This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
Okay, I'm afraid I'm going to date myself. I actually had the poster pictured below hanging in my room. It was a different time. It was a different time for baseball, too. Starting pitchers generally finished what they started. It wasn't unusual for the best to toss more than 300 innings, and I don't remember ever counting pitches. It was rare to see someone hit triple digits on a radar gun. But then, pitchers were trained (and expected) to pitch. Sure, injuries happened, but routinely missing a year or two wasn't a forgone conclusion. Maybe we need to look back and see if there is anything to learn?
My poster names three pitchers – Mitch Keller, George Kirby and Justin Steele. This trio is a collection of arms who have recently graduated to my top level of interest. I typically label a pitcher as "of interest" then "monitor closely" followed by "higher potential" then "breakout candidate" and finally "primary target" for future drafts. I would note that well over half the pitchers I watch have none of these labels attached. That means they are not currently on my radar, having failed to show me anything of real interest. It doesn't mean they won't, it just means they haven't displayed any (or very many) of the key things I look for in a pitcher who's likely to find success over the long term. That's a somewhat simplified rating system, but I hope you get the idea. You can also
Okay, I'm afraid I'm going to date myself. I actually had the poster pictured below hanging in my room. It was a different time. It was a different time for baseball, too. Starting pitchers generally finished what they started. It wasn't unusual for the best to toss more than 300 innings, and I don't remember ever counting pitches. It was rare to see someone hit triple digits on a radar gun. But then, pitchers were trained (and expected) to pitch. Sure, injuries happened, but routinely missing a year or two wasn't a forgone conclusion. Maybe we need to look back and see if there is anything to learn?
My poster names three pitchers – Mitch Keller, George Kirby and Justin Steele. This trio is a collection of arms who have recently graduated to my top level of interest. I typically label a pitcher as "of interest" then "monitor closely" followed by "higher potential" then "breakout candidate" and finally "primary target" for future drafts. I would note that well over half the pitchers I watch have none of these labels attached. That means they are not currently on my radar, having failed to show me anything of real interest. It doesn't mean they won't, it just means they haven't displayed any (or very many) of the key things I look for in a pitcher who's likely to find success over the long term. That's a somewhat simplified rating system, but I hope you get the idea. You can also assign a numerical rating similar to the scouting rating. Under 50, little or no interest; 50ish, of interest; 50 to 55, monitor closely; 55 to 60 higher potential; 60ish, breakout candidate; and above 60, primary target, but there are other non-stuff related factors added in. Mound presence and consistent command, for example.
So, without further adieu, let's keep on truckin' and see who might be next. Just be careful, there have been a lot of bad pitchers putting up unsustainable numbers these days. I won't try to say I fully understand the massive inconsistencies.
These guys might be close to establishing themselves at a new level
Luis Castillo (Mariners) – Castillo is the odds-on choice to be the next pitcher to add his name to the poster. He's actually someone I would consider naming as my No. 1 target in a draft, even though his 2023 peripherals have been something of a mixed bag. A 1.02 WHIP with a 2.73 ERA is not something I would typically call a "mixed bag," but I feel like we're just seeing the edge of his ceiling. The Mariners have been a huge disappointment (for me) leading to just four wins at this point in the season for Castillo, and I'm pretty confident the second half could be something to look forward to. There just aren't any holes here. He has a very lively mid 90s fastball with quality off speed stuff. He throws his whole repertoire for strikes in any count, and he usually gets ahead in the count. I just wish I could convince his owners he needs to be dealt.
Kodai Senga (Mets) – I would really have liked to include him on the graduate list, and I firmly believe that day is coming, but Senga is not quite there yet. It's all about control – or at least mostly about it. He has started 13 games for the Mets, and he has walked four or more hitters in seven of those outings and he is averaging more than five walks per nine innings. Obviously, his pitch count suffers so he doesn't get as deep into games. That is improving (he's pitched at least six innings in four of his last six starts) meaning his signature pitch is making more hitters talk to themselves. That signature pitch is a genuine disappearing forkball – a pitch you very rarely see – and he uses it often to keep batters swinging at air. He has an exceptionally wide range repertoire, and that forkball is just the gravy. As his control continues to improve, his strikeout rate (already 11.0/9) and overall effectiveness is likely to follow.
Sonny Gray (Twins) – I continue to like what I see with Gray, albeit I would like to see him throw more strikes to cut down on his 3.7/9 walk rate. However, he's a groundball pitcher and has kept the ball in the park (just two homeruns allowed in 81 innings), which has really limited the damage. He also displays one other major attribute. His advanced mound presence/intensity – a bad pitch isn't something he frets over – coupled with a young team loaded with both enthusiasm and talent gives him the makeup of a pitcher you can probably count on (as long as he stays healthy) over the long haul. I actually think rust from a long run of injuries could be contributing to his control issues.
MacKenzie Gore (Nationals) – The best thing about authoring a column is you get to populate lists like this. I freely admit to being biased and a huge, longtime Gore fan. He probably isn't quite ready for this ranking, but if you don't buy the best early, the price only goes up. At his best, Gore has a full repertoire of above average offerings he will throw in any count or situation. His problem is the light switch hasn't been clicked on yet. How many of you have heard, "throw strikes early and get ahead in the count" to give yourself the best chance of success. Hey, it's true, and Gore sometimes still forgets. He can get behind in the counts, maybe walk a couple, allow a stolen base, and give up a bloop hit before serving up a center cut meatball. The frustrating part is he might then fill up the strike zone and cruise through a few innings. It's right there folks, and one day, hopefully soon, he's going to realize how good he can be. Get on the train now.
Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:
- Here's one more name that could be considered for inclusion on the next step club list. Chicago's Dylan Cease still loses his release point way too often, but when he's good, he's very good. Last year, sparkling lines seemed to be coming closer and closer together, but he desperately needs to get more consistent.
- The Diamondbacks, led by Zac Gallen, have taken a team-wide step forward on the mound. I think a big part of that can be attributed to pitching coach, Brent Strom. Everywhere he goes the pitching gets better, and fantasy owners should not underestimate the impact of a coaching staff change like that.
- The long-awaited return of Minnesota's Kenta Maeda might finally be on the horizon, and I think we could see him this week. He has missed all of 2023 following a biceps strain, but his work over four rehab starts has been solid. There will be workload restrictions, but he could potentially help a fantasy team.
- I haven't kept track, but my starting pitchers have an ugly first inning ERA. Just the other day, the Cardinals' Jack Flaherty was knocked around for three runs on five hits by the anemic Nationals. And, it could have been worse if not for a great throw by Lars Nootbaar to get the last out of the inning at third base.
- Just when you think the craziness is subsiding, somebody throws you a nasty curveball. In this case the culprit is Lance Lynn of the White Sox. Last weekend he struck out 16 Mariners! He still lost the game, but by allowing just three runs over seven innings, he did drop his season ERA to a glistening 6.51.
- I really wanted to list Miami's Eury Perez on the graduate list, or at least on the near graduation list, but I restrained myself. He has been spectacular, posting a microscopic 1.54 ERA, but he's just 20-years-old and has just 41 MLB innings under his belt. He's at the top of my Kid's list, but an innings limit is a worry.
Endgame Odyssey:
Likely to be one of the more popular bullpen juggling trends this week could be fantasy owners jumping on the bandwagon of Cardinals' fireballer, Jordan Hicks. With closer Ryan Helsley on the injured list, Hicks showed off that huge arm, collecting dominant saves on three consecutive days. I have been talking up Jhoan Duran as the long term closer in Minnesota, and he appears to have locked down that role. He has been virtually untouchable, averaging 102 mph – you read that right, averaging – with his fastball. The Rangers have been hot, and a big reason for that has been the exemplary work of closer Will Smith. Earlier in the year their bullpen was somewhat unsettled, but no more. He's the guy. Detroit is not a very good team, and Alex Lange's composite peripherals aren't overwhelming, but I think he is getting comfortable in his ninth-inning role. The ninth inning has been transitional for much of the year for the Yankees. Their best closer candidate, Clay Holmes, was their first choice, then he struggled and lost the job, but now appears to have taken the gig back.
We're nearly halfway through the 2023 season, so I thought next week might be a good time to check on my home league pitching staff. I just need to work up the courage I'll need to look that closely at an ugly first half.
