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MLB Best Bets Today: Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red Sox
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The Kansas City Royals take on the Boston Red Sox today to start a key three-game series between these two American League Wild Card hopefuls. The Royals come into this series red-hot, ranking second in the league with a 15-8 record in the last 30 days. They are just 5-4 at home in that span but are 36-22 at home this season. They are also 28-29 against teams with winning records this season. The Red Sox are 2.5 games back of the Royals in the Wild Card race right now at 59-51. They are much better on the road this season at 32-23 but they aren't very good against teams with winning records (28-36). They are just 11-12 in the last 30 days and that includes going 4-7 on the road. They have won two straight series but those are the only two series they have won since the All-Star break. These two teams matched up right before the All-Star break at Fenway Park. The Red Sox ended up winning two of the three games between these teams. The Red Sox will be looking to make up some crucial games in the Wild Card standings while the Royals will be looking to extend their lead and hopefully inch closer to the Guardians' lead in the division race.
Brady Singer is getting the start for the Royals. He has been straight-up dominant this season. He is 8-6 with a 2.88 ERA in 22 starts this season and is 4-2 with a 2.09 ERA in his last seven starts. He has also been fantastic at home, going 6-3 with a 2.20 ERA in 12 starts this season. He has pitched three straight seven-inning quality starts and has allowed more than three runs just one time in his last nine starts overall. Of course, the team he had his bad start against was the Red Sox, but that was on the road. Now he knows how not to attack these Red Sox hitters and can make some adjustments from that start. He allowed four runs in 2.2 innings pitched with one walk and three strikeouts in that start. It was also the last game before the All-Star break, though, so he was likely pulled early because the Royals were able to run through their bullpen. I wouldn't be surprised if his mind was elsewhere with the break the next day. James Paxton is making his second start for the Red Sox after being designated for assignment by the Dodgers. He allowed six runs and three earned runs in 4.1 innings pitched in his return to the Red Sox. He has shown flashes of his potential this season, but he has struggled lately with a 5.50 ERA in four July starts. He has not faced the Royals yet this season.
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The Royals haven't been hitting lefties very well lately. They rank 23rd in the league in wOBA against lefties in the last 30 days. However, we did see them put up five runs against Tarik Skubal last series, so it's not like they are unable to hit lefties. The Red Sox have the best wOBA in the league against righties in the last 30 days, so they have been hitting pretty well. However, those runs haven't resulted in too many wins. As mentioned earlier, they are still under .500 in the last 30 days even with hitting righties so well. The main reason for that is because of a bullpen ranked second-worst in the league with a 6.35 ERA in the last 30 days. Granted, a lot of that is from their road trip to Coors Field but they also haven't been pitching too well overall. They did make some trade deadline acquisitions to bolster their bullpen, as did the Royals. The Royals' bullpen ranks eighth in the league in bullpen ERA in the last 30 days. They added key pieces in Lucas Erceg and Hunter Harvey. However, I think the Royals stay hot now especially because they are back at home.
BEST BET
Royals ML -140 vs. Red Sox (DraftKings Sportsbook)
