This article is part of our MLB Team Previews series.
2015 Red Sox Team Preview: Acceptance
Have you heard about the five stages of grief - Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, and Acceptance? The Red Sox have been experiencing it since their September 2011 implosion. Denial came when Bobby Valentine was hired despite a toxic clubhouse; Anger from the Red Sox fans who endured that season with Bobby V; Bargaining when they became a cost-conscious operation, signing "clubhouse" guys to friendly free-agent deals and promoting home-grown talent; Depression when, for the second time in three seasons, they finished in last place in 2014; and now Acceptance. Boston accepts it's a big-market team that can afford offensive talent and compete every season.
To answer 2014's depression, a year when the Red Sox scored just 634 runs, their fewest runs in a non-labor-dispute season since 1992, upper management went all in on offense. After signing Rusney Castillo late in 2014, the club inked free agents Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval. Along with the maturation of Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts, Boston's lineup will be deeper and more formidable than last season's group. They'll replace the combined output of Grady Sizemore, Jackie Bradley, Will Middlebrooks and Jonny Gomes, a quartet that hit .207 with 11 homers and 96 RBI.
With so much money spent on offense, the Red Sox exercised cost control when it came to starting pitching. They made an effort to re-acquire Jon Lester, one of the top free-agent pitchers on the market, but fell well short of the Cubs' offer to the left-hander. Almost immediately, Boston started loading up on No. 3 starters. In the span of 24 hours, the Red Sox traded for Rick Porcello and Wade Miley while signing free agent Justin Masterson. That trio joins returnees Clay Buchholz and Joe Kelly. All five have experienced some success, but none have been staff leaders. Certainly no number one starters in the group. It's a strategy that could tax the bullpen, an area of strength for Boston in 2014. The back end of the pen is strong with Junichi Tazawa and Koji Uehara, but those middle relievers will be needed often.
Offense is down in baseball - runs scored per game fell to 4.07 per game in 2014, the fewest since 1981. Bringing a potent offense to the fight is a reaction to that. It's also been Boston's modus operandi early this century. The Red Sox accept that's who they are, and should be in 2015.
Offseason Moves
Signed free agents Hanley Ramirez (Dodgers) and Pablo Sandoval (Giants)
The Red Sox are moving on from Will Middlebrooks and aren't ready to sustain another year with a punch-less outfield. Hence, the decision to add two of the better offensive free agents available. Ramirez and Sandoval should improve Boston's anemic offense, which scored less than four runs per game. The Red Sox got little production out of third base and left field, ranking 27th in slugging from third base and next-to-last in the outfield. These two free agents, along with the addition of Rusney Castillo and the development of Mookie Betts, makes the batting order deeper.
Traded Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster for Wade Miley (Diamondbacks); traded Yoenis Cespedes for Rich Porcello (Tigers)
The additions of Hanley Ramirez and Rusney Castillo meant a surplus of outfielders, so the Red Sox parted with Cespedes to land Porcello. They also tapped into a stable of Four-A starters, trading De La Rosa and Webster to Arizona for Miley. De La Rosa and Webster have been good in the minors, but were never able to translate that success consistently against major-league hitters. Unable (or unwilling) to re-acquire Jon Lester, the Red Sox are building a rotation of middling starters with potential. Both Miley and Porcello are inning-eaters entering the primes of their careers.
Signed free agent Justin Masterson (Cardinals)
Adding to a stable of non-elite starters, the Red Sox signed Masterson, a former farmhand who achieved spotty success in Cleveland, including an All-Star selection in 2013, before landing in St. Louis for the stretch run in 2014. He'll be Boston's fifth starter and expectations are low after getting knocked around last year. Masterson said he never rehabbed a 2013 oblique injury properly and that played a role in his downfall in 2014. He's healthy entering training camp and averaged 205 innings the three seasons prior to 2014.
Traded for Anthony Varvaro (Braves); traded Anthony Ranaudo for Robbie Ross (Rangers); signed free agent Alexi Ogando (Rangers)
Somewhere in here is hopefully the answer to losing Andrew Miller and Burke Badenhop. Together those two had a 2.30 ERA in 113 innings while the pen was third with a 5.6 WAR in 2014. While Edward Mujica struggled adjusting to the American League and Craig Breslow was unable to replicate an effective 2013, it was Badenhop and Miller who held the middle of the bullpen together. Given the pedigree of the starting rotation, Boston may have to rely heavily on its middle relief corps in 2015. The Red Sox liked Ranaudo's makeup, but he was unable to fool major-league hitters, so they are hoping Ross can rebound as a full-time reliever. Varvaro has been good the last two seasons in Atlanta and was surprisingly available (designated for assignment). Ogando represents the low-risk / high-upside play, if he gets that mid-to-high 90s fastball working again.
Signed international free agent Yoan Moncada (Cuba)
The Red Sox made one more free-agent splash prior to the opening of training camp when they spent $63 million (including spending tax) to land Moncada. The 19-year-old is training with the minor leaguers and will start 2015 at one of Boston' full-season affiliates, but the Red Sox think it won't be long until he's helping at the major-league level. His body is still developing, but as of right now, Moncada will remain at second base. As he matures, a move to third base or outfield is a possibility.
Traded Will Middlebrooks for Ryan Hanigan (Padres)
Middlebrooks was never able to stay healthy, nor could he generate any sustained success when he was healthy. After three frustrating years, Boston gave up on him, feeling the need for a seasoned backstop. Hanigan should help Christian Vazquez as a knowledge base for major-league hitters. Vazquez possesses innate skills as a catcher, but learning pro hitters and strategies for calling pitch sequences against them is where Hanigan fits in Boston.
Projected Lineup (vs. RHP/LHP)
1. Mookie Betts, RF
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
3. David Ortiz, DH
4. Hanley Ramirez, LF
5. Pablo Sandoval, 3B
6. Mike Napoli, 1B
7. Rusney Castillo, CF
8. Xander Bogaerts, SS
9. Christian Vazquez, C
While it was thought right field would be a spot up for grabs between Mookie Betts and Shane Victorino, manager John Farrell said early in camp that, if healthy, Victorino will be his starting right fielder while Betts and Rusney Castillo compete for center field. It's probably Farrell is doing his best to pump up Victorino's value ahead of a possible trade. Betts profiles as the best option as a leadoff hitter, which leads us to believe he'll start somewhere. If that's in center, that means Castillo ($72 million contract) could open the year getting regular at-bats at Triple-A Pawtucket or he's a fourth outfielder in Boston. No matter the shape of the batting order on Opening Day, eventually the names Castillo and Betts will be in it. The order may change as Castillo and Bogaerts build up at-bats, though it's hard to see which batters in the third through sixth spots get replaced. That's a righty-heavy lineup, so look for Daniel Nava (.293 career against righties) to fill in at first base or one of the corner outfield spots.
Projected Rotation
1. Clay Buchholz
2. Rick Porcello
3. Wade Miley
4. Joe Kelly
5. Justin Masterson
Barring a spring-training acquisition (Cole Hamels, anybody?), the Red Sox are ready to throw out these five guys in some form or fashion to the start the season. The big talk entering training camp is about the lack of an "ace" or "number one starter." That's occupied the chat shows and columns. None of these guys are overpowering, but they do work low and induce groundballs. Given some recent research into the strike zone expanding downward, now is the golden age of the sinker. Buchholz, believe it or not, is the grizzled veteran of the bunch, but we'd be surprised to see him take the ball every fifth day from April to October. Boston has added some organizational depth and may be willing to part with some upper-level prospects for an elite starter.
Closer: Koji Uehara returns for his third season as Boston's closer. He'll turn 40 in April and the Red Sox are cognizant of that fact. Age and shoulder problems will prompt manager John Farrell to monitor Uehara's usage. His spell of ineffectiveness last season, rather than due to his shoulder, has been explained as a back problem that forced Uehara to adjust his delivery - an unlikely positive spin. Other than that six-game stretch from late August to early September (10 ER, 14 H, 4 HR, 3 BS), Uehara was nearly as good in 2014 as he was in 2013. While it's good news that his arm/shoulder were not the culprit, biology remains a factor. On nights when Farrell declares Uehara unavailable, Edward Mujica has been tabbed as the Koji backup.
Key Bullpen Members: Leading up to Koji Uehara, the Red Sox return Edward Mujica and Junichi Tazawa. Mujica started his career in Boston poorly, but was quite effective in the second half of the season, when he posted a 1.78 ERA with six saves. Tazawa authored up a third straight strong season, striking out more than a batter per inning and equally effective against lefties (.241) and righties (.238).
Craig Breslow was brought back after a rough season. His heroic efforts 2013, when he threw deep into the fall for the eventual World Champs, took its toll on the lefty, but the Red Sox viewed his 2014 season as an aberration. He'll be joined in middle relief by Alexi Ogando, a hard-throwing right-hander who is coming off an elbow injury. He was shut down in June last season and opted for rest over surgery.
If Ogando stays healthy, he's a lock. Depending on how many relievers manager John Farrell wants on the roster in April, Robbie Ross, Anthony Varvaro and Brandon Workman are the main contenders for one or two spots. Ross has an edge because he's left-handed, but has minor-league options that Boston can utilize when finalizing its Opening Day roster. He was mostly a starter for Texas in 2014, but got hammered. The Red Sox were drawn to his respectable 2013 season when he pitched exclusively out of the pen. Varvaro, who has been dominant against left-handed hitters (.196 career), might be an option should Ross start at Triple-A. Workman is no longer considered a starter for Boston and will pitch full-time out the pen. He's the long shot of the three, but may be the best suited for long relief.
Notes of Import, Fantasy or Otherwise:
Are these starters enough?
Listen to any talk show or read any beat writer, the number one issue facing the Red Sox this season is the state of its starting rotation. It's the debate that won't go away. The positive spin out of Fenway is that all five projected starters are healthy and teams don't necessarily require an elite No. 1 starter in order to be a playoff team, citing last season's Baltimore Orioles as an example. Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello and Wade Miley will form the top three in some order. The thought of Buchholz "anchoring" any staff is somewhat laughable, given his injury history and inconsistency. Joe Kelly and Justin Masterson will round out the staff. Each has a wart or blemish in some area - whether it be injury history, giving up home runs, low-strikeout rates, or inability to extend deep into games. If Boston needs starting depth, there isn't much in the way of experience at Triple-A. Their top pitching prospects will be there, but collectively only Matt Barnes, who pitched nine September innings last season, have major-league experience.
How will the outfield playing time shake out?
Conventional wisdom suggests that when you pay a guy $72 million, he's going to start. However, manager John Farrell went wisdom-busting when he said a healthy Shane Victorino would be his starting right fielder while Mookie Betts and Rusney Castillo would share the center field position in training camp. Boston has six certifiable players that can start in the outfield - seven if you count Jackie Bradley - but there's some element of uncertainty among the group: Betts and Hanley Ramirez are former infielders in transition, Castillo is entering his first full season playing baseball in America, and Victorino and Allen Craig have injury / performance questions to answer. Only Daniel Nava comes into training camp without any questions attached, though his fate is sealed as a backup. Castillo's spring oblique injury clouds the picture somewhat, but eventually we should see Ramirez, Castillo and Betts from left to right. Sorry, Shane. That's putting the players in the lineup that gives the team its best chance of winning. Craig and Nava are redundant - guys who can play both corner outfield spots while backing up Mike Napoli at first base. The thought is that Boston will move Craig or Victorino at some point, but each needs to rehabilitate his value during spring training. Nava's left-handedness makes him useful in a right-heavy lineup.
Which of the top prospects is likely to make an impact in 2015 - Blake Swihart or Henry Owens?
Neither prospect has much experience at Triple-A, so in a perfect Red Sox world, both would get a near-full season of exposure at that level. Boston has been burned in recent years by prospects who didn't get much exposure at the upper levels of the minors (Jackie Bradley, Will Middlebrooks, Betts initially). Because Owens doesn't have enough service time, the Red Sox don't need to add him to the 40-man roster until after this season. It's more likely that Steven Wright or Matt Barnes get a call-up if a starter is needed for one spin through the rotation. If Boston needs someone more permanent, they may trade for an experienced starter. Swihart is probably more likely to get the call. He's already on the 40-man and he's the next catching prospect in line. But unless he forces the issue, any call to the majors probably wouldn't come until later in the season. The Red Sox have added veteran backup Humberto Quintero, who has 471 games of experience in the majors.
Strengths:
This year's lineup should be better at scoring runs. Boston has bettered itself offensively at three positions, making for a deeper batting order. The free-agent additions of Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval coupled with a full year of Rusney Castillo are clear improvements. While Xander Bogaerts had a horrible summer slump, his rebound in September augurs well.
Weaknesses:
The discussion of weaknesses begins and ends with starting pitching. The Red Sox purged themselves of Jon Lester, Jake Peavy and John Lackey last season, leaving them to rely on several untested Triple-A prospects that were largely overmatched by major-league hitters. A rotation overhaul in the offseason leaves a few questions, including depth in the system. Boston still has some starting prospects in the pipeline, but Henry Owens, Brian Johnson and Eduardo Rodriguez are not yet ready. While they wait on them, the Red Sox will try to get by with a mixture of non-elite MLB veterans. Clay Buchholz, owner of a 5.34 ERA last year, is the elder statesman. Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Joe Kelly and Justin Masterson fill out the rotation. Kelly has never thrown more than 124 innings in a season and Masterson is coming off a string of injuries.
Rising: Mookie Betts - Betts had a few stints with Boston in 2014. The performance in his first stint was similar to Boston's other young players - Jackie Bradley, Will Middlebrooks and Xander Bogaerts - all of whom struggled. It was a tough haul initially for Betts, a 21-year-old facing big-league pitchers for the first time while learning a new position. When he returned to Boston in August, he was a more comfortable hitter. The plate approach and patience he exhibited in the minors was back and Betts was given the leadoff role. He enters 2015 more comfortable in the outfield and the team's best option as a leadoff hitter. Still, with Shane Victorino (back) around, Betts isn't guaranteed an Opening Day spot in the starting lineup.
Declining:Dustin Pedroia - Annual injuries have hampered Pedroia's production the last few seasons. He's had a foot injury and separate injuries to a thumb and a wrist. He's a gamer and will play through the injuries, but they've impacted his power numbers and offensive impact - his slugging and OPS have dropped each season since 2011. Pedroia still plays gold-glove defense and is a team leader, so he'll be in the lineup daily.
Sleeper: Rick Porcello - Porcello's coming off his best season in 2014, his first sub-4 ERA and a career-high in innings pitched. Entering his age-26 season, Porcello is viewed as the most likely candidate to emerge from Boston's pack of No. 3 starters as the staff leader.
Supersleeper: Matt Barnes - The Red Sox dealt away a lot of starting pitching depth in the offseason. While Henry Owens is the minor-league pitcher who gets all the headlines, he's not yet on the 40-man roster. If Boston needs to reach down to Triple-A, Barnes, who got a taste of the majors last season, could be first on the list. Additionally, his mid-to-high 90s fastball could be useful in shorter stints out of Boston's bullpen.
Top Prospects:
Blake Swihart, C -- Swihart began the 2014 season, his second full season as a catcher, at Double-A Portland after being named the organization's Defensive Player of the Year at High-A Salem in 2013. He continued his development as a backstop, including throwing out 47 percent of would-be base-stealers while consistently recording 1.8-to-1.9 second pop times on throws to second base. After a few years of working on the defensive side of the job, Swihart is now showing much more with his hit tool. He never went more than two starts without a hit and increased his power, hitting 12 homers and slugging a career-high .487 for the Sea Dogs. He also had a stretch at Triple-A Pawtucket where there was some noticeable drop-off, but nothing that was too concerning. With Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts having graduated to Boston, Swihart becomes Boston's top position prospect. He'll open the season at Pawtucket, with a full time arrival to the major leagues anticipated in 2016.
Henry Owens, LHP -- Owens entered the 2014 season ranked as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, and he did nothing to diminish his status. He immediately made an impression when he pitched a rain-shortened, six-inning no hitter in his first start of the season. Owens dominated the Double-A Eastern League, striking out more than a batter per inning and limiting opponents to a .201 average. He has a recurring problem with wildness, but those bouts are fewer these days and he reduced his walk rate over the course of the season. The lefty made his Triple-A debut in August, tossing 6.2 shutout innings, but overall the hitters at the advanced level challenged him. The Red Sox don't have to add him to the 40-man roster until after the season, so they won't be rushing him to the majors in 2015, unless he forces the issue. To do that, he'll need to become more consistent, particularly with his fastball command.
Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP -- Rodriguez entered the 2014 season ranked as a top prospect in the Orioles' organization, so expectations were high when he was Double-A Bowie's Opening Day starter. However, the smooth lefty was roughed up early on and he suffered a sprained knee that kept him out until late May. He had some spotty success after his return, but issued too many walks overall and wasn't getting deep into games. His fortunes changed when he was dealt to Boston for left-handed reliever Andrew Miller. Rodriguez credited advice from Double-A Portland's pitching coach, Bob Kipper, for his strong finish. Kipper encouraged Rodriguez to use his changeup and slider to both sides of the plate as well as administering some mechanical adjustments. The end result was a 3-1 record with a microscopic 0.96 ERA and 39 strikeouts in 37.1 innings. The Red Sox may have gotten the steal of the trade deadline, landing a potential ace for a three-month rental on a reliever. Rodriguez should open the 2015 season at Triple-A Pawtucket, where he finished up the 2014 season, pitching one game in the playoffs.
Manuel Margot, OF -- Margot, a 19-year-old with five-tool potential, showed some promise in 2014, beginning at Low-A Greenville before an August promotion to High-A Salem. He's a blend of power and speed with advanced defense in center field. For Greenville, his bat developed over the year and he finished the year hitting .446/.492/.696 for the Drive in August. From 2013 to 2014, he increased his walk rate from 8.3% to 10.1% while dropping his strikeout rate from 18.5% to 11.5%. He's clearly improving his approach at the plate. Margot is also a threat on the base paths, stealing a system-high 42 bases in 2014, though he needs to a better job reading pitchers. He'll likely be assigned to High-A Salem of the Carolina League, where he will be one of the younger players in 2015.
Rafael Devers, 3B -- Devers, considered the jewel of Boston's international free-agent signings in 2013, spent his first full year in the Boston organization in 2014, using his advanced hitting skills to tear up the Dominican Summer League and the Gulf Coast League. He slashed .322/.404/.506 with seven homers in 302 plate appearances. The Red Sox are quite pleased with his plate approach and ability to hit to all fields. They also saw improved defense from Devers, a solidly built 18-year-old who will remain at third base for the time being. He may add more bulk as he matures, something that could reduce his lateral quickness and necessitate a move to first base or left field. Look for Devers to make the progression to short-season Lowell with the potential to reach Low-A Greenville in the second half of 2015.
