ADP Analysis: Exploiting Default Ranks and ADPs on Yahoo, ESPN and Sleeper

This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.

The default rankings or ADPs on major fantasy platforms like ESPN, Yahoo and Sleeper aren't exactly the worst way to create player valuations, but they also aren't the best option available — not by a long shot. Results from drafts that all have real money on the line provide better valuations, and unlike 5-10 years ago, it's not at all difficult to find this data early in the summer. ADPs from popular best-ball sites are the most commonly cited examples, and we can also factor in data from high-stakes leagues with in-season management.

The goal below is to identify the biggest discrepancies between money leagues on those platforms and the ADPs or rankings that we see when entering a draft room on ESPN, Yahoo or Sleeper. Those default ranks often influence decisions even in leagues full of sharp players, if only because we tend to assume that the sketchy rankings may impact how other people think. 

For example, I may realize that Christian Kirk is way lower than he should be in the default ranks... but then I pass on him in Rounds 5-6 because he might still be available in Round 7 or 8 if my competitors are putting too much stock in the rankings. Some of my competitors are probably thinking the same thing, so we all get greedy and keep passing on Kirk with the hope of drafting him later at an even cheaper price.

No offense taken if you scroll past my writing to get to the lists of names below for each site. But I do want to touch on some strategic differences between typical redraft leagues and best ball, hopefully adding some context to the numbers. These differences don't fully explain some of the massive ADP discrepancies, but it is perfectly valid for certain players to be drafted considerably earlier (or later) in the traditional redraft leagues on ESPN/Yahoo/Sleeper (compared to where they go in best-ball or high-stakes contests).

Kirk is actually one of the best examples. We know he's a good player but not a dominant one, and I'm pretty confident he'll average between 12.5 and 15 PPR points per game. That makes him very valuable for best ball, because he'll end up topping 20 points a bunch of times and give us a big boost those weeks. Roster depth matters a lot, so it's great to have guys like Kirk who may experience significant weekly variance but are safe bets in terms of season-long production (Gabe Davis in Buffalo was probably the most extreme example of this in recent years, albeit a few tiers lower than Kirk).

Kirk is also super valuable in redraft leagues with 14 teams, or multiple flex spots, or really any other settings that make depth a serious challenge and leave mostly scrubs on waivers. On the other hand, Kirk isn't nearly as valuable in 10-team leagues with 13-16 roster spots, where it's usually easy enough to find WRs on waivers that can average 10-12 PPR points. In these formats there's probably not a huge difference between a WR3 like Kirk and the WR5 on our bench. As such, it should be an easy decision to draft a top QB or TE over Kirk. That includes guys like Lamar Jackson and Trey McBride with best-ball ADPs more than a full round behind Kirk's.

Other players that tend to be more valuable for best ball and/or deep leagues include guys like Brandin Cooks and Rashid Shaheed who are safely locked into starting roles but unlikely to be targeted on a high percentage of snaps/routes. They'll definitely have some good weeks that help a best ball team, but they probably won't average enough points to be worth starting in redraft leagues with 10/12 teams. It's wise to instead draft someone like Dontayvion Wicks, who is less of a known commodity but has flashed enough talent to hint at a real ceiling if he can overtake Romeo Doubs or Christian Watson for a starting job.

This may all seem counterintuitive to some fantasy players, as best ball is often associated with hunting for "ceiling" or "upside" without much regard to floor/downside. That's fair when it comes to week-to-week variance, e.g., Shaheed or Davis, but it's not necessarily the case when we talk about guys whose season-long variance looks to be high. These risky/unknown players tend to be better picks in a lineup-setting format where the 'bust' outcomes are mitigated by cutting them and replacing them with another player (which isn't an option in best ball).

NFC's high-stakes leagues are soft of a middle ground between best ball and traditional redraft leagues in terms of player valuations. They have 12 teams and in-season management, but the combination of tough competition and a 20-round draft means waiver options tend to be sparse. Someone like Kirk might end up not really mattering if we draft well at WR, or he might end up saving our skin if WR is the weak point of an otherwise solid team.

Now, let's take a look at each of the three most popular redraft sites, comparing ADPs on those platforms to an ADP average that I've taken from NFC (high-stakes redraft) and a best ball site

Exploiting ESPN's Ranks 

ESPN seems to list players in draft rooms by order of the site's default ranks — presumably created by experts/projections — rather than relying on updated ADP results the way Yahoo and Sleeper do. The chart at the bottom of this section shows both the default rankings and ADP from ESPN, comparing them to numbers from NFC (high stakes) and Drafters (best ball). I chose Drafters because it's full PPR — which is now the default on ESPN — and also because it has ADP results that I consider quite sharp.

The following lists and discussion will focus on comparisons between ESPN ADP (not the default rankings) and an ADP average taken from NFC and Drafters. The list of 'Best ESPN Values' only shows the most glaring examples, and there are dozens of other players (mostly WRs) that go way later on ESPN than on NFC/Drafters. Those somewhat lesser examples are in bold in the big ADP chart at the bottom of this section.

Best ESPN Values

• WR Drake London (NFC/Dr ADP: 16.2  vs.  ESPN ADP: 36.8)
• WR Nico Collins (20.3 vs. 37.8)
• RB De'Von Achane (22.1 vs. 33.8)
• WR Jaylen Waddle (24.6 vs. 49.0)
• WR Deebo Samuel (27.1 vs. 47.3)
• WR Cooper Kupp (28.6 vs. 50.0)
• WR Amari Cooper (44.8 vs. 81.3)
• WR George Pickens (45.3 vs. 74.2)
• WR Christian Kirk (47.7 vs. 98.8)
• TE Trey McBride (48.0 vs. 54.9)
• TE Dalton Kincaid (52.6 vs. 63.4)
• WR Terry McLaurin (54.9 vs. 91.7)
• WR Hollywood Brown (61.8 vs. 109.3)
• RB James Conner (73.5 vs. 82.5)
• QB Kyler Murray (77.8 vs. 88.8)
• WR Brian Thomas (94.1 vs. 138.6)
• QB Jayden Daniels (101.2 vs. 121.0)
• RB Chase Brown (107.7 vs. 141.9)
• RB Jerome Ford (110.0 vs. 133.6)
• WR Joshua Palmer (116.4 vs. 168.7)

The general trend here is obvious, and it's the same as every other year. In the early rounds on ESPN, we see running backs going earlier and wide receivers later (compared to best-ball and high-stakes leagues). Achane stands out as a noteworthy example, typically going in Round 3 after a slew of other backs have been taken. On best ball sites, we'll never see Isiah Pacheco drafted before Achane. On ESPN, that's what we'll usually see. And we'll also see Pacheco taken ahead of a dozen or so WRs that almost always get picked before him for best ball.

Part of what we're seeing can best be described as a positive feedback effect, whereby people are less likely to draft WR2 types in Rounds 2-3 because ESPN's ADP and default ranks suggest similar players will still be available in Rounds 4-5... and that's usually correct! Of course, there's also a lot of good value at WR in later rounds, and if we use four of our first five picks on WRs we're mostly going to miss out on those subsequent bargains because the need at other positions is so much greater.

I nonetheless consider it wise to hammer WRs in Rounds 3-5. Locking down something like Nico Collins + Jaylen Waddle + DeVonta Smith with those three picks more than makes up for the probability of being pressured to pass on other WR bargains later on. In terms of pivots to other positions, Achane and QB Josh Allen (ADP 27.7) are two of my favorite options. From the 1.01 in a 12-team league, I wouldn't hesitate to start with McCaffrey-Achane-Allen and then spend the next 6-7 rounds piling up WR value (which likely will be abundant).

Another key point when we look at the ADP chart below is that there tends to be much better value on RBs after the fifth or sixth round. Running backs with lower ADPs on ESPN include James Conner, David Montgomery, Zamir White, Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, Raheem Mostert, Zack Moss, Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears, Chase Brown, Devin Singletary, Jerome Ford and Trey Benson. Just be careful in assuming that's how every draft will play out, as the ESPN default ranks mostly have these guys much earlier than the ESPN ADP results. In drafts that closely follow ADP the value may not be there.

Worst ESPN Values

• RB Saquon Barkley (17.1 vs. 12.5)
• RB Kyren Williams (23.6 vs. 16.4)
• RB Derrick Henry (26.5 vs. 18.7)
• RB Travis Etienne (29.5 vs. 23.6)
• WR Michael Pittman (29.7 vs. 29.6)
• RB Isiah Pacheco (32.1 vs. 19.9)
• WR Stefon Diggs (34.5 vs. 34.3)
• RB James Cook (51.2 vs. 34.4)
• RB Joe Mixon (51.9 vs. 34.6)
• RB Alvin Kamara (57.6 vs. 37.1)
• QB C.J. Stroud (63.8 vs. 44.8)
• TE George Kittle (76.2 vs. 56.2)
• RB Nick Chubb (124.5 vs. 101.0)
• TE T.J. Hockenson (143.8 vs. 120.5)
• QB Aaron Rodgers (156.9 vs. 123.2)

I'm intentionally not listing the elite QBs and TEs here, even though they go much earlier on ESPN than on best ball sites, because it's a trend I consider entirely logical. That's especially true for ESPN leagues with only eight or 10 teams, where it's easy to fill all the RB and WR spots and even to find decent RB production on waivers throughout the year. Reduced difficulty of filling those RB2/WR3/FLEX slots makes the elite guys at QB and TE relatively more valuable (compared to third/fourth-tier options at RB and WR). 

That said, we do see mixed results when it comes to the top tight ends. Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews go early on ESPN, while Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid and Kyle Pitts are bargains. The likelihood of finding decent value with second/third-tier TEs  means it's probably unwise to draft LaPorta or Kelce any earlier than pick No. 30 or so, which is later than where they usually go on ESPN.

ESPN ADP Comparison Grid

Exploiting Yahoo's Ranks         

Yahoo's default ranks seem to update based on ADP, and their draft rooms also give us the option of sorting by their experts' rankings or projected points. For these purposes, we'll work with the ADP-based defaults, comparing numbers to NFFC (high stakes) and Underdog (best ball). We're using Underdog rather than Drafters because it's half PPR, which is the default setting on Yahoo. 

Best Yahoo Values

• WR Drake London (16.5 vs. 28.9)
• WR Nico Collins (20.6 vs. 37.1)
• RB De'Von Achane (
• WR Jaylen Waddle (23.9 vs. 37.6)
• WR Malik Nabers (33.1 vs. 70.3)
• WR DeVonta Smith (31.6 vs. 52.5)
• WR Zay Flowers (42.9 vs. 68.0)
• WR Calvin Ridley (60.9 vs. 94.4)
• WR Rashee Rice (65.0 vs. 103.4)
• WR Christian Watson (75.1 vs. 118.0)
• RB Jaylen Warren (85.7 vs. 94.2)
• RB Jonathon Brooks (90.7 vs. 107.2)
• TE Brock Bowers (101.8 vs. 113.8)
• QB Jayden Daniels (101.7 vs. 114.0)
• RB Tyjae Spears (103.2 vs. 114.0)
• RB Chase Brown (107.7 vs. 125.5)
• QB Trevor Lawrence (117.1 vs. 126.6)

This is incredibly similar to what we see with ESPN, with running backs (besides Achane and Gibbs) going much earlier and wide receivers much later (compared to best ball and high-stakes leagues). The extent of that gap tends to be a bit smaller on Yahoo, albeit with some rather noteworthy exceptions like Collins and Nabers sticking out as phenomenal values.

The major difference between ESPN and Yahoo is that the RB > WR trend holds beyond the first five or six rounds on Yahoo. On ESPN, we saw that a lot of RBs tended to come quite cheap after the fifth or sixth round. On Yahoo, we see that the premium placed on RBs extends much later, with guys like Conner, Montgomery, Stevenson, etc. going much earlier than they go on NFC or Underdog. 

This has massive strategic implications, heightening the risk of a WR-heavy approach in the early rounds. On Yahoo, I'd be a bit more willing to "reach" for RBs in the first few rounds, knowing there are lower odds of getting great values at the position later on. It also helps that prices for second- and third-tier RBs aren't quite as inflated on Yahoo as they are on ESPN.

Relatively speaking, some of the best values on Yahoo are the guys I consider to be the Top 7: Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, Jahmyr Gibbs, De'Von Achane and Kyren Williams. It's probably smart to draft at least one of those guys even if the price feels like a reach compared to Underdog ADP.

Worst Yahoo Values

• RB Derrick Henry (26.4 vs. 15.7)
• RB Josh Jacobs (44.8 vs. 24.5)
• QB C.J. Stroud (61.9 vs. 41.0)
• RB David Montgomery (71.0 vs. 47.7)
• RB Aaron Jones (72.3 vs. 51.5)
• QB Joe Burrow (79.8 vs. 56.8)
• RB Nick Chubb (119.0 vs. 88.2)

This is again somewhat similar to the findings from ESPN, apart from the hefty premium on some guys like Montgomery and Jones who usually go in the seventh or eighth round in best-ball and high-stakes drafts. The top passing QBs tend to be drastically overpriced, making dual threats the relatively better values. Fantasy gamers on ESPN and Yahoo tend to put a premium on phenomenal real-life players that have one or more shortcomings in terms of fantasy value (lack of rushing stats for QBs, lack of receptions for top RBs, rehab from injuries, etc., etc.).

Yahoo ADP Comparison Grid

Exploiting Sleeper's Ranks

 Sleeper, like Yahoo, seems to update default rankings based on ADP from the actual drafts. However, Sleeper's default is PPR rather than half PPR, so we'll go back to using Drafters as the comparison site from best ball. The chart at the bottom compares ADPs from Sleeper to an average of ADPs from Drafters (best ball) and NFC (high stakes).        

Best Sleeper Values

• RB Bijan Robinson (5.4 vs. 7.9)
• WR Nico Collins (20.3 vs. 28.9)
• WR Cooper Kupp (28.6 vs. 41.8)
• WR Chris Godwin (61.4 vs. 77.7)
• WR Calvin Ridley (62.0 vs. 81.9)
• WR Rashee Rice (63.1 vs. 82.2)
• RB Jaylen Warren (85.4 vs. 97.4)
• TE Jake Ferguson (85.5 vs. 89.3)
• QB Jayden Daniels (101.2 vs. 113.3)
• RB Chase Brown (107.7 vs. 123.1)
• WR Joshua Palmer (116.4 vs. 140.6)
• QB Trevor Lawrence (117.2 vs. 125.0)

The first big thing to make note of is that Sleeper ADPs aren't all that different from those in best-ball and high-stakes leagues. There are still gaps, and we still have the trend of WRs generally going later than they probably should, but it's not to nearly the same extent as on Yahoo and ESPN. Also, the rookie hatred on Yahoo/ESPN isn't present on Sleeper... which might partially be because Sleeper is a popular dynasty platform and thus has more gamers with strong knowledge of the incoming rookies.

A lot of the top values are the same guys we mentioned for ESPN and Yahoo, only they go a round or two later than on best-ball sites, not 3-4 rounds later. This probably means that some drafts will look similar to the ones on Underdog, while others might trend more toward ESPN/Yahoo. 

Worst Sleeper Values

• RB Kyren Williams (23.6 vs. 16.0)
• WR Brandon Aiyuk (27.4 vs. 22.5)
• RB Travis Etienne (29.5 vs. 20.0)
• TE Sam LaPorta (34.0 vs. 23.4)
• QB Josh Allen (34.5 vs. 19.2)
• RB Josh Jacobs (45.1 vs. 26.1)
• RB Rachaad White (49.3 vs. 39.1)
• RB Kenneth Walker (61.4 vs. 49.4)
• TE George Kittle (76.2 vs. 62.3)
• TE Brock Bowers (101.1 vs. 80.7)
• RB Nick Chubb (124.5 vs. 89.6)
• TE Dalton Schultz (133.8 vs. 113.4)
• TE T.J. Hockenson (143.8 vs. 111.6)

As much as I love Jacobs at his fifth-round ADP on best-ball sites, my interest level is zero when he's going Round 3. Another interesting name here is Aiyuk, who goes against the positional trends for reasons mostly beyond my understanding. It does seem Sleeper ADP is a bit slower to update compared to the other sites, or perhaps it uses a much longer timeline rather than data from only the past few days or 1-2 weeks. 

Whatever the case, players that recently saw their value decline (Aiyuk, Jordan Addison and DeAndre Hopkins) haven't yet dropped much in the ADP listed on Sleeper. Keep that in mind as injuries mount this summer; we can't assume it'll be reflected in the ADP we see when drafting on Sleeper.

The last thing I'll mention about Sleeper is that TEs tend to be expensive, relative to not only best ball and high-stakes leagues but also Yahoo and ESPN. It's not a massively strong trend like the RB inflation on Yahoo/ESPN, but it means the exceptions (like Jake Ferguson) are especially worth making note of and then targeting in drafts. If George Kittle goes at the 5/6 turn and Brock Bowers in the seventh round, it'll feel like a massive win to get Ferguson in Round 8 — a realistic scenario according to their ADPs on Sleeper.

Sleeper ADP Comparison Grid