College Football Picks: Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh Best Bets
A pair of 7-2 teams square off in a high-stakes matchup in Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh. The Irish are running hot, winners of seven straight, but are just 4-5 ATS. The over in their games is 5-4, but started 4-0 and now has gone under at a 4-1 clip since. The Panthers are 7-2 ATS, but 1-1 as an underdog, as they won straight up at Florida State with a now puzzling (+10.5) number. The over is also 7-2 in Pittsburgh's outings.
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Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh Betting Odds for Week 12
Spread: Notre Dame -12.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Pittsburgh +12.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: Over 53.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Under 54.5 (BetMGM)
Moneyline: Notre Dame -450 (BetMGM); Pittsburgh +370 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
We've some pretty steady movement on both the spread and the total, which is interesting if you look at the season-long betting trends for these two programs. The spread opened at (-10.0) and has now risen nearly three points to its current number. The total opened at 57.5, moving four points down at FanDuel, though that 53.5 number appears to have been a bit more universal than it is Friday afternoon, as other books have it back up a point.
The moneyline is something I'm largely ignoring. There's obviously been movement given the way the spread has gone. But I find the Irish to be vulnerable enough not to include them in a larger moneyline parlay. With Pittsburgh, I don't like them as a live underdog, I think as we'll see where we land below, but when you're getting nearly two touchdowns, the only reason to risk the moneyline to me would be something like a half or quarter unit while playing the full unit on the spread.
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Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh Betting Picks for Week 12
Pittsburgh is coming out of a bye, and the extra time off seems crucial, as they'll get RB Desmond Reid back. While they've won some without him, it's worth noting he was injured in their loss to West Virginia and didn't play in their loss to Louisville the following week. His rushing yard are down, but he's a major weapon in the passing game, so this seems like a huge boost. Also worth noting, Notre Dame kicker Noah Burnette is out, and backup Erik Schmidt is 0-for-2 on field goals
Pitt is one of the most pass-happy teams, ranking 11th with 302.6 ypg and 35th in attempts, though failing to find balance, ranking 108th in rushing yards and 97th in attempts. QB Mason Heintschel should find success against the Irish, whose 88th-ranked pass defense is skewed by the 22 yards they allowed against Navy last week. They've allowed three 300-yard games already. Pittsburgh's pass defense is worse, but their run defense has been elite, ranking third nationally, allowing 80.9 ypg and just 2.4 ypc. The Irish offense is balanced, but this will be the telling tale of the game. Does Notre Dame dominate up front, keep the clock moving, and limit the Panthers' offensive chances, or does Pitt hold up on the defensive line and force the Irish to pass frequently, and this game turns into a shootout?
These two rank sixth and ninth in points per game, with Pitt at 39.7 and Notre Dame at 38.7, which, to me, makes the line movement on the total puzzling. Pitt has also allowed 30+ four times, and I don't find their schedule to be littered with high-powered offenses. I think my preferred play is a single-game parlay moving Pitt to +17.5, or the Irish to -6.5, then pairing it with an over as low as you can go for the odds of your liking. 45.5 gets you to +108 at FanDuel. But for a single play, give me the over with at least one team reaching the 30s
Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh Expert Pick: Over 53.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook
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Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh Predictions for Week 12
For as great as Pitt's run defense has been all season, it's not been something they've shown in all nine games. West Virginia got them for 174 yards, Florida State for 170 and North Carolina State for 161. Notre Dame is averaging 5.3 ypc, has 26 rushing touchdowns, and its season-low came in Week 1 at Miami, where it rushed for only 93 yards. They've topped 200 yards five times since then and 300 yards once. Something clearly has to give.
I think Pitt will hold up well enough up front to not let the Irish just run through them, which gets us into a bit more of a shootout/back-and-forth type game that should be super entertaining. One thing that hasn't been mentioned yet, while the Irish have a leaky secondary, they have 16 interceptions, the third most in the nation. Given the volume of Pittsburgh's passing game, I look for one mistake by Heintschel to be a game-breaker. Pair that with timely throws from CJ Carr and solid work from Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, and the Irish win.
Notre Dame 35 - Pittsburgh 24
Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh Player Props for Saturday, November 15
Jeremiyah Love Over 0.5 Touchdowns (Underdog)
This seems like something you play anywhere it's found. Love has 13 touchdowns on the season and has scored in every game since their opener. The number is at 1.5 at most other spots, and it's only a 0.64 multiplier, so you may need three legs instead of two for this to be truly beneficial. But it's the safest play available.
Malachi Fields Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (Underdog)
Fields has been over this number six times and hit 44 in one more. He's averaging 19.9 yards per catch, so we may only need two catches for this to hit. He should have more opportunities too if Pitt remains competitive, or they find a way to slow down Love, which gives multiple game script possibilities towards success.
Keep an eye out for over 0.5 INTs on Heintschel and possibly some scoring unders on Schmidt. I believe Notre Dame won't attempt many field goals but rather fourth-down tries, possibly limiting Schmidt to just PATs.
