This article is part of our College Hoops Barometer series.
On the eve of Selection Sunday, we'll take a look at the bubble teams vying for a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Who's in, who's on the fringe, and who's got some work left to do? Of course, all of this is subject to change as the conference tournaments begin in earnest. Beware the dreaded bid stealers. Conference tournament winners that otherwise would have not made the Big Dance on resume alone will shrink the bubble. As always, the article simply cannot include every team on the bubble, so the list is not meant to be all-encompassing.
We'll be using a variety of measurements, including conference record, overall record, and the good ol' eye test to hash out which teams are worthy, and which teams should be left out in the cold. As a refresher, the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) is used, which takes into account a variety of factors, including individual game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses. In addition, wins (and losses) are now separated into Quadrants, depending on the caliber of opponent as well as the location of wins. To simplify, Quadrant 1 wins are the most valuable and come against the strongest competition. Auburn currently has the most Quadrant 1 wins with 15. By contrast, Quadrant 4 losses are the worst result, coming against inferior squads. Most teams have wins and losses in at least three quadrants, so it is important to not just look at Quadrant 1 wins, though those are certainly most likely to help a school's cause.
What matters more, big wins or bad losses? How important is how a team is playing at the time of Selection Sunday? Should a sub-.500 conference record automatically preclude your squad from inclusion in the NCAA Tournament? How about a .500-record overall? The state of college basketball in terms of these "Super" Conferences will make the selection process even more interesting, as several teams with sub-.500 conference records may gain entry into the Big Dance. We'll tackle these queries and more in the annual Bubble Edition of the College Hoops Barometer.
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NCAA TOURNAMENT STATUS LOOKING GOOD - UPGRADE
Arkansas – The NET rating for Arkansas is an impressive 39, as coach John Calipari's team has been tested in the juggernaut that is the SEC. Five Quadrant I wins is decent, though the strength of schedule in conference action will help the cause for the Hogs. Arkansas is just 5-9 in Quadrant I contests, but wins include Mizzou, Kentucky, Mississippi State and Michigan, who were all ranked at the time of the matchups. Fortunately, Arkansas does not have any Quadrant III or Quadrant IV, though a 3-3 record in Quadrant II is not exactly mind-blowing. The Hogs have won four of their last five contests, though the one loss came against a South Carolina squad that has just two wins in the SEC. Arkansas is 8-10 in conference play, and as many as 14 schools in the SEC believe they have a shot at the big dance. Arkansas may be closer to the bubble than people expect, but the Razorbacks look like they will be given the benefit of the doubt for keeping pace in an elite conference.
Baylor – The fact that Baylor is even in this conversation is surprising, but the talent on paper only translated to an uneven 2024-2025 campaign. The Bears are 10-10 in the Big 12, including an ugly loss to Colorado; the Buffs sit in last place in the conference. The Big 12 is not the SEC, but certainly the conference has been no slouch, as eight squads have a legitimate argument at inclusion in the NCAA Tournament. The Bears will ultimately get rewarded for challenging themselves in the non-conference slate. A head-to-head win versus above-referenced Arkansas should help, and the early season win over St. John's has looked better and better as the season has worn on. Certainly, losses against Gonzaga, Tennessee and Connecticut will not be held against them. With an 18-13 overall record, five Quadrant I wins and a NET Rating of 33, it would be a shock if Baylor is not a member of the final field.
Utah State – With a NET rating of 36, the Aggies might be feeling fairly comfortable with their position. However, Utah State has just two Quadrant I wins. The overall record of 25-6 is impressive, though, as is the fact that they have not lost a single Quadrant III or Quadrant IV tilt. The Aggies also have a signature win over Saint Mary's. The lack of Quadrant I contests in general (just five) could hurt the Aggies, though they did go 7-3 in Quadrant II clashes. A 15-5 conference record in a competitive Mountain West with no bad losses and a couple of big wins should be enough, but Boise State and Colorado State (more on them below) could throw a wrench into Utah State's March plans.
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ON THE BUBBLE - CHECK STATUS
North Carolina – There's a reason coach Hubert Davis is on the hot seat. The Tar Heels have been inconsistent at best this season and are in real danger of missing the Big Dance for the second time in three seasons. To put that in perspective, prior to 2023, UNC had missed the NCAA Tournament just three times in the entire 21st century. A truly dismal season for the ACC as a whole has not helped matters; UNC shockingly has just one Quadrant I victory, and is an unsightly 1-11 in Quadrant I contests. A 7-0 mark in Quadrant II is helpful, though, and a 13-7 conference record is not too shabby. The Heels had a six-game winning streak snapped by rival Duke, which is certainly understandable. North Carolina has a NET Rating of 40 despite the horrific record in Quadrant I outings. UNC still likely has some work to do in the ACC Tournament; a big win or two could put the Tar Heels over the top, while an ugly loss could spell doom for UNC – as well as its head coach. They at least opened up with a win over Notre Dame on Wednesday, and will look to keep it rolling against Wake Forest on Thursday (though another win might still not be enough).
Oklahoma – The Sooners have a conference record of 6-12, yet are still in the conversation for inclusion in the field of 68 with a NET of 47. That should tell you all you need to know about the strength of the SEC. The Sooners have six Quadrant I wins, an extremely high number for a team on the bubble. Oklahoma has a 12-game winning streak, a five-game losing streak and a separate four-game losing streak, showcasing the squad's highs, lows and maddening inconsistency. As with Arkansas above, they will get the benefit of the doubt, and non-conference wins over Arizona, Michigan and surging Louisville should only help their cause. A lot could change in a short time, but for now, the Sooners' resume may actually be good enough as is.
Ohio State – The Big Ten could have as many as 10 teams in the Big Dance, and the competition in-conference has been stout. The Buckeyes have a stellar NET (37) but a below-.500 conference record (9-11) and a mediocre overall record (17-14) screams mediocrity. The good news for the Buckeyes is that there are no bad losses in the form of the Quadrant III or IV defeats, and six Quadrant I wins like Oklahoma above. Their signature win came against Purdue, but they also beat Kentucky and fellow bubble squad Texas. If the Buckeyes get rewarded, it will likely be at the expense of a mid-major, as the scales would tip in OSU's favor due to conference strength and "valued" wins. An opening-round loss to Iowa in the Big Ten Tournament could very well spell the end of their dancing hopes, however.
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OUTSIDE LOOKING IN - DOWNGRADE
Colorado State/Boise State – I lumped these two teams together because they are in a similar predicament. Both are above-average Mountain West squads with two Quadrant III losses. The Rams have a slightly better conference record, while the Broncos have one more Quadrant I win. The result of the Mountain West Conference Tournament could shake up the bubble. Boise State has a NET rating of 45, while Colorado State is currently 54. A win over New Mexico has likely boosted Boise State's NET rating a touch, but the Broncos lost twice to the Rams. These two teams are neck and neck, and it would be surprising if both made the tourney.
Wake Forest – In a twist of fate, the Demon Deacons face above-mentioned North Carolina in the ACC Tournament on Thursday. The loser of that contest is going to have a difficult time making a case for entry into the big dance. Wake is also 13-7 in the conference. As compared to other bubble squads, the Demon Deacons have somewhat of a unique resume. Wake has two Quadrant I triumphs but two Quadrant III defeats. Helping the cause is six Quadrant II victories, but the weak conference and lack of signature wins may ultimately be too much to overcome. The NET rating of 68 shows a victory over the Tar Heels is a must, and even then, the Demon Deacons may still need to make some additional noise to gain access to March Madness.
Texas – Just how far will conference supremacy extend? Like Oklahoma above, the Longhorns finished 6-12 in the best conference in the land. A victory over Vanderbilt in the opening round of the SEC Tournament can only help, plus Texas has five Quadrant I victories. Texas also has a favorable NET (42) given its SEC status, and no bad losses. Texas split the season series with Oklahoma, but did lose to above-referenced Ohio State. The problem with so many similar squads is that you're essentially splitting hairs when all is said and done. I do not envy the job of the committee this year.
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