College Football Picks: USC vs Illinois Best Bets
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The No. 21 USC Trojans (4-0) will make the 2,000-mile journey to Champaign, where they'll face No. 25 Illinois (3-1) in a critical Big Ten matchup for both teams. The Illini are licking their wounds after a 63-10 beatdown by Indiana, while USC bested a Michigan State team that scored a late touchdown to make the 45-31 score seem like a slimmer victory. While the Illini need to generate their own momentum to recover from last week's loss, it could be a tall order against a USC offense that's firing on all cylinders.
USC vs Illinois Betting Odds for Week 5
Spread: USC -6.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Illinois +7.0 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: Over 60.5 (BetMGM), Under 61 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Moneyline: USC -245 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Illinois +210 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The spread was just 1.5 points at opening, but the Illinois loss sent massive amounts of cash to USC, driving the spread to as high as seven points. We were still able to identify a spread of 6.5 points for some books, which will come into play when we make our selection. The total and Moneyline have seen little movement throughout the week.
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USC vs Illinois Betting Picks for Week 5
The 63-10 loss to Indiana was the worst defeat Bret Bielema has suffered as the Illinois head coach. One statistic that immediately stands out was Indiana's success at getting to Luke Altmyer. The Illini's offensive line allowed seven sacks, and they'll now face a USC squad that ranks near the top of the FBS in sacks. The Trojans aren't the best at covering passes that get through, which is one positive indicator for Illinois. If the Illini are to have a chance, they need to also rev up the ground game against a USC defense that allows a little over three yards per carry.
While you can draw some similarities to Indiana and USC's defense, one can argue that USC's FBS-leading offense is significantly more powerful than what Indiana can generate, and that's bad news for the home team. USC has allowed some breakaway plays to weaker opponents this season, so the Illinois offense will need to find a few of them and also win the turnover margin.
There are numerous factors working against Illinois this week. They have a banged-up secondary, a stalled run game, and a severe case of low morale after getting destroyed by Indiana. If the loss was a month ago, the team would have had time to address issues and recover. A tough opponent like USC is the worst-case scenario for a team that needs to regain its confidence.
USC vs Illinois Expert Pick: USC -6.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Illinois vs USC Predictions for Week 5
Jayden Maiava will once again be key to a USC victory, and few quarterbacks have been more effective in the FBS. He threw for three touchdowns last week, bringing his passing TD total to nine while also going interception-free so far this season. He's also a rushing threat in the red zone with four rushing touchdowns to his credit. The running game is in good hands with Waymond Jordan (443 yards and 2 TD) and Eli Sanders (250 yards and 1 TD). Makai Lemon exploded with eight catches for 127 yards and a touchdown without Ja'Kobi Lane available. Lane's status is currently questionable, but his imposing 6-4 presence will be an excellent benefit for the Trojans if he's available.
Altmyer's numbers share some similarities to Maiava's totals, as both have nine passing touchdowns and zero interceptions this season. He's had very little success as a runner in his career, so the Trojans won't need to waste a linebacker scouting him as an out-of-pocket threat. In the backfield, Kaden Feagin seems to have picked up primary duties at running back after Aidan Laughery's injury. Laughery was available last week but didn't play. Hank Beatty (322 yards and a touchdown) is one of Luke Altmyer's favorite targets, but he is dealing with a shoulder injury. Expect Collin Dixon to get more looks if Beatty's injury poses a problem.
USC has traditionally been a bit slow out of the gate under Lincoln Riley's system, so a field goal or touchdown by Illinois early wouldn't be a surprise. USC will be able to answer quickly, eventually force a couple of stalled drives and gain the scoring advantage for the rest of the game. Many are taking the Over in this game, but I think the travel day and early start may result in a sleepier total for the Trojans.
USC 35, Illinois 17
