Aaron Civale

Aaron Civale

29-Year-Old PitcherSP
Milwaukee Brewers
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Civale was traded from Cleveland to Tampa Bay for first base prospect Kyle Manzardo straight up at the deadline. His strikeout rate jumped from 19 percent to 29.3 percent and his walk rate dropped from 7.2 percent to 5.6 percent after the trade. Don't downgrade him because of his 5.36 ERA in 10 starts with the Rays. He had a 3.26 xFIP over that unlucky stretch and his 23.7 K-BB% in 45.1 innings after the trade was an elite mark. In fact it was similar to his new teammate Zach Eflin's 23.0 K-BB% on the season, and Civale happens to have almost an identical repertoire to Eflin. Perhaps that's why the Rays targeted him. Civale missed almost two months early in the season with an oblique strain and still tallied 133.1 innings, including his rehab assignment. He shouldn't have any notable workload restrictions in 2024. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#206
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $4.9 million contract with the Rays in January of 2024. Traded to the Brewers in July of 2024.
Blanks Pirates for eighth win
PMilwaukee Brewers
September 26, 2024
Civale (8-9) earned the win Thursday over the Pirates, allowing three hits and a walk over six scoreless innings. He struck out five.
ANALYSIS
It was a strong finish to the regular season for Civale, who went 6-1 with a 2.57 ERA over his final nine starts (49 innings). Overall, the right-hander posted a 4.36 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and 149:52 K:BB across a career-high 161 innings. Civale should continue to serve as Milwaukee's number-two starter behind Freddy Peralta when they open postseason play.
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Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2024 MLB Game Log
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2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
85
Last 10 Games
82
Last 5 Games
74
How many pitches does Aaron Civale generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Aaron Civale generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-2%
BAA vs LHP
2024
 
 
-2%
BAA vs RHP
2023
 
 
-1%
BAA vs LHP
2022
 
 
-7%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2022vs Left .244 771 204 55 172 40 1 28
Since 2022vs Right .248 829 159 52 188 35 0 27
2024vs Left .254 333 86 26 77 16 0 15
2024vs Right .250 356 63 26 81 15 0 14
2023vs Left .234 254 66 16 55 14 1 6
2023vs Right .237 250 50 17 54 7 0 6
2022vs Left .240 184 52 13 40 10 0 7
2022vs Right .257 223 46 9 53 13 0 7
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-19%
ERA at Home
2024
 
 
-42%
ERA at Home
2023
 
 
-46%
ERA on Road
2022
 
 
-35%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2022Home 3.80 1.14 201.1 12 11 0 9.3 2.2 1.3
Since 2022Away 4.68 1.32 179.0 8 9 0 7.8 2.9 1.3
2024Home 3.35 1.17 94.0 5 6 0 8.8 2.3 1.5
2024Away 5.78 1.49 67.0 3 3 0 7.7 3.8 1.7
2023Home 4.48 1.16 62.1 3 2 0 9.5 2.5 0.7
2023Away 2.40 1.17 60.0 4 3 0 7.5 2.4 1.1
2022Home 3.80 1.07 45.0 4 3 0 9.8 1.8 1.6
2022Away 5.88 1.29 52.0 1 3 0 8.5 2.3 1.0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Aaron Civale compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.87
 
K/9
8.3
 
BB/9
2.9
 
HR/9
1.6
 
Fastball
92.5 mph
 
ERA
4.36
 
WHIP
1.30
 
BABIP
.297
 
GB/FB
0.97
 
Left On Base
75.6%
 
Exit Velocity
81.7 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.7%
 
Spin Rate
2615 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
24.2%
 
Swinging Strike
9.3%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
Three separate injuries did a number on Civale's 2022 campaign, as a glute issue, wrist sprain and forearm tightness cost him nearly a collective three months. The results weren't pretty when he was able to pitch -- his 4.92 ERA was a career-worst mark, though a 3.86 FIP suggests he was unlucky. The upside: he had a 9.1 K/9, the highest mark of his career. Civale threw a cut fastball 34.8 percent of the time in 2022, and he supplemented it with a nasty curveball that opponents hit .124 on with a .238 slugging percentage. He also used a sinker while cutting down on four-seamers and splitters, but he may want to revisit his pitch mix given the overall results. Cody Morris could challenge Civale or Zach Plesac for a rotation spot in 2023, but the Guardians aren't brimming with major-league ready arms, so Civale should have a good chance to work as a starter if he can get back into his 2021 form.
Civale came into 2021 with a lot of hype, but ended it with more questions than answers. The young hurler re-worked his repertoire in the winter with a desire to go with more four-seamers than two-seam fastballs while adding a split-change to give him six pitches by which to attack hitters. Early on, things went well as Civale was 10-2 in his first 15 starts with a 3.32 ERA and 1.06 WHIP while holding opponents to a .226 average. A finger sprain shut him down in mid-June and kept him out until September where he closed the season 2-3 with a 5.74 ERA (6.85 FIP), 1.31 WHIP and .257 opponents' average. The fastball was particularly painful for Civale as the league slugged over .600 off both the two- and four-seam fastballs, and even the splitter had a .484 SLG against, so the transition work is by no means done. His 2022 success hinges upon that transition getting over the speed bumps.
A popular sleeper pick heading into 2020, Civale looked early on like he was headed for that breakout, posting a 2.97 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 32:3 K:BB over his first five starts spanning 34 innings. However, things took a turn for the worse and an eight-run blowup on the second-to-last day of the season capped a disappointing stretch run, bringing Civale's final ERA to 4.74. The estimators are kinder to his performance, putting his deserved ERA closer to 4.00 over his total of 12 starts. Civale does not light up the radar gun and there may not be much room for growth when it comes to strikeouts (22.1 K% last season), but he has a diverse pitch mix -- sinker, cutter, curveball, slider, changeup, four-seamer -- and good command. He pitches in a favorable division and for a team that has had success grooming its young starters. It's not a flashy skill set, but Civale is a nice staff filler with ratio upside.
Injuries to Cleveland's rotation opened the door for Civale to make his major-league debut in 2019 and he enjoyed quite a bit of success. His 92.6 mph sinking fastball doesn't overpower hitters and he does not have a true wipeout pitch, but he can change speed and command his pitches well enough to be effective. Although 2019 provided a limited sample size for the right-hander, he pitched five innings or more in nine of his 10 starts. The 24-year-old's performance will likely afford him an opportunity to compete for a starting role in 2020. Civale impressed in his first glimpse of major-league action and could be a fantasy sleeper in 2020; the low strikeout rate will understandably drive many away, but if you squint you can see a bit of Kyle Hendricks upside here. It helps that he pitches in the weak AL Central and has a top-five defense behind him.
More Fantasy News
Goes just 4.1 innings in loss
PMilwaukee Brewers
September 21, 2024
Civale (7-9) took the loss against Arizona on Saturday, allowing three runs on three hits and three walks while striking out two batters over 4.1 innings.
ANALYSIS
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Strikes out six in win
PMilwaukee Brewers
September 16, 2024
Civale (7-8) earned the win against the Phillies on Monday, allowing one run on seven hits and one walk with six strikeouts over five innings.
ANALYSIS
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Does enough for sixth win
PMilwaukee Brewers
September 11, 2024
Civale (6-8) got the win over the Giants on Tuesday, allowing two runs on three hits and a walk while striking out two over 5.1 innings.
ANALYSIS
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Fans seven in no-decision
PMilwaukee Brewers
September 3, 2024
Civale did not factor into the decision in Tuesday's 7-4 loss to St. Louis, allowing three runs on six hits and no walks over five innings. He struck out seven.
ANALYSIS
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Shines in fifth win
PMilwaukee Brewers
August 29, 2024
Civale (5-8) allowed two hits and two walks over seven scoreless innings Thursday, striking out seven to get the win over the Giants.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Chance to be non-tendered
PMilwaukee Brewers
November 1, 2024
According to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, the Brewers could non-tender Civale during the offseason.
ANALYSIS
The right-hander was acquired from Tampa Bay at the summer trade deadline and pitched well in 14 regular-season starts for Milwaukee with a 3.53 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 65:25 K:BB across 74 innings. Civale is entering his final year of arbitration eligibility and will receive a sizable raise from last season's $4.9 million salary. Even if the Brewers tender him a contract for 2025, the organization could still offload him via trade this winter.
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