Nolan Gorman

Gorman was promoted for his MLB debut in May and had a solid rookie campaign for St. Louis with 14 home runs and a .720 OPS in 89 games. Strikeouts were an issue at times in the minors and that remained true at the big-league level with a 32.9 percent strikeout rate. His 9.0 percent walk rate and .194 ISO were solid, but he'll need to cut down on the swings and misses to have some staying power in the Cardinals' lineup. He's likely to open 2023 as a bench bat/utility player with Brendan Donovan the favorite to start at second base, but Gorman could also split playing time at designated hitter with Juan Yepez. Gorman could be the odd man out if St. Louis makes any infield/DH additions in free agency, so his fantasy outlook is limited at best to begin the campaign.

Gorman is coming off an indisputably good year in the upper levels of the minors, but he remains a tough player to value in dynasty leagues. His 26.7 K% at Double-A and 19.2 K% at Triple-A were his best rates to date above rookie ball, and his 129 wRC+ at Double-A was also his best full-season mark. Big raw power has always been the main selling point with Gorman, and he hit 25 home runs in 119 games (43 at Double-A, 76 at Triple-A) as a 21-year-old, so he is on schedule in the power department. He showed signs last season that he will probably make enough contact to be a big-league regular. However, we're still looking at a power-over-hit prospect, and given that his walk rates have typically been on the low end (6.8 BB% above Low-A) for someone with his power, he doesn't even comfortably project as a middle-of-the-order three-true outcomes type. The hope will be that he is a 30-plus homer bat who is a solid contributor in runs and RBI and isn't a batting average sinkhole, but players with that profile often take a year or two in the majors before they hit their stride. An injury to any number of players on the big-league roster could open up at-bats for Gorman, who is passable at second base and third base, and he could also get work at designated hitter. However, given the low batting average floor and lack of speed, he isn't a strong prospect to target in draft-and-hold leagues.

Gorman's mammoth raw power has been his calling card for a while, and it should get him to the big leagues. However, there are several reasons for skepticism regarding his hit tool. He will always run high K-rates, but to make matters worse, the best place to attack him is with fastballs up in the zone, which also happens to be where many young pitchers are being taught to attack hitters. Additionally, the left-handed hitter has a pull-heavy approach and figures to be shifted on with impunity in the big leagues. He is also a below-average runner, and given the warranted concerns about his hit tool, dynasty managers should be hoping for a three-category thumper who hits around .245. Unlike most high-strikeout mashers, Gorman may not be any more valuable in OBP leagues, given how aggressive he is at the dish. He was a standout at the alternate site and should spend the season at Double-A and Triple-A.

Gorman is who we thought he we thought he was. His 38-game run in the Appalachian League in 2018 threw some off the scent, but through a little over a season at Low-A and High-A, he is hitting .240 with 21 HR, a 30.9 K% and an 8.9 BB% in 619 PA. The power output may seem lower than expected -- he has at least 70-grade raw power. However, a below-average hit tool has held him back against full-season pitching. Gorman won't win any Gold Gloves at third base, but he should stick there. Speed is not a part of his game, so his bat needs to provide all of his fantasy value. A Joey Gallo type of outcome seemed feasible a year ago, but now a Franmil Reyes type of ceiling seems more apt, as Gallo at least had monster walk rates in the lower levels. Gorman won't turn 20 until May 10, so he is far from a lost cause, but he also doesn't look like a budding star.

Before the 2018 draft, Gorman was seen as the hitter with the most home run upside in the class (at least 70-grade power). There was also significant concern that he would strike out a lot against pitchers who could spin a quality breaking ball. The good and the bad proved true. Despite dealing with a minor wrist injury and being one of the youngest players in the class, his 17 home runs paced all draftees, while his 36.4 K% was the ninth-worst mark in the Midwest League (min. 100 PA). An underrated positive from his pro debut is that his defense at third base was good enough that evaluators now project him to stick there, which was an uncertainty before the draft. This puts slightly less pressure on his hit tool. Already one of the top power prospects in the minors, Gorman won't turn 19 until May, so he has plenty of time to cut down on the strikeouts. Realistic outcomes range from Josh Donaldson to Joey Gallo, depending where the strikeout rate settles.