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After an encouraging rookie season, Duarte took more than a few steps back during the 2022-23 campaign, finishing just inside the top 350 in nine-category leagues. His numbers fell across the board, ending with averages of 7.9 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.5 steals and 1.2 three-pointers. With Bennedict Mathurin asserting himself as their shooting guard of Indiana's future, Duarte was traded to Sacramento during the offseason. Given the Kings are a team looking to go deep into the playoffs, Duarte could find himself playing even fewer minutes than last season. Based on what we saw during his sophomore run, it could be a while before we see him in a meaningful role.
Duarte started his career scorching hot. Indiana dealt with injuries out of the gate, forcing the rookie into a starting role and he didn't disappoint. He scored in double digits in his first nine games, averaging 16.9 points on 44/43/92 shooting. After that, Duarte proceeded to cool off and traversed the normal ebbs and flows of a rookie season. The 13th overall pick averaged 13.1 points on 43/37/80 shooting, 4.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.0 steals in 28.0 minutes on the season. He showed an encouraging ability to create for himself off the dribble and wasn't reliant on catch-and-shoot jumpers. His shot diet consisted of more long twos (17 percent of his attempts) than is ideal, but he hit them at a solid 43 percent clip. He ranked 161st in per-game fantasy production - not bad given his draft slot and role for most of the year. This season, Duarte should see more opportunities to touch and ball and make plays. The Pacers have entered a complete rebuild, and his only real competitors for minutes are Buddy Hield and rookie Bennedict Mathurin - promising in his own right. Still, there should be plenty of usage available, so Duarte should have no problem reaching and/or exceeding his minutes and use from his rookie campaign. Factor in some development, and he's probably worth taking a flier on towards the end of most standard fantasy drafts.
If you're drafting a 24-year-old in the lottery, he better contribute right away. That's the plan, anyway, for Duarte, who averaged 17.1 points on 53.2 percent shooting (42.4% 3PT) at Oregon last season. For now, Duarte will likely slot in as a backup to Malcolm Brogdon and Caris LeVert, competing with veteran T.J. McConnell for playing time. Duarte looked good during Summer League play in Las Vegas, but he may need to catch a break to earn enough minutes to achieve fantasy relevance in standard leagues as a rookie. In deeper formats, however, Duarte's NBA-readiness makes him an intriguing option on draft night.