This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Playoff Bets: Expert MLB Picks and Player Props for Tuesday, October 18
Last Article's Record: 1-5 -3.3 units
Season Record: 207-193-5 +23.37 units
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Cleveland Guardians 
at New York Yankees 
We get a huge Game 5 matchup this afternoon with Aaron Civale vs. Nestor Cortes. I have seen people referencing Civale's season-long ERA or his starts against the Yankees and I do not think they have a lot of merit. If you look at his 2nd half stats, his ERA is 3.00 and 0.86 WHIP since July 8th. Also, there is a good chance he is going a maximum of three innings today and his 1st time through the lineup data is significantly better (.200 BAA, 0.88 WHIP, 28% K, 4% BB) than his other splits.
The Guardians' bullpen has a huge edge in this game as they are fully rested and are just much better than the Yankees. Cortes did not pitch well in Game 2 with two earned runs in 5.0 innings, but just 3 strikeouts, 3 walks, and 6 hits (10 flyballs, 7 ground balls). 3 out of the 4 games in the series have gone UNDER 7 runs and I will take that again today.
MLB Best Bets for Guardians at Yankees
- Guardians ML for 1 RW buck (DraftKings +145)
- Guardians/Yankees UNDER 7 runs for 1.15 RW buck (DraftKings -115)
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Philadelphia Phillies 
at San Diego Padres 
Well, this is NOT what everyone expected to be the NLCS, but the Phillies and Padres pulled off tremendous upsets and now face each other for the right to go to the World Series. Zack Wheeler does have some significant home/road splits with a 1.85 ERA at home vs. a 3.84 ERA on the road. Yu Darvish also has better home/road splits with a 2.60 ERA vs. 3.50 ERA. The Phillies are just .500 in Wheeler starts on the road, whereas the Padres are 21-9 in Darvish's last 30 home starts. The UNDER is 10-4 in the last 14 home starts for Darvish.
MLB Best Bets for Phillies at Padres
- Yu Darvish OVER 5.5 strikeouts for 1 RW buck (FanDuel +104)
- Padres -126 for 1 RW buck (FanDuel -126)
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MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Guardians Moneyline (+145)
- Guardians/Yankees UNDER 7 runs (-115)
- Yu Darvish OVER 5.5 strikeouts for 1 RW buck (FanDuel +104)
- Padres -126 for 1 RW buck (FanDuel -126)
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