This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
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New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The New York Mets take on the Philadelphia Phillies tonight in the first of a four-game series. These two teams faced off last weekend. The Phillies ended up winning two out of three games from the Mets at home. However, this series now transitions to New York where the Mets are hosting the critical four-game series. The Mets have been on an absolute tear recently and they vaulted themselves into playoff position. They are now tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the second Wild Card spot, but they own the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks, so they technically own the second Wild Card spot outright.
The Atlanta Braves are just two games back of both the Diamondbacks and Mets. The Mets still have a crucial three-game series coming up against the Braves. Whoever wins that series will own the tiebreaker between them, so this next week for the Mets will decide if they make the playoffs or not. The Phillies are in a bit of a different position with the best record in MLB. They are 91-61 and have a seven-game lead over the Mets in the National League East. They are just looking to clinch the division. They also lead the Dodgers by one game, but more importantly, they lead the Brewers by three games, to secure a first-round bye. The Phillies' magic number is also now at four, so if they win two of the games this weekend against the Mets, they will have officially clinched the National League East.
The Phillies are 52-26 at home this season but just 39-35 away from home. They are also 46-37 against teams with winning records. The Mets are 84-68 this season and have won three games in a row now after sweeping the Nationals. They are 43-34 at home and 42-41 against teams with winning records. The Phillies are 6-3 against the Mets this season with four games remaining between them.
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Luis Severino has been pitching very well lately, going 3-1 with a 2.91 ERA in his last seven starts. He is 1-0 with a 2.29 ERA in September. He is 6-2 with a 2.86 ERA at home this season. He has only faced the Phillies once this season, in his last start. He allowed three runs in six innings on the road in that start. Taijuan Walker is getting the spot start for the Phillies after he was removed from the rotation in August. He was injured for a lot of the season and has only made seven appearances since returning from the injured list (IL), but he has struggled in those outings – 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA. Those stats include three scoreless innings against the Mets in his last outing. He faced the Mets two other times this season, allowing two runs in 5.2 innings and two runs in 3.1 innings.
Interestingly enough, neither of these teams has been hitting righties too well lately. The Phillies are ranked 10th in the league in wOBA against righties the last 30 days while the Mets are ranked 20th. Both teams have had very good bullpens, though. The Phillies rank fourth in bullpen ERA the last 30 days while the Mets are seventh. Both teams have been on a roll, too, as these are two of the top three teams in the league in the last 30 days, with the other being the Tigers. The Mets are 19-8 and 9-2 at home in the last 30 days while the Phillies are 18-10 but just 8-7 on the road in the last 30 days. Both teams have been playing well but the Mets have the pitching advantage and I think they stay hot at home.
Best MLB Bet Today
Mets ML -130 vs. Phillies (BetMGM)
