2022 NFL Offseason Guide: NFC East

This is Part III of an eight-article series that will provide a bird's eye view of where each team stands at the start of the offseason, looking at cap space, free agents, potential cap casualties and draft capital. We can't predict the future to perfection, but it helps to know this kind of stuff if you're drafting best-ball teams or making dynasty trades in February and early March before free agency begins.

On Monday, we covered the NFC West.

Tuesday, it was the NFC North.

Now we'll visit the NFC East, where only one of four teams is certain it has a franchise QB. The Eagles hope Jalen Hurts will become a second, while the Giants appear ready to give Daniel Jones one last shot, and the Commanders figure to bring in someone new to replace late-season-flameout Taylor Heinicke.

For Washington and New York, you have to squint to see much upside for 2022. For Dallas, it's already there on the roster, with coaching and consistency the biggest issues. 

But overall, the Eagles are the team to really watch this offseason, with possibilities including a big trade for a QB like Aaron Rodgers or a pricey signing like Allen Robinson or Chris Godwin at wide receiver. Such uncertainty leaves us with a wide range of 2022 outcomes for players currently on the roster, including Hurts, WR DeVonta Smith and RB Miles Sanders.

Dallas Cowboys

Cap Space: -$24.9 million (30th)

Potential Cap Casualties: WR Amari Cooper, K Greg Zuerlein, TE Blake Jarwin, DE Demarcus Lawrence

Detailed Cap Sheet: https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/dallas-cowboys/

The Cowboys have plenty of big contracts, but only Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott have considerable guarantees for 2022. Of course, Elliott is the one you'd want to get rid of it, but it won't happen any sooner than next offseason without a trade, seeing as his $12.4 million salary for the upcoming year is fully guaranteed.

Cooper, on the other hand, has no guarantees on his $20 million base salary, and the Cowboys can add $16/$18 million in cap space if he's traded or released this offseason. More likely, they'll free up a slightly lesser amount by converting most of his base salary into bonus money.

Lawrence is the big name who's more likely to leave, as he hasn't sniffed double-digit snacks since 2018 and now has a non-guaranteed $19 million base salary in the final year of his contract. 

Jarwin isn't a big name and doesn't have a huge salary, but he could be sent packing if he doesn't accept a pay cut, with the Cowboys able to free up nearly $5 million in cap space by declaring him a post-June 1 release. Jarwin has played nine games in two seasons since signing an extension, while teammate Dalton Schultz has emerged as a top-10 TE. Even if they lose Schultz this spring (see below), it wouldn't be wise to bring Jarwin back at his scheduled price.

My guess is that the Cowboys move on from Lawrence and Jarwin, then create additional cap space via renegotiations and extensions with star players like Prescott, Tyron Smith, Zack Martin and La'El Collins. 

Key Free Agents: TE Dalton Schultz, WR Michael Gallup, WR Cedrick Wilson, S Jayron Kearse, S Damontae Kazee, LG Connor Williams, DE Randy Gregory, DE Dorance Armstrong, LB Leighton Vander Esch, LB/S Keanu Neal, S Malik Hooker

Draft Capital: 1st (24), 2nd (56), 3rd (88), 4th (127), 5th (166), 5th (175), 6th (201)

Six members of the Cowboys' 2018 draft class played at least 40 percent of snaps on one side of the ball in 2021. With all six now hitting free agency — and joined by Kearse, Kazee, Gregory, Neal and Hooker —  the Cowboys certainly have a ton of snaps to replace.

However, it's mostly the lower-quality starters on their roster, and even two of the better guys (Gallup, Williams) have been overshadowed by teammates at the same position. That's not to totally dismiss the situation here, but it's mostly the kind of guys the Cowboys should be able to keep or replace, assuming they're willing to renegotiate a bunch of those veteran contracts mentioned above. (Hint: They are. Jerry Jones isn't known for patience, and certainly not with a roster this talented.)

The (Way-Too-Early) Verdict: It's a top-five roster in talent, even with a deep class of impending free agents. The potential Schultz/Gallup departures are key from a fantasy standpoint, potentially narrowing the Dallas passing-game tree. The Cowboys should make a strong push to keep Schultz, while Gallup is more of a question mark, and no lock to contribute early in 2022 after just recently having ACL surgery. 

Wilson could be the new No. 3 receiver on a more permanent basis, though he himself is a free agent. If nothing else, it's a good setup for Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb to have big years.

New York Giants

Cap Space: -$23.3 million (29th)

Potential Cap Casualties: WR Sterling Shepard, TE Kyle Rudolph, RB Devontae Booker, LB Blake Martinez, S Riley Dixon

Detailed Cap Sheet: https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/new-york-giants/

Depending on the timing and use of June 1 designations, Big Blue can clear up to $27 million in cap space by cutting the five guys listed above. That'd still leave the Giants barely under the limit, needing to create more space via renegotiations with CB James Bradberry ($21.9 million cap hit), DE Leonard Williams ($27.3 million), CB Adoree' Jackson ($15.3 million) and WR Kenny Golladay ($21.2 million), among others.

For the skill-position players listed above... the Giants can clear $5 million with Rudolph's release and $8.5 million with Shepard's release (if it's designated post-June 1 or happens after June 1), but only $2.1 million if Booker is cut. 

Key Free Agents: TE Evan Engram, S Jabrill Peppers, OT Nate Solder, RG Will Hernandez, C Billy Price, LG Matt Skura, DL Austin Johnson, OLB Lorenzo Carter, LB Reggie Ragland, LB Jaylon Smith, QB Mike Glennon, WR John Ross

Draft Capital: 1st (5), 1st (7), 2nd (36), 3rd (67), 3rd (81), 4th (110), 5th (146), 5th (172), 6th (180)

The Giant don't lack for impending free agents, but it's not clear if there's even a league-average NFL starter among the bunch (Maybe Peppers, who suffered an ACL tear in October). Replacing most of these guys with rookie would be a good thing, and the Giants have the draft picks to do it, holding extra selections in the first round (seventh overall) and the third (81st).

The (Way-Too-Early) Verdict: The Giants have some overpaid players, but also more talent on the roster than last year's ugly results suggest. And while more than 60 percent of their O-line snaps are headed to free agency, it was a lousy line in the first place and they have plenty of draft picks to address it. 

Personally, I don't buy any hype about a new coaching staff and front office making a franchise QB out of Daniel Jones, but things should at least be better than last season, and they do have a realistic path to putting a solid group of guys around him, especially if Golladay and Kadarius Toney can actually stay healthy. 

As for Saquon Barkley... I'll probably wait til summer to talk myself into him again.

Philadelphia Eagles

Cap Space: $12.9 million (14th)

Potential Cap Casualties: OG Isaac Seumalo, K Jake Elliott

Detailed Cap Sheet: https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/philadelphia-eagles/

The Eagles don't have many well-paid veterans who are likely to be released, but they do have candidates for retirement, and perhaps trade. That creates cap space in nearly every case, yet also leaves dead money behind (e.g. recently retired OG Brandon Brooks will still account for nearly $16 million in cap charge between 2022-23, per OTC's Jason Fitzgerald).

Here are some of the 30-somethings on Philly's roster, with age and 2022 cap hits listed in parentheses: CB Darius Slay (31, $22.0 Million), RT Lane Johnson (31, $15.8 million), C Jason Kelce (34, $6.0 million), DE Brandon Graham (33, $9.4 million).

Key Free Agents: CB Steven Nelson, S Rodney McLeod, S Anthony Harris, DE Derek Barnett, RB Jordan Howard, RB Boston Scott (RFA), WR Greg Ward (RFA), LB Alex Singleton (RFA)

Draft Capital: 1st (15), 1st (16), 1st (19), 2nd (51), 3rd (83), 4th (122), 5th (153), 5th (161), 5th (165), 6th (192), 6th (205)

The Eagles have four defensive starters headed for unrestricted free agency, plus two backup D-linemen and then starting LB Alex Singleton as a restricted free agent. They can keep the group together if they do some of the cap shuffling mentioned above, or they can use the draft and free agency to rebuild their secondary behind Darius Slay. The latter wouldn't be a bad idea, considering Nelson, Harris and McLeod are all 29 or older.

For fantasy, we'll be more interested in the backfield, with Howard an unrestricted free agent and Scott a restricted one. The Eagles could bring back both at minimal cost, and combine them with Miles Sanders (one year remaining on contract) and Kenneth Gainwell (three years) for a rerun of the 2021 plan. Or, they could try to find an upgrade, perhaps in Round 2 or 3 of the draft (after they use the trio of first-round picks to address other positions).

The (Way-Too-Early) Verdict: Eagles GM Howie Roseman said in mid-January that QB Jalen Hurts has shown enough to keep the starting job. That's probably fair, given that he reached the playoffs and scored 26 total TDs in 15 games without a ton of help from his WR group, but it doesn't necessarily mean Roseman won't explore trades for Russell Wilson or Deshaun Watson.

The more likely outcome is another year of Hurts and Gardner Minshew at QB, banking on internal development from those guys and their young pass catchers (TE Dallas Goedert and WRs DeVonta Smith, Quez Watkins and Jalen Reagor). While they should be set with Goedert at tight end, Philadelphia is a reasonable landing spot for some of the better RBs and WRs in the upcoming draft. Nick Sirianni referred to Watkins as his No. 2 receiver at the end of the season, but he might prefer pushing him back to No. 3 (and Reagor to No. 4) if the Eagles can find someone better.

Smith and Goedert are the surefire starters for 2022, while things are more tenuous for Miles Sanders and especially Watkins, given the wealth of draft picks and not-too-terrible cap situation. 

Washington Commanders

Cap Space: $27 million (10th)

Potential Cap Casualties: S/LB Landon Collins, DT Matt Ioannidis, G Wes Schweitzer, G Ereck Flowers

Detailed Cap Sheet: https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/washington-commanders/

Washington can clear another $22 million by releasing the former Giants, Collins and Flowers, though both played well down the stretch last season. Ioannidis and Schweitzer are quality backups, but they can be released any time to ad $6.9 million and $4.8 million, respectively.

In other words, Dan Snyder should have plenty of cap space to mingle in free agency, with only four Washington players scheduled for hits above $10 million in 2022 (Collins, CB Kendall Fuller, CB William Jackson, WR Curtis Samuel*).

*Samuel's 2022 base salary ($8.5 million) is fully guaranteed, in case you were wondering, i.e., there's no incentive to release him until next offseason.

Key Free Agents: RB J.D. McKissic, S Bobby McCain, RG Brandon Scherff, OT Cornelius Lucas, TE Ricky-Seals-Jones, WR Adam Humphries, WR DeAndre Carter, WR Cam Sims

Draft Capital: 1st (11), 2nd (42), 3rd (73), 4th (111), 6th (187), 7th (228)

McKissic's departure, if it happens, could open up more chances for Antonio Gibson on passing downs, though Washington mostly used other guys in those situations (like the legendary Wendell Smallwood) even with JDM out for the last part of 2021. For real-life value, not fantasy, Scherff and McCain are the key guys here, and Washington has plenty of cap space to keep or replace them.

The (Way-Too-Early) Verdict: The football team formerly known as Football Team commands neither respect nor fear, and while that isn't likely to change in 2022, they at least have a decent cap situation and still hold each of their first four draft picks. Apart from the obvious weakness at QB, they should probably add a pass catcher (or two) after struggling through another year with little behind Terry McLaurin. 

Samuel was a free-agent bust, Dyami Brown a complete non-factor, and TE Logan Thomas suffered a torn ACL. All three should still be in Washington, but none can be counted on for Week 1 production.