Ozzie Albies

Albies was one of the many players who benefitted to a return of a full schedule as his level of production picked up where it left off in 2019. In fact, Albies is the only player who has hit at least 20 homers, scored at least 100 runs and swipe at least 10 bases in each of the past three full seasons. There are some risks to what Albies has been to date despite the production; his batting average has fluctuated quite a bit the past few seasons with the most recent effort being his worst yet. He is also not very accepting of walks, so his on-base percentage has been closer to .300 than .350 in most seasons. It has not hurt his ability to score runs, but should Freddie Freeman leave this winter, the runs scored could take a hit. We know he will have his opportunities given he has missed all of 12 games over the past three full seasons. Expect more of the same in 2022.

Albies entered the 2020 season coming off the best performance of his young career, but he managed to play in only 29 regular-season contests following a wrist injury. While it was obvious he was attempting to get back up to speed down the stretch, he still managed to hit .271 with six homers, 19 RBI and three stolen bases. Albies remains one of the top young exciting players in the major leagues heading into 2021, effortlessly mixing in displays of power at the plate, speed and the ability to put the ball in play. As a result, it's no surprise that he adds value across the board in most league formats, a rare combination to be found in a middle infielder. He's expected to be one of the top second basemen selected on draft day and for good reason.

Albies finished as the fifth-best 2B on our Earned Auction Value calculator behind Jonathan Villar, Ketel Marte, DJ LeMahieu and Eduardo Escobar. Albies could be the guy atop that list in 2020. He has two full seasons at the big-league level before his 23rd birthday and has shown progress in all three seasons he has spent at the big-league level. He has missed six games over the past two seasons, and has made the most of his playing time even if his stolen-base total doesn't match his speed. Fifteen steals is the new 25 steals in today's environment, and even a 47-point jump in Albies' OBP only led to two more stolen-base attempts in 2019 than he attempted in 2018. He has the luxury of being one of the pieces in a talented lineup in which Ronald Acuna Jr. has a lot of the spotlight, which somewhat diminishes how much Albies has accomplished at such a young age. There is more in the tank here.

The performance of young players after the break is often considered telling. If that’s the case, why is Albies getting a pass, despite a huge second half swoon? Albies posted a .834 OPS and 120 wRC+ before the break compared to a .624 OPS and 67 wRC+ after. His strikeout rate rose 1.5%, but that’s not enough to account for the disparity. The culprit was a 32-point dip in BABIP, fueled by a drop in hard-hit rate. Medium-hits balls carry the lowest BABIP and 60 percent of Albies' second-half contact was of that variety. Accordingly, his 14.7% first-half HR/FB plummeted to 5.6% post-break. Conveniently omitted is Albies isn’t just young, he did this as a 21-year-old sophomore. Albies' overall game remains impressive at his age, but he could be in danger of hitting lower in the Braves' order if he doesn’t get off to a fast start, depriving him of some counting stat volume. The power/speed combo is enticing, just beware it’s not risk-free.

Albies got the call to the majors on Aug. 1 and hit the ground running, flashing the well-rounded skill set that made him a top prospect in baseball. At 20 years old, the switch-hitting Albies displayed advanced plate skills, posting a .347 wOBA in 244 plate appearances. He's not an imposing presence in the batter's box at 5-foot-9, 160 pounds, but Albies has excellent bat speed and he used that to generate above-average game power (.171 ISO, 33.2 percent hard-hit rate). He also went 8-for-9 on the basepaths, and when it was all said and done, Albies was worth roughly two wins above replacement in just 57 games. Albies' ability to make consistent contact gives him a solid floor in batting average, and he runs at a time when stolen bases are on the decline league-wide. The power is just the cherry on top. He could end up being a significant bargain in drafts and auctions, even with spring helium.

Regardless of how well he has hit or how many bases he has stolen, the most impressive thing about Albies has always been his age relative to the players he is playing against. In 2014, he was a 17-year-old hitting .356 in the Appalachian League. The next year he finished fourth in the Sally League with a .310 average while being the fourth youngest player in the league. This past season he was the youngest player at Double-A, but that didn't stop him from winning the Southern League batting title by hitting .321, earning a 56-game run at Triple-A as a 19-year-old. Indeed, the word "advanced" sufficiently sums up Albies' game. The Braves chose Dansby Swanson as the shortstop of the future, meaning Albies' future is at the keystone. He will likely start 2017 with Triple-A Gwinnett -- an absurd reality for a player who turned 20 in January, but even more ridiculous is the fact that his time there may be brief.

The diminutive shortstop continued to gain acclaim in prospect circles last year, slashing .310/.368/.404 with 29 steals on 37 attempts, while posting an impressive 56:36 K:BB in 439 plate appearances as an 18-year-old with Low-A Rome. In addition to an excellent hit tool and plus speed, he also projects to be a plus defender at shortstop. These attributes will push Albies into the top-25 of most real-life prospect lists, but dynasty league owners should pump the brakes. The first knock on Albies is that he offers low single-digit home run power. The second strike against him is that he is three years away from the big leagues. His upside is that of Elvis Andrus, who has been a fine fantasy shortstop, but by no means a building block on teams that win dynasty leagues. Albies' 2015 season was cut short after he suffered a hairline fracture in his thumb in August, but he should be ready for the start of the season.

Albies, a native of Curacao, hit .364/.446/.444 with 22 stolen bases in 27 attempts in 57 games between the Gulf Coast League and the Appalachian League as a 17-year-old in 2014. The power isn't there, and his slight frame (5-foot-9, 150 pounds) doesn't lend a whole lot of hope to him developing much in time, but he has a plus hit tool and an advanced eye at the plate for his age (28:23 BB:K last season). It remains to be seen how aggressively the Braves will push him through the system, but Albies is likely several years away from reaching the majors regardless, and it's possible his future could be with another organization, with the tandem of Andrelton Simmons and Jose Peraza expected to hold down the middle-infield spots in Atlanta for years to come.