-game levels in those two contests that he was on the sidelines, we'd be looking at 85 receptions, 1,176 yards and eight TDs. If that was the case, we might be viewing him as a fantasy WR1 along with Ja'Marr Chase. Also, the Bengals took five weeks to make adjustments against the defenses that were dropping their safeties deep to try to limit explosive plays. If coach Zac Taylor makes more adjustments before the season, this passing attack could be elite. Should that happen, Higgins could sail past 1,300 yards and possibly 10 TDs.

Downside

Higgins is often drafted inside the top-30 picks of a draft. However, he hasn't yet had a season that showed he has the upside for that level of pick. Higgins has yet to have an 1,100-yard season. The fourth-year WR hasn't had more than seven TDs in a season. He also has not had more than 110 targets in any year. In addition, after missing three games in 2021, Higgins missed one game while playing a total of 11 snaps in two others. He hasn't been as durable as we'd like. Overall, his consistency makes his downside palatable. As the No. 2 WR behind Ja'Marr Chase, and playing with an elite QB in Joe Burrow, it would be hard to imagine Higgins failing to reach 1,000 yards and six TDs.

The Bottom Line

Fantasy managers looking for a WR in the early part of the third round would be wise to consider Higgins. Not only would you be drafting a star player on a great offense, but the high floor along with potential for ceiling makes him a perfect addition to fantasy rosters.

DK Metcalf

Metcalf is one of the most physically imposing WRs in the NFL. In each of his four seasons, he hasn't had fewer than 900 yards or six TDs in any season. He'll now enter his second year with Geno Smith as the starting QB.

Upside

The fact that he has a 1,300-yard season on his resume shows that he can be an elite producer. However, that production came in the famous "Let Russ Cook" season, when the QB was lights out the first 10 weeks of the season. Metcalf did most of his damage during Wilson's hot streak. Once the league started playing their safeties deep that year, Metcalf was inconsistent. Looking at the WR's upside from that season might not make sense, as it seems like an outlier. That's especially true since many teams continue to use those same strategies with their safeties that derailed the end of Metcalf's 2020 season. He definitely has 12-TD upside. But in terms of yardage, it would be a bit surprising if he had a 1,200-yard season. 

Downside

It's hard to believe that two seasons have passed since Metcalf had that magical season. And don't forget that his massive 2020 campaign was the last year before the league went to a 17-game schedule. In the two seasons since (he played in all 17 games each year), Metcalf averaged 1,008 yards and nine TDs. Also, despite Geno Smith having a career year, the league seemed to catch up to him in the latter part of the season. After throwing for more than 300 yards four times through Week 13, he averaged 220 yards and 1.4 TD passes his last five games (including playoffs). Not only is it possible that the league caught up to Smith, but the team added Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round of this year's draft. With the Seahawks not having a difference maker at their third WR spot in the past few years, Metcalf could lose some target volume. The downside case has Metcalf struggling to reach 1,000 yards and coming up short of 10 TDs.

The Bottom Line

I think that Metcalf's ADP is still being influenced by his 2020 season. Since I believe that season is now an outlier for him, I see little difference between him and WRs going almost two rounds later (DJ Moore, Terry McLaurin, Christian Kirk.) I love the player. Metcalf is one of the most fun players to watch in the league. And if he was part of an explosive passing attack, I would see him as a top-8 WR. But given his situation, I struggle to draft him in the early part of the third round.

The Final Word

I believe that Higgins is on the verge of having a breakout season. I don't like the missed time the last two years, but I don't sense that Higgins has chronic injury issues. He's the player I will select first among this group. After that, I prefer Stevenson. If he's used as a true lead RB, he could have an amazing fantasy campaign. However, the presence of Elliott limits that potential. Finally, despite Metcalf being one of my favorite players, I don't trust that his situation gives him a high enough floor or ceiling to be considered this early in a draft.