This article is part of our CFL Picks series.
CFL Betting: CFL Bets and Props for Week 5
We have an intriguing pair of games to focus on for our CFL bets this week, as there is a larger-than-normal spread at play in one and a particularly high total in another. I break down my picks for the two weekend games below.
Stampeders vs Alouettes Best Bets (Saturday, July 6, 7:30 p.m. ET)
The defending-champion Alouettes have undoubtedly earned respect of the first four weeks of the season, going 4-0 while posting a standout, league-best +54 point differential. Montreal has seen veteran signal-caller Cody Fajardo look in total command of the offense the majority of the time, and he's done it without the benefit of a viable ground attack.
However, the Stampeders have made some early noise in their own right, going 2-1 while getting some solid QB play from Jake Maier as well. The young veteran has completed 73.5 percent of his passes while generating a 5:2 TD:INT through three games, taking advantage of a deep group of pass-catching weapons that includes veterans Reggie Begelton and Marken Michel and younger, promising targets such as Cole Tucker and Tyson Philpot.
Perhaps just as important, Maier has the benefit of a talented lead back in Dedrick Mills, who's done an impressive job replacing Ka'Deem Carey thus far after the latter's departure to the Argonauts in the offseason. Unfortunately, Mills has been declared out for Saturday due to an oblique injury, but Peyton Logan, who's flashed similar explosiveness in his opportunities over the last couple of seasons, will be available to help fill the void alongside B.J. Emmons.
On the other side of the ball, it's worth noting the Stamps' defense has been particularly adept against opposing passing attacks, allowing a league-low 64.4 percent completion rate and tying with the Lions for the fewest completions of 30+ yards allowed.
Despite Calgary's encouraging start, oddsmakers clearly seem to view the Alouettes as clear favorites, the largest of the Week 5 slate by far. However, the Stampeders seemingly have a complete enough offense to keep a reasonable pace with the Alouettes, and Montreal's spotty running blocking could represent a big reprieve for a Stamps defense that has had some struggles against the run.
With such a large number at play, I'm in the camp of Calgary being competitive enough to cover it.
CFL Picks for Stampeders vs Alouettes
- Stampeders +9.5 (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Lions vs Tiger-Cats Best Bets (Sunday, July 7, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Two teams with an abundance of high-powered offensive weaponry in the Lions and Tiger-Cats get together to close out the CFL slate in a game that sees Hamilton still in search of its first win.
The Ti-Cats have had repeated close calls, and while they don't yet have a win to show for their troubles, they've managed to compile an impressive 24 points per game while scoring the third-most touchdowns (10) through four weeks. Veteran quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell has been prolific, throwing for 1,297 yards while tying Fajardo for most touchdown passes (eight) through the first four games.
Mitchell has benefited from a talented cast of pass catchers that include veterans Tim White and Steven Dunbar, as well as the ascendant Shemar Bridges and Kiondre Smith. Meanwhile, versatile running back James Butler, who missed Week 4 with a head injury, practiced in full Thursday and appears set to return this week.
Naturally, the Lions can counter the Tiger-Cats player for player, even without star receiver Keon Hatcher (IR-Achilles). Quarterback Vernon Adams is the only passer in the league with more yards through the air than Mitchell, posting 1,369 passing yards and a 7:1 TD:INT through his first four contests. William Stanback has proven a solid fit in the backfield early in his Lions career after winning a Grey Cup with the Alouettes in 2023, and the likes of Alexander Hollins, Justin McInnis and Jevon Cottoy have stepped up in Hatcher's absence.
Interestingly, Hatcher has been able to practice in full the first two days of the Lions' practice week, while Hollins has been limited by a hamstring injury. Therefore, we could see the two swap spots in terms of their active status this week, but the outlook for B.C.'s high-powered offense remains bright against a Tiger-Cats defense that's allowed 281.3 passing yards per game and a CFL-high 97 completions.
Given the offensive talent on either side and the aggressive mindset each team should have, I'm in the camp of the Over.
CFL Picks for Tiger-Cats vs Redblacks
- Over 52.5 points (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
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CFL Week 5 Best Bets Recap
- Stampeders +9.5 (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Lions-Tiger-Cats Over 52.5 points (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
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