This article is part of our MLB Team Previews series.
The 2014 Orioles took advantage of an unusually weak AL East and advanced to its first ALCS since 1997 after making the playoffs for the second time in three years. The team's 96 wins were tied for second in MLB. Duplicating this success will certainly be a challenge in 2015.
Move after move paid off with big dividends. Nelson Cruz proved to be the prior offseason's best signing, though the Orioles must be kicking themselves for not inking him to a multi-year deal. Adam Jones and Nick Markakis were as reliable as normal. Part-time players Steve Pearce and Delmon Young made good contributions. Jonathan Schoop did not hit for average, but his pop made up for it. The rotation was not scary outside of Chris Tillman, but it did its job. Although Tommy Hunter lost the closer's job early, Zach Britton stepped into the role nicely and Darren O'Day and Andrew Miller served as a great supporting cast.
All the success came despite getting just 26 games out of Matt Wieters (Tommy John surgery) and losing Manny Machado (sprained knee ligament) for half the season. Chris Davis failed to live up to his breakout 2013 and then was suspended for 25 games in September for using prescription Adderall without an exemption. There was no return on the Ubaldo Jimenez investment as he went from Opening Day starter to losing his rotation spot and being left off the postseason roster. And then there was J.J. Hardy's power outage that lasted all season.
When it comes to what the Orioles do right, the fantasy stats do not tell the full story. The team is excellent defensively. And manager Buck Showalter plays his lineup card with near perfection, platooning players based on handedness and historical matchups.
The Orioles lost some critical pieces in the offseason. Cruz, Miller, and the long-tenured Markakis will be playing for other teams in 2015. The biggest blows may still be to come. For a team that does not shell out big money to free agents, 11 players have no team control beyond the upcoming season. If the Orioles compete, they could go all in for one big run. If they falter, management is sure to sell at the deadline.
Offseason Moves
The Orioles' front office did not make a splash this offseason, losing out on most every free agent target. You know your team was quiet when the only significant acquisition was Travis Snider. The reason why the Orioles were so quiet is because an astounding 11 players will enter free agency after the 2015 season. Of those, the big-ticket items are Chris Davis and Matt Wieters. The team may allow Bud Norris and Steve Pearce to earn their ways to extensions. Tommy Hunter, Alejandro De Aza, Wei-Yin Chen and Darren O'Day are certainly on the list of other players the team would like to keep. Meanwhile, extensions to Chris Tillman and Manny Machado will also be a priority.
Lost Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz to free agency, traded for Travis Snider, re-signed Delmon Young
These losses are sure to sting. The losses of Markakis and Cruz will yield at-bats to Steve Pearce, Travis Snider, Alejandro De Aza and Delmon Young.
Keep in mind, Pearce went from nearly being waived in May to being a big producer. Pearce's raw power turned into 21 homers in just 383 plate appearances, and he posted steady numbers in the second half (.265/.362/.543) following a first half that was fueled by an excellent June (.361/.432/.667). There is enough swing and miss in Pearce's game (20.0% K%) to bank on an average much closer to his .255 career mark than the .293 he delivered last season, but he's always shown a good eye at the plate (9.8% BB%), and he wasn't overmatched by right-handed pitching.
It has been a very bumpy ride for Snider, as he is now on his third team since being a consensus top-10 prospect in baseball prior to the 2009 season. He could not be going to a better situation, with plenty of playing time up for grabs and no Gregory Polanco blocking his path. Snider hit 13 home runs with a .264/.338/.438 slash line in 359 plate appearances last season for the Pirates, so there could be some value here.
The Orioles acquired De Aza prior to the waiver trade deadline at the end of August, using him as their primary left fielder against right-handed pitching down the stretch. With an opportunity to hit in the first two spots in the Baltimore lineup, De Aza's value ticked up following the trade, and he also showed more consistent power in September than he did throughout the year. For the season, De Aza showed on-base skills against righties that were more in line with his pre-2013 numbers, but there was nothing in his profile that suggests he'll be able to replicate the 17-homer campaign that he had with the White Sox in 2013. On the more favorable side of a platoon, De Aza's value may hinge entirely on whether he's able to carve out a place as a table setter. He has the most speed of all Orioles outfield options.
Young's days as an everyday player at the big league level appear to be over, as the Orioles used him as part of a rotation with their DH spot and in left field. The results at the plate were actually favorable, as Young posted his highest wOBA (.345) since 2010 with the Twins. Unfortunately, Young has shown nothing in the way of developing plate discipline, and defensively, he's an emergency option in the outfield at best. It should be noted though that his 2014 splits were better against righties, defying his career norm of being much better against southpaws (career: .302/.338/.467). Young will likely handle a similar role for the Orioles in 2015 after re-signing with Baltimore in January.
Lost Andrew Miller to free agency
In the bullpen, the Orioles turned to Miller in five of seven postseason games after he allowed three runs and struck out 34 in 20 innings following a deadline acquisition. The loss of Miller will allow Darren O'Day to return to his setup role. Even with a bullpen in flux, O'Day couldn't really grab hold of the closer role, with limited chances in April and May, but he remains an incredible eighth-inning force. The ratios are enough to intrigue the AL-only leaguers, but the state of the game actually makes his 26.9% strikeout rate somewhat mediocre, and the fact that he's unlikely to ever grab hold of the ninth-inning job eliminates any reason to hold him in mixed leagues.
Selected Logan Verrett in the Rule 5 Draft, traded for Rule 5 draftee Jason Garcia
The Orioles are well known for Rule 5 success, keeping Ryan Flaherty, T.J. McFarland and Michael Almanzar the previous three years. This year there will be not one, but two selections in camp as the Orioles selected Logan Verrett from the Mets and traded for Jason Garcia, a Red Sox farmhand who had been selected earlier in the draft by the Astros. Each of the two is going to be a given a chance to earn a spot in the bullpen this spring, but the Orioles almost certainly will have to return one of them to their previous team.
Verrett topped out with a full season at Triple-A in 2014. He has a lite strikeout rate at 6.61 per nine innings. Verrett's WHIP went from 1.14 at Double-A in 2013 to 1.37 last year.
Garcia is a true wild card who might have closer's stuff, but he has not pitched above Low-A and is just 21-years-old. He struck out 14-of-18 Orioles, including Chris Davis, in an instructional league game last fall. That was what drew the Orioles to go out and get him.
Projected Lineup
1. LF/RF Alejandro De Aza
2. 3B Manny Machado
3. CF Adam Jones
4. 1B Chris Davis
5. C Matt Wieters
6. DH/RF Steve Pearce
7. SS J.J. Hardy
8. RF Travis Snider / DH/LF Delmon Young
9. 2B Jonathan Schoop
Machado, Jones, Davis and Wieters should lock into those spots in the order. The remaining spots may all be up for grabs. De Aza offers the most speed and figures to occupy the leadoff spot. The outside-the-box idea would be to use players with the best OBP as the leadoff hitter, which could involve Pearce, or perhaps Snider. The final four spots in the batting order should consist of the players seen slotted above, though spots in the order could be earned.
Projected Rotation
1. Chris Tillman
2. Wei-Yin Chen
3. Bud Norris
4/5. Kevin Gausman/Ubaldo Jimenez/Miguel Gonzalez
The top three starters should be set. The question now is whether to set Gausman free right out of the gate, stick to the four year commitment to Jimenez, or take advantage of Gonzalez's sizzling second half of 2014 into the new season.
Tillman substantially improved his fastball command from mid-June on, spurring a 0.7 HR/9 and 2.38 ERA in his final 21 starts. Though he's seemingly been around forever, 2014 was just his second full season as a major leaguer, and this is still a growth profile. If he could pump the strikeouts up some, Tillman could become a force in all formats.
Chen enjoyed a superb win-loss record that is sure to artificially inflate his price at the draft table in 2015. His 4.5% walk rate was 12th best among 87 qualified starters, but he paired it with a strikeout rate that ranked 61st. His hit and home run rates suggest the 4.00ish ERAs from 2012-13 are where his skill set still lies.
While we all know that his 15-8 record isn't an indicator of his raw talent, it will still earn Norris a spot in the rotation to start season, especially since he achieved the mark with a run of dominance that helped catapult the O's as they ran away with the division. He had a 4.41 ERA through his first 11 starts with a 4-5 record, but then reeled off a 3.12 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 3.1 K/BB ratio with an 11-3 record in his final 17 starts. His slider took a big step forward and drove this newfound success, but he also refined his changeup to help him stop lefties, who have been a nemesis throughout his career.
Gausman has a potent four-pitch arsenal, but he needs to learn to trust his changeup more and refine the slider so he isn't relying on his fastball nearly 70 percent of the time. Of course when you average 96 mph with your heater, it's easy to lean on that pitch as much as Gausman did. He is still learning to pitch, though, and he showed flashes of putting it all together, especially down the stretch with a 3.45 ERA and 3.0 K/BB ratio in his final 10 starts. There is frontline potential here, but it won't necessarily all come at once.
At 31-years-old with nearly 1,400 career innings under his belt, it's time to stop expecting any substantial skills change from Jimenez, namely with regard to his elevated walk rates. That makes it difficult to project even a 2013 repeat at any point, and let's not pretend that was all that good as it still included a 1.33 WHIP.
A case like Gonzalez is where you will get in trouble if you just follow the ERA. His 3.23 ERA in 159 innings served both the Orioles and fantasy leaguers well in 2014, but it is hanging by a thread. He had a reliever-esque 85.5% LOB rate, his strikeout rate has dipped yearly, and his home run rate is on the way up as a flyball pitcher in a park that punishes the profile. That all adds up to severe regression with a repeat of the skills paired with a normal LOB rate, and Gonzalez had baseball's best mark among starters with 150+ innings, and it would've been 16th-best among relievers.
Closer:Zach Britton - Britton has always had filthy stuff which earned him plenty of prospect attention, but he simply couldn't command it with any regularity as a starter. The foundation of a remarkably elite groundball rate was still there, though, and it resulted in a boatload of success for the left-hander. There is enough skepticism about Britton that you shouldn't have to pay full price for the ERA and WHIP from last year, but owning him offers some potential upside. Don't rule out more strikeouts to compensate for a BABIP drop.
Key Bullpen Members:Darren O'Day (see Andrew Miller free agency above), Tommy Hunter and Brian Matusz are the key guys to set the table for Britton.
Tommy Hunter has routinely been thrashed by lefties and allowed too many homers. The first two months of 2014 were no different, but he added ineffectiveness against righties to the mix. To his credit, he completely turned his season around once he was removed from the ninth inning, posting a 1.83 ERA in his final 41 appearances as he dominated both lefties and righties while allowing just one home run.
There are flaws in Matusz's game, including his flyball tendencies in a park that bolsters right-handed power, and his struggles against righties overall (.275/.351/.525). Perhaps something clicked in the second half, as Matusz held the opposition to a .192/.344/.346 line over 19 innings after the All-Star break.
Notes of Import, Fantasy and Otherwise
Who is the most likely outfield sleeper to emerge in 2015?
The most likely scenario heading into spring training is that Travis Snider will get the every day in right field to replace Nick Markakis. Alejandro De Aza should handle the left-handed split at minimum while starting in left field, leaving Steve Pearce for facing left-handers and starts at DH. Delmon Young should get an opportunity to his left-handed pitchers and he and Pearce would occupy the left field and DH positions. But there is still a lot of battle to be done. David Lough will also hope to find playing time, while Nolan Reimold, Henry Urrutia and Dariel Alvarez will hope to make an impact during the season.
Chris Davis and Matt Wieters will play in a contract year. Aside from Adam Jones, these players figure to offer the most fantasy value. Who will produce the most value offensively?
Davis was one of the largest disappointments in fantasy baseball during the 2014 season, and he failed to get back on track after suffering an oblique injury in late-April. To make matters worse, Davis was suspended for taking Adderall without renewing his Therapeutic Use Exemption, but he will have a waiver for 2015. Davis can still hit 30-plus home runs in his sleep, offering a reasonable floor even if he's unable to return to his 2013 level again. In this day and age, it is OK to live with the strikeouts in exchange for big power numbers.
What began as a bit of forearm soreness for Wieters in April turned into a serious elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery on June 17. The expectation is that Wieters will be a go for spring training, and while the sample size from 2014 is small, the elbow issue didn't sap his power (career-high .192 ISO), and both his contact (84.6%) and swinging-strike rates (7.7%) both improved. He did benefit from a .329 BABIP, so the .305 average should be taken with a grain of salt, but Wieters is a proven home-run commodity and will make for a strong bounce-back candidate, assuming the elbow holds up during Grapefruit League play.
Jones remains one of the most consistent players in baseball, parlaying his tools into a sixth straight year of five-category production. While he has always been able to produce without drawing walks, Jones took fewer free passes than ever in 2014 (2.8% BB%). Fortunately, he didn't show any change in his strikeout rate, fanning at a 19.5% clip compared to a 19.4% career mark. Perhaps of some concern, Jones had a .709 OPS against right-handed pitching in 2014, but he offset that slide by demolishing left-handed pitching to the tune of a 1.003 mark. Even if he's unable to return to his pre-2014 norms against righties, Jones' durability and placement in the heart of the Baltimore lineup should make his decline a gradual one.
What is the deal with Steve Pearce? Is he for real?
At age 31, Pearce finally received his first prolonged opportunity as a near-everyday player for the Orioles. (Several advanced stats discussed above in free agency section.) It is still tough to believe he was hours from becoming a Blue Jay until an injury allowed the Orioles to get creative in an effort to keep him. There is every reason to believe Pearce can get every day at-bats this year. Twenty home runs are not too much to ask, but his average is a good bet to come down from .293 in 2014.
Dylan Bundy is a full year removed from Tommy John surgery. What is his outlook in 2015?
Bundy was able to make nine rehab starts in the low minors down the stretch before getting shut down in August after straining a lat muscle in his throwing shoulder. At times, the young righty was brilliant and on other days he struggled in his rehab outings, but those numbers are fairly irrelevant to his long-term outlook. The Orioles will find a spot for Bundy in the major league rotation this season, but it's not abundantly clear when or for how long, as he pitched 105.1 innings in his first professional season in 2012, and obviously hasn't approached that level since. He will surely be on an innings limit, but the Orioles will start him in the minors and will probably hold him back early to conserve his innings for later. A mid-summer arrival seems like a decent bet.
Strengths
Power. The team led MLB in home runs. The loss of Nelson Cruz will hurt in that category, but Chris Davis and Adam Jones remain. Defense is also a highlight, though that does not translate to fantasy success. On the pitching side, only Chris Tillman is a game changer in the rotation at this point. Zach Britton, Darren O'Day and Tommy Hunter constitute an above-average bullpen.
Weaknesses
Speed. The Orioles were last in MLB with 44 steals and the team might have even less speed in 2015. Alejandro De Aza is the only source of consisten steals, but it is not even a given that he will play every day. Offensive depth is also a concern. It did not help that Wieters and Manny Machado missed a lot of time, but Ryan Flaherty and Caleb Joseph were below average alternatives.
Rising:Jonathan Schoop - 2014 was an interesting year for Schoop. He homered on 16 occasions, which were three more times than he walked on the year. The homers were Schoop's only redeeming fantasy value as he did not run, did not drive in many runs and was a batting average drag. Only three everyday players had a lower batting average than Schoop, and no other player had a worse on-base percentage. For these reasons, Schoop is not going to work well in leagues with advanced stats. However, Schoop was just 22-years-old last year and he has plenty of room to grow.
Declining:J.J. Hardy - Following a three-year stretch where he averaged more than 25 home runs annually, Hardy's 2014 power outage came as a big surprise. Although he didn't become more aggressive at the plate, Hardy's swinging-strike rate jumped to a career-high 7.3% and he became much less proficient at making contact on pitches outside the strike zone (63.6% contact rate on pitches outside the zone). A variety of injuries throughout the season may have been the culprit for his disappointing season, as back spasms, a hamstring strain, and a sprained thumb limited his contributions. Hardy is a bounce-back candidate, but this could also be the beginning of his decline.
Sleeper:Travis Snider - The Pirates turned back to Snider when Gregory Polanco struggled and the husky outfielder slashed .299/.368/.529 in 193 plate appearances from July 12 to season's end. An improvement in plate discipline helped. He lowered his strikeout rate to 18.7% (his previous best in the majors was 24.8% in 2010 with Toronto). Another part of Snider's problem establishing himself has been his inability to stay healthy -- a chronic hamstring dogs him every season. Snider seems like the favorite to see the most at-bats in a situation where he competes with Steve Pearce, Alejandro De Aza and Delmon Young for three spots.
Supersleeper:Dariel Alvarez - There is a lot to like about the unheralded Alvarez, besides his arm which already grades as the best in the organization for a position player. Alvarez torched Double-A with 14 home runs and a slash of .309/.332/.487 before being promoted to Triple-A. At the higher level, his home runs turned into doubles as he hit just one home run in 44 games. While his power projects as average at best in MLB, Alvarez is a very good contact hitter who had a 90% contact rate at Double-A and an 84% contact rate at Triple-A. He may get his chance sometime in 2015.
Top Prospects:
Dylan Bundy, P - "See Notes of Import" above.
Hunter Harvey, P - There are two major bullet points attached to Harvey's 2014 season. The first is that he was awesome, and pitched himself into the discussion of best young arms in the minor leagues. The second is that he was shut down in late July with a strained flexor mass in his throwing elbow. Baltimore is confident Harvey will avoid surgery, but in addition to preventing the 6-foot-3 righty from possibly getting a taste of High-A before the end of the season, it also leaves a slight cloud hanging over his 2015 outlook. In 87.2 innings at Low-A Delmarva, Harvey posted a 106:33 K:BB ratio and a 3.18 ERA. Assuming he enters camp rested and healthy, Harvey could rise like a rocket through the Orioles' system. If his changeup can develop into a useful complement to his already plus fastball/curveball combo, Harvey is someone with the ability to finish the year as the No. 1 pitching prospect in baseball.
Chance Sisco, C - Sisco spent the entire 2014 season at Low-A Delmarva, playing 74 games at catcher and 40 games at DH. It is not uncommon for a minor league team to play catching prospects at DH once or twice a week, but in Sisco's case, a lot of his value hinges on him sticking behind the dish. He only threw out 20 percent of would-be basestealers, so he will need to improve upon that as he moves up to High-A. Sisco's second half at the plate really put him on the prospect radar, as he slashed .361/.424/.456 in 66 games. However, he slashed just .267/.362/.344 in 90 at-bats against southpaws on the season, and if he's not adding value on defense, and doesn't improve upon those splits, he will need to make the big leagues as the strong side of a DH platoon, which means he really has to hit.
Christian Walker, OF/1B - The 23-year-old first baseman got his first taste of the big leagues in 2014, thanks in large part to Chris Davis getting suspended for the final two weeks of the season after testing positive for amphetamines. He started the season at Double-A Bowie, and certainly deserved a promotion after slashing .301/.367/.516 with 20 home runs in 411 plate appearances, but under normal circumstances he may not have gotten another promotion so soon after slashing .259/.335/.428 in just 44 games at Triple-A. With Davis eligible to open the season at first base, and Steve Pearce presumably assured of a spot on the Opening Day roster, Walker will likely spend most of 2015 at Triple-A attempting to build off his power outburst in 2014. There are very few first-base prospects that are as close to contributing as Walker, but if he were to be given a full-time role due to a trade or an injury to Davis or Pearce, he would profile as a second division player, at best.
